Search

One of the important factors of decision units and policymakers to develop successful policies is the correct estimation of macroeconomic variables for future periods. Inflation is among these macroeconomic indicators, and to realize successful policies, it is necessary to minimize the real effects and severity of inflation, determine future changes and their effects, and predict inflation reliably. Accurate forecasting of inflation is important both in terms of the policies to be implemented and the investment decisions to be taken by the public and private sectors. In this context, quarterly data were selected for Turkey using the 2008-2023 time period. In the study, machine learning methods were used instead of traditional econometric methods, in which the difference between prediction and reality was minimized. Brent oil, Rediscount advance interest rate, money supply, CPI, tax revenues, general budget revenues, policy rate, US Dollar/TL parity, and GDP attributes, which are thought to affect inflation, were selected by using random forest, decision tree and multi-layered detector, which is an artificial neural networks method, which are alternative machine learning methods. With the selected attributes, it is aimed to determine the method and influencer to make the correct estimation. The analysis results show that the decision tree model predicts the most accurate inflation rate compared to the random forest and multilayer sensor. Another finding from the study is that the highest determinant of inflation in Turkey is the US dollar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of inflation and money supply on dollarization. Especially in recent years, the rapid rise of the exchange rate and inflation in Türkiye has put the phenomenon of dollarization back on the agenda. The study covers the period 2012Q4-2023Q4. The study first applies the Fourier ADL cointegration test, which allows for soft breaks. As a result of the test, it was found that the variables have a long run relationship. In the short run, only budget revenue has a positive effect on dollarization. In the long run, the exchange rate, exports, money supply, and deposit rates have a positive effect, while inflation has a negative effect. The study also applied the Fourier-Toda-Yamamoto causality test. As a result of the test, bidirectional causality was found between exchange rate, inflation and money supply variables and dollarization. The striking result of the study is that inflation has a negative impact on dollarization. This result, which is consistent with some studies in the literature, is attributed to the money supply. Although the demand for foreign exchange increases because the money supply is higher than inflation, the dollarization index decreases. This explanation can explain the negative relationship.

Copyright of InTraders International Trade Academic Journal / InTraders Uluslararası Ticaret Akademik Dergisi is the property of Kursat Capraz and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this study, it is aimed to investigate the relationship between Bitcoin prices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU), money supply (M3), and inflation using the ARDL bounds test and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests. In this context, the short- and longterm relationship between the mentioned variables was carried out for the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries by using monthly data between August 2010 and December 2021. As a result of empirical analysis, it has been found that China's EPU index negatively affects Bitcoin in the long and short term. For India, the effect of the EPU index on the Bitcoin price in the long run is negative; no short-term effects were found. In Russia and Brazil, the EPU index was not found to be effective on Bitcoin. In the BRIC countries, the effect of inflation on Bitcoin is positive in the long run. The impact of M3 on Bitcoin turned out to be positive for India in the short term. Finally, according to the causality results, there is unidirectional causality from inflation to Bitcoin in India and Brazil. For China, from inflation to Bitcoin, there is a causal relationship between Bitcoin and economic policy uncertainty. The findings will contribute to Bitcoin investors and policy makers to take initiatives and develop regulations regarding Bitcoin by considering the effects of M3, inflation and EPU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ekonomik Yaklaşim is the property of Ekonomik Yaklasim Dernegi (Ekonomik Yaklasim Association) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Sakarya Journal of Economics / Sakarya Iktisat Dergisi is the property of Sakarya Journal of Economics / Sakarya Iktisat Dergisi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Turkish Studies - Economics, Finance, Politics is the property of Electronic Turkish Studies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Administrative Sciences / Yonetim Bilimleri Dergisi is the property of Canakkale Onsekiz Mart Universitesi, Terzioglu Kampusu and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Social Sciences Research / Sosyal Bilimler Arastirmalari Dergisi is the property of ODU Journal of Social Sciences Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this study, the two main dynamics of inflation, defined as demand-pull and cost-push inflation, are analyzed for the Turkish economy. Based on the fact that this basic dynamic in inflation may vary, the empirical structure of the study was created by taking into account the structural break in inflation. According to the empirical findings, it was concluded that the dynamics of inflation changed with the structural break in inflation. In terms of the Turkish economy, while demand-pull inflation was observed in the pre-structural break period when the domestic currency was appreciated. Cost-push inflation was more effective in the post-structural break period when the domestic currency was relatively depreciated due to the pass-through effect. Empirical findings show that after the structural break in inflation, a structural process was experienced in the Turkish economy in which money supply did not cause inflation. As it is known, the transfer of wealth from the lower income group to the higher income group accelerates during periods of high inflation. The insufficiency of effective demand, which decreases with the deepening of income inequality, also provides evidence for the fact that the money supply is not inflationary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Banks, which are important actors of the overall economy and the financial system, are directly and indirectly affected by the developments in the global and national economy and continue their activities by being exposed to various risks. Therefore, the risks that banks are exposed to and the management of these risks are important. Liquidity risk, which is among the risks mentioned above, is of vital importance for banks and requires proactive management. In this context, this study aims to reveal the internal and external determinants of the Liquidity Coverage Ratio, which is an indicator of the liquidity level of banks in the Turkish banking sector, covering the Covid-19 period. The quarterly data of 19 commercial and 4 participation banks operating in Turkey between 2015/12 and 2021/9 were analysed by panel data analysis method within the scope of the established models. As a result of the analysis, it was concluded that there are statistically significant relationships between the liquidity level of the Turkish banking sector, which consists of deposit and participation banks within the scope of the sample, and bank-specific deposits, loan deposit ratio, return on equity, capital adequacy ratio, equity and asset size and macroeconomic factors money supply, credit default swap, control variable Covid period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Efil Journal of Economic Research / Efil Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi is the property of Efil Journal of Economic Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Hacettepe University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences / Hacettepe Üniversitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi is the property of Hacettepe University, Faculty of Economic & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this study, the relationship between the current account balance, growth (BUY), money supply (M2) and reel effective exchange rate variables (RDK) for Turkey was analyzed for the period 2003Q1-2020Q4 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL) and Granger Causality Test. Current account balance excluding energy (EHCD) variable was used as dependent variable in the study. According to the analysis results, a long-term negative relationship was found between BUY and RDK variables with EHCD at the 5% significance level. Granger causality analysis results show that there is bidirectional causality between growth and current account balance excluding energy. Since growth in Turkey is dependent on imports, growth affects the external balance negatively by increasing domestic and foreign demand. On the other hand, there is unidirectional causality running from EHCD to money supply and real exchange rate, and from growth to money supply. In order for Turkey to get rid of the chronic current account deficit problem, it needs to produce export goods with high foreign demand, and reduce its dependence on foreign energy and other imported inputs. In this context, both the risks arising as a result of the current Russia-Ukraine tension and the targets of the Paris Climate Agreement to reduce environmental pollution reveal the importance of self-sufficiency in inputs and investments in renewable energy resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Kastamonu University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences Faculty / Kastamonu Üniversitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi is the property of Kastamonu University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Erciyes Akademi is the property of Erciyes Universitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this study, the relationship between financial openness and macroeconomic indicators is examined by panel data analysis method. In the study, Dumitrescu-Hurlin Test and Panel ARDL Model were used, which show whether financial openness has an explanatory power on economic growth. In the study, the existence of a causal relationship between financial openness and economic growth in developing countries for the period 1995-2018 has been revealed. According to the panel ARDL results, increases in the degree of financial openness in the long run show that financial openness has a positive effect on economic growth for developing countries. While the level of financial openness has a positive effect on trade openness and large money supply in developing countries, an increase in the level of financial openness affects private sector loans negatively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of demographic changes on inflation in Turkey. Although there is no direct theoretical explanation about the effects of changes in demographic structure on inflation, studies on the effect of changes in demographic structure on inflation in the national and international literature draw attention. In this study, the effects of demographic structure on inflation in Turkey were investigated by ARDL method. According to the findings of this study covering the years 1971-2020, while the dependent elderly population affects inflation as negatively in the long term, the dependent young population, exchange rate and money supply affect inflation as positively. According to the error correction model, it has been determined that a shock will be eliminated rate of 60% in the short term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 Pandemic has affected all the economies globally. In order to reduce the adverse effects of the pandemic on the economy, governments have resorted to fiscal policies and monetary policies as they did in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. In this framework, the most common policy that is conducted by the central banks has been quantitative easing again. The adverse effects of the monetary policies have been relatively low in developed economies since the monetary expansion was accompanied with fiscal policies such as transfer payments. However in Turkey, the negative effects on inflation and exchange rates arose due to the huge expansion in money supply and credits as the fiscal policies were limited. The aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of the Central Bank policies and the financial measures taken in Turkey after the emergence of the pandemic crisis. The paper presents the policies of the Central Bank of Turkey and their results with international comparisons and provides recomendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar is the property of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekomomik Yorumlar and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of International Journal of Economic & Social Research is the property of Abant Izzet Baysal University, Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The main aim of the study is to investigate the international determinants of inflation in Turkish economy, whose current production and consumption structure is mostly dependent on imported inputs. With this aim, global commodity prices, global food prices, the ratio of broadly defined money supply M3 to GDP and exchange rate variables are used to see the impact of global energy prices and global food prices on domestic prices at the international level for the period 2006:Q1-2020:Q3. Relations between variables is analyzed by means of VAR blok Granger and time-varying causality analysis. The test results reveal that there exists a long-term relationship between inflation and global commodity prices, global food prices, the money supply and the exchange rate. As a result of examining the relationships between variables with the time-varying causality analysis, it is observed that there are bidirectional causalities between inflation and global commodity and food prices, money supply and exchange rate in the 2008:Q4 period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to explain the relationship between economic growth and financial development indicators such as credit volume, money supply, BİST 100 index, exports and imports in Turkey. In this study Johansen cointgeration, vector error correction model estimation, granger causality test, impulse-response and variance decomposition analysis are undertaken. According to Johansen cointegration analysis, it is found that there is a long-run relationship between the economic growth, BİST 100 index, inflation, export, import, credit volume and monetary aggregate M2. According to Granger causality tests there is one-way causality relation from economic growth to BİST 100 stock market index which is an indicator of capital markets and monetary aggregate M2. In this case bank credit volume is not found to be the reason for the economic growth. Impulse-response analysisshow that the response of economic growth one period later to one standard deviation shock in BİST 100 stock market index. The findings obtained during the period of study show that economic growth in the Turkish economy leads to an increase in demand in financial services and thus the demand-push hypothesis which states that it causes financial expansion is confirmed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the effect of macroeconomic variables on stock returns in Borsa Istanbul is examined. XU100, XTUMY, XUMAL, XUHIZ, and XUSIN stock market indices were used as dependent variables; and money supply, interest rates, inflation rates, exchange rate, and confidence indices are used as independent variables. The data set covers the years between 2010 and 2020. In the study in which the least-squares method was used, the relationship between variables was tested in monthly and quarterly periods. According to the findings obtained from the research, it has been determined that (1) there is a positive relationship between money supply and small-cap companies and manufacturing companies, (2) there is a negative relationship between interest rates and large-cap companies and financial companies, (3) there is a positive relationship between composite leading indicator and large companies, small companies and financial companies, and (4) there is a negative relationship between the exchange rate and large-cap companies, financial companies and service companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gold, which has been a symbol of wealth throughout human history is the most important precious metal that has preserved its value for thousands of years and continuously increases its value. Today its importance is increasing as an investment instrument in addition to being used as jewelry and in the industrial field although it was generally used as a means of money making and payment in ancient times. Frequent economic fluctuations in recent years reduce the confidence of individuals and financial institutions in various investment instruments, making gold a more preferred investment tool and an ever-increasingly attractive safe haven in times of crisis. Gold has an indispensable place and importance in protecting the value of the currencies of the countries and their assets when considered at the scale of central banks and states. With the study in the form of a literature review, it is aimed to make an assessment on the global supply and demand of this precious metal, which has increased significantly due to the excessive money supply of the central banks and the financial crises experienced in recent years, and the examination of the gold markets around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Omer Halisdemir Universitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi is the property of Omer Halisdemir University, Faculty of Economics & Admistrative Sciene and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches / İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi is the property of Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)