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ABSTRACT Objectives: to analyze factors associated, directly and indirectly, with lower social support of older adults, according to sex. Methods: a cross-sectional study, with 941 older adults from a health micro-region in Minas Gerais. Descriptive and trajectory analyzes were carried out (p

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate the relationship between ambient air pollutants and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in relatively low-polluted areas in China. METHODS Atmospheric pollutants levels and meteorological data were obtained from January 2016 to December 2020. The medical database including daily hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ICD10: J44) was derived from the First Affiliated Hospital of Gannan Medical University. The generalized additive model was used to analyze the percentage change with 95% confidence interval in daily hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease associated with a 10 µg/m3 increase in atmospheric pollutants levels. RESULTS In total, occurred 4,980 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospital admissions (not including emergency department visits) during 2016–2020. The mean concentrations of daily PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO were 37.5 μg/m3, 60.1 μg/m3, 18.7 μg/m3, 23.5 μg/m3, 70.0 μg/m3, and 1.2 mg/m3 in Ganzhou. Each 10 µg/m3 increment of PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and O3 were significantly associated with 2.8% (95%CI: 1.0–4.7), 1.3% (95%CI: 0.3–2.4), 2.8% (95%CI: 0.4–5.4), and 1.5% (95%CI: 0.2–2.7) elevation in daily chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospital admissions. The estimates of delayed effects of PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and O3 were observed at lag6, lag6, lag8, lag1, respectively. The health effects of particulate pollutants (PM2.5 and PM10) may be independent of other pollutants. The adverse effects of air pollutants were more evident in the warm season (May–Oct) than in the cold season (Nov–Apr). CONCLUSION Our study demonstrated that elevated concentrations of atmospheric pollutant (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and O3), especially particulate pollutants, can be associated with increased daily count of hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease , which may promote further understanding of the potential hazards of relatively low levels of air pollution on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and other respiratory disorders.

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To compare two methodological approaches: the multinomial model and the zero-inflated gamma model, evaluating the factors associated with the practice and amount of time spent on leisure time physical activity. METHODS Data collected from 14,823 baseline participants in the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil – Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto ) have been analysed. Regular leisure time physical activity has been measured using the leisure time physical activity module of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The explanatory variables considered were gender, age, education level, and annual per capita family income. RESULTS The main advantage of the zero-inflated gamma model over the multinomial model is that it estimates mean time (minutes per week) spent on leisure time physical activity. For example, on average, men spent 28 minutes/week longer on leisure time physical activity than women did. The most sedentary groups were young women with low education level and income CONCLUSIONS The zero-inflated gamma model, which is rarely used in epidemiological studies, can give more appropriate answers in several situations. In our case, we have obtained important information on the main determinants of the duration of leisure time physical activity. This information can help guide efforts towards the most vulnerable groups since physical inactivity is associated with different diseases and even premature death.

Introducción. Los nódulos tiroideos son la condición endocrina más frecuente para los cirujanos. El principio de la evaluación de un nódulo tiroideo es determinar si éste corresponde a un carcinoma. Las decisiones médicas sobre los nódulos tiroideos son influenciadas fuertemente por consideraciones subjetivas. Objetivo. Determinar las probabilidades subjetivas asignadas a las características clínicas de un paciente con un nódulo tiroideo, para evaluar el grado de influencia de estas probabilidades en la sospecha clínica final de un proceso maligno en comparación con los datos objetivos. Materiales y métodos. Se diseñó un análisis bayesiano para predecir el riesgo de un proceso maligno en un nódulo tiroideo, con base en la relación causal conocida de los factores clínicos y los demográficos durante la primera consulta. Se desarrolló un modelo con las variables clínicas y demográficas usando como expertos a los cirujanos. Resultados. La mayor probabilidad de un proceso maligno (94 %) se asignó al caso clínico de un hombre mayor de 60 años, con disfonía y disfagia, nódulo de crecimiento rápido, antecedentes de radioterapia cervical y familiar con cáncer de tiroides, con nódulos múltiples, mayores de 1 cm, de consistencia dura y con adenomegalias cervicales palpables. Para los casos de bajo riesgo, con nódulos sin características de un proceso maligno, la probabilidad de éste asignada por los clínicos fue de 33,59 % y para los de alto riesgo de 75,54 %. Conclusión. Los cirujanos toman decisiones diagnósticas basadas en creencias subjetivas que no necesariamente corresponden con los datos objetivos de las características de nódulos.

OBJETIVO: Analisar a literatura nacional e internacional sobre validade de métodos de relacionamentos nominais de base de dados em saúde, com ênfase nas medidas de aferição da qualidade dos resultados. MÉTODOS: Revisão sistemática de estudos de coorte, caso-controles e seccionais que avaliaram a qualidade dos métodos de relacionamento probabilístico de base de dados em saúde. Foi utilizada metodologia Cochrane para revisões sistemáticas. As bases consultadas foram as mais amplamente utilizadas: Medline, LILACS, Scopus, SciELO e Scirus. Não foi utilizado filtro temporal e os idiomas considerados foram: português, espanhol, francês e inglês. RESULTADOS: As medidas sumárias da qualidade dos relacionamentos probabilísticos foram a sensibilidade, a especificidade e o valor preditivo positivo. Dos 202 estudos identificados, após critérios de inclusão, foram analisados 33 artigos. Apenas seis apresentaram dados completos sobre as medidas-sumárias de interesse. Observam-se como principais limitações a ausência de revisor na avaliação dos títulos e dos resumos dos artigos e o não-mascaramento da autoria dos artigos no processo de revisão. Estados Unidos, Reino Unido e Nova Zelândia concentraram as publicações científicas neste campo. Em geral, a acurácia dos métodos de relacionamento probabilístico de bases de dados variou de 74% a 98% de sensibilidade e 99% a 100% de especificidade. CONCLUSÕES: A aplicação do relacionamento probabilístico a bases de dados em saúde tem primado pela alta sensibilidade e uma maior flexibilização da sensibilidade do método, mostrando preocupação com a precisão dos dados a serem obtidos. O valor preditivo positivo nos estudos aponta alta proporção de pares de registros verdadeiramente positivos. A avaliação da qualidade dos métodos empregados tem se mostrado indispensável para validar os resultados obtidos nestes tipos de estudos, podendo ainda contribuir para a qualificação das grandes bases de dados em saúde disponíveis no País.OBJETIVO: Analizar la literatura nacional e internacional sobre validez de métodos de relacionamientos nominales de base de datos en salud, con énfasis en las medidas de confirmación de la calidad de los resultados. MÉTODOS: Revisión sistemática de estudios de cohorte, caso-controles y seccionales que evaluaron la calidad de los métodos de relacionamiento probabilístico de base de datos en salud. Fue utilizada metodología Cochrane para revisiones sistemáticas. Las bases consultadas fueron las más ampliamente utilizadas: Medline, LILACS, Scopus, SciELO y Scirus. No fue utilizado filtro temporal y los idiomas considerados fueron: portugués, español, francés e inglés. RESULTADOS: Las medidas rápidas de la calidad de los relacionamientos probabilísticos fueron la sensibilidad, la especificidad y el valor predictivo positivo. De los 202 estudios identificados, posterior a los criterios de inclusión, fueron analizados 33 artículos. Sólo seis presentaron datos completos sobre las medidas-rápidas de interés. Se observan como principales limitaciones la ausencia de revisor en la evaluación de los títulos y de los resúmenes de los artículos y el no-ocultamiento de la autoría de los artículos en el proceso de revisión. Estados Unidos, Reino Unido y Nueva Zelandia concentraron las publicaciones científicas en este campo. En general, el perfeccionamiento de los métodos de relacionamiento probabilístico de bases de datos varió de 74% a 98% de sensibilidad y 99% a 100% de especificidad. CONCLUSIONES: La aplicación de relacionamiento probabilístico a bases de datos en salud se ha priorizado por la alta sensibilidad y mayor flexibilización de la sensibilidad del método, mostrando preocupación con la precisión de los datos que se obtendrán. El valor predictivo positivo en los estudios apunta alta proporción de pares de registros verdaderamente positivos. La evaluación de la calidad de los métodos empleados se ha mostrado indispensable para validar los resultados obtenidos en estos tipos de estudios, pudiendo aún contribuir para la calificación de las grandes bases de datos en salud disponibles en el País.OBJECTIVE: To analyze both national and international literature on validity of record linkage procedure of health databases focusing on quality assessment of results. METHODS: A systematic review of cohort, case-control, and cross-sectional studies that evaluated quality of probabilistic record linkage of health databases was conducted. Cochrane methodology of systematic reviews was used. The following databases were widely searched: Medline, LILACS, Scopus, SciELO and Scirus. A time filter was not applied and articles were searched in the following languages: Portuguese, Spanish, French and English. RESULTS: Summary measures of the quality of probabilistic record linkage were sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value. There were identified 202 studies, and after applying the inclusion criteria, a total of 33 articles were reviewed. Only six had complete data on the summary measures of interest. The main limitations were: no reviewer to evaluate titles and abstracts; and no blinding of the article's authors in the review process. Most scientific publications in this field were from the United States, United Kingdom, and New Zealand. Overall, the accuracy of probabilistic record linkage of databases ranged from 74% to 98% sensitivity and 99% to 100% specificity. CONCLUSIONS: Probabilistic record linkage of health databases has notably been characterized by high sensitivity and greater flexibility of the procedure's sensitivity, indicating concern with data accuracy. The positive predictive value in studies shows a high proportion of truly positive record pairs. The quality assessment of these procedures has been proved essential for validating the results obtained in these studies, and can also contribute to improve large health databases available in Brazil.

OBJETIVO: Caracterizar la frecuencia y tipo de uso de teorías o modelos citados en artículos publicados en una revista latinoamericana de salud publica entre los años 2000 y 2004. MÉTODOS: Se escogió la Revista de Saúde Pública por su historia de publicación periódica sin interrupción e impacto actual en la comunicación científica del área. Se aplicó un procedimiento estándar para leer los artículos y clasificarlos en una tipología arbitraria de cuatro niveles según la profundidad del uso dado a los referentes teóricos o modelos citados en los textos para describir asuntos o problemas abordados, formular métodos y discutir a rigor los hallazgos comunicados. RESULTADOS: Se leyeron 482 artículos: 421 (87%) investigaciones, 42 (9%) revisiones o especiales y 19 (4%) textos de opinión o reflexión. En las 421 investigaciones, 286 (68%) tuvieron enfoque cuantitativo, 110 (26%) cualitativo y 25 (6%) mixtos. La cita de teorías o modelos fue infrecuente; 90 (19%) artículos revisados citan algun referente. Según la profundidad de uso 29 (6%) de los 90 fueron tipo I, 9 (1,9%) tipo II, 6 (1,3%) tipo III y 46 (9,5%), tipo IV. CONCLUSIONES: La citación de modelos fue nueve veces más frecuente que la de alguna teoría; el uso ideal, el tipo IV, ocurrió en apenas uno de cada diez artículos analizados. Hay relevancia de explicitar los marcos teóricos y modelos usados al abordar temas, formular hipótesis, diseñar métodos y discutir hallazgos en las contribuciones de las revistas científicas del área.OBJETIVO: Caracterizar a freqüência e tipo de uso de teorias ou modelos citados em artigos publicados em uma revista latino-americana de saúde pública entre os anos 2000 e 2004. MÉTODOS: A Revista de Saúde Pública foi escolhida por sua história de publicação ininterrupta e atual impacto na comunicação científica da área. Foi aplicado um procedimento padrão para ler e classificar os artigos de acordo com tipologia de quatro níveis, segundo a profundidade de uso dado aos referenciais teóricos ou modelos citados nos textos para descrever assuntos ou problemas abordados, formular métodos e discutir a rigor os achados comunicados. RESULTADOS: Foram lidos 482 artigos: 421 (87%) investigações, 42 (9%) revisões ou especiais e 19 (4%) textos de opinião ou reflexão. Nas 421 investigações, 286 (68%) tiveram enfoque quantitativo, 110 (26%) qualitativo e 25 (6%) mistos. A menção a teorias ou modelos não foi freqüente; apenas 90 (19%) dos artigos revisados citavam alguma teoria ou modelo. Segundo a profundidade de uso, 29 (6%) dos 90 foram tipo I, 9 (1,9%) tipo II, 6 (1,3%) tipo III e 46 (9,5%), tipo IV. CONCLUSÕES: A citação de modelos foi nove vezes mais freqüente do que de alguma teoria; o uso ideal, de tipo IV, ocorreu em apenas um de cada dez artículos analisados. É relevante explicitar os marcos teóricos e modelos usados ao abordar temas, formular hipóteses, desenhar métodos e discutir achados nas contribuições das revistas científicas da área.OBJECTIVE: To characterize frequency and type of use of theories or models on papers of a Latin-American journal in public health between 2000 and 2004. METHODS: The Revista de Saúde Pública was chosen because of its history of periodic publication without interruption and current impact on the scientific communication of the area. A standard procedure was applied for reading and classifying articles in an arbitrary typology of four levels, according to the depth of the use of models or theoretical references to describe problems or issues, to formulate methods and to discuss results. RESULTS: Of 482 articles included, 421 (87%) were research studies, 42 (9%) reviews or special contributions and 19 (4%) opinion texts or assays . Of 421 research studies, 286 (68%) had a quantitative focus, 110 (26%) qualitative and 25 (6%) mixed. Reference to theories or models is uncommon, only 90 (19%) articles mentioned a theory or model. According to the depth of the use, 29 (6%) were classified as type I, 9 (2%) as type II, 6 (1.3%) were type III and the 46 remaining texts (9.5%) were type IV. CONCLUSIONS: Reference to models was nine-fold more frequent than the use of theoretical references. The ideal use, type IV, occurred in one of every ten articles studied. It is of relevance to show theoretical and models frames used when approaching topics, formulating hypothesis, designing methods and discussing findings in papers.

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (pOBJETIVO: Avaliar os custos da atenção médica a doenças associadas ao tabagismo e o impacto econômico das mudanças epidemiológicas. MÉTODOS: Análise de série temporal no México (1994-2005) de sete intervenções médicas em relação a: doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica, câncer de pulmão com e sem intervenção cirúrgica, asma bronquial em fumantes e não-fumantes, tratamento com adesivos para deixar de fumar, tratamento com goma de mascar. As mudanças epidemiológicas esperadas e as necessidades financeiras para atender a demanda de serviços foram avaliadas pelos modelos probabilísticos de Box-Jenkins. Os custos foram determinados de acordo com método de instrumentação e a técnica de consenso. RESULTADOS: A comparação do impacto das mudanças epidemiológicas previstas para 2006 e 2008 mostrou incremento de 20% a 90%, dependendo do tipo de intervenção. O incremento nos custos da atenção médica foi de 25% a 93%. Há indícios que a demanda de serviços de saúde para as intervenções investigadas continuarão aumentando. CONCLUSÕES: Em termos econômicos, o aumento na quantidade de casos esperados refletem um fenômeno de competição interna em relação ao uso dos recursos adicionais entre atividades de promoção e prevenção da saúde relacionada ao tabagismo. Se não houver mudanças nos programas de prevenção, haverão desafios econômicos de alto impacto no financiamento dos sistemas de saúde.

OBJETIVO; Investigar a influência de fatores socioeconômicos e demográficos relativos à saúde, bem como os fatores ligados às atividades sociais e à avaliação subjetiva da saúde sobre a capacidade funcional dos idosos. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal, integrante de estudo multicêntrico, em amostra representativa do município de São Paulo, realizado em 1989. A capacidade funcional foi avaliada através da escala de atividades da vida diária pessoal e instrumental e investigada como variável dicotômica: ausência de dependência - incapacidade/dificuldade em nenhuma das atividades versus presença de dependência moderada/grave - incapacidade/dificuldade em 4 ou mais atividades. Análise de regressão logística múltipla foi aplicada aos fatores hierarquicamente agrupados. RESULTADOS: As características que se associaram com a dependência moderada/grave foram analfabetismo, ser aposentado, ser pensionista, ser dona de casa, não ser proprietário da moradia, ter mais de 65 anos, ter composição familiar multigeracional, ter sido internado nos últimos 6 meses, ser "caso" no rastreamento de saúde mental, não visitar amigos, ter problemas de visão, ter história de derrame, não visitar parentes e ter avaliação pessimista da saúde ao se comparar com seus pares. CONCLUSÕES: As características identificadas que se associaram à dependência moderada/grave sugerem uma complexa rede causal do declínio da capacidade funcional. Pode-se supor, entretanto, que ações preventivas especificamente voltadas para certos fatores podem propiciar benefícios para o prolongamento do bem estar da população idosa.OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of health-related demographic and socioeconomic factors, as well as the impact of factors associated to social activity and the subjective health evaluation on the functional status of elderly people. METHODS: A cross-sectional multicentric study was conducted in a representative population sample in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, in 1989. Functional status was evaluated using a scale of activities of personal and instrumental daily living. It was studied as a dichotomous variable: absence of dependency - disability/difficulty in none of the activities in contrast with moderate/severe dependency - disability/difficulty in 4 or more activities. Multiple regression analysis was applied to hierarchically clustered factors. RESULTS: Those with the following features were more associated to moderate/severe dependency: illiterate, retired, pensioner, housekeeper, living in a rented home, age over 65 years, multigenerational family composition, hospitalization in the last 6 months, mental health screening case, no visiting friends, and having a pessimistic perception of his/her own health when compared to their peers. CONCLUSIONS: The identified features associated to moderate/severe dependency suggest a complex net of causes for the declining functional status. However, one can assume that preventive measures directed to specific factors can benefit these population by improving their well-being.

INTRODUCTION: The evolution of virulence in host-parasite relationships has been the subject of several publications. In the case of HIV virulence, some authors suggest that the evolution of HIV virulence correlates with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. In contrast some other authors argue that the level of HIV virulence is independent of the sexual activity of the host population. METHODS: Provide a mathematical model for the study of the potential influence of human sexual behaviour on the evolution of virulence of HIV is provided. RESULTS: The results indicated that, when the probability of acquisition of infection is a function both of the sexual activity and of the virulence level of HIV strains, the evolution of HIV virulence correlates positively with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. CONCLUSION: It is concluded that in the case of a host population with a low (high) rate of exchange of sexual partners the evolution of HIV virulence is such that the less (more) virulent strain prevails.INTRODUÇÃO: A evolução da virulência na relação hospedeiro-parasita tem sido objeto de várias publicações. No caso do HIV, alguns autores sugerem que a evolução da virulência do HIV correlaciona-se com a taxa de aquisição de novos parceiros sexuais. Por outro lado, outros autores argumentam que o nível de virulência do HIV é independente da atividade sexual da população hospedeira. MÉTODOS: Propõe-se um modelo matemático para estudar a influência potencial que o comportamento sexual humano possa ter na evolução da virulência do HIV. RESULTADOS: Os resultados indicam que, quando a probabilidade de aquisição da infecção pelo HIV é uma função tanto da atividade sexual da população humana quanto da virulência das cepas de HIV, a evolução da virulência do HIV correlaciona-se positivamente com a taxa de aquisição de novos parceiros sexuais. CONCLUSÃO: Concluiu-se que no caso de uma população hospedeira com uma baixa (alta) taxa de troca de parceiros sexuais a evolução da virulência do HIV é tal que a cepa menos (mais) virulenta predomina.

INTRODUCTION: The evolution of virulence in host-parasite relationships has been the subject of several publications. In the case of HIV virulence, some authors suggest that the evolution of HIV virulence correlates with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. In contrast some other authors argue that the level of HIV virulence is independent of the sexual activity of the host population. METHODS: Provide a mathematical model for the study of the potential influence of human sexual behaviour on the evolution of virulence of HIV is provided. RESULTS: The results indicated that, when the probability of acquisition of infection is a function both of the sexual activity and of the virulence level of HIV strains, the evolution of HIV virulence correlates positively with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. CONCLUSION: It is concluded that in the case of a host population with a low (high) rate of exchange of sexual partners the evolution of HIV virulence is such that the less (more) virulent strain prevails.

Objective: to analyze the time trend and the spatial distribution of the cases of lethal violence against women in Brazil, according to age group and to race/skin color., Method: an ecological study of time series, with spatial distribution of the deaths of women victims of aggression, registered in the Mortality Information System, resident in Brazil, Brazilian geographic regions and states. Due to underreporting of deaths in some states, correction factors of the mortality rates were employed. For the trend analysis, we adopted the polynomial regression model. In addition to that, the mean rates and annual upward/downward trends were distributed considering the Brazilian federative units as analysis units., Results: the mean rate was 6.24 cases of lethal violence per 100,000 women, with a significant variation across the Brazilian regions and states. The main victims of violent death in Brazil are young, black-/brown-skinned and indigenous women, with a growing trend in these population segments. The North and Northeast regions stood out with the most significant mean annual increases (0.33; r2= 0.96 and 0.26; r2= 0.92, respectively)., Conclusion: there was a stable trend regarding lethal violence against women, with significant regional differences. Young, black-/brown-skinned and indigenous women are more vulnerable to violent death in Brazil.

La etiología de los trastornos temporomandibulares es de naturaleza compleja y se considera aún no resuelta. Entre los posibles factores de riesgo se citan las maloclusiones dentarias precisamente por las variaciones conque pueden presentarse, en ocasiones grandes discrepancias estructurales pueden provocar disturbios funcionales, con tendencia a agravarse cuando coexisten otros factores de riesgo. Este trabajo tiene como objetivo identificar factores de riesgo como las maloclusiones dentarias, y algunas características específicas como son el resalte y el sobrepase presentes en población de 7 a 44 años de edad con disfunción temporomandibular, los cuales fueron pesquisados en centros de enseñanza del municipio de Matanzas. El estudio realizado fue descriptivo y de corte transversal, cuya muestra fue seleccionada mediante la aplicación de un esquema probabilístico y multietápico, donde se seleccionaron 1,866 sujetos. Fue empleado el Test de Krogh Paulsen para el diagnóstico de disfunción. El 72% de los pacientes afectados con disfunción temporomandibular presentaron maloclusiones dentarias; el 40.9% alteraciones en el resalte y un 37.8% en relación al sobrepase, apreciándose un incremento de las mismas conjuntamente con las edades.The aetiology of temporomandibular disorders is complex and still unsolved. Among the possible risk facts are dental malocclusions precisely because of the variations they present. Occasionally, big structural discrepancies might provoke functional disturbances, with a tendency to get more serious when they coexist with other risk facts. The object of the current, descriptive and transversal study was identifying risk facts like dental malocclusions, and some specific characteristics like overjet and overpass in a 7-to-44 years-old population with temporomandibular dysfunction. They were investigated in schools of the municipality of Matanzas, applying a multistage, probabilistic method to select a sample of 1 866 persons. The Krogh Paulsen Test was used to diagnose the dysfunction. 72 % of the patients affected with temporomandibular dysfunctions had dental malocclusions; 40.9 % overjet and 37.8 % overpassing, finding an increase of them with age.

Objective: MoMo is a mortality monitoring system that guides public health policy in Spain. The COVID-19 pandemic worsened death notification delays, thus biasing downwards the daily (cumulative) excess mortality estimates produced by MoMo. The goal of this study is to find the best model to correct these estimates for the effect of death notification delays., Methods: The process followed was: 1) estimates for the excess mortality accumulated in Spain since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic are published daily by MoMo and gathered in this study for the period 15/04/2020-25/05/2020. 2) the intensity of daily revisions is computed as the ratio of the estimate published each day divided by the estimate published the day before. 3) Adjusted excess mortality estimates result from applying to these ratios five different correcting models (a simple arithmetic mean or a weighted average, as well as linear, quadratic and cubic regressions). 4) The performance of these corrected estimates is compared with the definite values using the root mean square error (RMSE)., Results: The intensity of daily revisions for the cumulative excess of deaths fell to 1 (no revision) as the publication date left behind the date of death. The correcting estimates based on polynomial regressions reduced the error with respect to the definite observed values by 18-25%., Conclusions: To improve the validity of the daily estimates for the cumulative excess of deaths from MoMo, it is recommended to correct the notification delay of deaths using polynomial regression models estimated with data on previous revisions., Competing Interests: Disclosure The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.

Objectives: The purpose of this article is to describe and develop the predictive value of three models during the COVID-19 epidemic in Chile, providing knowledge for decision-making in health., Methods: We developed three models during the epidemic: a discrete model to predict the maximum burden on the health system in a short time framea basic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-removed) model with discrete equations; a stochastic SEIR model with the Monte Carlo method; and a Gompertz-type model for metropolitan city of Santiago., Results: The maximum potential burden model has been useful throughout the monitoring of the epidemic, providing an upper bound for the number of cases, intensive care unit occupancy, and deaths. Deterministic and stochastic SEIR models were very useful in predicting the rise of cases and the peak and onset of case decline; however, they lost utility in the current situation due to the asynchronous recruitment of cases in the regions and the persistence of a strong endemic. The Gompertz model had a better fit in the decline since it best captures the epidemic curves asymmetry in Santiago., Conclusions: The models have shown great utility in monitoring the epidemic in Chile, with different objectives in different epidemic stages. They have complemented empirical indicators such as reported cases, fatality, deaths, and others, making it possible to predict situations of interest and visualization of the short and long-term local behavior of this pandemic.

Introduction: SARS CoV-2 pandemic is pressing hard on the responsiveness of health systems worldwide, notably concerning the massive surge in demand for intensive care hospital beds., Aim: This study proposes a methodology to estimate the saturation moment of hospital intensive care beds (critical care beds) and determine the number of units required to compensate for this saturation., Methods: A total of 22,016 patients with diagnostic confirmation for COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 were analyzed between March 4 and May 5, 2020, nationwide. Based on information from the Chilean Ministry of Health and ministerial announcements in the media, the overall availability of critical care beds was estimated at 1,900 to 2,000. The Gompertz function was used to estimate the expected number of COVID-19 patients and to assess their exposure to the available supply of intensive care beds in various possible scenarios, taking into account the supply of total critical care beds, the average occupational index, and the demand for COVID-19 patients who would require an intensive care bed., Results: A 100% occupancy of critical care beds could be reached between May 11 and May 27. This condition could be extended for around 48 days, depending on how the expected over-demand is managed., Conclusion: A simple, easily interpretable, and applicable to all levels (nationwide, regionwide, municipalities, and hospitals) model is offered as a contribution to managing the expected demand for the coming weeks and helping reduce the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a risk prediction model for major postoperative infection (MPI) after pediatric heart surgery and to validate the model of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS)., Materials and Methods: We analyzed a retrospective cohort of 1,025 children who underwent heart surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) from 2000 to 2010. We used a logistic regression model, which was validated., Results: Of the 1,025 patients, 59 (5.8%) had at least one episode of MPI (4.8% had sepsis, 1% had mediastinitis, 0% had endocarditis). Hospital mortality (63% vs. 13%; p < 0.001), as well as duration of postoperative ventilation (301.6 vs. 34.3 hours; p < 0.001) and intensive care unit stay (20.9 vs. 5.1 days; p < 0.001) were higher in patients with MPI. The predictive factors found were age, sex, weight, cyanotic heart disease, RACHS-1 3-4, Ross-modified functional class IV, previous hospital stay, and previous history of mechanical ventilation. The proposed model had a c-statistic of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.74-0.86) and was considered as clinically useful. The STS model showed a c-statistic of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.71-0.84) and a Hosmer-Lemeshow of 18.2 (P = 0.020). A comparison between the two models was made using an accurate Fisher test., Conclusion: A model with good performance and calibration was developed to preoperatively identify children at high risk for severe infection after cardiac surgery with CPB. The STS model was also validated and was found to have a moderate discrimination performance.

Objective: Based on a sample of children and adolescents of both genders, our objective is to des cribe height growth, estimate the peak age at growth spurt, growth rate at this point, the final adult height expected, and differential patterns Subjects and Method: A cross-sectional study was conduc ted using demographic, clinical, and anthropometric data collected prospectively from children and adolescents of both sexes between 2015 and 2016. Height percentiles were calculated using the LMS (skewness, median, and coefficient of variation) method and then adjusted using the Preece-Baines model 1., Results: We evaluated 861 participants (484 girls, 377 boys), aged between 2 and 18 years. The estimated peak age at growth spurt (he) was 13.6 years in boys and 11.0 years in girls, with a peak growth rate (V2) at this point of 6.4 cm/year for both sexes. The mean expected adult height (h1) was 173.7 cm in boys and 160.0 cm in girls., Conclusions: Preece-Baines model 1 provides satisfactory estimates for the peak age at growth spurt, peak growth rate at this point, and final expected adult height.

If one knows the probability of an event occurring in a population, Bayesian statistics allows mo difying its value when there is new individual information available. Although the Bayesian and frequentist (classical) methodologies have identical fields of application, the first one is increasin gly applied in scientific research and big data analysis. In modern pharmacotherapy, clinical phar macokinetics has been used for the expansion of monitoring, facilitated by technical-analytical and mathematical-statistical developments. Population pharmacokinetics has allowed the identification and quantification of pathophysiological and treatment characteristics in a specific patient popu lation, especially in the pediatric and neonatal population and other vulnerable groups, explaining interindividual variability. Likewise, Bayesian estimation is important as a statistical tool applied in pharmacotherapy optimization software when pharmacological monitoring is based on clinical phar macokinetic interpretation. With its advantages and despite its limitations, pharmacotherapeutic op timization based on Bayesian estimation is increasingly used, becoming the reference method today. This characteristic is particularly convenient for routine clinical practice due to the limited number of samples required from the patient and the flexibility it shows regarding blood sampling times for drug quantification. Therefore, the application of Bayesian principles to the practice of clinical phar macokinetics has led to the improvement of pharmacotherapeutic care.

In December 2019, an acute respiratory disease outbreak from zoonotic origin was detected in the city of Wuhan, China. The outbreak's infectious agent was a type of coronavirus never seen. Thenceforth, the Covid-19 disease has rapidly spread to more than 200 countries around the world. To minimize the devastating effects of the virus, the States have adopted epidemiological measures of various kinds that involved enormous economic expenses and the massive use of the media to explain the measures to the entire population. For the prediction and mitigation of infectious events, various epidemiological models, such as SIR, SEIR, MSIR and MSEIR, are used. Among them, the most widely used is the SIR model, which is based on the analysis of the transition of individuals susceptible to infection (S) to the state of infected individuals that infect (I) and, finally, to that of recovered (cured or deceased) (R), by using differential equations. The objective of this article was the mathematical development of the SIR model and its application to predict the course of the Covid-19 pandemic in the city of Santa Marta (Colombia), in order to understand the reason behind several of the measures of containment adopted by the States of the world in the fight against the pandemic.

Objective: The Covid-19 pandemic led to the establishment of the state of alarm in Spanish and the initial lockdown of the entire population. The aim of this study is to analyse the assessment of professionals working with children on the impact of quarantine on the health and health inequalities of the child population, as well as the importance given to the intermediate factors that can modulate the impact of the experience of lockdown on children's health., Methods: A cross-sectional study was made according to an online questionnaire to professionals in health and socio-educational fields working with children (n=214) with questions concerning the potential effects of lockdown and the dimensions that could modulate those effects. For the analysis, descriptive statistics were calculated together with Chi-square tests and comparison of means to analyse differences according to professional field., Results: 86% of the experts pointed out the potential negative impact of quarantine on the health of children, especially that of the most vulnerable, highlighting the adverse effects of conflict at home and exposure to tobacco smoke in this experience, which were scored in importance with more than 9 and 8.5 respectively., Conclusions: The results show how, according to child professionals, lockdown can have an impact on the health of the child population that goes beyond the direct effect of Covid-19., Competing Interests: Disclosure The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.

Objective: To evaluate whether the lower dropout rate of the treatment of overactive bladde r(OAB) with mirabegron could generate cost savings to the National Health System (NHS) and lead to quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gains, compared to the most commonly prescribed antimuscarinics (AM) in Spain (tolterodine, fesoterodine, oxybutynin, solifenacin)., Methods: A probabilistic model (second order Monte Carlo simulation) in a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 patients with OAB and a time horizon of 1 year was carried out. Discontinuation and persistence rates for both mirabegron and AM were obtained from a Spanish observational study in 1798 patients. Unit costs (€ 2018) and utility loss associated with treatment discontinuation were obtained from Spanish public prices and literature, respectively., Results: Persistence rates in patients treated with mirabegron were twice as high compared to AM, leading to a QALY gain of 0.0151 ± 0.0007 per year. Treatment with mirabegron could generate savings of 80.74 ±4.61 € per patient per year compared to AM, assuming 100% probability of saving. The hypothetical substitution of AM treatment for mirabegron could potentially generate savings of 6.6 million euros (95% CI 3.9-10.1 million euros) to the NHS and 1,238 QALYs gains (CI95%731; 1,885 QALYs) within a period of 1 year., Conclusions: The probabilistic model presented showed a greater persistence in patients treated with mirabegron compared to AM, leading to a positive impactin patients quality of life, as well cost savings to the NHS in Spain.

Objective: to explore the best type of curve or trend model that could explain the epidemiological behavior of the infection by COVID-19 and derive the possible causes that contribute to explain the corresponding model and the health implications that can be inferred., Method: data were collected from the COVID-19 reports of the Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Chile. Curve adjustment studies were developed with the data in four different models: quadratic, exponential, simple exponential smoothing, and double exponential smoothing. The significance level used was α≤0.05., Results: the curve that best fits the evolution of the accumulated confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Chile is the doubly-smoothed exponential curve., Conclusion: the number of infected patients will continue to increase. Chile needs to remain vigilant and adjust the strategies around the prevention and control measures. The behavior of the population plays a fundamental role. We suggest not relaxing restrictions and further improving epidemiological surveillance. Emergency preparations are needed and more resource elements need to be added to the current health support. This prediction is provisional and depends on keeping all intervening variables constant. Any alteration will modify the prediction.

Objective: to estimate the transmission rate, the epidemiological peak, and the number of deaths by the new coronavirus., Method: a mathematical and epidemiological model of susceptible, infected, and recovered cases was applied to the nine Brazilian capitals with the highest number of cases of the infection. The number of cases for the 80 days following the first case was estimated by solving the differential equations. The results were logarithmized and compared with the actual values to observe the model fit. In all scenarios, it was considered that no preventive measures had been taken., Results: the nine metropolises studied showed an upward curve of confirmed cases of COVID-19. The prediction data point to the peak of the infection between late April and early May. Fortaleza and Manaus had the highest transmission rates (≥2·0 and ≥1·8, respectively). Rio de Janeiro may have the largest number of infected people (692,957) and Florianópolis the smallest (24,750)., Conclusion: the estimates of the transmission rate, epidemiological peak, and number of deaths from coronavirus in Brazilian metropolises presented expressive and important numbers the Brazilian Ministry of Health needs to consider. The results confirm the rapid spread of the virus and its high mortality in the country.

Introduction: Sepsis is associated to a high mortality rate, and its severity must be evaluated quickly. The severity of illness scores used are intended to be applicable to all patient populations, and generally evaluate in-hospital mortality. However, patients with sepsis continue to be at risk of death after hospital discharge., Objective: To develop a model for predicting 1-year mortality in critical patients diagnosed with sepsis., Patients: The data corresponding to 5650 admissions of patients with sepsis from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database were evaluated, randomly divided as follows: 70% for training and 30% for validation., Design: A retrospective register-based cohort study was carried out. The clinical information of the first 24h after admission was used to develop a 1-year mortality prediction model based on Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) methodology. Variable selection was addressed using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and SGB variable importance methodologies. The predictive power was evaluated using the area under the ROC curve (AUROC)., Results: An AUROC of 0.8039 (95% confidence interval (CI): [0.8033 0.8045]) was obtained in the validation subset. The model exceeded the predictive performances obtained with traditional severity of disease scores in the same subset., Conclusion: The use of assembly algorithms, such as SGB, for the generation of a customized model for sepsis yields more accurate 1-year mortality prediction than the traditional scoring systems such as SAPS II, SOFA or OASIS., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.)

The smartphone is a common tool in our everyday lives. However, recent research suggests that using the smartphone has both positive and negative consequences. Although there is no agreement on the concept or the term to label it, researchers and clinical practitioners are worried about the negative consequences derived from excessive smartphone usage. This study aims to analyse the relationship between smartphone addiction and experiential avoidance. A sample of 1176 participants (828 women) with ages ranging from 16 to 82 (M = 30.97; SD = 12.05) was used. The SAS-SV scale was used to measure smartphone addiction and the AAQ-II to assess experiential avoidance. To model the relationship between variables, Bayesian inference and Bayesian networks were used. The results show that experiential avoidance and social networks usage are directly related to smartphone addiction. Additionally, the data suggests that sex is playing a mediating role in the observed relationship between these variables. These results are useful for understanding healthy and pathological interaction with smartphones and could be helpful in orienting or planning future psychological interventions to treat smartphone addiction.

We present a straightforward projection with data up to 21/03/2020 of the evolution of the number of COVID-19 cases per day in Chile using data from the Ministry of Health. Assuming an arithmetical growth in the second variation of the data, we present a cubic adjustment model in which we estimate over 100 000 cases at 120 days consistent with the data recorded to date. Furthermore, we use an exponential total case model to represent (using a parameter) the daily effort to reduce a high initial daily growth rate. We simulate this model with different numerical scenarios of feasibility and desired future prevalence.

Objective: To develop a prognostic SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia., Materials and Methods: A SIR model with a deterministic approach was used to forecast the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. The states considered were susceptible (S), infectious (i) and recovered or deceased (R). Population data were obtained from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) - Population Projections 2018-2020, released in January 2020-, and data on daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 from the National Institute of Health. Different models were proposed varying the basic reproduction number (R0)., Results: Based on the cases reported by the Ministry of Health, 4 simulated environments were created in an epidemiological SIR model. The time series was extended until May 30, the probable date when 99% of the population will be infected. R0=2 is the basic reproduction number and the closest approximation to the behavior of the pandemic during the first 15 days since the first case report; the worst scenario would occur in the first week of April with R0=3., Conclusions: Further mitigation and suppression measures are necessary in the containment and sustained transmission phases, such as increased diagnostic capacity through testing and disinfection of populated areas and homes in isolation.

Introduction and Objectives: Various studies tried to validate Club Urológico Español de Tratamiento Oncológico (CUETO) tables, yet, none of this papers focused on the high and very high risk bladder cancers. The aim of the study was to externally validate the CUETO model for predicting disease recurrence and progression in group of T1G3 tumors treated with BCG immunotherapy., Patients or Materials and Methods: Data from 414 patients with primary T1G3 bladder cancer were analysed. To evaluate the model discrimination, Cox proportional hazard regression models were created and concordance indexes were calculated., Results: The median follow-up was 68 months. The recurrence was observed in 212 (51.2%) and 64 patients (15.5%) experienced the recurrence more than once during the study follow-up. Progression of the cancer was observed in 106 patients (25.6%). Radical cystectomy was performed in 115 patients (27.8%) and there were 64 (15.5%) cancer specific deaths. For recurrence and progression probability, the concordance index of the CUETO models was 0.633 and 0.697 respectively. CUETO tables underestimated significantly the risk of recurrence and marginally the risk of progression in the first year of observation. For 5 years of observation, the trend for the recurrence was much less clear. On the contrary, there was slight overestimation in the risk of progression. The study is limited by retrospective nature., Conclusions: It was shown that the CUETO risk tables exhibit a fair discrimination for both disease recurrence and progression in T1G3 patients treated with BCG. CUETO scoring model underestimates the risk of tumor recurrence, but predicts well risk of progression., (Copyright © 2019 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Background/objectives: To assess the adherence to reporting confidence intervals (CI) for measures of association in multivariable regression models (MRM) in articles with observational design indexed in MEDLINE., Material and Methods: A literature search was conducted using the MEDLINE bibliographic database to obtain a representative sample of studies with observational design and applying MRM (logistic, linear, and Cox regression) (n=428). Proportions and 95% CI of articles reporting CI for measures of association in MRM were calculated. Percentage ratios (PRs) were also calculated to describe the change in CI reporting before and after the publication of the STROBE statement., Results: 188 of the 236 abstracts with measures of association (79.7%; 95% CI 74.5, 84.8) and 360 of the 428 main texts (84.1%; 80.6, 87.6) were provided with CI. A non-significant increase of 1% in the abstract, PR=1.01 (0.77, 1.29), and 7% in the main text, PR=1.07 (0.87, 1.28), occurred in the CI reporting after the publication of the STROBE guideline., Conclusions: The STROBE guideline recommendation on reporting CI should be more thoroughly followed., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Serological surveillance (serosurveillance) provides the most direct measure of herd immunity of vaccine-preventable diseases. Little is known about the opportunities and challenges of serosurveillance experiences, particularly pertussis., Objective: To describe the process of serosurveillance for vaccine-preventable diseases with an emphasis on the experience of pertussis in the metropolitan area of Antioquia (Valle de Aburrá) in 2015 and 2016 and analyze the contributions and challenges for its sustainability., Materials and Methods: We described the planning and conduction of serosurveillance of pertussis antibodies of mothers and in the umbilical cord at the time of delivery in eight hospitals based on random sampling and their capacity to advance the serosurveillance periodically. We compared the contributions and the challenges of this experience with other probabilistic and non-probabilistic programs., Results: We achieved the participation of hospitals and mothers respecting the delivery care process. We established a serum bank following ethical and technical guidelines. This program based on the random selection of hospitals and mothers has enabled the estimation of antibodies prevalence in mothers and in the umbilical cord, which has been possible given the high coverage of hospital care during childbirth at a lower cost and fewer risks than a population-based survey in conflictive areas. The main challenges for the sustainability of this program are the creation of stable jobs and access to funding and legal and methodological long-term frameworks., Conclusions: Hospital serosurveillance as described is an option to monitor the impact of vaccination on the population. Our experience could be reproduced in other regions under similar conditions if the above-mentioned challenges are solved.

Objective: The literature points to the possibility of carrying out an intervention, from primary prevention to rehabilitation after a cardiac event, towards decreasing the incidence of such cardiac events and facilitating the return to daily life. The objective was to determine the effect of a cardiac rehabilitation intervention over perceived selfefficacy for patients who have suffered a cardiac event., Methods: A community clinical trial, open, controlled, and randomised, was designed, and performed in primary care. To determine the sample size, the research team used the General Self-Efficacy Scale by Baessler and Schwarzer. The mean difference between groups considered of clinical relevance was of at least 6 points in the aforementioned General Self-Efficacy Scale. A precision of 95% and a test power of 80% were accepted. The result proposed a sample of 44 subjects in each group. Over 12 months, all subjects of legal age (N = 104), both sexes, that had concluded phase II in the cardiac rehabilitation unit of the university Hospital Puerta del Mar (Cadiz) were offered to participate in the study. The patients were informed about the study development, asking for their participation and providing them with a written informed consent. The subjects were randomly assigned to the intervention or control group through blind allocation (in a sealed envelope to the researcher), on a pre-set 2:1 ratio (two patients assigned to the intervention group to one assigned to the control group). A non-response or rejection to participate in the study record was made for the non-response analysis., Results: A total of 89 subjects were included in the statistical analysis (response rate of 85.57%), with an average age of 63.01 years (SD: 8.75). The main dependent variable was the scores difference between groups, comparing means before and after the intervention, through the General Self-Efficacy Scale by Baessler & Schwarner. A mean difference of 6.0972 points was obtained between the intervention and the control groups (p<0.0053; 95% CI -4.1950 to -10.29), as a result of a 3.3750 mean points increase (standard deviation: 7.01) in the intervention group and a 3.3750 mean points decrease (standard deviation: 7.19) in the control group. In relation to the possible changes to be detected through the Hamilton anxiety scale and the Beck's depression inventory, after finishing the intervention, an estimate and contrast of population means was made between groups for the scores difference in the Hamilton scale, determined on the final visit, with no significant differences found (t-student 0.1211; p <0.9 43). Similarly, no significant differences were found between the groups for the means obtained in the variable "Beck's depression inventory scores difference" (t-student -0.1281; p<0.8987)., Conclusions: The inclusion in cardiac rehabilitation programmes carried out in primary care improves the general perceived self-efficacy of patients who have suffered cardiac events., Competing Interests: Disclosure The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.

This article describes a methodology that allows an approach to alternative right-censored probabilistic models for the analysis of survival, different to those usually studied (exponential, gamma, Weibull, and log-normal distribution) since it is possible that the data do not always fit with sufficient precision due to existing distributions. The methodology used allows for greater flexibility when modeling extreme observations, generally located in the right tail of data distribution, which admits that some events still have the probability of occurring, which is not the case with traditional models and the Kaplan-Meier estimator, which estimates for the longest times, survival probabilities approximately equal to zero. To show the usefulness of the methodological proposal, we considered an application with real data that relates survival times of patients with colon cancer (CC).

Objective: To compare the concordance of complexity weights between Clinical Risk Groups (CRG) and Adjusted Morbidity Groups (AMG). To determine which one is the best predictor of patient admission. To optimise the method used to select the 0.5% of patients of higher complexity that will be included in an intervention protocol., Method: Cross-sectional analytical study in 18 Canary Island health areas, 385,049 citizens were enrolled, using sociodemographic variables from health cards; diagnoses and use of healthcare resources obtained from primary health care electronic records (PCHR) and the basic minimum set of hospital data; the functional status recorded in the PCHR, and the drugs prescribed through the electronic prescription system. The correlation between stratifiers was estimated from these data. The ability of each stratifier to predict patient admissions was evaluated and prediction optimisation models were constructed., Results: Concordance between weights complexity stratifiers was strong (rho = 0.735) and the correlation between categories of complexity was moderate (weighted kappa = 0.515). AMG complexity weight predicts better patient admission than CRG (AUC: 0.696 [0.695-0.697] versus 0.692 [0.691-0.693]). Other predictive variables were added to the AMG weight, obtaining the best AUC (0.708 [0.707-0.708]) the model composed by AMG, sex, age, Pfeiffer and Barthel scales, re-admissions and number of prescribed therapeutic groups., Conclusions: strong concordance was found between stratifiers, and higher predictive capacity for admission from AMG, which can be increased by adding other dimensions., (Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: The goals of this project were to compare both the anatomic and physiologic severity scores in trauma patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU), and to elaborate mixed statistical models to improve the precision of the scores., Methods: A prospective study of cohorts. The combined medical/surgical ICU in a secondary university hospital. Seven hundred and eighty trauma patients admitted to ICU older than 16 years of age. Anatomic models (ISS and NISS) were compared and combined with physiological models (T-RTS, APACHE II [APII], and MPM II). The probability of death was calculated following the TRISS method. The discrimination was assessed using ROC curves (ABC [CI 95%]), and the calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshoẃs H test. The mixed models were elaborated with the tree classification method type Chi Square Automatic Interaction Detection., Results: A 14% global mortality was recorded. The physiological models presented the best discrimination values (APII of 0.87 [0.84-0.90]). All models were affected by bad calibration (P<.01). The best mixed model resulted from the combination of APII and ISS (0.88 [0.83-0.90]). This model was able to differentiate between a 7.5% mortality for elderly patients with pathological antecedents and a 25% mortality in patients presenting traumatic brain injury, from a pool of patients with APII values ranging from 10 to 17 and an ISS threshold of 22., Conclusions: The physiological models perform better than the anatomical models in traumatic patients admitted to the ICU. Patients with low scores in the physiological models require an anatomic analysis of the injuries to determine their severity., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To develop a risk model to predict adverse outcomes within 30 days of discharge in adults attended by hospital emergency departments for an epileptic seizure., Methods: ACESUR (Acute Epileptic Seizures in the Emergency Department) is a prospective multicenter, multipurpose registry of cases obtained by systematic sampling. We made follow-up telephone calls to registered patients 30 days after discharge. Clinical variables for the index visit were extracted from the register and variables at 30 days were collected by telephone. The main outcome variable was the occurrence of any adverse outcome (seizure recurrence, emergency department revisit, hospitalization, or death) within 30 days of discharge., Results: Of the patients from the ACESUR registry discharged from 18 hospitals, we included 489 (74%) with complete follow-up information. The median (interquartile range) age was de 48 (34-66) years. One hundred forty-four patients (29.4%) experienced an adverse outcome within 30 days of discharge. Factors included in the ACESUR risk model were generalized nonconvulsive tonic-clonic epileptic seizure as the reason for the index visit (odds ratio [OR], 2.42; 95% CI, 1.49-3.90; P<.001), ongoing use of 3 or more medications (OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.28-3.07; P=.002), and an emergency visit for any reason in the 6 months prior to the index event (OR, 2.34; 95% CI, 1.47-3.70; P<.001). Each factor contributed 1 point to the risk score. A score of 3 was associated with a 62.2% risk of an adverse outcome within 30 days, a score of 2 was associated with a 38.5% risk, a score of 1 with a 25.9% risk, and a score of 0 with a 10.9% risk. The area under the curve receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.675-0.772; P=.025)., Conclusion: The ACESUR risk model may provide a useful score for identifying patients at high risk of an adverse outcome within 30 days of emergency department discharge after an epileptic seizure.

Introduction: We studied the trend and seasonality of community-acquired Escherichia coli resistance and quantified its correlation with the previous use of certain antibiotics., Methods: A time series study of resistant community-acquired E. coli isolates and their association with antibiotic use was conducted in a Primary Health Care Area from 2008 to 2012. A Poisson regression model was constructed to estimate the trend and seasonality of E. coli resistance., Results: A significant increasing trend in mean E. coli resistance to cephalosporins, aminoglycosides and nitrofurantoin was observed. Seasonal resistance to ciprofloxacin and amoxicillin-clavulanic acid was significantly higher in autumn-winter. There was a delay of 7, 10 and 12 months between the use of cotrimoxazole (P<0.038), fosfomycin (P<0.024) and amoxicillin-clavulanic acid (P<0.015), respectively, and the occurrence of E. coli resistance., Conclusions: An average delay of 10 months between the previous use of amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, cotrimoxazole and fosfomycin and the appearance of resistant community-acquired E. coli strains was detected., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.)

Background: There are conflicting results on the relationship between neuroticism and suicidal ideation in community population. The objectives of this study were to estimate the magnitude and direction of the association between neuroticism and suicide ideation, and to analyze the influence of moderator variables on the effect size., Methods: A systematic review and a meta-analysis were carried out. The search for studies was conducted in PubMed/MEDLINE, IME, Lilacs, CINAHL, and EMBASE, until January 2015. A manual search was also carried out and main researchers were contacted. The inclusion criteria were: (a) studies of the association between neuroticism and suicidal ideation; (b) observational and descriptive studies; (c) studies carried out with community population over 18 years; (d) in any geographic region; and (e) written in English, Spanish, French, Portuguese or Italian. The random-effects model was applied to obtain the mean effect size and to explore moderators., Results: Thirteen articles focused on the association between neuroticism and suicide ideation were included in the meta-analysis. The mean effect size was r+ = 0.446 (IC 95%: 0.266-0.595). Publication bias was discarded as a threat against the validity of the results. A predictive model was stablished with two moderator variables: gender and type of self-report to measure neuroticism., Conclusions: Neuroticism can be considered as a risk factor for suicide ideation. This result is important to prevent both suicidal ideation and suicide behavior.

Random allocation of treatment or intervention is the key feature of clinical trials and divides patients into treatment groups that are approximately balanced for baseline, and therefore comparable covariates except for the variable treatment of the study. However, in observational studies, where treatment allocation is not random, patients in the treatment and control groups often differ in covariates that are related to intervention variables. These imbalances in covariates can lead to biased estimates of the treatment effect. However, randomized clinical trials are sometimes not feasible for ethical, logistical, economic or other reasons. To resolve these situations, interest in the field of clinical research has grown in designing studies that are most similar to randomized experiments using observational (i.e. non-random) data. Observational studies using propensity score analysis methods have been increasing in the scientific papers of Intensive Care. Propensity score analyses attempt to control for confounding in non-experimental studies by adjusting for the likelihood that a given patient is exposed. However, studies with propensity indexes may be confusing, and intensivists are not familiar with this methodology and may not fully understand the importance of this technique. The objectives of this review are: to describe the fundamentals of propensity index methods; to present the techniques to adequately evaluate propensity index models; to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of these techniques., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.)

Peritoneal infection is a common problem that has a negative impact on the survival of patients and the technique. The early administration of peritoneal infection treatment reduces complications. The goal of this study is to propose a multicomponent index (MUL+DO) for the quick and efficient diagnosis of peritoneal infection. We selected a training cohort of peritoneal effluent samples which were analysed by Multistix ® 10 SG Siemens test strips for leukocyte detection. Then, each sample was examined according to the gold standard: number of leukocytes, polymorphonuclear percentage and microbiological culture. We constructed the MUL+DO index by adding one point to the MULTISTIX [0-1-2-3] modified chromatic scale if the patient reported pain. The MUL+DO index ranged from 0 to 4. A model validation cohort was then created. MUL+DO was applied to each sample and leukocytes and polymorphonuclear percentage were also assessed. The training cohort ultimately included 134 samples, 34 of which with infection (25.4% [17.6-33.1]). Samples with a MUL+DO value greater than 1 presented a sensitivity and specificity of 100%. The validation cohort included 100 samples with 16 infections (16% [8.3-23.7]). Assuming a sample with a MUL+DO value greater than 1 to be positive, we obtained a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 95.2%. The MUL+DO index applied to the training cohort showed a perfect separation of the positive and negative populations. All positive patients presented a score ≥2. In the validation cohort, the MUL+DO reported a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 95.2%., (Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)