1. Dynamic assessment of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores for predicting ischemic stroke and major bleeding in atrial fibrillation patients.
- Author
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Serna MJ, Rivera-Caravaca JM, López-Gálvez R, Soler-Espejo E, Lip GYH, Marín F, and Roldán V
- Subjects
- Humans, Male, Female, Aged, Risk Assessment methods, Anticoagulants therapeutic use, Follow-Up Studies, Risk Factors, Middle Aged, Stroke etiology, Stroke epidemiology, Stroke prevention & control, Stroke diagnosis, Atrial Fibrillation complications, Atrial Fibrillation diagnosis, Atrial Fibrillation drug therapy, Ischemic Stroke diagnosis, Ischemic Stroke epidemiology, Ischemic Stroke etiology, Hemorrhage epidemiology, Hemorrhage chemically induced, Hemorrhage diagnosis
- Abstract
Introduction and Objectives: Stroke and bleeding risks in atrial fibrillation (AF) are often assessed at baseline to predict outcomes years later. We investigated whether dynamic changes in CHA
2 DS2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores over time modify risk prediction., Methods: We included patients with AF who were stable while taking vitamin K antagonists. During a 6-year follow-up, all ischemic strokes/transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) and major bleeding events were recorded. CHA2 DS2 -VASc and HAS-BLED were recalculated every 2-years and tested for clinical outcomes at 2-year periods., Results: We included 1361 patients (mean CHA2 DS2 -VASc and HAS-BLED 4.0±1.7 and 2.9±1.2). During the follow-up, 156 (11.5%) patients had an ischemic stroke/TIA and 269 (19.8%) had a major bleeding event. Compared with the baseline CHA2 DS2 -VASc, the CHA2 DS2 -VASc recalculated at 2 years had higher predictive ability for ischemic stroke/TIA during the period from 2 to 4 years. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) showed improvements in sensitivity and better reclassification. The CHA2 DS2 -VASc recalculated at 4 years had better predictive performance than the baseline CHA2 DS2 -VASc during the period from 4 to 6 years, with an improvement in IDI and an enhancement of the reclassification. The recalculated HAS-BLED at 2-years had higher predictive ability than the baseline score for major bleeding during the period from 2 to 4 years, with significant improvements in sensitivity and reclassification. A slight enhancement in sensitivity was observed with the HAS-BLED score recalculated at 4 years compared with the baseline score., Conclusions: In AF patients, stroke and bleeding risks are dynamic and change over time. The CHA2 DS2 -VASc and HAS-BLED scores should be regularly reassessed, particularly for accurate stroke risk prediction., (Copyright © 2024 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)- Published
- 2024
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