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This paper analyzes the impact of the feedback relationship that exists between inflation, its uncertainty, and the economic growth of the two main Latin American economies. A Bivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model is developed, which also allows the identification of asymmetric impacts on the conditional volatility of the product and inflation, the sample period corresponds to January 1985 to June 2019. Additionally, causality tests are developed to identify the fulfillment of the main hypotheses raised. Among the main findings is the verification of the Friedman-Ball hypothesis for both countries in most of the lags. Regarding the second hypothesis, it is found that the central bank of Mexico has presented a stabilizing behavior, while in the Brazilian case an opportunistic behavior has been identified. In the third hypothesis, no causal relationship of inflationary uncertainty towards economic growth is identified, in the case of Mexico; while, in the case of Brazil, an ambivalent causality has been identified, regarding the number of lags. Finally, in the fourth hypothesis we find results that corroborate, mainly for both economies, a positive effect from inflation on economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the hypothesis of regional convergence in Latin America through a non-linear growth model for the time period 1950-2010. The methodology combines three approaches: the threshold autoregressive model (tar), panel data unit root tests and calculating critical values with a bootstrapping simulation. The results of the tests applied to the per capita gross domestic product (gdp) of two groups of countries in Latin America (the wealthiest and then all nations in the region) suggest that the linear model is superior to the non-linear model and show no evidence of partial or absolute convergence. We did not identify a group of countries in the region with higher per capita income that would behave as a leading economy. Our results cast doubt on other studies conducted with linear tests that did find conditional convergence in some countries in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyze different methodologies that are used to handle short term interest rate volatility. Specifically, we shall analyze the outcomes that are obtained through three specifications: CKLS, Conditional Heteroscedastic and BHK. The evidence shows that the best specification is reached through the ARCH model. It is found that positive shocks in the short term interest rate cause a volatility 22.3% higher than negative shock of the same size. Also, the process converges to an unconditioned mean of 7.11% with a correction factor of 1.2% daily. It is found that the model offers good forecast in a period of three months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Semestre Económico is the property of Sello Editorial de la Universidad de Medellin and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista de Economía del Rosario is the property of Colegio Mayor de Nuestra Senora del Rosario and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)