1. Improving the efficiency of investments in construction based on the project risk management methodology
- Subjects
внÑÑÑеннÑÑ Ð½Ð¾Ñма ÑенÑабелÑноÑÑи ,net present value ,ÑпÑавление ÑиÑками ,risk management ,risk optimization ,risk adjustment ,попÑавка на ÑиÑк ,опÑимизаÑÐ¸Ñ ÑиÑка ,investment project ,risk scenarios ,инвеÑÑиÑионнÑй пÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑ ,ÑиÑк-ÑÑенаÑии ,internal rate of return ,ÑиÑÑÑй диÑконÑиÑованнÑй Ð´Ð¾Ñ Ð¾Ð´ - Abstract
ÐадаÑи, коÑоÑÑе ÑÑавилиÑÑ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¸ÑÑледованиÑ: â пÑоанализиÑоваÑÑ ÑеоÑеÑиÑеÑкие и пÑикладнÑе аÑпекÑÑ ÑпÑÐ°Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑиÑками инвеÑÑиÑионно-ÑÑÑоиÑелÑнÑÑ Ð¿ÑоекÑов; â ÑазÑабоÑаÑÑ Ð¼ÐµÑÐ¾Ð´Ð¸ÐºÑ Ð¿ÑинÑÑÐ¸Ñ ÑеÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¾ ÑелеÑообÑазноÑÑи инвеÑÑиÑий в ÑÑÑоиÑелÑнÑй пÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑ Ð½Ð° оÑнове ÑаÑÑеÑа ÑкономиÑеÑÐºÐ¸Ñ ÑиÑков и оÑенке заÑÑÐ°Ñ Ð½Ð° ÑпÑавление ÑиÑками; â показаÑÑ Ð½Ð° пÑимеÑе иÑÑледÑемого инвеÑÑиÑионно-ÑÑÑоиÑелÑного пÑоекÑа возможноÑÑÑ Ð¿ÑÐ¸Ð¼ÐµÐ½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑазÑабоÑанной меÑодики и оÑениÑÑ Ð²Ð¾Ð·Ð¼Ð¾Ð¶Ð½Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ð¸Ð½Ð²ÐµÑÑиÑованиÑ. ÐÐ»Ñ ÑаÑÑмаÑÑиваемого инвеÑÑиÑионного пÑоекÑа ÑÑÑоиÑелÑÑÑва многоÑÑажного дома бÑли ÑÑоÑмиÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ ÑÑи ваÑианÑа базиÑного ÑÑенаÑиÑ: опÑимиÑÑиÑеÑкий, ÑеалиÑÑиÑеÑкий (ÑÑедний) и пеÑÑимиÑÑиÑеÑкий, а Ñакже по ÑÑи ваÑианÑа Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¾Ð¶Ð¸Ð´Ð°ÐµÐ¼ÑÑ ÑиÑк-ÑÑенаÑиев ÑÑÐµÑ Ñипов: 1) ÑÑиÑÑÐ²Ð°ÐµÑ ÑолÑко веÑоÑÑноÑÑи каждого из возможнÑÑ Ð²Ð°ÑианÑов ÑооÑвеÑÑÑвÑÑÑего ÑÑенаÑиÑ; 2) ÑÑиÑÑÐ²Ð°ÐµÑ Ð²ÐµÑоÑÑноÑÑи каждого из возможнÑÑ Ð²Ð°ÑианÑов ÑооÑвеÑÑÑвÑÑÑего ÑÑенаÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¸ веÑоÑÑноÑÑÑ Â«ÐºÐ°ÑаÑÑÑоÑÑ» в каждÑй год ÑеализаÑии пÑоекÑа; 3) ÑооÑвеÑÑÑвÑÐµÑ ÑлÑÑÐ°Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ неопÑеделенноÑÑи ÑÑловий ÑеализаÑии пÑоекÑа (ÑлÑÑÐ°Ñ Ð¸Ð½ÑеÑвалÑной неопÑеделенноÑÑи). Ðо ÑезÑлÑÑаÑам ÑаÑÑеÑов ÑиÑк-ÑÑенаÑиев, а Ñакже поÑле опÑимизаÑии ÑкономиÑеÑкого ÑиÑка Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾ÑÑÑ Ñ ÐµÐ´Ð¶Ð¸ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ñделок, индекÑаÑии Ñен и ÑÑÑÐ°Ñ Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð±Ñло заклÑÑено, иÑÑледÑемÑй пÑÐ¾ÐµÐºÑ Ð¼Ð¾Ð¶Ð½Ð¾ ÑекомендоваÑÑ Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑеализаÑии. Таким обÑазом, в Ñ Ð¾Ð´Ðµ диÑÑеÑÑаÑионной ÑабоÑÑ Ð±Ñло ÑаÑÑмоÑÑена возможноÑÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð²ÑÑÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÑÑекÑивноÑÑи Ð²Ð»Ð¾Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸Ð½Ð²ÐµÑÑиÑий на оÑнове меÑодики ÑпÑÐ°Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑиÑками в ÑÑÑоиÑелÑÑÑве., The tasks that were solved during the study: - to analyze the theoretical and applied aspects of risk management of investment and construction projects; - develop a methodology for making a decision on the feasibility of investing in a construction project based on the calculation of economic risks and an assessment of the costs of risk management; - to show, using the example of the investment and construction project under study, the possibility of applying the developed methodology and to assess the possibility of investing. For the considered investment project for the construction of a multi-storey building, three versions of the baseline scenario were formed: optimistic, realistic (average) and pessimistic, as well as three options each for the expected risk scenarios of three types: 1) takes into account only the probabilities of each of the possible variants of the corresponding scenario; 2) takes into account the probabilities of each of the possible variants of the corresponding scenario and the probability of a "catastrophe" in each year of the project;6 3) corresponds to the case of complete uncertainty of the project implementation conditions (the case of interval uncertainty). Based on the results of calculating risk scenarios, as well as after optimizing economic risk using hedging transactions, price indexation and insurance, it was concluded that the project under study can be recommended for implementation. Thus, in the course of the dissertation work, the possibility of increasing the efficiency of investment investments based on the methodology of risk management in construction was considered.
- Published
- 2021
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