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En este estudio se analiza la dinámica reciente de la inflación brasileña considerando distintas hipótesis de expectativas para observar la manera en que un posible comportamiento discrecional de la autoridad monetaria puede interferir en las expectativas con miras al futuro de los agentes y la forma en que esa interferencia puede afectar la respuesta de la inflación a su componente inercial y a las oscilaciones en los ciclos económicos en el marco de la curva de Phillips neokeynesiana. Para ello se realizan estimaciones de dicha curva y de su versión híbrida con el método generalizado de momentos (MGM) consistente en presencia de heterocedasticidad y autocorrelación. Los resultados sugieren que, en una hipótesis de menor previsibilidad de los agentes, la inflación será más sensible a las oscilaciones en los ciclos económicos cuanto mayor sea su componente inercial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mainstream philosophy of economics assumes that steady regularities underlie the domain of economic phenomena which can be explained by the operation of mechanisms or socioeconomic machines. It is also considered that once operating those mechanisms don't need further interventions. This implies the assumption that the nature of socioeconomic processes is similar to the one of the natural sciences. Nevertheless, such regularities are usually examined in the light of some economic model, which often ends up losing contact with the real world. The present paper aims at putting in the center of the analysis another object of study: the economic processes based on expectations. In these processes the human action operates as a causal link between economic variables; such an action being the result of a previous building of expectations which are sensitive to the information of the context. It will be shown that the systematic intervention on the background conditions and expectations is fundamental in this kind of processes if what is sought is fulfilling a desired goal or managing a stable process. That intervention will not only require the knowledge provided by models but also an extra-theoretical or interdisciplinary knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El artículo discurre sobre el concepto conocido como la hipótesis de expectativas racionales en los estudios macroeconómicos. La autora comenta sobre la historia de esta hipótesis desde los años 1970 y describe algunas de sus faltas, incluyendo el concepto del desequilibro y la política económica moderna.

This paper evaluates the process of the Andean Community of Nations (CAN) during the ten years between 2000-2010, and describes possible scenarios in 2020. It is assumed that the CAN does not have to consolidate the political status, being the crossroads of conflicting national socio-political projects. We review, from a systemic and structural background and the most significant events of the period, to identify the course of the alleged incidents, together with statistical illustrations. CAN was found to have not been able to establish itself as a regional project achieving its objectives, and concludes that the most desirable scenario is to join the Mercosur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ideas of modern macroeconomics provided the intellectual justification of the economic policies of the last 10 to 15 years. It is these ideas which the financial crisis falsified. The dominant paradigm in macroeconomic theory over the past 30 years has been that of rational agents who form rational expectations about the future and make optimal decisions. The aim of the paper is to study how these agents deal with risk and uncertainty, the source of the problems of the discipline of economics, the economy and the financial crisis. Modern macroeconomics has responsibility for the financial crisis, because it imposes its intellectual foundation on a world that operates in situations involving risk that are systematically underestimated and leads to not recognized situations of genuine uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic policies implemented in the U.S. economy and other industrial nations during the years preceding the recent financial crisis have been strongly criticized for being too "liberal" regarding the functioning and regulation of markets. There are also those who question the vision and responsibility of the regulatory bodies. Furthermore, the crisis triggered criticism from some economists--led by Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman--with respect to the research agenda followed in the field of macroeconomics during the past thirty years. Specifically, these critics affirm that the theories and models based on rational expectations were incapable of both predicting the crisis and offering solutions to it. This paper questions the above charges. It mentions that (based on the same theoretical approaches that are now being criticized) several articles have alerted about the risks that were brewing in the U.S. economy. If there is something to criticize, it would be the models based on the New Keynesian Synthesis which, just as some decades ago, largely trusted that the economic cycle could be tackled using simple rules of monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay discusses the status of Financial Economics as a discipline in the face of the current global crisis. Contrary to some criticisms that have been levied, it defends the thesis that the discipline has not irresponsibly abused the rational man-rational markets paradigm, thereby causing a general unawareness of the dangers concealed in the real estate bubble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on waiting time has always assumed waiting is negative. In this study, we explore possible benefits to waiting based on the relationship between waiting time and value: Waiting time may increase value expectations, and value -based on previous experiences or as an expectation- may lead to the prediction of waiting and an increase in tolerance for waiting. The framework for these relationships is based on four premises: Multiple alternatives, external causal attribution, the shortage principle, and risk reduction. Recording information using the scenarios technique, we may conclude that waiting acts as a sign of value, stimulates choice, and predisposes the waiter to wait more at ease. We deduce that the way waiting works resembles a heuristic decision rule. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this investigation is to estimate an Expectations Augmented Phillips Curve function with the error correction mechanism, applying the Engle & Granger's two step method. In this occasion, the model is estimated with quarterly data, for the period 1981.01 to 2005.04, with an econometric technique that restricts the long run behaviour of the endogenous variable to converge to their co integrating relationships (static) while allowing for short run adjustment dynamics. The main results allow us to infer that more than 90% of the domestic inflation rate's behaviour is explained as a function of the nominal devaluation rate, the external inflation rate, the output gap and the lagged domestic inflation rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]