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With the development of the banking sector in the world and having an important share in the financial system, the importance of bank returns is increasing. In the banking sector, stocks are also among the financial assets preferred by investors. The aim of this study is to investigate the long-term relationship between banking indices of BRICS and MINT countries with similar macroeconomic indicators, exchange rates and selected macroeconomic indicators by using ARDL and NARDL methods. In order to achieve this aim, monthly data of the variables for the January 2013 - May 2023 periods were used. According to the results obtained from the ARDL and NARDL methods, it has been determined that there is a long-term relationship between the variables in Turkey, Brazil, India and Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the effect of real effective exchange rate on the data of manufacturing industry export and import, which is obtained by classifying the products according to technology density, is being investigated. It is aimed at determining the effect of real effective exchange rate on import and export of high, medium-high, medium-low and low-technology product groups in the current study, within which the work of quarterly data for the period 1996-2018, for Turkey is taken into account. In accordance with this purpose, in order to determine the relationship between the related variables, Johansen cointegration within the scope of VAR analysis, Toda-Yamamoto causality test, effect response function and variance decomposition methods were used. According to the findings of the analysis when real effective rates and shocks compared in terms of exports high-tech products are more sensitive when compared to other technology products, in terms of imports high technology products are more sensitive to low technology products. Moreover, except for the medium-low technology level, it is observed that the exchange rate elasticity of imports increases as the technology level of the products increases. Therefore, it can be said that the effect of real effective exchange rate on manufacturing foreign trade varies according to technology density for Turkey. According to the Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis, no causal link between the real effective exchange rate and export was found in any of the export models, while the causality relationship between the exchange rate and the import in import models was determined at all technology levels except medium-high technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Service sector, which are among the sectors with the highest employment in developed and developing countries, contribute to the national economy at a high level. Expectations of consumers regarding service sector are determined by measuring the service confidence index and this index is calculated on a monthly basis. In this context; this study investigated the causal relationships between BİST service index, service revenues, service producer price index, service sector foreign direct investments, dollar and euro exchange rates and service confidence index for the period 2011: 12-2023: 03. This causality relationship was analyzed with Toda Yamamoto causality test. According to the results of the research, it was determined that there is a bilateral causality relationship between service sector confidence index and service revenues. Accordingly, it can be said that while service revenues are the cause of service trust index, service trust index is also the cause of the service revenues. It has been concluded that euro exchange rate, the dollar exchange rate and direct investments in service sector are unilaterally affected by service confidence index and the service confidence index is the reason for these. It has been determined that BİST service sector affects the service confidence index unilaterally and that the BİST service sector is the cause of the service sector confidence index. It is thought that this study will contribute to the literature due to the limited number of studies on the service confidence index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to investigate whether the effect of macroeconomic factors on insurance premium production in Turkey is asymmetrical. Accordingly, the short- and long-term asymmetric effects of positive and negative shocks in credit default swap, export, import, dollar exchange rate, and unemployment on total insurance premium production have been examined for the period of 2011:Q1-2022:Q2 with the non-linear ARDL approach. As a result of the analysis, it has been concluded that the credit default swap has asymmetric effects on the total insurance premium production in the long-term, positive and negative shocks in imports and unemployment both in the long- and short-term have asymmetric effects on total insurance premium production, and they affect the total premium production in unequal diverse ways. Besides, it has been concluded in the study that the increase in the risk premium and the dollar exchange rate affects the total insurance premium production in the right direction in the long-term, the decrease in the risk premium affects in the opposite direction in both short- and long-term, the increase and/or decrease in the foreign trade volume affects the total premium production in the right direction and the increase and/or decrease in unemployment affects the total premium production in the opposite direction in both terms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to support the decisions of investors and contribute to the literature by analyzing whether the Central bank policy rate decisions in Türkiye influence the BIST 100 and USD/TL rates. Within the scope of the study, daily BIST 100 index and USD/TL rate closing values covering the date range 2015-2022 were used. ARCH-LM test and EGARCH) model were used in the analyses. Policy rate decisions were evaluated in three categories as "increase", "decrease" and "fixed". As a result of the study, in terms of BIST 100 (BIST100) index; It has been determined that the coefficients of the variables representing the policy rate cut and increase are significant at the 1% and 5% significance level. According to these results, it was seen that the BIST 100 index was affected by the policy rate hike and reduction decisions, but not by the decisions to keep it constant. When the variance equation in the study is examined, it is seen that negative shocks are more effective than positive shocks on BIST 100. In terms of the USD/TL rate index, which is also discussed in the same study; It has been seen that the coefficients of the variables representing policy rate decisions are not statistically significant. Accordingly, it has been concluded that the USD/TL index is not affected by the policy rate hikes, reductions and remaining constant decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to examine the long-term relationship between external debt service payments, external debt stock and exchange rate on the gross domestic product by using the annual data of 1994-2020 in Türkiye, with Johansen cointegration analysis. In the study, firstly, the stationarity levels of the variables were tested with PP and ADF unit root tests, and then FMOLS, DOLS and CCR coefficient estimators were used depending on the long-term relationship determination. Findings from DOLS, FMOLS and CCR coefficient estimators show that external debt stock and exchange rate have a negative or decreasing relationship with GDP and a positive or increasing relationship with external debt service payment. In this direction, it has been determined that while the foreign debt service payment has a positive effect on the Turkish economy, the increase in the external debt stock and exchange rate has a negative effect on the same economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the transition to the flexible exchange rate system was achieved and the effect of exchange rate volatility on macroeconomic factors has been the subject of many studies. Under these conditions, modelling volatility, determining exchange rate volatility and stock market index volatility and volatility spillovers are important for market actors. In this context, the aim of the study is to examine the interaction between exchange rate volatility and stock market index volatility between 2002-2021 in Turkey. In the study, US dollar volatility data and Euro volatility data are used as exchange rate variables, and BIST100, BISTHIZ, BISTSINAI indices volatility data are used as stock market variables. The stationarity of the data set used in the study is examined with ADF unit root test and Lee-Strazicich unit root test. TodaYamamoto Model is used to determine the causality relationship between exchange rate volatility and stock market index volatility. Then, with variance decomposition tests, it is determined how much of the change in the variables is caused by itself and how much is caused by other variables. Finally, the response of the variables used in the research to unit shocks is examined by impulse-response tests. According to the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, it is concluded that there is a two-way causality relationship in terms of all index variables and exchange rate volatility variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the changes in macroeconomic factors affect the country's economies, companies and investors, estimating the direction of the said change is important for the decisions to be taken by the relevant parties. In the study, it was aimed to examine the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables before and during COVID-19. For this purpose, the relationship between gold (ONS) prices, BIST100 Index, CDS premiums, exchange rates and interest rates, whose daily data can be accessed between 6 February 2018 and 3 March 2022, was examined by Vector Autoregression Model (VAR)/Granger causality analysis. In the light of the findings, before COVID-19; A one-way causality relationship has been determined from BIST100 Index to interest rates, from exchange rates to BIST100 Index and CDS premiums. In the COVID-19 period, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between exchange rates and BIST100 Index and CDS premiums, and a unidirectional causality relationship from interest rates to BIST100 index and CDS premiums. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The monetary transmission mechanism shows through which channels and to what extent the monetary policy implemented by the central banks affects the production level and inflation. Fundamentally, the monetary transmission mechanism, which operates through the traditional interest rate channel and includes the exchange rate, credit, asset prices and expectations channels over time, is a rather difficult and complex structure to understand. In order for central banks to implement an effective monetary policy and to determine the appropriate set of tools within the framework of this policy, it is important to understand this complex structure in the best way possible. In this study, the functioning of the channels of interest rate, credit, exchange rate and asset prices, which are among the channels of monetary transmission mechanism, and which of these channels are more effective in the period 2007:10-2022:06 in Turkey, were examined using the Diebold-Yılmaz (2012) Spillover Analysis method. Analysis findings show that the effect of the credit channel on production and the exchange rate channel on inflation is greater. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to improve current account deficit, exchange rate policy has been frequently used by policymakers. Therefore, the effect of exchange rate on exports has been well-studied in literature. This paper aims to estimate real exchange rate elasticities of export outcomes (unit value, quantity, and value) using six-digit HS product level data for Turkey and selected countries. Our results show that price elasticity of exports is low, but quantity elasticity is high in most selected countries. This indicates that the exchange rate is affected by export amount. On the other hand, these results vary among different sub-sectors and destination country groups. These findings imply that exchange rate policy should be cautiously designed to avoid unexpected consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the effect of globalization, it is observed that the interaction between the markets of different countries has increased, so the markets and assets are affected by each other on the basis of countries. According to the Modern Portfolio Theory, which was brought to the literature by Harry Markowitz in 1952, it becomes possible to avoid unsystematic risks by investing in different financial assets through diversification. In order to make diversification, it is important to determine the relationships between financial assets. In this study, it is aimed to investigate the existence of volatility spillover between Dollar/TL exchange rate, WTI oil price and selected Borsa Istanbul (BIST) sector indices, and to determine and interpret this effect if there is an interaction. For this purpose, Dollar/TL exchange rate, oil price and daily closing prices of selected Borsa İstanbul (BIST) sector indices (XMESY, XUSIN, XTEKS, XTRZM, XULAS, XGIDA and XU100) between 01.02.2015 and 28.02.2022 were used. According to the results of the DCC-GARCH model used to determine the volatility spillover, while no volatility spillover was detected between WTI oil and XMESY index, it was determined that there was a reciprocal volatility spillover between oil price and other sector indices. Also, one-way from USD/TL exchange rate to BIST Textile & Leather Index and BIST Transportation Index; It was concluded that there is a mutual volatility spillover with BIST Metal Products and Machinery Index, BIST Industrial Index, BIST Tourism Index, BIST Food, Beverage Index and BIST100 index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The output gap is an important monetary policy tool in evaluating demanddriven pressures on inflation. The study aims to estimate the deficit in Türkiye between the years 2006-2022, the past period of inflation, and the effect of the dollar exchange rate change on inflation as two sub-periods. In this context, it is thought to contribute to the literature as it is an original study. Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) was preferred as the method in econometric analysis. The econometric model is divided into two as the single-digit inflation period and the double-digit period. According to the results of the variance decomposition for the period 2006:1-2016:4, a significant part of the total change in inflation is explained by the output gap, dollar exchange rate, and past inflation, respectively. According to the variance decomposition results for the 2017:1-2022:2 period, a significant part of the total change in inflation is explained by the dollar exchange rate, output gap, and past inflation, respectively. According to the results of the Impact-Response analysis, the effect of past inflation on current inflation indicates inflation inertia. According to the results of the analysis, monetary policy and fiscal policy should act together to slow down the warming caused by the output gap in the economy. In the fight against inflation, it is important to re-establish the confidence factor of the central bank in order to break the inflation inertia. Policies aimed at increasing productivity and protecting the value of the lira play a critical role in reducing the exchange rate pass-through in inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The diversity and size of export for countries are important for many reasons. Exports, which have an impact on economies both directly and indirectly, allow companies to grow and increase their competitiveness. Increasing the competitiveness of the companies by increasing their market shares means that the countries are strengthened in the international arena. The aim of the study is to determine the factors affecting the export performance of the first 81 Large Industrial Enterprises operating in Bursa and to reveal which factor is more important in exports. The data of 81 companies (exports, number of employees, net sales) and the dollar rate for the period 2006-2019 were used in the study. As a result of the regression model estimated with the panel data econometrics approach; It has been determined that both the company's data and the exchange rate variable have a positive and significant effect on the exports of the firms. The determination of the individual dimensional model as the appropriate model in the study shows that the directly unobservable effects specific to the firms are important in the exports of the firms. In the study, it was concluded that the most important effect on the export performance of firms is the dollar exchange rate. In other words, the change in the exchange rate is more effective on exports than the change in firm-specific variables. As a result, an increase in the dollar exchange rate by 1%, raises firms' average exports by about 4%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the 2008 global financial crisis has radically changed monetary policies, it is seen that the Taylor Rule still has a wide place in practice. The aim of this study is to examine the reaction function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey with the Extended Taylor Rule model for two sub-periods. In this way, it is determined how sensitive the monetary policy in Turkey has changed in the post-crisis period to which macroeconomic variables. For this purpose, monetary policy for the period 2011:04-2019:07 was modeled with the extended Taylor Rule and estimated with the linear Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method. In the analysis, it is divided into two sub-periods according to the CBRT presidents. The period between 2011:04-2016:03 represents Erdem Basci, and the period between 2016:04-2019:07 represents the Murat Cetinkaya period. The data used in the econometric analysis are the CBRT weighted average funding cost, inflation rate, industrial production index and USD/TL exchange rate. According to the impulse response analysis, the main findings are that the CBRT reacts increasingly to a shock in the exchange rate in both periods and does not react to a shock in the industrial production index. The severity of the shocks is different in the two periods. In the Cetinkaya period, the interest rate reacted more severely to the fluctuations in the exchange rate compared to the Basci period. Variance decomposition also supports this result. In the Cetinkaya period, the share of the exchange rate in the variance of the interest rate is higher. As a result, the reaction function reacts differently to different variables in both sub-periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the two main dynamics of inflation, defined as demand-pull and cost-push inflation, are analyzed for the Turkish economy. Based on the fact that this basic dynamic in inflation may vary, the empirical structure of the study was created by taking into account the structural break in inflation. According to the empirical findings, it was concluded that the dynamics of inflation changed with the structural break in inflation. In terms of the Turkish economy, while demand-pull inflation was observed in the pre-structural break period when the domestic currency was appreciated. Cost-push inflation was more effective in the post-structural break period when the domestic currency was relatively depreciated due to the pass-through effect. Empirical findings show that after the structural break in inflation, a structural process was experienced in the Turkish economy in which money supply did not cause inflation. As it is known, the transfer of wealth from the lower income group to the higher income group accelerates during periods of high inflation. The insufficiency of effective demand, which decreases with the deepening of income inequality, also provides evidence for the fact that the money supply is not inflationary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to analyze the main determinants of carry trade activity for Turkey, England and the USA in the periods when global risk perception is high and low. From the results of TVAR model, we concluded that interest rate differential is the main factor behind carry trade activity in the periods when global risk perception is high and low. We found that exchange rate uncertainty is an element that leads to giving up carry trade activity in the period when global risk perception is high while it doesn't have any significant effect in the period when global risk perception is low in Turkey and England. However, we determined that investors in the USA continue to carry trade activity although exchange rate uncertainty rises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to econometrically investigate the determinants of inflation in the Turkish economy. In the study that analyses the period of 2006-2021, the effect of exchange rate, interest rate, real money supply, budget deficit and current account deficit on the inflation rate was estimated under three different time series techniques: Stepwise regression model, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. According to the findings, the exchange rate has a positive effect on the inflation rate in both the short and long-run. The change in real money supply affects negatively inflation in both periods. Interest rate has a positive effect on the inflation rate. However, this effect is marginally low. Although the budget deficit affects inflation in the short-run, it is not a determinant on inflation in the long-run. In the study, strong findings that the current account deficit is determinant on inflation were not obtained. In terms of the variables discussed in the period of 2006-2021, the most statistically effective factor on inflation in the long run in the Turkish economy is the changes in the exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 'Mortgage Crisis' that started in the USA in 2007 soon affected the whole world economy in 2008. As a result of the crisis in the country's economies, the collapse in the financial markets and the developments in the digital environment, the first crypto currency, Bitcoin, came to the fore in 2009. Today, it has attracted attention in terms of having a high market value, lack of a central management system, anonymity and many advantages, and it has always been a matter of debate whether it is a rival to traditional investment instruments. For this reason, studies have been carried out by researchers using different approaches and methods related to Bitcoin. In this study, the relationship between Bitcoin price and the stock market indices of 22 Emerging Market Economies was examined by panel data analysis method with monthly data covering the period 03/2012 - 10/2021 by adding the variables of inflation rate, exchange rate, gold price and oil price. The main purpose of this study is to determine the size and direction of the relationship between Bitcoin price and the stock market indices of Emerging Market Economies and other important variables. In addition, in this study, it is aimed to determine whether Bitcoin is an alternative to traditional investment instruments. As a result of the tests applied, a statistically significant relationship was found between Bitcoin and stock market indices and other variables in some Emerging Market Economies countries and it was concluded that Bitcoin is an alternative investment tool for those countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Export is very important for developed and developing countries to maintain their growth and stability. One of the factors affecting exports the most is currency fluctuations. In the study, panel data analysis is carried out with the annual data of Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania and Turkey, which are candidate countries for the European Union, for the period 2006-2020, considering the important relationship between these exports and currency fluctuations. The financial and export situations of the candidate countries to the European Union are taken into account. Mean group estimator (AMG) analysis was performed. According to the findings obtained from the analysis, it was concluded that the exchange rate increases in US dollars in North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey and the gross domestic product in Montenegro and Serbia positively affected the export of goods and services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the liberalization of capital movements after 1980, many countries have transitioned to a floating exchange rate regime. The floating exchange rate regime has increased the ability of central banks to determine independent monetary policy. In this context, monetary policies for inflation targeting started to be implemented by the central banks of the countries. The increase in exchange rates as a result of the monetary policies implemented created an upward pressure on inflation. This situation is defined as the 'Pass-Through Effect' in the economics literature. In this study, firstly, information about the Transition Effect is given and then the results of the literature review on the studies on how the change in the exchange rate in Turkey affects producer and consumer prices are shown. Then, in order to determine the effect of the exchange rate on producer and consumer prices in Turkey, using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI) and Nominal Exchange Rate (NDK) data, 228 monthly data covering the period from 2003 January to 2021 December were used. Analysis was done on the VAR model. According to the results, it has been observed that the NDK and CPI and PPI variables act together in the long run, and there is a causal relationship from NDK to CPI and PPI in the short run, and from CPI and PPI to NDK in the long run. In addition, it has been determined that there is a causal relationship from NDK to PPI in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of the exportation costs are sunk and those sunk-costs generates hysteresis in the export decisions of the firms. Firm-level observed hysteresis in the export behavior may lead to deterioration in the exchange rate export relation at macro-level. In this study, at the first stage using micro data existence of sunk-cost investigated by studying the exportation decision of the Turkish manufacturing firms. Estimation results show that exporting firms are exposed to high sunk costs. In order to examine the possible impacts of the hysteresis caused by sunk costs on the real exchange rate-export relationship at the sector level the Preisach approach is employed. The results indicate that the hysteresis behavior of the firms caused by sunk costs limits the sensitivity of exports to real exchange rate changes in Turkish manufacturing sectors excluding textile, wearing, tobacco, machinery-equipment and communication tools sub-sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public investment expenditures are the economic policy instrument used by governments. The main objective of economic policy is to increase welfare. One of the important sources of welfare increase is productivity increase. Productivity is used as an explanatory criterion in explaining the differences in welfare levels between countries. For this reason, it is a problem that is sought for a solution today, as it was in the past. There is great interest in the subject due to the increase in the welfare of the country as a result of the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate. This relationship is referred to as the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis (BSH). The aim of the study is to analyze the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis for Turkey. Unlike other studies, the contribution of the study to the literature is the inclusion of public investment expenditures in the relevant model. The ARDL model was used for the period 1994-2020 in the analysis. In the long run, a 1% increase in productivity increases the real effective exchange rate by 1.77%. It is seen that public investment expenditures also have a positive sign in line with expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geopolitical risk emerges as a situation where countries with many developments face significant negative consequences. Geopolitical risks directly and indirectly affect the country's economy. The study aims to examine the effect of geopolitical risks on macroeconomic variables in Turkey using monthly data for the period from 1994 January to 2022 April. The global index calculated by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) was used as an indicator of geopolitical risk. The global geopolitical risk index is based on newspaper articles dealing with geopolitical tensions and adverse geopolitical events that may pose risks. The industrial production index, inflation rate and real effective exchange rate were used as macroeconomic indicators. In this study, which deals with macroeconomic indicators, the expected results can be short-term and long-term. Therefore, it was deemed necessary to examine a causality spread over time. The relationships between the variables were researched with the frequency domain causality test developed by Breitung and Candelon (2009). The results of the analysis show that the inflation rate and the real effective exchange rate are affected by geopolitical risks in the medium and long term. Therefore, it can be said that Turkey has geopolitical risks due to its geographical location and this situation directly affects the economy of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism is recognized as one of the largest industries for national economies worldwide. Tourism is known as a global system that contributes to the realization of various goals of countries such as economic growth, employment and sustainable development. Tourism sector is attracting more attention as one of the few economic sectors that enables especially developing and less developed regions participation in the global economy. Considering the importance of the sector, the main purpose of this research is to examine the innovation variable of the top 10 countries with the highest tourism income in the world according to 2019 data, as well as some variables affecting the tourism sector income in the 2015-2019 period. Within the scope of the research, estimations were made using panel data analysis. According to the findings, it has been revealed that while the real exchange rate variable affects the tourism incomes of the countries examined negatively, the global governance variable has a positive effect on the tourism incomes of these countries. In addition, it was concluded that the global innovation index variable, which is considered as an innovation variable, does not affect the tourism sector incomes of the countries examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Businesses that ensure the functioning of the economy have tried to develop various policies in the axis of the concept of sustainability on issues such as the efficient use of natural resources and the waste problem in industrial production. Within the framework of these policies, the creation of the Sustainability Index in Borsa Istanbul in 2014 contributed to the development of policies in the field of sustainability in Turkey. In this context, the aim of this study is to analyze the effect of the macroeconomic variables selected in the study on the volatility of the BIST Sustainability Index. In the study, Brent oil, the ratio of deposits opened in TL to total deposits and exchange rate variables were used. Brent oil, one of these variables, is included in the study because it is an important input for industrial production. As another variable, it has been added because the change in the ratio of deposits opened in TL to total deposits affects the investment financing costs of the shares valued in the BIST Sustainability Index. Exchange rate is included in the study because it is one of the important variables affecting foreign trade. Data were used weekly between 7.11.2014-13.8.2021. The E-GARCH model was chosen as the econometric model in the study. As a result of the study, it was seen that the Brent oil variable did not affect the BIST Sustainability Index volatility, the exchange rate variable increased the volatility of the index and the interest rate variable decreased the volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of causality and information flow between time series in different fields is an important research topic in the literature and different causality tests have been proposed. The most widely used of these are the Granger, Toda-Yamamoto, and Hatemi-J causality tests. Although these tests reveal whether there is causality between time series and the direction of this causality, they do not measure the degree of causality. Transfer entropy is a new information theory-based method and a non-parametric method that can be used to measure causality and information flow between time series, and it can detect asymmetric and nonlinear information flow between two time series. In this study, the causality and information flow between the BIST100 index and the exchange rate of dollar were analyzed using transfer entropy, and the sliding window method was used to reveal how the information flow changed over time. In order to demonstrate the robustness of the results, the results obtained from three different sized time windows are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of demographic changes on inflation in Turkey. Although there is no direct theoretical explanation about the effects of changes in demographic structure on inflation, studies on the effect of changes in demographic structure on inflation in the national and international literature draw attention. In this study, the effects of demographic structure on inflation in Turkey were investigated by ARDL method. According to the findings of this study covering the years 1971-2020, while the dependent elderly population affects inflation as negatively in the long term, the dependent young population, exchange rate and money supply affect inflation as positively. According to the error correction model, it has been determined that a shock will be eliminated rate of 60% in the short term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, hybrid models, using more than one models together, are presented in the field of time series analysis. One of the most important hybrid model classes is ARIMA-Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) hybrids. ARIMA is a linear model according to its structure, whereas ANN models are quite successful on modeling nonlinear time series. Time series encountered in real life usually carry linear and nonlinear characteristics together, which causes high forecasting performance of ARIMA-ANN hybrid models. In this study, a novel optimization based ARIMA-ANN hybrid model is presented. Proposed Optimized ARIMAANN (OptAA) hybrid model assumes time series is the sum of linear and nonlinear two series. In the first stage of the two staged model, ARIMA and ANN models with real time series pass through a least squares optimization process to obtain linear and nonlinear components. In the second stage, error values of the linear component are transferred to nonlinear component, nonlinear component is revised and remodeled with ANN. To determine the forecasting performance, Wolf's sunspot, Canadian lynx and GBP/USD exchange rate data sets, which are applied often in the literature, are used. Results obtained from the application show that OptAA hybrid model has higher performance than other models especially in relatively short term forecasting and is a very powerful methodology in time series analysis field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, it was investigated whether the Okun misery (economic discomfort) index, as macroeconomic performance criteria, is responsive to exchange rates and consumer loan interest rates. It has been applied with the help of econometric methods that also take into structural breaks in the sample of Turkey for 2005Q1-2020Q4 periods. The fact that no studies are examining the effects of exchange rates and loan interest rates on the index in the literature and that structural breaks are taken into account makes the study distinctive in terms of content and subject. According to the results of both standard unit root tests (ADF, PP and KPSS) and Kapetanios (2005) unit root test with multiple breaks, all series were found stationary at the first difference. The estimation of long-run coefficients and short-run error correction models of the series were obtained by the DOLS method. Cointegration among the series was determined by the Maki (2012) method. The coefficients of both independent variables are positive and statistically significant. In addition, the causality relationship among the series in both the long-run and short-run was determined by the VECM-based method. According to empirical findings, when the Turkish Lira depreciates by 1 unit, the misery index rises by approximately 0.89 points but the misery index rises by 0.10 points when loan interest rates increase by 1 point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of this study is to investigate whether there is an interaction of return and volatility between the exchange rate and the stock market of BRICS countries. In the study, the period 04.01.2004 - 29.12.2019 was analyzed using the VAR-EGARCH model with weekly data. As a result, it has been found that there is an interaction of return and volatility between the exchange rate of each country's stock market and the BRICS countries. For India and China, there is a one-way return interaction between the exchange rate and the stock market, while for Brazil, there is a two-way return interaction between the exchange rate and the stock market. In addition, it is found that there is a two-way volatility interaction between exchange rates and exchanges in Russia, India, China and South African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to this study, which investigated dollarization hysteria in the Turkish economy, there is a symmetrical causality between the dollarization rate and the inflation rate, the exchange rate, and the credit default swap during the periods of 2011: 12 and 2021: 01. While the increase in the interest rate is the cause of the decrease in the dollarization rate, the opposite is not valid. Hence, there is a one-way causality from the interest rate to the dollarization rate. As a result, a decrease in the inflation rate, exchange rate and credit default swap variables reverses dollarization and this means that there is no hysteria effect in the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study aims at the investigation of the pandemic and its effects on the way the exchange rates and global risk influences an emerging stock market. For this purpose, the effects of the active cases and the new cases are utilized in addition to the exchange rates and the VIX index on the BIST100 stock index in Turkey are investigated. By using a sample that covers daily series to starting from 11.3.2020, the day of declaration of the pandemic in Turkey, and that ends at 11.5.2021, the empirical findings obtained from GARCH, GJR, TGARCH, and nonlinear GARCH models suggest significant. According to the empirical findings, the negative and positive news shocks have important effects on the stock market in Turkey. The empirical findinds reveal that in addition to the negative impacts of the Covid-19 cases on the BIST100 daily returns in Turkey, the nominal Dolar/TL exchange rate increases have a strong negative effect on the stock market. Further, empirical findings also point at the negative effects of the inclines in the VIX index, considered as a proxy representing the international financial risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are some tax security measures in the Corporate Tax Law practice in Turkey. One of these tax security institutions, "Thin Capitalization", is regulated in Article 12 of the Corporate Tax Law No. 5520. The aforementioned regulation is based on the principle that the debts borrowed by the institutions from their partners or persons related to the partners, exceeding three times the equity capital of the institution at any time during the accounting period, is not considered as a borrowing, but as a capital that has been put into the institution in disguise. According to this practice, it is not possible to consider the part of the negative exchange rate differences that arise due to the increases in foreign exchange rates, which corresponds to the thin capitalization, as an expense in the determination of corporate earnings, regarding the interests corresponding to the said borrowings, which are accepted as capital, and foreign currency borrowings. In parallel with this, the part of the positive exchange rate differences that arise as a result of the decrease in exchange rates, which corresponds to the thin capitalization, should not be taken into account as foreign exchange profit in determining the corporate income. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the foreign exchange borrowings and exchange differences obtained from partners or related parties in order to meet the financing needs of institutions within the thin capitalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of the study is to investigate the international determinants of inflation in Turkish economy, whose current production and consumption structure is mostly dependent on imported inputs. With this aim, global commodity prices, global food prices, the ratio of broadly defined money supply M3 to GDP and exchange rate variables are used to see the impact of global energy prices and global food prices on domestic prices at the international level for the period 2006:Q1-2020:Q3. Relations between variables is analyzed by means of VAR blok Granger and time-varying causality analysis. The test results reveal that there exists a long-term relationship between inflation and global commodity prices, global food prices, the money supply and the exchange rate. As a result of examining the relationships between variables with the time-varying causality analysis, it is observed that there are bidirectional causalities between inflation and global commodity and food prices, money supply and exchange rate in the 2008:Q4 period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the reasons behind the overpricing of nutrition and the impact of Covid 19 on food product prices are analyzed. Document analysis has been conducted on the secondary sources. A stable increase especially in the summer of 2021 at the prices of food products noticed in the analyses. The study indicates that the main reasons for overpricing of food products are global climate change, increase in input costs, transportation costs, the profit and commission margins of brokers, labor costs, packaging, and taxes. Moreover, along with the rise in inflation and exchange rates, the unethical behaviors of sellers who exploit the Covid 19 pandemic have also an impact on overpricing of food products. It is highlighted in this study that in order to detect the rise in prices of food products accurately and offer precise solutions for it there is a need for pursuing scientific researches periodically on a regional basis. It is also emphasized that besides controlling inflation and the exchange rater and supporting the producers, continuous and prompt controls are necessary in order to struggle with the overpricing of food products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The financial conditions index is an analytical tool designed to summarize the impact of financial conditions on the real economy. In this context, the relationship between the financial conditions index and economic growth for BRICS-T countries was investigated. For this purpose, the effect of the financial conditions index, which includes overnight interest, stocks and real effective exchange rates, on the gross domestic product was examined with the panel data analysis method based on the cross-section dependency in the 1999:M1-2020:M2 period. According to the long-term analysis results obtained for the overall panel, the financial conditions index in BRICS-T countries, except for the real effective exchange rate, indicates that changes in overnight interest rates and stocks have a negative impact on economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic conditions and future expectations of individuals in a country can affect their spending and/or saving attitudes, the reflections of these behavioural patterns on the economy, in other words, the level of confidence in the economy can be measured with the consumer confidence index. In this study, the short- and long-term relationship among consumer confidence index with inflation, exchange rate, unemployment rate, youth unemployment rate, and consumer loan interest was tested with regard to Turkey. To this end, Johansen cointegration analysis was carried out based on seasonally adjusted monthly data for the period 2007-2020, and as a result of the estimation, a cointegration relationship was determined between consumer confidence index and other variables. In addition, it was concluded that deviations from short-term equilibrium would reach long-term equilibrium after approximately 4 months by utilizing an error correction model. In another analysis carried out with respect to consumer confidence, Granger causality was tested, and as a result of the estimation, it was concluded that whereas exchange rate, unemployment rate, youth unemployment rate, inflation rate, and consumer loan did not influence the consumer confidence index in the short term, these variables affected the consumer confidence index in the long term by acting together. Based on the result of this study, it can be underlined that the policies aimed at decreasing exchange rate, unemployment rate, and consumer loan rates will result in effective results to increase consumer confidence index, which reflects the current economic conditions of consumers and their expectations for the future, and even to rise above the 100-threshold value, which has been far behind for a long time. For this reason, it may be suggested to prioritize the policies for improving the aforementioned variables so that resources can be used effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, relationship between non-performing loans and capital adequacy ratios is examined both for banking sector and deposit banks. Analysis period starts with 2005, in which the sector restored to a solid state; and post-2017 period is excluded because several amendments that artificially influences examined indicators took place in those years. Results show that non-performing loans do not have any adverse effect on capital adequacies; and when capital adequacy decreases, non-performing loans tend to increase but this increase did not reach to critical levels. It is possible to say that in the examined period, banking sector operates reliably without any need for concealing underlying problems and today, priority must be given to maintain macroeconomic and exchange rate stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to examine the dynamic relationship between Bitcoin and major foreign exchange rates namely Euro, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Chinese Yuan. In this context, we employ the causalityin- mean and variance test suggested by Hong (2001) to examine the presence of mean and volatility spillover effects between Bitcoin and foreign exchange rates. Also, we use the causality-in-risks test proposed by Hong et al. (2009) to investigate the existence of tail dependence between Bitcoin and foreign exchange rates. By using daily data from August 19, 2011, through August 6, 2021, we find unidirectional Granger causality-in-mean from Euro, Pound, and Dollar to Bitcoin. On the other hand, causality-in-variance test results suggest a bidirectional volatility spillover effect between Bitcoin and Euro and Pound. Also, Yuan and Dollar are found to be Granger cause-in-variance of Bitcoin. Causality-in-risk test results provide evidence in favor of causal link running from Euro and Pound to Bitcoin. In addition, unexpected losses in Bitcoin are the Granger cause of unexpected losses in the Yen. Overall, our empirical analysis results show that the Chinese currency market seems to be less integrated with Bitcoin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The validity of purchasing power parity is among the fields of study that still maintains its importance in the economics literature. In this study, the validity of purchasing power parity was examined by applying the Pesaran (2007) unit root test, using annual data for the period 2008-2020 for 37 OECD countries. According to the results of the analysis, according to the CIPS test results, it is concluded that the purchasing power parity on a panel basis is valid at 1% significance level for OECD countries. On the other hand, according to the Truncated CIPS test results, purchasing power parity is valid only at 10% significance level. According to the CADF unit root test results for the purchasing power parity variable on the basis of OECD countries, purchasing power parity is valid in Austria, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Slovenia and the United Kingdom. There is no statistical evidence that purchasing power parity is valid in other countries. There are many countryspecific factors that prevent purchasing power parity from being valid. Factors such as global and national shocks, policies applied towards exchange rates, interest rates and foreign trade, increase in international risks, deterioration in expectations may limit the validity of purchasing power parity. Collaborative design of international trade policies to increase the welfare of countries can also play an important role in the sustainability of global welfare increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the pass-through effect of oil prices and exchange rate on producer and consumer prices in Turkey was examined by emphasizing the pass-through effect of exchange rate. To this end, the pass-through parameters were estimated using monthly data between January 1985 and December 2018 with the vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) method with time varying parameters. The findings showed that the pass-through of oil prices and exchange rates to producer and consumer prices was not linear but changed over time. Although the pass-through effect in Turkey has decreased compared to previous years, it has shown a tendency to increase again in the recent period under macro prudential policies. This result indicated that inflation dynamics in Turkey are highly sensitive to external factors and inflation persists as a structural problem. In addition, the pass-through effect on producer prices from both oil prices and exchange rates was higher than the pass-through effect on consumer prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations is important in terms of determining the policy stance, credibility and cost of policy actions of central bank which is the implements an inflation targeting regime. In this study, the asymmetric relationship between expected inflation and actual inflation in Turkey was examined with the Nonlinear Aoutoregressive Distrubuted Lag (NARDL) model using monthly data fort he period of 2016 January-2021 March. The findings show that there are both long term and short term asymmetric relationship between expected inflation and actual inflation. According to estimation results, a %1 increase in actual inflation increases inflation expectations by about %0.61, while a %1 decrease in actual inflations reduces expected inflations by %0.64. On the other hand, it is among the findings that a %1 increase in exchange rates increases expected inflations by %0.52. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the effect of macroeconomic variables on stock returns in Borsa Istanbul is examined. XU100, XTUMY, XUMAL, XUHIZ, and XUSIN stock market indices were used as dependent variables; and money supply, interest rates, inflation rates, exchange rate, and confidence indices are used as independent variables. The data set covers the years between 2010 and 2020. In the study in which the least-squares method was used, the relationship between variables was tested in monthly and quarterly periods. According to the findings obtained from the research, it has been determined that (1) there is a positive relationship between money supply and small-cap companies and manufacturing companies, (2) there is a negative relationship between interest rates and large-cap companies and financial companies, (3) there is a positive relationship between composite leading indicator and large companies, small companies and financial companies, and (4) there is a negative relationship between the exchange rate and large-cap companies, financial companies and service companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study used data on the daily 2015-2020 period to examine the relationship between CDS, Borsa Istanbul Index and Turkey's exchange rate. Fort's purpose is to use the unit root tests that allow structural breaks, the cointegration test that allows multiple breaks, and the Toda and Yamamoto causality test. According to unit root tests that allow structural breaks, it is seen that there are statistically significant breaks in the exchange rate and CDS. According to the cointegration test result, it is seen that there is a regime break relationship between the variables. According to the causality test, which is the last analysis, it is seen that the CDS and Borsa Istanbul index affect the exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Credit Default Swap (CDS) premium expresses the risk ratings and investment capability of the countries. Investors who can correctly estimate the CDS premium can transfer their funds to reliable countries and correct sources. In this study, it is aimed to estimate the CDS premium of Turkey by Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method. In the study, “exchange rate”, “credit rating”, “interest rate”, “stock price”, “stock volatility” and “stock return” values were considered as input variables. All data in the study were obtained on a daily basis and covers the period of 2015-2020. As a result of the ANFIS input selection analysis, it was found that the input variables that have the greatest impact on estimating the CDS premium are “exchange rate”, “stock price” and “interest rate”. The ANFIS model was trained with the training dataset containing these input variables, and estimates were obtained for the future CDS premium values for the test data set that the model had never seen before. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that the CDS premium estimation values are quite close to the actual CDS premium values. Therefore, it can be said that the ANFIS model predicts CDS premiums in Turkey quite well. With this study, it is aimed to inform investors and policy developers about the values that CDS premiums can take in the following periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the study, it is investigated whether the effects of shocks to real exchange rates in the fragile eight countries are temporary or permanent by wavelet-based unit root tests. In this context, the time range of the data used covers the period between 1994 January - 2020 August. Firstly, linearity tests are performed on the real exchange rates of the selected countries. Within the framework of the results, the wavelet-based nonlinear FWKSS and WKSS tests are applied to the nonlinear series. The Fourier term is not found to be significant for all countries. Therefore, it is seen that the FWKSS unit root test results cannot be interpreted for all countries. This result shows that the WKSS unit root test should be used for countries. According to the results of the WKSS test, only the real exchange rates of Argentina and South Africa are stationary at 10% significance level, while the others have unit-roots. According to the results, the effects of shocks on the real exchange rate are temporary for Argentina and South Africa. However, the effects of the shock in the real exchange rate are found to be permanent for Brazil, Chile, India, Indonesia, Russia and Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study aims to examine the causal relationship between investor sentiment and financial investment instruments. Economic Confidence Index (EGE) representing investor sentiment, deposits, stocks, exchange rate (dollar/TL and Euro/TL), gold and government domestic debt securities (DIBS) real returns are used as financial investment instruments. Data cover the period 2007-2020 and are monthly frequency. Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012) according to bootstrap causality test findings, the EGE is only the cause of DIBS return. Based on this, it can be said that the EGE is not a leading indicator. Also, causal relationships are found from stock, exchange rate and DIBS returns to the EGE. In addition, the bootstrap causality test, which changes over time based on the rolling windows approach, is applied, based on the idea that there may be changes in causality relationships between variables during the data period. As a result of the evaluations, causal relations between the EGE and the returns of financial investment instruments arise during periods when confidence in the economy follows a negative view. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been a high level of volatility in the exchange rates and interest rates in Turkey. This study analyzes the effects of these two variables on the returns of stocks in different sectors in Borsa İstanbul. Regression analysis was performed in accordance with the random effects and fixed effects models, in which 46-quarter panel data set belonging to 348 shares between 2009 and 2020 were used. The market return control variable was used in the study and the effects of industry-related characteristics on stock returns were analyzed. According to the findings, it is seen that the appreciation (depreciation) of the USDTRY exchange rate has a negative (positive) effect on companies in the banking, leasing, communication, and construction sectors. When the relationship between interest rates and returns of stocks in various sectors is analyzed, it is found that there is no significant relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By applying the model EGARCH between 2017 and 1970. Political Instability and volatility of economic indicators in Turkey were examined. As indicators of political instability; The local elections, general elections, coalition periods, referendum periods, terror lace, strikes, coups and coup attempts, annual figures and puppet variables related to exports, imports and interest-e were used. According to the findings, political instability was found to have a positive effect on the Exchange Rate and a negative effect on the GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the evaluation of the performance of the Sudanese macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, gross domestic product, exchange rate, export, economic growth during the period 2000-2019 using data from the Central Bank of Sudan and the Central Bureau of Statistics, for each observation. The study employed the FTOPSIS method. One of the most important results of the study is the most successful economic performance in the year 2019. It's followed by the second rank in 2016. 2006 is the year with the lowest macroeconomic performance in Sudan. According to the results of the study, there is a direct skip from bottom to top not step by step, for example, the rank of 2008 is 7 while 2007 is 19. The reason for that is economic crises and the civil wars in Sudan. Using same data, TOPSIS is applied to make comparison of the results obtained by two methods. For most year, the ranks of two method have the results, near to its corresponding year, except the years 2000, 2006, 2012 and 2014. This is the first paper using a multi-criteria decision-making approach to assess the success of the Sudanese economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]