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The high volatility of electricity prices has motivated to researchers and academics to design models to forecast the demand in the short, medium and long term. The objetive of this paper is to present a model for predict the monthly demand of electricity based on time series, which builds on the values of the electricity demand in the National Interconnected System (NIS) in Colombia in the years 2008-2014. This paper concludes that the time series applied to forecast electricity demand can predict with a high degree of accuracy future of electricity (GWh) demands, information which can generate benefits to producers, distributors and large consumers when establishing strategies, streamline operations and make bilateral agreements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the purpose of conducting a technological renewal of the systems that support the energy market management in Colombia, a new model of requirements addressing in detail the modeling of processes, together with software specifications, has been developed. The new model provides relevant guidelines to use GMPN and UML standards and is supported by the company's experience in market management processes. This article shows the results found after applying the new model of requirements intended to gain knowledge on market management process, formal representation of processes, improvement of traceability between system specifications and the process, and standardization of the understanding of processes by several stakeholders involved. This article further exhibits the results from the application of the model based on the technological renewal within the COLCIENCIAS technological research project "CNBT 833559938649, a System for Electric Energy Market Management in Colombia, Phase I." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electricity market has been developed in Colombia since 1995, has strengthened institutionally, its development has been dynamic, and also has solved different difficulties. Management systems, that support the market administration, have evolved following this development, however some of these are isolated from each other, or have been developed on different platforms making it difficult to ensure sustainability, maintenance and to incorporate changes. As referenced with other markets in the world, great dynamics is observed in incorporating information and communication technologies, regulatory developments or customer requirements. A technological renovation that preserves the acquired knowledge is required, and that allows easily incorporate the development trends of the market. This article presents the results of the proposed methodology for technological renovation framed in Colciencias CNBT 833559938649 technological research project, in management system for electric power market in Colombia, Phase I. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the investment opportunities in emerging power generation technologies, which are considered risky investments due to the volatility of the market price of electricity, are valuated. This analysis uses both the theoretical framework for valuing real options proposed by Dixit and Pindyck (1994) and theoretical information of investment and operational costs for the technologies being analyzed. The model allows a calculation of the value of the investment opportunity and the optimal trigger price to invest in these technologies within the Colombian electricity market conditions. Results show that under current market conditions investors should defer the investment until a required optimal trigger price is found, results which also correspond to the pattern observed in the Colombian market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliability is a key aspect in power system design and planning. Maintaining a reliable power system is a very important issue for their design and operation. Under the new competitive framework of the electricity sector, power systems find ever more and more strained to operate near their limits. Under this new scenario, it is crucial for the system operator to use tools that facilitate an energy dispatch that minimizes possible power cuts. This paper presents a mathematical model to calculate an energy dispatch that considers security constraints (single contingencies in transmission lines and transformers). The model involves pool markets and fixed bilateral contracts. Traditional methodologies that include security constraints are usually based in multistage dispatch processes. In this case, we propose a single-stage model that avoids the economic inefficiencies which result when conventional multi-stage dispatch approaches are applied. The proposed model includes an AC representation of the transport system and allows calculating the cost overruns incurred in due to reliability restrictions. We found that complying with fixed bilateral contracts, when they go above certain levels, might lead to congestion problems in transmission lines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This piece puts together several strands of conceptual themes that are central to the design of electricity market architectures. It starts by delineating the economic characteristics of electricity (whose wholesale markets are inherently incomplete and imperfectly competitive). The role and scope of frequent price adaptation as a welfare maximizing tool is also discussed, as well as the complementary nature of price adaptation and capacity expansion, which can be compactly expressed with the help of variational inequalities. Finally, it points out some of the real-politik constraints that emerge in the process of reforming publicly-owned electricity systems and concludes with the need of using a transaction-cost approach in the reform design process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Espousing the risk estimation hypotheses of markets with no friction used in asset valuation leads to erroneous market risk estimations. To overcome this inconvenience, financial literature usually presents more information on market positioning (price, volume, long or short positioning) and on market operations (volume, price, timeframe). Another problem area is applying the habitual methodologies of measuring risk without adjusting liquidity (value at risk [VaR]) or (liquidity value at risk [L-VaR]) to organized electrical energy spot markets because they set prices differently and because of electricity prices have a particular behavior. Therefore, this paper implements a risk methodology estimation (FEaR) that takes those problems into account. It also demonstrates that the solution for opposite positioning is not symmetrical, that is to say, the risk for long positioning (generators) does not match the risk for short positioning (distributors) so the relation between risk and volume is not linear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]