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Gözgör, Giray (Dogus Author) Bu çalışmanın amacı döviz kurunun belirlenmesine yönelik mevcut teorileri gözden geçirmek ve elde edilen ampirik bulgular üzerine bir literatür taraması sunmaktır. Çalışmada, ilk Klasik ve Keynesyen yaklaşımlardan başlayarak literatürdeki temel modeller kısaca incelenmiş ve bu modellerin tahmin performanslara ait literatür özellikle gelişmiş ülkeler bakımından ele alınmıştır. Bu bağlamda ele alınan çalışmalarda ampirik olarak çok farklı ekonometrik ve istatistiki yöntemlerin kullanıldığı ve birbirinden çok farklı ampirik bulguların elde edildiği gözlemlenmiştir. Bu çalışmanın uluslararası iktisat ve uluslararası finans literatüründeki ilgili konulara ilgilenen araştırmacılara fayda sağlayabileceği düşünülmektedir. This paper aims to survey the recent literature on the theoretical models of the exchange rate determination and to present a detailed literature review on the empirical findings for the exchange rate predictability. In this study, starting from the early Classical and the Keynesian models, we briefly overview the fundamental approaches in general and to explain the literature on the exchange rate markets in developed economies in particular. In this context, we observe that the related topic is empirically analyzed via various econometric and statistical techniques. There are also various empirical findings, which are different from each other. This paper avails to researchers, who are interested in the related subjects in international economics and international finance.

1970’li yıllardan günümüze kadar geçen süre içerisinde CBS eğitimi ile ilgili birçok araştırma yapılmış olmasına rağmen, ülkemiz dâhil, günümüzde birçok ülkede CBS eğitiminin yüksek öğretim kurumlarında nasıl verilmesi gerektiği ile ilgili boşluk henüz doldurulamamıştır. Günümüzde iş dünyasının, kamu kurumlarının ve üniversitelerin CBS üzerindeki beklentileri tam olarak bilinmemektedir. Farklı yüksek öğretim kurumları ve bu kurumların uygulamış oldukları CBS programları arasında herhangi bir ilişkinin olup olmadığı da araştırmalarla ortaya konmuş değildir. Fakat bu ilişkiyi bilmenin, CBS eğitiminin gelecekte hangi istikamete yöneleceğini tahmin etmede önemli bir yeri vardır. CBS kullanıcıları (müşterileri) ne tip CBS eğitimi almış elamanlar ile çalışmak istemektedirler? Onlar için kısa bir kurs yeterli midir? Yoksa uzun yılları içine alan bir sertifika ya da bir diploma şart mıdır? Bu makalenin amacı, ülkemizdeki CBS eğitimi hakkında bilgi vermek olmayıp, gelişmiş batı ülkelerindeki değişik eğitim kurumlarında verilen CBS eğitimini tanıtıp, bu ülkelerde uygulanan farklı CBS eğitim programlarını özetlemektir., This paper provides a brief overview of GIS education starting from 1970s. There is not a uniform accepted GIS education curricula for any part of GIS education worldwide. Today, each academic institution creates its own curriculum about the subject. Especially in Western world, GIS education has so many different ways of educating the needs of GIS world practitioners starting from K-12 to higher education. These different aplications include short courses and workshops, certificate programs, CBS sertifications, lisansing, GIS diploma (including masters and doctorate degrees). This paper presents past research on GIS education programs and shows how departments and institutions have developed such programs over the past two decades.

Bu çalisma genel anlamda iktisadi entegrasyonu, özel anlamda ise iktisadientegrasyonlarin gelismis ve gelismekte olan ülkelere etkilerini incelemektedir. Çalismaönce iktisadi entegrasyon kavramini teorik ve tarihsel gelisimiyle açiklamis, daha sonragelismislik kistasini baz alarak entegrasyon hareketlerini tanitmaya ve entegrasyonlarinyaratacagi etkileri arastirmaya gayret etmistir. Yöntem olarak teoriyle uygulamanin birarada götürülmesi benimsenmistir. Teorik yaklasimlar genis kapsamli olarak ele alinmisve her bir yaklasim ampirik bulgular, istatistikler, uygulamadan örnekler ve gözlemlerledesteklenmeye çalisilmistir . Genis bir literatür taramasi sonucunda ortaya çikan buçalismada, tümevarim yöntemiyle elde edilen sonuçlara göre, iktisadi entegrasyongelismis ülkelere olumlu etkilerde bulunurken gelismekte olan ülkeler için ayni sonucaulasmak sartlara bagli olmaktadir. Gelismekte olan ülkeler entegrasyonlardan faydasaglayabilmek için makro ekonomik reformlara ve ticaret liberalizasyonuna baglikalmali, ayrica entegrasyon ortagini gelismis ülkelerden seçmelidir. Özetle gelismekteolan ülkelere entegrasyon baglaminda tavsiye edilecek olan Kuzey-Güneyentegrasyonudur. This paper investigates the economic integration generally and the effects ofeconomic integrations on developed and developing countries particularly. In the paper,firstly the content of economic integration with its theoratical and historical progress isexplained, then it is tried to present the existing integration movements under the baseof development criteria and to examine the effects of integrations. As a method, it isadopted to study the theory and practice together. Theoretical approaches areundertaken comprehensively and all of the approaches are tried to be supported byemprical evidences, statistics, examples of practices and observations. In this studywhich came into being after an extensive literature review, according to the resultsobtained by the methodology of induction, economic integration affects the developedcountries positively. However, for developing countries, same results can only beobserved under some circumstances. Developing countries, in order to gain benefitsfrom integrations, should commit themselves to macro economic reforms and tradeliberalization. Moreover, in the context of integration, developing countries shouldchoose their partner among the developed countries. In sum, the advice to thedeveloping countries is to become a member of North-South integrations. 138

This conference paper was presented under the title of Organization and Marketing of Information Services at the ÜNAK'05 Conference held at Istanbul, Kadir Has University between 22-24 September 2005 by the ÜNAK/URLA Association.

ÖZET Petrol şoklarını izleyen dönemde Bretton Woods sisteminin de çöküşünün ardından Dünya'da gözlemlenen yüksek enflasyon ve artan işsizlik olgusu Keynesyen politikaların terk edilmesine yol açarken, bu eğilimin kökeninde para otoritelerinin enflasyonist eğilime sahip olduğu konusunda hem ekonomistler hem de merkez bankacılar arasında görüş birliği oluşmuştur. Artan enflasyon ortamında işsizliğin de yükselmesi para otoritelerini uzun dönemde fiyat istikrarı amacının önemi konusunda hem fikir yaparken ekonomistler ve merkez bankacılar söz konusu enflasyonist eğilimlerin nasıl ortadan kaldırılacağına ve fiyat istikrarının nasıl yakalanacağına yönelmişlerdir. Siyasi otoritenin istekleri ile para politikasının fiyat istikrarı amacı arasındaki çelişki gündeme gelirken, zaman tutarsızlığı probleminin çözümü enflasyonist eğilimlerin yok edilmesi çalışmalarını yönlendirmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı söz konusu çözümlerden bir tanesi olan enflasyon hedefleme stratejisini teorik literatür temellerine dayanarak detaylı olarak inceleyip, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ekonomilerdeki uygulama örneklerinden yola çıkarak Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine uygulaması konusunda tartışmaktır. Fiyat istikrarını nihai amaç olarak belirleyen enflasyon hedeflemesi Yeni Zelanda önderliğinde 1990'ların başından bu yana bir çok ülkede başarı ile uygulanmıştır ve giderek daha çok tartışılmaya başlanmıştır. `Enflasyon Hedeflemesi` sistemi; merkez bankasının nihai hedefi fiyat istikrarı olarak belirlemesinin ardından bu amacın sağlanması ve sürdürülebilmesi için para politikasını belirli bir dönem boyunca seçilen sayısal enflasyon hedefi ya da hedef aralığına dayandırarak ve bunu kamuoyuna açıklayarak uygulamasıdır. Para politikasının, bir ara hedef ya da hedefler seçme zorunluluğu olmadan doğrudan nihai hedefe dayandırıldığı enflasyon hedeflemesi sisteminin enflasyonu kontrol etmeyi amaçlayan diğer sistemlerden temel farkı para politikası araçlarının geçmiş ya da cari enflasyona göre değil, gelecek enflasyona dayandırılması ve gelecekteki enflasyon hakkında rastlantısal varsayımların yapılmamasıdır. Enflasyon hedeflemesi para politikası literatüründe para otoritesinin hem enflasyonist eğilimi yok edecek, hem de kısa dönemli insiyatif kullanımı ile para otoritesinin ekonomik11 şoklara optimal tepkiyi vermesini sağlayacak bir strateji olarak önerilmektedir. Enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulaması hem gelişmiş ekonomilerde hem de gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde uygulanmaya donmuştur ancak, enflasyon hedeflemesinin tüm ülkelerin para politikalarına uygun olduğu iddia edilemez. Bazı ülkelerde ekonomik oluşum ve altyapı yetersizliği nedeni ile enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulamada başarı sağlamayabilir. Etkin olabilecek bir enflasyon hedeflemesi için, siyasi otorite ile para otoritesi konusunda anlaşma, özerkliğini kazanmış bir merkez bankası, gelişmiş mali piyasalar, model kullanmakta oluşturulacak yeterince geriye dönük tarihsel veri tabanı, para politikasının şeffaflığının toplum ve piyasalarla daha fazla bilgi paylaşılması yoluyla artırılması ve para politikası belirleyicilerinin plan ve hedeflerini kamuoyuna açmaları gerekmektedir. özellikle gelişmiş ülkelerde para politikası olarak enflasyonun hedeflenmesi getirdiği şeffaflık ve sorumluluk sonucunda fiyat istikrarı konusunda başarı sağlamıştır. Gelişmiş ülkelerde enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulanırken bazı ortak özelliklerden bahsetmek mümkündür. Enflasyon hedeflemesi gelişmiş ekonomilerde her zaman serbest kur rejimi ile birlikte uygulanmıştır. Bu ülkelerde para otoriteleri tam olmasa da para politikası araçlarını seçmede önemli serbestliğe sahiptirler ve merkez bankaları özerk yapıları sayesinde hükümet bütçesini finanse etmede en az sorumluluğa sahiptirler. Ancak, gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde enflasyon hedeflemesinin uygulanabilirliği halen tartışılmaya devam etmektedir. Gelişmekte olan ülkeleri inceleyen ekonomik analizlerde ilk karşılaşılan genel bulgu bu ülke grubunun birbirleri ile karşılaştırıldığında oldukça heterojen bir yapı göstermeleridir. Enflasyon oranının uzun yıllar %30-40 gibi kronik olarak yüksele kaldığı ekonomilerde nominal değerler yapışkan olurken para politikası çok açık bir şekilde `intibakçı` olarak uygulanmaktadır. Söz konusu koşulları taşıyan ülkelerin enflasyon hedeflemesini uygulayabilmeleri için öncelikle enflasyonu yaratan mali nedenler ortadan kaldırılmalı, sonrasında ise enflasyon daha düşük seviyelere düşürülmelidir. Türkiye ekonomisi 1980'lerin başından itibaren büyük bir değişim sürecineIll girmiştir. Uygulamaya konulan dışa açılma ve serbestleşme hareketlerine bağlı olarak büyümeci bir politika izlemiş ve bu süreç ile beraber kamu kesimi açığı da artan bir trend izlemiştir. Türkiye'de kamu gelirlerini artırmaya yönelik yapısal önlemlerin uygulamaya konulmaması ve köklü vergi reformlarının geciktirilmesi kamu açıklarının finansmanında giderek artan bir şekilde iç ve dış borçlanma ile emisyon artışına gidilmesine neden olmuştur. Ekonomik kalkınma çabalarının başlatılmasından bu yana Türkiye ekonomisinin karşılaştığı sorunların başında kronikleşmiş dış finansman açığının kapatılması gelmektedir. Kamu kesiminin yoğun borçlanma gereği sonucunda menkul kıymet yoluyla iç borçlanmaya gitmesi, Türk f finans piyasalarında borçlanma araçlarının en büyük alıcısını bankalar yapmıştır. Enflasyon hedeflemesi politikalarının uygulanabilmesi için para politikasının etkisini ön plana çıkartabilmek, bunu maliye politikaları tarafından belirlenen bir politika olmaktan çıkartmak ve siyasi karar alıcıların merkez bankasına serbesti imkanı tanıyacak ortamın oluşması için gereken en önemli şart, mali piyasalar üzerindeki mali baskınlığın giderilmesidir. Para politikası olarak enflasyon hedeflemesinin Türkiye'de başarı ile uygulanmasının önündeki en büyük engel hiç kuşkusuz mali baskınlık koşullarıdır. Merkez Bankası'nın özerk bir yapıya sahip kılınması enflasyon hedeflemesi için önemli bir adım olsa da tek başına yeterli değildir. Türkiye'de mali baskınlığın bu derece yoğun olduğu ve buna karşılık mali derinliğin de bu derece düşük olduğu bir ortamda gelişmiş ülkelerde uygulanan şekli ile enflasyon hedefleyen para politikalarının başarı ile uygulanabilmesi kısa vadede olası görünmemektedir. IV SUMMARY The period following the oil crisis and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system the rising inflation and unemployment had resulted in a switch from the Keynesian politics while central bankers and the economists agreed that the roots of the problems was the monetary authority's inflationary bias. While the consensus among the central bankers and the economists was that the object of the monetary policy should be price stability in the long run, the efforts centered on removing the inflationary bias and establishing price stability in return. While the conflict between the political authority and price stability was the main topic of the research, solving the time inconsistency problem was the primary issue in the discussions regarding to the monetary policy literature in eliminating the inflationary bias. The purpose of this study is to evaluate inflation targeting as one of the solutions suggested for the mentioned problem rooting theoretical framework of inflation while discussing the possibility of a successful implementation of the inflation targeting in Turkey depending on its application in some of the developed and emerging economies. Inflation targeting that sets price stability as the main objective of the monetary policy has been firstly implemented in New Zealand at 1990's and since then is being applied in many countries rising the debate over the subject. Inflation targeting can be defined as an official target or a target band for a determined inflation rate and which is announced and committed by the monetary authority to be achieved in a specific time period for a sustainable price stability. The main differentiation of inflation targeting from other monetary policy systems is its forward looking nature instead of taking into account the past inflation data. Inflation targeting strategy is suggested in the monetary policy literature as a strategy for both the elimination of the inflationary bias of the monetary authority and for enabling the monetary policy optimally to react to economic shocks through applying discretionary policies.V Inflation targeting has been implemented in both the developed and the emerging economies yet it can not be argued that inflation targeting is suitable for the monetary policies of each World economy. In some countries country specific economic conditions or the lack of necessary infrastructure may hinder the success of the inflation targeting. For an effective inflation targeting schemes, political institutions which facilitate the agreements upon the political objectives, harmony among the political and monetary authorities, well developed financial markets, an autonomous central bank, a credible estimation of the inflation rate which requires sufficient database, and transparency are necessary. Specifically in developed economies inflation targeting was successful through the transparency and the commitment it brings. In developed economies there are some common features of inflation targeting. Inflation targeting in developed economies was always accompanied by a free floating currency regime, the monetary authorities are very flexible in using the tools to capture the inflation target, and the central banks are almost freed from financing the budget deficits. Yet the applicability of inflation targeting in developing countries is still being discussed. When examining the economies of developing countries, heterogeneity is the first feature that strikes. Thus its is very hard to make any generalizations. The monetary policy is being accommodative in these countries as a result of the sticky inflation that generally floats around 30-40% for long years. For developing economies to implement inflation targeting effectively to sustain price stability, fist the fiscal imbalances that create inflation should be lifted while inflation rate should be pulled down.. Turkey on the other hand, has been engaged in an economic transformation process since 1 980. The liberalization process that has been applied and efforts to open up the economy has resulted in huge budget deficits that created a huge domestic and foreign debt stock with an increase in emission. The banks turned out to be the main buyer of the domestic borrowing papers as the government crowdedVI out the real sector. Yet now, before the inflation targeting is implemented in Turkey the burden of the fiscal dominance should be lifted for success. Thus fiscal dominance stands as the main obstacle to the applicability of inflation targeting in Turkey. The autonomy given to Central Bank of Turkey is an important step yet not enough for an effective inflation targeting. Thus with such an huge fiscal dominance and very shallow financial markets a successful implementation of inflation targeting in Turkey is not possible to be implemented successfully in the very short run. 134

ÖZET 1947 yılında gerçekleştirilen ilk Gümrük Tarifeleri ve Ticaret Genel Anlaşması (GATT) konferansından bu yana, dış ticaretle ilgili korumacı uygulamaların ortadan kaldırılması amacıyla hem GATT bünyesinde, hem de çeşitli ülkeler arasında görüşmeler gerçekleştirilmektedir. GATT bünyesinde gerçekleştirilen görüşmeler sonucunda tarife oranlarında büyük indirimler sağlanmıştır. Ancak bu gelişme korumacı uygulamaların hedeflendiği ölçüde azaldığı anlamına gelmemektedir. Tarife oranlarında indirimler meydana gelirken, tarife dışı engel adı verilen diğer koruma uygulamaları uluslararası ticareti şekillendiren faktörlerden biri olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Tarife dışı engelleri yoğun olarak gelişmiş batı ülkeleri kullanmıştır. Tarife dışı engel uygulamalarında 8. GATT görüşmelerine dek önemli sayılabilecek indirimler sağlanamamıştır. 1970'lerde önem kazanmaya başlayan ve `yeni korumacılık` olarak adlandırılan bu akımın ana özelliği ayrımcı olmasıdır. Ayrımcı kısıtlamalar özellikle emek-yoğun üretim yapısına sahip gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelmiştir. Uzak Doğu Asya ülkeleri bu uygulamalara en fazla maruz kalan ülkeler olurken, tarife dışı engel uygulanan başlıca sektörler tekstil, giyim, tarım, tüketici elektronikleri ve otomobil sektörleri olmuştur. Kotalar, gönüllü ihracat kısıtlamaları, anti-damping uygulamaları, telafi edici önlemler, fark giderici vergiler, ihracat sübvansiyonları ve üretim sübvansiyonları yoğun olarak kullanılan tarife dışı engellerdir. 1986 yılında başlayan 8. GATT Uruguay görüşmeleri, daha önceki görüşmelerden çok daha geniş bir kapsama sahipti. Yedi yıl süren görüşmeler sonucunda dünya ticaretini önemli şekilde etkileyecek anlaşmalar imzalanmıştır. Bu görüşmelerin dört temel sonucu olduğu söylenebilir; (l)Tarım ve tekstil sektörlerinin GATT disiplinine sokulması, (2)GATT kurallarının kapsamının genişlemesi,(3) Yürürlükteki anlaşmaların pazara giriş şartlarının kolaylaştırılmasına yönelik olarak revizyonu ve (4) Anlaşmazlık Çözüm Organı'nın yapısının güçlendirilmesi ve Dünya Ticaret Örgütü nün kurulması. Görüşmeler sonucunda, daha önce yoğun olarak tarife dışı engele maruz kalan sektörlerdeki tarife dışı engel uygulamalarının tedricen ortadan kaldırılması kabul edilmiştir. Öte yandan, çok daha önemli bir gelişme fikri mülkiyet haklan, yatırım engelleri ve hizmetler sektörü ile ilgili ticaretin de GATT disiplinine sokulması olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın ana amacı söz konusu gelişmelerin gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerin ticaret yapılarına olası etkilerini incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda korumacı uygulamaların sebepleri, tarife dışı engellerin ekonomik etkileri ve Uruguay Anlaşmaları çalışmada yer alan diğer konulardır. SUMMARY Beginning from 1947, countries performed several multilateral negotiations( rounds) in order to reduce trade protectionism. The platform of this negotiations was GATT, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. In the GATT 1947 agreement, objectives of this agreement were defined as `raising standards of living, ensuring full employment and a large and steadily growing volume of real income and effective demand, developing the full use of the resources of the world and expanding the production and exchange of goods`. With this agreement countries were obligated `being desirous of contributing to these objectives by entering into reciprocal and mutually advantageous arrangements directed to the substantial reduction of tariffs and other barriers to trade and to the elimination of discriminatory treatment in international commerce`. Elimination of discriminatory treatment is ensured by the most favourite nation (MFN) principle which means that concessions granted to one member of GATT by another member are extended to all other members. In last 50 years, high tariff rates reduced drastically with seven subsequent GATT rounds, especially for industrial items. However, after the mid of 1960's. parallel to tariff reduction, a new protectionist mentality emerged and the instruments of GATT remained ambiguous to prevent this development. The new protectionism has different tools from tariffs which will be discussed later in this paper In international economics theory free trade is mutually beneficial, but in practice protectionism still pervasively exists in some sectors and there are some supporting arguments for protectionism. Some of these arguments are totally negligible and voiced by some domestic interest groups. Others are valid only if some conditions exist. For instance, implementing protectionist practices may not be sufficient to offset the adverse impacts of changes in competitiveness and in patterns of demand. Also, jobs saved in the industries protected may cause jobs lost elsewhere in the economy, it comes to a meaning that protectionism may have a negative effect on total unemployment. In new trade theory, infant industry argument is the rationale for protectionism. Infant industry argument assert that a new industry having a potential comparative advantage must be protected until it realises the scale economies otherwise it can not because of the competition of foreign industries which have already realised scale economies. In other words, protection gives local producers the time to improve their skills in production, management and marketing. Once competitive strength is gained, protection would be eradicated for free trade. However, there are some difficulties to construct such a policy. First of all, it is difficult to identify the industry that deserves protection. If this decision is not taken with objective criteria or sufficient long term planning, the resources of economy will be wasted. Secondly, domestic producers behind the wall of protection would not be in an effort to minimise their costs forforeign competition. Lastly, it is also important to determine which protectionism instrument would be less costly for economy. The New Protectionism The new protectionism has developed with two aspects; the spread of non-tariff barriers and the spread of trade blocks. Clearly, both of them means the violation of non-discrimination principle of GATT. As mentioned above, reductions in tariff rates have tended to make non-tariff barriers more significant as a determinant of trade flows. Non-tariff barriers can be described as all trade restrictions, other than tariffs. Some of them are beyond the border measures such as subsidies and different standards (e.g. healthy, safety, environmental). Pervasive border non-tariff measures are quotas, voluntary export restraints, orderly market arrangements and misuse of anti-dumping and countervailing duties. *o Common use of NTB's is the result of some important developments in world trade. First of all, Europe and Japan carried out a quick catch up process against USA after 1960's. More importantly, after 1960's, some Asian countries (Asian NIC's: Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong) performed high economic growth rates with export oriented strategies. Another important change was the result of increase in the oil prices in the 1970's. OPEC countries became an important markets for developed countries. Therefore the OECD countries faced a dual challenge: to adjust to the greater import competition coming from the more dynamic developing countries; and to seize new export and investment opportunities. In 1960's and 1970's, discriminatory restrictions mostly focused on Japan. Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore,and Brazil. In this period, NTB practices were concentrated on textile, clothing and steel industries. However, import from these countries could be slightly limited because of trade diversion through unrestricted areas. After the 1970's the coverage of NTB's has broadened, extending to relatively unprotected industries such as automobiles, machinery and consumer electronics. At the same time, the number of suppliers affected by NTB's increased. In 1974. Multi- fibre agreement (MFA) which provided a framework for voluntary export restraints to textile products came into force. This agreement prolonged several times until Uruguay Round of GATT. Product categories and countries subject to non-tariff measures were increased by every subsequent MFA. This practices caused a significant change in the production structure of Asian NICs. These countries diverted their resources to capital-intensive industries, which have been relatively less protected. Inl980, share of textile and clothing industry in total export in Asian NIC's was 24 percent, this share declined 17 percent in 1992. However, same percentages for machinery and transportation equipment was, respectively, 22 and 43. After the 1980's, some other Asian countries-Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia- have joined Asian NIC's which have previously performed high economic growth. XIThe core NTB's have been voluntary export restraints, variable charges and anti dumping and countervailing actions. GATT articles remained insufficient to prevent these measures with its blunt structure. Related articles of GATT revised in Uruguay Round which will be discussed below. New protectionism went hand to hand with increasing regional trade arrangements Trade blocks violate the principle of non-discrimination by giving preferential treatment to members of the block but not to outsiders. At the same time, trade blocks regulate their trade affairs with other trading partners on a special base, for example, the EU's preferential treatment of ACP and Eastern Europe Countries. This process which began in 1960's, today, designates the composition of world trade Today, the major trade blocks are AB, NAFTA, APEC, ASEAN and MERCOSUR Their share in world trade in 1996 were, respectively, in percent, 37.4, 18.7, 3.1.5(exc. NAFTA and ASEAN), 6.8 and 1.5. A trade block has two major effect on trade flows. First, trade creating effect among its members. Imports from more efficient non-members are replaced by imports from a member country. This also presents the trade diversion effect of a trade block. Only if trade creation effect exceeds the trade diversion, a trade block, custom unions or free trade areas, contribute to the expansion of world trade. With the eighth round of GATT, GATT agreement was revised in order to prevent the restrictions of new protectionism. GATT Uruguay Round and World Trade Organisation In 1986, eighth GATT round started in Uruguay Punta Del Este. In the Punta Del Este Declaration, the major aims of the round stated as follows; (a) to bring about further liberalisation and expansion of world trade in goods to the benefit of all countries, especially less developed, through improvement of access to markets by reduction and elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers and (b) to strengthen the role of GATT, improve the multilateral trading system and bring about a wider area of world trade in goods under effective multilateral disciplines. Uruguay Round were completed in December 1993 and the agreements under the round came into effect on 1 January 1995. With the round `World Trade Organisation` has established encompassing the GATT. The results of the Uruguay Round can be summarised as follows; Market Access Market access negotiations aimed to eliminate or reduce tariff rates and non-tariff measures applicable to trade in goods. According the commitments(covering tens of thousands of tariff lines) made in this negotiations, it is estimated that the trade weighted average tariffs on developed country industrial imports from all sources should decline to 4 percent, representing a reduction of 38 percent. Considering the low pre-Round levels of tariff rates, reductions in certain tariff lines gain importance, for example in textile related lines. In 1996, the developed country average tariff offered on imports of textile from developing countries at the level of 10 percent XIIaccording to OECD findings. It is two and a half times the tariff rates on industrial imports. Elimination process of non-tariff barriers were decided in the certain Uruguay Agreements which will be discussed below. Agreement on Textile and Clothing The object of this agreement has been to secure the eventual integration of the textiles and clothing sector into the GATT on the basis of strengthened GATT rules and disciplines. Previously, trade in this sector was subject to bilateral quotas negotiated under the Multi-Fibre Agreement (MFA). Textile and Clothing Agreement schedule the integration of the sector into GATT in three phases beginning 1 January 1995 and to be completed by 2005. Integration means that trade in these products will be governed by the general rules of GATT. Agreement on Agriculture The results of the negotiations provide a framework for the long term reform of agriculture trade which was excluded from negotiations in previous GATT rounds. Mainly, the agreement consist of three commitments; market access, domestic support and export subsidies. In the area of market access, non-tariff border measures are replaced by tariffs that provide substantially the same level of protection. Tariffs resulting from this `tarrification` process, as well as other tariffs on agriculture products, are to be reduced by an average 36 percent in the case of developed countries and 24 percent in the case of developing countries, with minimum reductions for each tariff line being required. Least developed countries are not required to reduce their tariffs. Reductions are to be undertaken over six years in the case of developed countries and over ten years in the case of developing countries. Domestic support to agriculture is measured by the term of Total Aggregate Measurement of Support (AMS). The total AMS covers all support provided on either a product-specific or non-product-specific basis that does not qualify for exemptions and is to be reduced by 20 percent during the implementation period in the case of developed countries(13.3 percent in the case of developing countries, no reduction is required for least developed countries). Members are required to reduce the value of direct export subsidies to a level 36 percent below the 1986-1990 base period lever over the six year implementation period, and the quantity of subsidised export by 21 percent over the same period. In the case of developing countries, the reductions are two-thirds those of developed countries over a ten year period. The least developed countries are exempted from requirements. XlllGeneral Agreement on Trade in Services Some decisions of this agreement defines the rules which applies to all members It sets out the general obligations and disciplines. In the agreement four kind of services is described;(l) services supplied by one country to anther, (2) services supplied by the territory of one country to the customers of another(e.g. tourism). (3 Services provided through the presence of service-providing entities of one country in the territory of another(e.g. banking) and (4) services provided by nationals of one country in the territory of another(e.g. construction projects and consultancies) Although m.f.n. obligation is extended to trade in services, it is recognised that m.f.n. treatment may not be possible for every service activity and, therefore. it is envisaged that parties may indicate specific m.f.n. exemptions. Other issues regulated in this agreement are conditions of transparency, technical standards, licence and certificate procedures. Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIP), Including Trade in Counterfeit Goods The agreement strengthen the rules and disciplines about the intellectual property rights and multilateral framework of principles, rules and disciplines dealing with trade in counterfeit goods. The agreement addresses the applicability of basic GATT principles and those of relevant international property agreements; the provision of adequate intellectual property rights; the provision of effective enforcement measures for those rights, multilateral dispute settlement; and transitional arrangements. The agreement requires parties to comply with the substantive provisions of the Berne Convention for the protection of literary and artistic works. Computer programs will be protected as literary works. Data bases should be protected by copyright. In trade marks, the agreement defines what type of signs should be eligible for protection. Industrial designs are also protected under the agreement. Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Investment Measuresf/RIMj The agreement provides that no contracting party shall apply any TRIM inconsistent with articles 3(national treatment) and 11 (prohibition of quantitative restrictions) of the GATT. It provides an illustrative list of TRIMs that infringe those rules. The agreement requires mandatory notification of all non-conforming TRIMs and their elimination within two years for developed countries, within five years for developing countries and within seven years for least-developed countries. Agreement on Safeguards Article XIX of the GATT allows a member to take a `safeguard` action to protect a specific domestic industry from an unforeseen increase of imports of any product which is causing, or which is likely to cause, serious injury to the industry. This article is one of the pretexts of import restriction practices of new protectionism. This agreement provides that restrictions such as voluntary export restraints, orderly market arrangements and other similar practices in effect at the time of entry into XIVforce of the agreement would have to be phased out within four years after the entry into force of the agreement establishing WTO(3 1 December 1999). At the same time, all existing safeguard measures taken under Article XIX of the GATT 1947 shall be terminated not later than eight years after the date on which they were first applied or five years after the date of entry into force of the agreement establishing the WTO, whichever comes later. In principle, safeguard measures have to be applied irrespective of source. The agreement describe the `serious injury` and provides that safeguard measures can be applied only to the extent necessary to prevent or remedy the injury. The duration of safeguards should not exceed four years, though this could be extended to a maximum eight years, subject to confirmation of continued necessity. Agreement on Implementation of Article IV (Anti- Dumping) Article IV of the GATT provides for a member to apply anti-dumping measures, for example measures against imports of a product at export price below its normal value(usually the price of the product in the domestic market of the exporting country). With new agreement procedures of anti-dumping action have been more clearly expressed in order to prevent misuse of this article. Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures This agreement clearly defines the subsidy by using the concept of '`specific subsidy`. Only specific subsides would be subject to the disciplines set out in the agreement. Specific subsidy is a subsidy available only to an enterprise or industry or group of enterprises or industries within the jurisdiction of the authority granting the subsidy. The agreement establishes three categories of subsidies; prohibited, actionable and non-actionable. The agreement also covers the use of countervailing measures against subsidies. Agreement on the Interpretation of Article XXIV (Custom Unions and hive trade Areas) The agreement recognises that the number of regional trade blocks has greatly increased in recent years and notes the contribution they might make to the expansion of world trade. It reaffirms the general principle contained in article XXIV of the GATT that these regional trading agreements should be such that they cover all trade among the constituent territories because the contribution of the expansion o/' world trade is diminished if any major sector of trade is excluded. It stresses that the purpose of such arrangements should be to facilitate trade between the constituent territories and not to raise barriers to trade of other member countries with such territories The agreement clarifies and reinforces the criteria and procedure for the review of new and enlarged regional trade arrangements and for evaluation of their effects on third parties. XVDispute Settlement Body The new agreement on dispute settlement reinforces the power of GATT(WTO) as a panel organ. It is hoped that, this development prevent restrictive measures in trade. A Brief Look To The Consequences Of Round In my thesis, in order to find out the possible effects of Uruguay Round, firstly, 1 analysed the changes in protection structure of countries, especially in OECD countries. In general, there is a significant decline in average tariff rates for all sectors after the round. For the agriculture, there is a significant change in the structure of protection but there is no significant change in the level of protection on certain items The conversion of quantitative restrictions and variable levies into tariffs, in other words tarrification, has changed the structure of protection. On the other hand, this tarrification process largely involves the adoption of specific duties, often combined with quotas, rather than pure add valorem tariffs. In the other sectors, for the traditionally high protected tariff lines, there are some reductions in both tariffs and non-tariff barriers. However, for the short-run. the level of reductions are not in the expected levels. This agreements will change the flow of trade among countries. This will be significant in some sectors. However, there will be no drastic effect on the trade among developed countries. More than sixty percent of OECD trade is within the EU which has its own regulations. This is also true for NAFTA. At the same time, the conflict among these countries relatively in low levels because of the agreements signed before Uruguay Round. It can be said that, this trade will be marginally affected by Uruguay Agreements. In the thesis, I stated these changes. Major effects of Uruguay Round for developed countries will be in the fields which were not previously included to the agenda of GATT. Agreements about intellectual property, trade related investment and services will enlarge the trade volume that is from developed countries to developing countries. For the developing countries, a classification must be made. Countries in transition (East and Central Europe-EEC-, Russia, Caucasus Countries and Middle Asia Countries-NIS), ACP(African, Caribbean and Pacific) countries and Far East Countries will be affected in different extents. MFN tariff reductions will eliminate the preference margins of ACP countries provided by EU with Lome Convention and the GSP's of other least developed countries. This will provide a benefit for relatively wealthy developing countries, mostly for Far East and Latin America countries. Agriculture and textile is two important sectors for ACP countries. Their tropical agriculture and textile export to EU will decline. XVIEU's position is critical for an analyse about EEC countries. These countries signed Association Agreements, which include economic support and custom union, with EU. EU also decided to begin integration meetings with these countries EEC countries will enjoy the preferential trade practices provided by EU, while other developing countries - ACP and Mediterranean- loosing their preferential trade With the liberalisation of world trade with Uruguay Agreements, some issues, which were previously neglected, will remain as the only practices that can affect trade flows. These are social and environmental standards. xvii 170