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The aim of the article is to study the demand for educational services in Ukraine under the influence of economic, political and social factors that are effective in the country. Among the main factors influencing the demand for educational services are the COVID-19 pandemic, the full-scale invasion of the russian federation on the territory of Ukraine and, as a result, migration processes, the destruction of educational infrastructure, changes in the structure of the labor market, budget constraints, reduction of funding at the expense of households, etc. The projected value of the reduction in demand for educational services (number of entrants) by 2025 based on the studied parameters is on average 10%. A correlation and regression analysis was carried out to study the demand for educational services of higher education institutions (HEIs) depending on the main demographic, economic, political and social indicators. According to the analysis of the correlation matrix, the factors that have a high level of closeness of interconnection and a direct impact on the number of entrants to HEIs are the number of school graduates, the number of population aged 16–59 years and the employment rate. Factors such as a decrease in education costs, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the occupation have an inverse impact on the number of entrants. The paper considers the study of the effectiveness of the State regulation of admission to the budget form of education in individual specialties. For this purpose, data on the results of the 2023 admission campaign from the Unified State Electronic Database on Education were used. It is found that in 2023, the highest demand is for specialties related to the social and philological direction (Psychology, Journalism), as well as those that have a well-established importance in terms of prestige and employment (Dentistry, International Relations, specialties in the IT profile, etc.). On the other hand, the lowest demand is for engineering specialties, where the competition is two applications for three budget-funded places. The article uses econometric methods of analysis of digital information, analyzes the influence model between the indicators of the passing score and the general competition. Recommendations are provided on the revision of the policy of admission and competitive selection of students in certain specialties, taking into account the existing established trends in the demand for engineering specialties and taking into account the factor of occupation of the country’s territory and, as a result, changes in the structure of production and needs in the labor market.

The relevance of the study is due to the need to improve the efficiency of personnel management in agriculture at the meso-level, which is caused by the aggravation of the competition, directly related to globalization and the instability of intercountry interaction. In many regions of Russia, there are negative trends in the social and labor sphere of rural areas and a decrease in the share of agricultural enterprises. In these conditions, the priority is the development of import substitution and the active creation and implementation of innovations, which increases the requirements for professional education. The purpose of the article is to assess the impact of vocational education of personnel of agricultural organizations in municipal districts of the region on the annual volume of their production. In preparing the article, we used: monographic method; systemic, sectoral, decomposition and complex methodological approaches; structural-temporal analysis and regression analysis (in kind and in standardized form). A methodology has been developed for analyzing the staffing of agricultural organizations in municipal districts of the region and the impact of vocational education and its components on the volume of production; established an annual decrease in the number of people actually employed in agriculture; by constructing multivariate regression models, the influence of the number in groups of personnel categories on the volume of production of agricultural organizations in current prices was revealed. Models of closeness of connection are given on a natural scale and in standardized form, the latter provide an opportunity to compare the impact of each of the factors on the volume of production. The groups were identified that have direct and inverse relationships with the performance indicator. The obtained quantitative assessments of existing processes (including latent ones) significantly expand information support in the formation of personnel policy both at the meso-level and in organizations. Elimination of the existing negative phenomena will ensure an increase in the efficiency of agriculture as a production system. In the future, the continuation of this study is relevant, in particular, in the sectoral context, both in complex industries and in subsectors.

The role of accounting (public-financial) with special emphasis on financial reforms and budgetary responsibility for the preparation of financial statements is increasingly becoming necessary and important to increase the economic development and financial stability of the country during governance. In order to have financial reforms, there must be responsibility in public accounting as well as in the analysis and financial reporting by the responsible staff at both levels. It is therefore important to have this cooperation in all areas of policy making, defining the responsibilities of the two levels. The purpose of this article is to show about accounting, reforms and budget responsibilities in the financial statements at both levels of financial-budgetary governance. The research was conducted through a questionnaire according to the practices of the OECD, the IMF and the World Bank. The questionnaire was compiled according to Likert scales and was distributed at the governing levels to the state of Kosovo, its completion was done accurately by attaching audited financial reports for each variable taken for study. The data for all variables were processed via the SPSS and R program, which allowed to draw conclusions and recommendations for all variables at both levels. To achieve the results, econometric tests and analyzes were used, such as: descriptive analysis, testing of two samples, analysis of testing of a dependent variable, etc. Based on the results, it is emphasized that there should be reforms for the safeguarding of public money, fair allocation of expenditures, securing of funds and that the responsibilities at both levels differ from the expectations that should occur in the accounting of financial statements.

Ukrainian higher education is in a state of reforming, which aimes at improving its quality and is accompanied by a reduction in its generality. During the admission campaign in 2020, the concept of «indicative self-cost of educational services» was for the first time used, the purpose of which was to reduce the demand for training at the expense of individuals (contract) in the State-owned higher education institutions. The publication considers the study of the efficiency of the State regulation of qualifying for a government scholarship as to certain specialties. For this purpose, data on the results of the 2020 admission campaign from the unified State electronic database on education were used. The educational space was divided into several subspaces, for each of these the ratio between the number of applications submitted and the license volume was obtained. It was found that the most in demand for a long time are specialties related to jurisprudence, in the smallest demand are specialties of engineering, where the competition is two applications for three budget places (1.50). The publication uses econometric methods of analysis of digital information, assessments of the elasticity of the introductory score according to the general competition and its marginal value are carried out. Recommendations on refusal of expert assessments in the regulation of the students’ admission and redistribution of financial resources in favor of high-demand specialties are provided.

The article uses econometric methods to build the models of supply and demand for educational services concerning the specialty 051 «Economics» and the educational program «Economic Cybernetics». Samples in the models include almost the entire list of higher education institutions, providing studies in the specialty 051 «Economics» and the educational program «Economic Cybernetics», according to data as of 2019. As a quantitative indicator of the offer, the article uses the cost of educational services for the first academic year under the terms of the contract, the demand – the number of applications submitted. As explaining variables considered as a number of objective characteristics of higher education institutions (HEI) are used the following: the number of budget-financed and licensed places, status, form of ownership, and others. As a subjective characteristic, the concept of «elite» is used, defined by binary change. Using quantitative experiments (based on assessments of the adequacy parameters of the models) it is determined that the elite ones should include the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, the National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute», the National University of «Kyiv-Mohyla Academy». The hypothesis of use by the State-owned HEI of the dumping price strategy has been justified in the modeling of the proposal. Differences have been found in attitudes towards the objective and subjective characteristics of HIA by the administration of HIA (supply) and by applicants (demand).

The article describes the results of the study of the certain factors influencing the development of small business in the Russian regions. We focused on assessing the influence of the demographic factor, namely the number of youth. This topic is relevant due to the outflow of youth from the majority of regions and the implementation of the national project for the development of business. We hypothesise there is a positive relation between the number of youth in a region and the number of small businesses there. Further, to prove our hypothesis, we aimed to confirm the interaction of two processes. Firstly, the support of youth’s entrepreneurial initiatives reduces the migration mood. Secondly, the preservation of youth in a region stimulates the development of small businesses by enforcing the performance indicators of the national project. This hypothesis has not previously been tested in Russian academic papers. Using foreign and Russian studies on the problem of development factors, we divided them into three nominal groups: «classification», «single-factor» and «model». Constructing the model, we chose a combination of individual exogenous factors of small business’ development in the regions: geographical, infrastructure, and financial ones. Moreover, based on the eclectic theory of entrepreneurship, we studied some supply factors: education, unemployment, and demography. We considered the population aged from 20 to 34 as an actualized demographic factor. The dependent variables were the number of small and micro businesses, the number of individual entrepreneurs, and the number of small businesses (as the sum of the first two indicators). We built separate models for each indicator. The first two models have identified the stability and confirmed the unidirectional results. Additionally, we introduced in the models a contextual factor, namely the crises of 2008–2009 and 2014. The econometric assessment has shown that the number of youth positively influences the growth of small businesses and individual entrepreneurship in regions. The indicator is significant at the level of 1%, it is stable and obvious for all model specifications.

The need to rethink, clarify and adjust the existing strategic planning document – Forecast of long-term socio-economic development of municipal formation city district «the City of Komsomolsk-on-Amur» for the period up to 2032 has determined the relevance of the study and also identified the need to build economic and mathematical models on the basis of which, under current legislation, performed budget forecasting development of the municipality in the long term. This goal is also relevant for the development of recommendations to improve the system of strategic planning of the municipality. Based on this goal, the following tasks of the study are determined: to analyze the interdependence of socio-economic indicators of the municipality and to develop a forecast model of socio-economic development of the municipality (on the example of the city district «Komsomolsk-on-Amur»). The article reveals the correlation between the values of macroeconomic indicators of socio-economic development of the municipality – the city district «Komsomolsk-on-Amur». On the basis of correlation analysis, the indicators that showed a high degree of mutual consistency in the change of signs were selected. Regression analysis on the basis of which developed a linear model of multiple regression, which includes industrial output, investment in fixed capital, number of employed in economy (annual average). The interpretation of the model is performed. Its quality was checked. The significance of the multiple regression equation is estimated using Fisher's criterion. The third premise of the least squares method – the absence of a systematic relationship between the values of the random component in the observations is verified. To calculate the forecast values of the industrial production volume on the basis of extrapolation methods, the expected values of exogenous variables are found: «Investment in fixed capital» (power function), «Number of employees in the economy» (polynom of the second degree). Directions of improvement of forecasting system indicators are offered. According to the results of the developed forecasts, it is possible to clarify the program activities and priorities of social and economic development. When calculating the forecast values, such formalized methods using time series elements as regression analysis and trend extrapolation were used as the main ones. Необходимость переосмысления, уточнения и корректировки действующего документа стратегического планирования – Прогноза долгосрочного социально-экономического развития муниципального образования городского округа «Город Комсомольск-на-Амуре» на период до 2032 г., обусловила актуальность исследования, а также выявила потребность в построении экономико-математической модели, на основе которой, согласно действующему законодательству, осуществляется бюджетное прогнозирование развития муниципального образования на долгосрочный период. Поставленная цель, кроме того, актуальна для разработки рекомендаций по совершенствованию системы стратегического планирования муниципального образования. Исходя из поставленной цели, определены следующие задачи исследования: провести анализ взаимозависимости социально-экономических показателей муниципального образования и разработать прогнозную модель социально-экономического развития муниципального образования (на примере городского округа «Город Комсомольск-на-Амуре»). В статье выявлена корреляционная зависимость между значениями макроэкономических показателей социально-экономического развития муниципального образования – городской округ «Город Комсомольск-на-Амуре». На основании корреляционного анализа отобраны показатели, проявившие высокую степень взаимной согласованности в изменении признаков. Проведен регрессионный анализ, на основании которого разработана линейная модель множественной регрессии, в которую включены объем промышленного производства, инвестиции в основной капитал, численность занятых в экономике (среднегодовая). Выполнена интерпретация модели. Проведена проверка ее качества. С помощью критерия Фишера оценена значимость уравнения множественной регрессии. Проверена третья предпосылка метода наименьших квадратов – отсутствие систематической связи между значениями случайной составляющей в наблюдениях. Для расчета прогнозных значений объема промышленного производства на основе экстраполяционных методов найдены ожидаемые значения экзогенных переменных: «Инвестиции в основной капитал» (степенная функция), «Численность занятых в экономике» (полином второй степени). Предложены направления совершенствования системы прогнозирования показателей. По результатам разработанных прогнозов возможно уточнение программных мероприятий и приоритетов социально-экономического развития. При расчете прогнозных значений в качестве основных использованы такие формализованные методы с использованием элементов временных рядов, как регрессионный анализ и экстраполяция трендов.

The aim of the work is to identify the relationship between regional economic growth, innovation, the level of human capital development and the knowledge spillovers.The methodology is based on a quantitative assessment of the impact of knowledge spillovers and technological innovations on the economic growth of regions. Spatial econometrics tools are used as a method of modeling the relationships between these parameters. The sampling of time series was carried out using panel analysis, which allowed to take into account the individual characteristics of the regions correlating with the variables in the model inherent in each of them separately. Based on the provision on the effectiveness of economic development, depending on the accumulated and realized human capital, along withthe economic conditions ofthe region, a social filter indicator was calculated. Using this indicator allowed us to identify key factors of innovative development that contribute to the knowledge spillovers. Based on statistics on innovation in Kazakhstan for the period 1990-2018 the relationship between R&D, innovation and economic growth is assessed taking into account the specifics of human capital in the regions of Kazakhstan. The calculations, in accordance with the proposed models, confirmed the hypothesis about the positive impact of costs on the development of technological innovations on the regional economic growth rates. Accordingly, it is concluded that R&D can be borrowed and introduced by other territories and spread further in this direction along the production chain.

Vietnam builds the market economy from the planned economy, in which development plans, especially the medium-term socio-economic development plans, were determined by the leading economic management tools. Currently, the development plans remain the important tools of economic management. However, the contents and methodologies for development planning have changed considerably. The plans have been built according to the direction of the market and consider macroeconomic forecasts as the most important input for planning. The purpose of this paper is to briefly present the structure of a macro-econometric model for medium-term socio-economic development planning in Vietnam. The model is based on the main ideas of the forecasting procedures and the system of forecast models for strategic planning in the Russian Federation. Furthermore, the model utilizes the experience of macro-econometric models in other countries. This model is based on the approaches of supply and demand, and is organized into blocks that have a close relationship to combine forecasts from the built model and using judgmental methods in a favourable way. The model can fully forecast the needs of socio-economic development planning. It is also used to build forecast scenarios and to assess the impact of shocks and economic policies.

The population health indicator, which has an impact on the development of labor potential and its demographic component, has been studied. A correlation analysis of the factors influencing the state of health of the population was performed. It has been proven that there is a strong relationship between life expectancy as an indicator of health and the factors that characterize the health care system, economic development of the state, quality of food and lifestyle. Spatial econometric models of the relationship between effective variable life expectancy and factor characteristics of different nature based on statistical material from 38 European countries were created. The obtained models have high values of adequacy and accuracy criteria, as well as satisfactory predictive quality.

This paper is devoted to the study of possibilities for using the mathematical apparatus of natural science research, in particular the parabolic type differential equations and stochastic modeling methods in order to explain the behavioral features of financial market. An econometric model has been presented that explains the market prices dynamics based on Burger’s differential equation, which is used for modeling liquids and gas motion. The model’s structure allows to account for traditional dynamic features of financial market that is, in particular, related to traders behavioral patterns, as well as such price effects associated with the presence of local linear trend. Model testing has been performed on minute market data of pound sterling to US dollar exchange rate for the whole 2017 year and confirmed the possibility of using it for predicting the considered currency pair values with the accuracy of 57.2% measured by the percentage of correct forecast direction, while the value of the corresponding indicator for a random walk model, additionally reviewed for comparison purposes, was only 49.8%.

The period, when a person starts and completes his or her professional carrier and labour participation, in general, coincides with the age when the self-preservation behaviour develops. It is a time when a person aims for a healthy and safe lifestyle. During this period, an individual assumes the main standards, values of the self-preservation behaviour inherent in an ethnic, social and cultural macro-environment. To research the sociocultural factors of survival, we applied econometric modelling to demographic processes using the discrete and probabilistic indicators of the mortality tables of male and female in economically active age. The econometric model included the elements of spatiotemporal characteristics of territories. These characteristics are interrelated with the indicators of survival probability and the indicator of average life expectancy in the regions of Russia. We choose the major sociocultural factors by the correlation ratio of indicators and their sensitivity. The econometric analysis has revealed a high degree of sensitivity of a territorial variation of demographic and sociocultural factors in the regions of Russia, including a gender aspect. The most significant socio-economic factors, which determine the self-preservation behaviour of males, are the following: 1) the size of Gross Regional Product per capita; 2) quality of health infrastructure; 3) fixed investments; 4) population with monetary income under the subsistence minimum (share coefficient of income differentials). The female have the same hierarchy of socio-economic factors, except for the sensitivity of variables to the regional differentiation of signs. The household poverty factor has little significance for the women and it is the main difference between male and female. The built model has shown the predictive importance in the assessment of the above-mentioned factors in short and medium-term prospects.

The consumer price index is a key indicator of the inflation level in Russia. It is important for the Central Bank and Government in decision-making process. There is a strong need for high-quality analysis and accurate forecast of this index. Modelling and forecasting of consumer price index as a key indicator of inflation are relevant issues in current macroeconomic conditions. The article is dedicated to development of quality short-term forecast of consumer inflation level, with the impact of seasonal factor. Two classes of models (vector autoregression and time series models) are considered. It was shown that vector autoregression model of the dependency between consumer price index and nominal effective exchange rate is worse for the proposes of inflation forecast then non-linear model with structural components and conventional heteroscedasticity. The practical significance of this work is that the developed approach to the forecasting of the consumer price index adjusted of seasonal factor can be very helpful for the purpose of proper assessment and regulation of inflation.

Topic. This article examines the impact of remittances on the economy of recipient countries on the basis of econometric models.Purpose. The authors set the aim to justify a point of view, according to which the influence of remittances on economic growth and investment in the CIS countries is dependent on the change of financial development variable.Methodology. The research methodology is based on the interpretation of models, which allows answering following question: how does the level of financial development in the recipient country affect the degree of influence of remittances on economic growth. For assessment of the cyclical properties of remittances’ flows, we used Hodrick-Prescott filter technique. The evaluation of this impact has been conducted in accordance with the extended version of the neoclassical model using the system generalized method of moments (S-GMM). We also used a threshold estimation as an alternative test for resistance to errors.Results. We present threshold model with a threshold parameter. We also propose a definition of pro-cyclical, counter-cyclical and acyclic remittances, based on the types of correlation between the cyclical components of real remittances and real GDP in the home countries of migrants. The resulting conclusion states that remittance has a positive impact on economic growth in less developed financial systems. Remittance de facto act as substitutes for the ‘weak’ financial services, giving people the opportunity to meet the needs in lending and insurance, which are not able to provide by the market. On the other hand, remittance has a negative impact on economic growth in countries with more developed financial sectors.Conclusions. It is concluded that in most CIS countries, remittance is pro-cyclical ones yet in varying degrees: while improving the economic situation in the migrants’ country they are more inclined to send remittance in search of investment opportunities.

The paper deals with the development of integral indices to assess the overall state of the economy. A method of calculating three indices is described: leading, synchronous and lagging with the focus on the leading index that detects turning points in the dynamics of the economy. All the three indices are calculated for the Russian economy as of 1999-2015; the forecast for April 2016 was made with the prediction error of 2.3%. The analysis of the results leads to the conclusion that the value of the lead lag has decreased compared with the previous periods and this is an evidence of the increased rate of changes in the industrial production dynamics. Moreover, the difference between the lead (4 months) and lag (6 months) of the leading and lagging indices, respectively, relative to the rate of change in the industrial production reflects the specifics of the structure of the Russian economy which is dominated by the export-oriented raw materials sector. In the calculation of an aggregate index, the problem of comparing partial indices having different economic meaning and measurement units is solved by significant adjustment of each index.

The article describes the econometric model of corporation income that was based on the statistics of relevant information of exchange markets and on the financial statements of the companies. The result was revealed the dependence of corporation revenue by indicators such as their market capitalization. The work presents recommendations for maximizing the corporation revenue that was based on the above indicators.

This paper empirically analyses the determinants of foreign direct investment inflows into the Russian regions. This problem has become highly relevant for the necessary modernization of the Russian economy after the recent economic slowdown and sharp decrease in budget revenues. The authors model foreign direct investment flows with the use of the gravity approach according to which investment flows are positively correlated with the size of the investor’s country as well as the size of the recipient region and are negatively correlated with the distance between investor and recipient. The empirical analysis is based on a constructed database consisting of the foreign direct investment flows from 179 investor countries into 78 Russian regions for the period 2006–2013. The authors apply the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood method and identify the following factors determining foreign direct investment inflows into the Russian economy: the gross domestic product of the investor’s country, the gross domestic product per capita in the recipient region, the distance from the investor to Moscow, the openness of the region, the economic situation in the region, the innovative capacity of the region and the foreign direct investment of the previous period. Interestingly, the distance from the recipient region to Moscow matters for the regions in the western part of Russia (relatively close to Moscow) but is not significant for the regions in the eastern part (remote regions).

The goal of the article lies in forecasting tendencies of the current demand of the local labour market on the basis of the method of statistical equations of dependencies and correlation and regression analysis for prolongation of relevant processes at the meso-level. The article considers a forecast model for co-ordination of dynamics of vacancies depending on socio-economic indicators of city development, which is formed on the basis of the method of statistical equations. This method requires identification of parameters of equations of single-factor dependencies and ratios of communication stability. On the basis of calculated values of these parameters and on the basis of economic and mathematical modelling of certain macro-economic indicators, the article builds equations of multiple regression, use of which would allow forecasting the current demand in the local labour market in the middle-term perspective. The prospect of further studies is forecasting the level of current balance of the local labour market, using the provided methods for forecasting the current supply.

This paper presents the results of an empirical study on exchange rate elasticity of merchandise exports and imports of Ukraine. The scientific novelty of the results is that to assess the sensitivity volume of foreign trade flows of change rate in econometric models (one-factor and multi-linear regression equations) were used partial indices of real effective exchange rate (REER), calculated separately for imports and exports. The author presents the results of modelling elasticity estimated for key commodity groups of exports and imports and shows that 41% of exports and 72% of imports of goods during the 2003-2012 years were sensitive to changes in the REER. Calculations showed that the selected time period's short-rate elasticity of imports of goods is higher than the exchange rate elasticity of exports. With increasing partial indices (respectively, exports and imports) of the real effective exchange rate of hryvnia to 1% for the quarter (strengthening of hryvnia), exports of goods may decline by an average of 4.5 to 6.3%; and imports may increase by 6.9-7.2%. Exchange Rate is not the key among the factors that determine the volume of exports and imports in the short-term period; therefore, more research is needed to other factors in order to get a better picture and justified estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article identifies the key factors that affect the activity of the industries of the tourism companies. The impact of these factors on the functioning and development of the tourism enterprises are evaluated with the help of the correlation-regression analysis, selected the most significant factors and proposed a line of econometric models, which describe the data dependence. Its analyse is conducted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]