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The frequency of seeking emergency medical care (EC) can be mediated by the characteristics of the patient's social status, his health literacy (HL) but not only by the clinical signs of the disease, health status. The goal of the cross-sectional survey was to identify factors determining the frequency of applying for EC by the young-aged, middle-aged (18-59 years) and elderly (60-74 years) patients of the primary health organizations in the Arkhangelsk Region and the Komi Republic (North-West Russia). Logistic regression (LR) was used to identify factors mediating the fact of applying for EC; zero-inflated negative binomial regression (ZINB) - to identify factors mediating the frequency of appeals. The majority of elderly respondents in the Arkhangelsk Region (72,5%) and the Komi Republic (74,1%) applied for EC at least once during the calendar year; among the young-aged and middle-aged respondents - 45,3% and 52,1% respectively. In the group of young-aged and middle-aged respondents, a higher frequency of appeals for EC is mediated by the age, low self-esteem of the well-being and health status, a chronic disease(s) affecting daily well-being in anamnesis, a low level of HL; in the group of the elderly respondents - by the fact of absence of a spouse, low self-esteem of the well-being, a chronic disease(s) affecting daily well-being in anamnesis, low levels of HL respectively. The obtained results obtained can be used to identify the «risk group» of patients of the primary health organizations who have a higher probability of applying for EC, and to organize additional preventive work with the min primary health organizations.

Virtual electrophoresis in proteomics can be used to search localization of proteins and their proteoforms (especially those existing in low concentrations), to identify proteoforms found in experiments etc. Although the problem of predicting the isoelectric point is well studied, the need of electrophoretic shift correction is usually ignored. Researchers simply use the brutto molecular weight of the protein. In this study four data sets taken from the literature sources and the SWISS-2DPAGE database have been used to build correction equations for prediction of the electrophoretic shift (123, 72, 118 and 470 points, respectively). Two groups of models were built. The first model was based on the amino acid composition of proteins, the second one, on analysis of parameters calculated by amino acid sequences (theoretical molecular weight, hydrophobicity, charge distribution, ability to form helix structures). The coefficient of determination ranged from 0.35 to 0.75 in each single set, but cross-prediction between samples did not gave satisfactory results. At the same time, the direction of correction was predicted correctly in 74% of cases. After combining of the samples and dividing pooled data into 2 representative sets, the coefficient of determination during in the process of learning ranged from 0.44 to 0.51, and R2 of predictions were not less than 0.39. The direction of correction was predicted correctly in 80% of cases. This prediction models have been integrated into the program pIPredict v.2, freely available at http://www.ibmc.msk.ru/LPCIT/pIPredict.

ОBJECTIVE: The development and use of population models of mental health in the Russian population to analyze the relationship between indicators of mental disorders, psychiatric care resources taking into account medical/demographic and socio-economic factors in the period of 1992-2015., Material and Methods: The sources of information were: 1) the data of the Russian medical statistics on the main indicators of mental health of the Russian population and psychiatric care resources; 2) government statistics on the demographic and socio-economic situation of the population of Russia during this period. The study used system data analysis, correlation and regression analyses., Results and Conclusion: Linear and nonlinear models with a high level of significance were obtained to assess the impact of socio-economic, health and demographic (population, life expectancy, migration, mortality) factors and resources of the service (primarily, manpower) on the dynamics of the main indicators (prevalence, incidence) of mental health of the population. In recent years, a decline in the prevalence and incidence of the Russian population is a consequence of the scarcity of mental health services, in particular, personnel resources.

Thirty three classification models of substrate specificity of 177 drugs to P-glycoprotein have been created using of the linear discriminant analysis, random forest and support vector machine methods. QSAR modeling was carried out using 2 strategies. The first strategy consisted in search of all possible combinations from 1÷5 descriptors on the basis of 7 most significant molecular descriptors with clear physico-chemical interpretation. In the second case forward selection procedure up to 5 descriptors, starting from the best single descriptor was used. This strategy was applied to a set of 387 DRAGON descriptors. It was found that only one of 33 models has necessary statistical parameters. This model was designed by means of the linear discriminant analysis on the basis of a single descriptor of H-bond (ΣC(ad)). The model has good statistical characteristics as evidenced by results to both internal cross-validation, and external validation with application of 44 new chemicals. This confirms an important role of hydrogen bond in the processes connected with penetration of chemical compounds through a blood-brain barrier.

The analysis was applied to microflora of feces and oropharinx and concentration of volatile fatty acids in saliva from patients of consultative diagnostic center of G.N. Gabrichevskii Moscow research institute of epidemiology and microbiology. The computer classification program is developed on the basis of determining degree of microbiological disorders on the basis of received data and using artificial neural networks and discriminant analysis. The analysis established decreasing of probability of false classification in case of increasing of degree of microbiological disorders of microflora of intestine and absence of such a correlation for microbiological and metabolic disorders of microflora of intestine.

Aim: Evaluation and prognosis of epidemiologic process for Lyme borreliosis (Lb) in Vladimir region., Materials and Methods: Report form No. 2 "Data on infectious and parasitic diseases". Territorial differentiation of morbidity was carried out in ArcView 3.1 program. The following climate parameters were used: average monthly air temperature, number of days of the month with precipitation, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, size of snow cover and content of oxygen in air in every month for the period of 2004-2012. Statistical treatment, correlation-regression analysis was carried out in Statistica program., Results: 1211 cases of Lb morbidity were registered for the period of 2005-2012 in Vladimir region, that had increased by 46%. A territorial differentiation of the disease is noted. Average monthly temperature of July and September of the preceding year were established to be the most significant parameters, that affect the epidemiologic process. A mathematical model, that can be used for prognosis of epidemiologic situation for Lb, was constructed., Conclusion: The mathematical model shows, that increased values of morbidity can be expected, if July of the preceding year was fairly warm, and September, on the contrary, differed by reduced values of air temperature.

Correct harmonized statistical re-analysis of the data published in this Journal by I.V.Polyakova et al. (2014) clearly shows that, contrary to the authors' opinion, the distribution of genotypes among residents of besieged Leningrad and the residents of the North-West region of Russia appeared to be statistically indistinguishable in all five genes studied. The main causes of the erroneous conclusions of the authors are neglecting the problem of multiple comparisons and fundamental impossibility of sampling adequate control group. A scheme for harmonized statistical analysis of such data is presented. It implies not only frequentist but Bayesian point and interval estimates for genotype proportions and their differences, for fixation index (coefficient of inbreeding) FIS, for the effect size φ based on χ2 statistic (contingency coefficient) and for the achieved power (1 - β), as well as estimates of posterior probabilities for the null hypothesis P(H_0 |D), Bayes factors 〖BF〗_01, observed p-values, p_obs, with the prediction intervals, and p-values adjusted for the multiplicity of null hypotheses tested (P_S).

Objective: Evaluation of the dynamics of suicides depending on the changes in medical-demographic and socio-economic factors in the Russian population in the period 1992--2012., Material and Methods: The research material was the data of the official medical statistics on the groups of people with mental disorders, as well as the data on the socio-economic situation of the Russian population during this period. To assess the significance of the association between suicide and these factors, correlation and regression analysis was used., Results: The regression model explained 95.9% of the variance in the suicide index by two indicators: 1) life expectancy and 2) morbidity of psychotic disorders for the population of Russia during this period. The interpretation of the integral indicators used in the model, and the dynamics of suicides in the Russian population according to socio-economic changes in the country in 1992--2012 are presented., Conclusion: The model can be used as a tool for operational forecasting and monitoring of suicidal patients by government agencies and medical and social services.

In this work, information relating to charge states of biomolecule ions in solution obtained using the electrospray ionization mass spectrometry of different biopolymers is analyzed. The data analyses have mainly been carried out by solving an inverse problem of calculating the probabilities of retention of protons and other charge carriers by ionogenic groups of biomolecules with known primary structures. The approach is a new one and has no known to us analogues. A program titled "Decomposition" was developed and used to analyze the charge distribution of ions of native and denatured cytochrome c mass spectra. The possibility of splitting of the charge-state distribution of albumin into normal components, which likely corresponds to various conformational states of the biomolecule, has been demonstrated. The applicability criterion for using previously described method of decomposition of multidimensional charge-state distributions with two charge carriers, e.g., a proton and a sodium ion, to characterize the spatial structure of biopolymers in solution has been formulated. In contrast to known mass-spectrometric approaches, this method does not require the use of enzymatic hydrolysis or collision-induced dissociation of the biopolymers.

The present methods for a droopy ears correction do not guarantee the optimal cosmetic effect achievement. Optimal borders of deformity in cutaneo-adiposal flap of the mastoid region while cosmetic otoplasty performance were studied. Basing on analysis of biomechanical investigations, there were determined the optimal corners of stretching and direction of the strength vector in cutaneo-adiposal flaps while otoplasty performance, securing conditions for surgical intervention performance with preservation of a natural topographo-anatomical ratios in the head and neck tissues.

The paper deals with an approach to the description of the age and temporal dynamics of cancer, based on the model describing the dynamics of the age of cancer as a second order phase transition. This approach is widely used for studying physical systems. This model of cancer development as second order phase transitions is in a good agreement with medical statistics. The cancer incidence dynamics is described only with two free parameters, easily verified according to statistics and well interpreted. The applicability of the second order phase transition model for description of a non-physical system defines the universal nature of the processes occurring during phase transitions.

For approximation of some well-known time series of Paramecia caudatun population dynamics (G. F. Gause, The Struggle for Existence, 1934) Verhulst and Gompertz models were used. The parameters were estimated for each of the models in two different ways: with the least squares method (global fitting) and non-traditional approach (a method of extreme points). The results obtained were compared and also with those represented by G. F. Gause. Deviations of theoretical (model) trajectories from experimental time series were tested using various non-parametric statistical tests. It was shown that the least square method-estimations lead to the results which not always meet the requirements imposed for a "fine" model. But in some cases a small modification of the least square method-estimations is possible allowing for satisfactory representations of experimental data set for approximation.

The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

The concept of active medium is used as a biophysical basis for modeling spatial and temporal self-organization in anthropogenic ecosystems that results in formation of regular dynamic structures with stable or unstable modes of development. Urban ecosystem is represented as a hierarchy of interacting active media, and their non-linearity is the result of extreme anthropogenic load and mismatch between characteristic times and scales in evolution of the natural and anthropogenic components together with the complex set of positive and negative feedbacks between the subsystems. Description of the presented model is deliberately simplified so as to use a modified Fitz-Hugh-Nagumo equation. The approach developed here is quite general and allows for systematic description of urban ecosystems as distributed dissipative systems.

A three-wave epidemic cycle caused by a new serotype agent is simulated. The mechanism of stepwise recession in a stratum of the susceptible persons is examined. A group of asymptomatic infected individuals as well as an antigen activity index, which regulates the intensity of input streams into the groups of infected patients, are introduced into the model. Morbidity rate is additionally regulated by the virulence. The model is identified according to the observations of the three-wave passage of Hong-Kong serotype (H3N2). On the basis of the simulation results it is shown that a leading role in upgrading the virulence capacity of the agent and in replenishment of the morbid group is assigned to the asymptomatic infected individuals.

Higher plants show a wide range of leaf lifespan (LL) variability. LL is calculated as a sum of functional LL(f) (corresponding to the time of active photosynthesis and CO2 accumulation in the leaf) and nonfunctional LL(n) (the time of photosynthetic activity absence). For evergreen species of boreal zones, LL(n) corresponds to the period of winter rest. Photosynthetic potential of leaf (PPL), interpreted as the maximum possible amount of CO2 that can be fixed during its life, can be estimated on the basis of maximum photosynthesis rate (P(a)) dynamics during LL(f); the maximum (P(a max)) being achieved in mature leaf. Photosynthetic potential depends on LL(f) more strongly than on P(a max). The PPL/LL(f) ratio is indicative of the rate of PPL realization over leaf lifespan. As LL(f) shows strong positive correlation with LL, the latter parameter can also characterize the rate of PPL realization. Long LL(f) in evergreen species provides higher PPL, which is advantageous by comparison with deciduous ones. In evergreen species, the PPL itself is realized slower than in deciduous ones. The increase in LL(f) and LL is accompanied by the increase in leaf constructional cost (LCC(a)) as well as the decrease in photosynthesis rate. At that, photosynthesis rate per unit of dry weight (P(m)) decreases much faster than that per unit of leaf area (P(a)). Apparently, when considering dry leaf weight, the apoplast share seems to be much higher in long-living leaves of evergreen species than in short-living leaves of deciduous species. The leaf payback (LP) may be stabilized by unidirectional shifts in PPL and LCC(a). Species with short/long LL(f) and high/low PPL realization rate are typical for early/late succession stages and for habitats with the environmental conditions favorable/adverse for photosynthesis and growth. If the conditions for photosynthesis and growth are favorable, high PPL realization rate provides advantage in competition. The PPL realization rate is coupled with the rate of leaf senescence.

A mathematical model of tumor growth is developed taking into account angiogenesis. Malignant cells under metabolic stress produce vascular endothelium growth factor that stimulates angiogenesis, increasing nutrient influx in tumor. The model takes into account the migration and proliferation dichotomy in the malignant cells depending on nutrient concentration. Convective fluxes originated due to active tumor cell proliferation in compact dense tissue are also considered. The computational analysis of the model has demonstrated that diffusive tumor growth rate does not depend on angiogenesis while for non-invasive tumors angiogenesis can significantly alter tumor growth, although it is not able to stop it completely. The causes and significance of the result for estimation of the antitumor efficacy of antiangiogenic therapy are discussed.

The authors justify pharmaco-economic evaluation of vibration disease inpatient treatment in miners, as miners' health improvement necessitates effective use of available means and implementation of economic management methods. Qualitative medical and pharmaceutic care in miners with vibration disease requires considerable financial, material and manpower resources of medical organization.

Based on the forest woody species wilt areassurvey in Nizhniy Novgorod region in August 2014, the possible factors of the pest spread risk modelling were analysed on six species of the genus Bursaphelenchus and Devibursaphelenchus teratospicularis using six parameters: plant host species, beetle vector species, average temperatures in July and January, annual precipitation. It was concluded that these parameters in the evaluated wilt spots correspond to climatic and biological data of the already published woody plants wilt records in Europe and Asia caused by the same nematode pest species. It was speculated that the annual precipitation of 600 mm and average July temperature of 25 degrees C or higher, are the critical combination that may be used to develop the predicative risk modelling in the forests' and parks' wilt monitoring.

The objective of the present study was to analyse the financial support of forensic medical research with the application of mathematical methods based at the Nizhni Novgorod Regional Bureau of Forensic Medical Expertise. The authors elaborated the prognosis of the expenses for the forensic medical expertise of the corpses of the elderly and senile subjects.

EEG rhythmical picture of subject's movement suppression and spatial-figurative task solving was examined and analyzed. Rhythms appearing during spatial reasoning and suppressed movements with the frequency of about 11 Hz were isolated. It was hypothesized that a functional link exists between these rhythms in the considered behavioral tests. To test the hypothesis and to reveal this connection, experiments were developed and carried out. Then the analysis of recorded EEG signals was conducted by applying Fourier transform, independent component analysis (ICA) and equivalent dipole source localization. Unexpected conclusion about the existence of a general mechanism of movement suppression was drawn.

Overactive bladder syndrome (OAB), accompanied by incontinence, is a relatively common disease. Currently, in the Russian Federation, unfortunately, management of patients with OAB includes the recommendations for symptomatic use of incontinence pads without pharmacotherapy. Along with this, the market is represented by a number of drugs that can reduce the occurrence of adverse symptoms associated with OAB syndrome. This study presents the pharmacoeconomic analysis of use of solifenacin for the treatment of patients with the OAB syndrome in Russia. Based on previous clinical studies, formal mathematical model for the development of OAB have been suggested, taking into account the concomitant symptoms (urinary incontinence), and complications (urinary tract infections, skin infections, depression and fractures). The model considers the direct medical and non-medical costs, as well as indirect social costs, arising from the traditional management of patients with OAB syndrome (no medication) and the use of solifenacin. As a result, it was found that the use of solifenacin is economically feasible option for the management of patients with OAB within 1 year, the difference in costs between these strategies per patient is 2,385 rubles. The use of solifenacin ceases to be a resource-saving if the cost of incontinence pads will reduced by more than half of the basic price included in the calculations, or if the effectiveness of solifenacin would be 15% lower than the value used in the basic model.

The critical analysis of existing models of the relationship dose-effect (RDE) for radon exposure on human health has been performed. Conclusion about the necessity and possibility of improving these models has been made. A new improved version ofthe RDE has been developed. A technique for assessing the human health risk of exposure to radon, including the method for estimating of exposure doses of radon, an improved model of RDE, proper methodology risk assessment has been described. Methodology is proposed for the use in the territory of Russia.

As the basis for entomological monitoring, the authors first propose to investigate the structure of a season of D. repens invasion transmission in the carrier in relation to the ambient temperature, such as onset of a transmission season, terminaton of mosquito infection, the number of invasion circulations. A calculating procedure has been developed. It is shown that there is a need for entomological monitoring of each specific area irrespective of the latitude to study a risk for local dirofilariasis cases.

The study of the probability of population death calculated for men and women from Guatemala, Portugal and Sweden revealed three components: death rate for natural biological reasons (geometric progression coefficient is about 1,1); death rate for social and economic reasons; periodic death rate (12 year period).

This article presents the results of a special method designed for the early identification of children's and adolescents' propensity for abnormal weight gain. The basis of this technique is the principle of monitoring the actual values of body mass index for each child or young person at the age of dynamic changes in the index of the normal range. The weekly body weight of each child or adolescent who participates in the study is measured and the results are included in a special registry. Measurement of the body weight of the children and adolescents occurs in the morning at the same hour on an empty stomach after use of the toilet and performance of necessary hygiene. Afterwards, the obtained values of their body mass indices are compared with those considered normal for age, according to official data. In cases when the resulting body mass index of a child or young person exceeds the range of normal-for-age values, an in-depth medical examination of the child or adolescent is conducted together with the nature of their food intake and mode of physical activity, which may then be corrected.

In this paper there are described the variants of the models of the regression analysis (linear exponential, exponential and hyperbolic) for the detection of relationships between the lung cancer rate in the male population and anthropogenic emissions in the Kemerovo region. After analyzing of the each model there was chosen the one seemed to be the most adequate to describe the dependence of cancer incidence from pollutant emissions into the atmosphere. At a later stage this model has served for the calculation of the medium-term forecasting of lung cancer rate in males in the dependence on the actual number of man-made emissions in previous years.

A problem of "prozone" formation in agglutination of corpuscular antibodies by bivalent antibodies was considered. Using a new coordinate system, which was proposed by us earlier, we analyzed theoretical and experimental curves that describe relations between bivalent antibody concentration and some blocking factors. It was shown that occupation of antibody paratopes by a blocking factor or by antiidiotypic antibodies can induce "prozone" formation. It was also demonstrated that experimental titration curves for a mixture of antibodies and corresponding antigens coincide with theoretical curves that were calculated according to our theory. Our data also demonstrate that major part of serum antibodies are blocked by antiidiotypic antibodies when maximum of antibody formation is over and antibody titers come down.

The unique climatic and geographical location of the Altai Krai determines the specific radiation dose load for the population, which is composed of the complex of radiological indices, the structure of which is largely dependent on the type of locality and, to a greater extent due to the action of radon, which is currently the main source of internal radiation of the population of upland districts and adjacent territories. There was performed a hygienic assessment of the radiation risk and the expected decline in life expectancy and population health due to radon exposure in the model areas of the Altai Krai. To calculate the additional risk there were used some models for radiation risk extrapolation: a risk constant model, model GSF (Jacobi's model), Lubin model (TSE/AGE/WL) and BEIR VI model for smoking and nonsmoking population, as well as the combined model. The lowest values of the radiation risk and the expected decline in life expectancy are typical for Charyshsko-Ust-Kalmanskaya zone, the maximum--for Kuryinsko--Pospelikhinskaya zone.

Basing on data, concerning the injured persons state, the investigations results for elaboration and application of statistic models, prognosticating the trauma outcome, were analyzed. Selected information about 373 injured persons, who were treated in Traumatic Shock Department, is presented. There was established, that the statistical models elaborated is expedient to use together with other qualitative and quantitative methods of prognostic determination of outcome in severely injured persons.

Linear increase in the best-practice (maximal among countries) life expectancy, known as the Oeppen-Vaupel line, is the most demonstrative image of longevity progress. This study is devoted to the analysis of trends in best-practice life expectancy across cohorts born in 1870 to 1950. Other than the conventional period life expectancy, cohort life expectancy measures the lifetime of real individuals from the population under consideration. Since mortality is mostly decreasing with time, period life expectancy in a given year is usually lower than cohort life expectancy for people born in the same year. The corresponding gap between period and cohort life expectancies increases with time. Our analysis is based on data for 24 developed countries from the Human Mortality Database for the period 1870 to 2008. To estimate life expectancy for non-extinct cohorts, we apply the Lee-Carter model to extrapolate mortality rates until the year 2050. The annual increase in the best-practice cohort life expectancy across cohorts born in 1870 to 1950 is 0,43 year, while the annual increment in the period life expectancy across the same range of years is equal to 0,28 year. The best-practice cohort life expectancy has increased from 53,7 years in 1870 to 83,8 years in 1950. During this time the gap between period and cohort life expectancies has increased from 1,2 to 10,3 years. Cohorts born in 1920 to 1950 will live longer than one can expect by looking at respective period mortality patterns. For these cohorts, the longest part of their additionally gained lifetime will be spent at ages 65 and older. This substantially changes the distribution of human lifetime among different stages of the life cycle.

As a description of altitude-belt zonality of wood vegetation, a model of ecological second-order transitions is proposed. Objects of the study have been chosen to be forest cenoses of the northern slope of Kulumyss Ridge (the Sayan Mauntains), while the results are comprised by the altitude profiles of wood vegetation. An ecological phase transition can be considered as the transition of cenoses at different altitudes from the state of presence of certain tree species within the studied territory to the state of their absence. By analogy with the physical model of second-order, phase transitions the order parameter is introduced (i.e., the area portion occupied by a single tree species at the certain altitude) as well as the control variable (i.e., the altitude of the wood vegetation belt). As the formal relation between them, an analog of the Landau's equation for phase transitions in physical systems is obtained. It is shown that the model is in a good accordance with the empirical data. Thus, the model can be used for estimation of upper and lower boundaries of altitude belts for individual tree species (like birch, aspen, Siberian fir, Siberian pine) as well as the breadth of their ecological niches with regard to altitude. The model includes also the parameters that describe numerically the interactions between different species of wood vegetation. The approach versatility allows to simplify description and modeling of wood vegetation altitude zonality, and enables assessment of vegetation cenoses response to climatic changes.

The article represents methodic approaches that enable quantitative evaluation of worker's health risk, forecast of changes in health state. Models application proved that integral risk of health disorders in workers exposed to occupational factors becomes unacceptable by the age of 45 years, without exposure to the factors - by 54 years. At work under existing levels of exposure to occupational factors, cardiovascular risk increases with length of service, and by 5 years of service, number of additional occupational cases in a studied group of workers approaches 11 per year. Solving effectively problems of health risk evaluation, evolution models consider specific conditions of workplaces contamination and describe influence of variable factors within work conditions on risk of various health disorders in dependence on length of service and exposure duration. Methodic approaches to health risk evaluation, based on evolution models of hazardous effects development under exposure to working environment factors, enable to follow dynamics of these effects development on background of natural ageing and to forecast health state of human and population under multi-factorial, multi-exposure load.

To ensure radiation safety of cosmonauts, it is necessary not only to predict, but also to reconstruct absorbed dose dynamics with the knowledge of how long cosmonauts stay in specific space vehicle compartments with different shielding properties and lacking equipment for dosimetric monitoring. In this situation, calculating is one and only way to make a correct estimate of radiation exposure of cosmonaut's organism as a whole (tissue-average dose) and of separate systems and organs. The paper addresses the issues of mathematical simulation of epy radiation environment of standard dosimetric instruments in the Russian segments of the International Space Station (ISS RS). Results of comparing the simulation and experimental data for the complement of dosimeters including ionization chamber-based radiometer R-16, DB8 dosimeters composed of semiconductor detectors, and Pille dosimeters composed of thermoluminescent detectors evidence that the current methods of simulation in support of the ISS RS radiation monitoring provide a sufficiently good agreement between the calculated and experimental data.

The extinction of large northern herbivores is a puzzle for many biologists. It is long debated whether climate change or human activity was the main factor of the extinction. The survival of the weak trophic competitors should reject the climatic hypothesis. Extant species of Pleistocene communities allow testing this explicitly. Up to date, reindeer and musk ox coexist in the Arctic territory. Their island populations provide a unique natural experiment to assess the role of competition. On Wrangel Island, their population sizes show the opposite trends and the same situation recurs on other Arctic islands--the reindeer population size decreases with the muskoxen population increasing. We have shown that the trends are defined by food-web structure. Niche overlap between species is found to .be considerable and cannot be facilitated by habitat partitioning. The number of plant species in the muskoxen diet was higher than in the reindeer. The exclusive part of the muskoxen diet was higher as well. Food webs in all of the habitat types showed the same relation. However, the changes in herbivores distribution during the Pleistocene demonstrate the opposite pattern. Therefore, the competitive advantage could not save the Palaearctic musk ox, and the extinction seems to be a result of selective overkill. Conclusively, the human activity may be considered as the main factor of the Late Pleistocene herbivore extinctions, and the musk ox reintroducing should be coupled with extensive conservational measures.

Analysis of 202 medical histories of the Northern fleet naval pilots suggested the necessity to introduce the criteria of comorbidity number and formulation. It has been found that psychosomatic diseases (up to 60% of the cases) with the pathogenesis engendered by stress factor remain the leading cause for medical disqualification of Northern fleet naval pilots. The authors recommend changing over the nosologic diagnostics to physiological to optimize the aeromedical certification process. Probabilistic modeling of chronic pathology pathogenesis may be viewed as a foundation stone for programming as part of the pilots' anti-risk rehabilitation technology.

Background: Atrial fibrillation is associated with development of thromboembolic events. New oral anticoagulants (apixaban, rivaroxaban and dabigatran) are recommended for antithrombotic therapy in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) with moderate and high risk of stroke., Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness ratio of apixaban compared to dabigatran and rivaroxaban in patients with NVAF from the Russian Federation national health care system perspective., Methods: This analysis used a Markov model that allowed estimation of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for apixaban compared to rivaroxaban and dabigatran 110 mg and 150 mg over lifetime horizon for patients with NVAF. The model enclosed cardiovascular event rates based on the results of the indirect treatment comparison that combined data from the randomized clinical trials comparing clinical effectiveness and safety of apixaban, rivaroxaban and dabigatran with warfarin (ARISTOTLE, ROCKET-AF, RE-LY). The following cardiovascular events were considered: ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, systemic embolism, intracranial hemorrhage, other major bleeds, clinically relevant non-major bleeds and myocardial infarction. Direct medical costs were determined based on the rates of the compulsory national medical insurance system. The price of the new oral anticoagulants was taken as a weighted average tender price for the year 2013. In the model both costs and benefits (quality-adjusted life years and life-years) were discounted at 3.5%. Cost-effectiveness threshold was set at 1.4 million rubles per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and corresponded to the three times GDP per capita in 2013 in the Russian Federation., Results: In the base case analysis it was demonstrated that apixaban compared to dabigatran 110 mg and 150 mg and rivaroxaban provided additional 0.101, 0.060 and 0.072 life years as well as additional 0.063; 0.038 and 0.041 QALYs respectively. Over lifetime horizon apixaban compared to dabigatran 110 mg and 150 mg and rivaroxaban required additional treatment costs equal to 22.78; 31.18 and 6.70 thousands rubles, respectively. With that estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for apixaban compared to dabigatran 110 mg and 150 mg and rivaroxaban was 362.60, 805.54 and 162.45 thousands rubles per QALY correspondingly., Conclusion: Apixaban provided increased life expectancy compared to other new anticoagulants and may be considered as a cost-effective alternative to dabigatran 110 mg and 150 mg and rivaroxaban from the Russian Federation national health care system perspective.

"Peptic ulcers" is the most frequent side effect of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Experimental data indicate that pathogenesis of peptic ulcers cannot be explained only by the inhibition of cyclooxygenases. The knowledge about other molecular mechanisms of action of drugs related with development of peptic ulcers could be useful for design of new safe NSAIDs. However, considerable time and material resources are needed for corresponding experimental research. For simplification of experimental search, we have developed an approach for in silico identification of probable molecular mechanisms of action of drugs related with its side effects. We have created the set of NSAIDs containing 85 substances with data about structures and side effects. The computer program PASS (Prediction of Activity Spectra for Substances) predicting more than 3000 molecular mechanisms of action based on structural formula of substances was used to estimate unknown molecular mechanisms of action for these set of NSAIDs. Statistically significant relationships between predicted molecular mechanisms of action and development of peptic ulcers have been established. We have discovered twenty-six molecular mechanisms of action (two known previously and twenty-four new) which probably related with development of peptic ulcers. By analyzing of Gene Ontology data, signal and metabolic pathways, publications in Medline, we formulated hypotheses about the role of ten molecular mechanisms of action in pathogenesis of peptic ulcer.

The paper discusses the approaches and methods to obtain comparable estimates of cancer incidence and mortality in the regions of the country based on adjustments of official data as well as on the average age of the population of each region. There are offered procedures of such adjustment per the linear dependence of cancer incidence and mortality on middle-aged population. There are provided modifications of the linear models on 20 malignant tumor sites, reflecting these dependences, on the basis of information from regions of the Russian Federation for 2007-2011. An example of the calculation of the average age-adjusted cancer incidence rate of female population of the Belgorod region is considered. By using the proposed methods there were received the comparative assessments of cancer incidence and mortality in men and women in eighty-three regions of the Russian Federation. Based on these indicators there are defined the rates of variation of the levels of these phenomena on the majority of considered regions and also determined the most advantaged and disadvantaged regions of the country in accordance with these indicators.

Aim: To elucidate whether and how tacrolimus affects the cumulative survival of patients after living related kidney donor transplantation., Subjects and Methods: The clinical materials of 246 related kidney transplant recipients, including 108 patients in whom tacrolimus (Prograf and Advagraf) Astellas Pharma US, Inc) was included in the immunodepression protocol (Group 1) and 138 patients who did not receive the agent (Group 2), were analyzed. Comparative analysis used the following tests: the Kaplan Meier test estimating the cumulative survival of recipients and transplants; the Cox test assessing the cumulative risk; and the log-rank test. Allorenal graft losses and mortality rates were also calculated., Results: Mathematical analysis of the above indicators demonstrated that the allograft and survival rates were far higher (p < 0.05) and the cumulative risk was much less in Group 1 (p < 0.02). Graft losses and the recipients' deaths were higher in Group 2., Conclusion: The analysis suggests that the incorporation of tacrolimus into the immunodepression therapy protocol positively impacts the results of lung related kidney donor transplantation.

Aim: To make a comparative analysis of the data available in the accounting medical documents drawn up at a multidisciplinary hospital on the level and structure of alcohol-related mortality (ARM) and to evaluate the efficiency of its accounting., Materials and Methods: Accounting medical documents, such as 453 inpatient cards (Form 003/y), 453 postmortem protocols (cards) (Form 013/H-80), and 453 death certificates (Form 106/y-08), were chosen as the basis for the study. The data of the final clinical and postmortem diagnoses in the patients who had died at hospital and their primary cause of death were comparatively analyzed., Results: According to Form 003/y, ARM was 5.5%; the detection rate of alcohol-related disease (ARD) was 11% (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.3 to 14.3%); according to Form 013/H-80, ARM was 7.1% (95% CI, 4.9 to 9.8%) and the detection rate of ARD was 12.6% (95% CI, 9.7 to 16%). The consistency of the diagnoses of ARD as a main cause of death, made by hospital unit physicians and pathologists, is estimated as the mean--the Cohen's kappa coefficient (kappa) is 0.570) (p < 0.001)., Conclusion: The results of the investigation suggest that there are 3 types of ARM, which differ in its level and structure: ARM in the assessments of hospital unit physicians; that in the assessments of pathologists, and that according to the death certificates drawn up. The consistency index for the diagnosis of ARD as a main cause of death indicates that the hospital unit physicians only determine the etiology of alcohol-related cause of death, without identifying it specifically.

Aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of renal denervation (RD) in resistant arterial hypertension (AH) in Russia. Modeling of Markov conducted economic impact of RD on the Russian population of patients with resistant hypertension in combination with optimal medical therapy (OMT) compared with OMT using a model developed by American researchers based on the results of international research. The model contains data on Russian mortality, and costs of major complications of hypertension. The simulation results showed a significant reduction in relative risk reduction of adverse outcomes in patients with resistant hypertension for 10 years (risk of stroke is reduced by 30%, myocardial infarction - 32%). RD saves 0.9 years of quality-adjusted life (QALY) by an average of 1 patient with resistant hypertension. Costs for 1 year stored in the application of quality of life amounted to RD 203 791.6 rubles. Which is below the 1 gross domestic product and therefore indicates the feasibility of this method in Russia.

The article presents the results of study of character of consumption of alcohol products by representatives of different professional groups. The research data was obtained from representative sampling of working population of Russia. On the basis of probit-modeling estimates of possibility of even if once consumption of alcohol were calculated. On the basis of tobit-modeling relative volume of consumed alcohol was evaluated. The results of analysis indicate that professional membership exerts significant but not determining influence on the character of alcohol consumption. The clear-cut age structure of volume consumption of particular alcohol beverages was established. The stable decrease of consumption of alcohol beverages during last years is mainly determined by financial economic crisis and not by measures of antialcoholic campaign.

Multivariate analysis of clinical factors was conducted on the material histories of 195 patients treated between 2004 and 2006. In Donetsk regional antitumor center, which for rectal cancer (RC) is made abdomino-anal resection of the rectum with the delayed formation koloanal anastomosis after bringing down the colon to the perineum. In 97 patients the operation was performed with the use of electric welding soft tissue (EWST), in 98--a standard way. Studied the quality of life of patients using a questionnaire QLQ C30-CR38 and the function of the anal incontinence (Wexner scale). It is established, that the greatest influence on the function of the anal continence have a view of a combined and complex treatment, radicality intervention, the method of forming koloanal of anastomosis. Application EWST the second stage of surgery to cut off excess relegated intestine helped reduce the risk of poor function of the anal continence.

Density compensation effect (DCE) is qualified as increase of some species abundance after dropping of other species out of a community, as a consequence of unutilized resources appearance and interspecies competition abatement. DCE was first noticed about 50 years ago but till now the questions on causes of its origin, its scale and intensity remain open due to the lack of field data as well as methodological problems. In the article, these questions have been tested using arboreous tier of the West Caucasus forest phytocenoses as a case study. An analysis of actual data is conducted by means of numerical experiments. Three scenarios have been modeled: in the first one there has been assumed no manifestations of compensatory processes; in the second, after dropping some species out of community, all the other species rose in abundance; in the third, DCE was manifested through abundance increase of dominant species only. Model predictions on the analyzed parameters relationships have been checked against actual measurements. The results obtained suggest that for the DCE to occur, the absolute number of species in a community is not so much important as the ratio between their specific capacities, which is determined by environmental conditions, and the actual number of species, which may not match the capacity due to interference of regional processes (e.g., the history of cenoses formation, isolation, etc.). Thus, DCE does not appear to be an invariable consequence of environmental extremity and may occur in cenoses consisted of both many and few species.

There are relatively few data reported on specific features of drug pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics in pregnancy compared to the non-pregnant state. Changes in maternal physiology and metabolic processes during pregnancy effect on PK and show that standard adult dosing is likely to be incorrect during pregnancy. Physiology-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model could be used to evaluate different dosing regimens for pregnant women and to correctly predict drug exposure and response on the personal level.

To improve miners' health nowadays, effective application of available means and implication of economic management methods are necessary, as quality medical and pharmaceutic care for miners requires significant financial, material and working efforts both from the government and from every institution operating in health care.

Pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) is a nosological entity that complicates the course of many diseases. This circumstance determines difficulties in the diagnosis and determination of further patient management tactics. Bolus-enhanced computed tomography of pulmonary arteries, a method having high resolution and high accuracy, is presently accepted to be the gold standard to verify the diagnosis. At the same time this radiocontrast study cannot be used as a screening tool by economic and other reasoning, which determines the importance of the clinical diagnosis of the disease. This review considers different approaches to diagnosing PTE and a base of elaborated clinical algorithms and comparatively assesses empirical and scoring systems for the diagnosis and prediction of a disease course characterized by the rapidness and unpredictability of an outcome even in correctly made diagnosis.

Verhulst's logistic differential equation, popular in mathematical ecology, is used in modeling of population growth, neural networks, statistics, reaction models, Fermi distribution, modeling of tumor growth, etc. We used this function to characterize growth of commensal Escherichia coli isolates from gut microflora in Crohn's disease patients. The results of our investigations show differences in growth parameters of commensal E. coli, isolated from the gut microflora in Crohn's disease patients and healthy volunteers; it is most likely explained by the influence of chronic inflammatory processes on growth and reproduction of these bacteria. It has been established that the used mathematical model well characterizes growth of patients' gut E. coli isolates, and it can be important for the expedient probiotics' application during the disease.