Search

Forecasting and modelling of price dynamics of financial instruments and their volatility is an essential element of technical analysis of financial markets. The real sector is also interested in changes in volatility as it seeks to maintain stability in financial and commodity markets. The article aims to develop methodological approaches to modelling the dynamics and volatility of the Ukrainian corporate credit market using asymmetric GARCH approaches. It has been established that the risky nature of financial markets is a prerequisite for analyzing and modeling the volatility of their dynamics in order to correctly respond to possible spikes in volatility, as well as to predict their duration. The analysis was based on daily data on interest rates on the corporate credit market. A graph of the initial time series, autocorrelation functions was plotted, the series was checked for stationarity by the Dickey–Fuller test, which led to its differentiation and subsequent formation of the optimal ARIMA specification. When checking the residuals for autocorrelation and the ARCH effect, positive results were obtained, which led to the use of the GARCH model. Going through various GARCH specifications made it possible to choose GJR-GARCH for modeling, which takes into account the asymmetry of the impact of information shocks on the profitability management of active bank operations. The resulting model was tested by the Leung–Box test, the ARCH LM test, and the Pearson test for the optimality of the specification. The model was compared with actual time series data. All the results confirmed the correctness of the built models, which allows them to be used for analysis and forecasting for further periods.

Based on earlier research, two primary categories of characteristics influence bank profitability. First, each bank has a unique set of profitability drivers that are often the direct outcome of management choices (quality, size, capitalization, efficiency, asset structure, and revenue divergence). The second group of determinants consists of elements like industry concentration, economic growth, inflation, and interest rates related to the profitability of the industry formation and the macroeconomic environment in which the banking system conducts. Capital adequacy may be defined as the ratio of the institution’s main capital to its assets, including loans and investments, to gauge a financial institution’s stability and strength. This paper examines the correlation between capital adequacy and banks’ profitability through the moderating impact of macroeconomic variables like inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates in the banking sectors of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Turkey. To this end, panel data were gathered from the OIC statistics database concerning 2010 and 2021. The study’s regression analysis exposed that although inflation has a significant negative influence on banks’ profitability, while the capital adequacy ratio, exchange rate, and interest rate have positive and significant impacts. Regarding the moderating effect, both inflation and interest rates have a significant positive and negative impact on the relationship between banks’ profitability and capital adequacy, respectively. Additionally, macroeconomic variable interactions with capital adequacy are not statistically significant.

This paper is devoted to the issues of determining the upper and lower limits of an economically reasonable interest rate on debt obligations. The purpose of the study is to determine the boundaries of an economically reasonable interest rate on debt obligations, taking into account the main conditions of the loan relations: security, urgency, frequency of payments, availability (absence) measures of state support, etc. In the course of the study, such methods as content analysis of sources, regulatory regulation, and market analysis were used. The study is based on the analysis of the norms of the relationship between economic entities, taking into account the conditions for implementation of state support in socially significant areas of economic relations. In order to study the pay ability of debt obligations, the author analyzed the rules of tax legislation. It examined legal acts which revealed the facts of the use of terms of relationships other than those applied in the open market. Identified reasons for the existence of conditions of credit and borrowing relations, other than economically reasonable: interaction of affiliates, bonded terms of the transaction. The author discloses the concept of an “economically reasonable interest rate on debt obligations”, which arose as a result of the inadmissibility (taking into account the rules of regulatory legal acts and established judicial practice) of the use of the term “market value” in relation to loan relations. The results demonstrated that the values of interest rates on debt obligations have an economically reasonable linkage (through the specified multiples of the key rate values). From the point of view of the interest rate on loan obligations, debt obligations are divided into corresponding magnified groups (debt obligations between affiliates; preferential debt liabilities; debts taking into account the degree of risk of the borrower and the security of borrowing resources). The author makes a conclusion about the revealed fundamental patterns in relation to economically reasonable interest rates on debt obligations, taking into account contractual terms between economic entities.

The questions on long-term planning of an enterprise’ bonded loan interest rate payments have been studied. The methods have been considered and the classification of methods for planning the bonds interest rate proposed. Several groups of such planning methods have been singled out. The analysis of application of bond interest rate planning methods applied by enterprises of different national industries has been made. The analysis has been carried out in the spheres of mechanical engineering, generation, transmission and sales of electric power, ferrous metals production, transportation and logistics, foodstuffs production, and information transmission provision. Corporate bond issues issued between 2015 and 2020 have been analyzed. As a result, the three methods most frequently used by enterprises in planning bond interest rates have been identified: methods of considering the macroeconomic risk of an organization; methods of considering the combination of macroeconomic and individual risk of an organization; methods based on market analysis. The study of the mentioned methods allowed us to propose a method of planning the bond interest rate, which calculates the weighted average of the forecast bond interest rate. To assess the quality of the proposed method, it has been tested. The article concludes that it can be used at enterprises planning to issue their own bonded loans.

The research relevance is predefined by the need to explain the nature of inflation and assess the effectiveness of anti-inflationary policy in Poland. The research aims to study the factors that cause price growth and the tools to reduce its pace during the global economic crisis. The following research methods were used: analysis of statistical data on inflation dynamics; comparison – for comparing price growth indices; expert estimates – for forecasting inflation; graphical – for displaying results; and generalisation – for summarising information on the use of inflation reduction tools. The main results obtained in this study are: determination of the dynamics of producer price indices, consumer prices and the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator in Poland; comparison of Poland’s inflation rate with other European countries and justification of the reasons for its rapid growth; analysis of the use of inflation targeting in Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Hungary; and assessment of the effectiveness of the central bank’s increase in the key interest rate and required reserve ratios, as well as the impact of these instruments on the inflation rate in Poland; proving the non-monetary nature of inflation and identifying its main drivers in the period 2020-2023 (coronavirus pandemic, rising global energy and food prices, war in Ukraine); identifying the effects of lowering value-added tax (VAT) rates on certain goods on inflation and tax revenues to the Polish budget; comparing the forecast inflation rate and GDP growth by the end of 2023 and 2024-2025 based on expert estimates; substantiating the ways to slow down inflation, considering a wide range of external factors affecting the Polish economy. The results and conclusions are of practical importance for the Government of the country and managers of the banking sector in developing measures to regulate the rate of price growth.

The aim of the article is to study the features of the use of anti-crisis monetary instruments to support liquidity at the macro level and ensure financial stability in Ukraine in the context of the ongoing full-scale military invasion of the russian federation. The NBU is facing new challenges and tasks related to maintaining the functional capacity of banks, prudent actions aimed at supporting liquidity and financial stability of the banking system. It has already been proved that both a shortage and a surplus of liquidity can be the starting point of a shock explosion in the economy. A comparative-dynamic analysis of the main monetary indicators of the money sphere has been carried out, which has shown their dynamism, controllability, and relative stability. It is noted that in the context of the «unattainable triad», or the Mundell-Fleming trilemma, an independent monetary policy was introduced with respect to the currency, but under the influence of non-monetary factors influencing the monetary sphere, there is a twisting of the spiral of liquidity and the formation of its surplus. Transactions with government bonds and certificates of deposit, which, unlike government bonds, are not a socially useful transaction, do not always achieve the goals of ensuring financial stability and liquidity management under martial law. Monetary transmission in the government securities market does not have a positive effect due to the mandatory military spending of the government of Ukraine. For banks, these operations are a source of profitable liquidity. Due to the non-working transmission mechanism, the inconsistency of the actions of the government and the central bank, in particular, the dynamics of the interest rate does not have a stabilizing effect on the economy.

This research paper aims to investigate the monetary transmission in India through bank lending channel, to know whether a change in monetary policy affects bank loans or not. A balanced panel data of 50 commercial banks covering a timeframe of 11 years from 2009 to 2020 has been undertaken for the research methodology. The outcomes of the dynamic panel have been considered by using the Generalized Method of Moment developed by Arellano Bond Blundell and Bover estimator. The result indicates that channel of bank lending has improved banks’ resilience to monetary shocks. This paper finds the significance of bank characteristics like size, liquidity, and capital which have a substantial impact on bank lending. This research study concludes that repo rate, cash reserve ratio and weighted average call rate are imperative instrument of monetary policy transmission. Banks with small size, capital, and liquidity are more sensitive to any variation in monetary policy as compared to large banks.

The article analyzes work of the Bank of Russia and puts forward suggestions for new monetary-credit tools, which can ensure progressive development of country economy in conditions of rejecting one-polar system of international relations. Policy of the Bank of Russia is characterized by consistent use of such tools as ‘sterilization’ of money stock, its ‘pressing’ by key interest rate, gold selling. These methods implementing basic principles of market fundamentalism in the monetary variant hinder the development of national economy. To replace them the authors propose to fix in the legislative way a direct responsibility of the Ministry of Finance of Russia and the Bank of Russia for attaining planned macro-economic figures and to introduce their coordinated work in line with the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia that can be headed by Deputy Prime Minister. According to the authors it is advisable to pass to policy of real post-capitalism and interest-free economy, as elimination of credit repayment can become a serious incentive factor of intensification for entrepreneurial and working activity. In the monetary sphere it is recommended to introduce the digital ruble in two forms that could delimit deals: with industrial and consumer goods. As a result Russia could show an example of successful solution of the problem acute for many countries, i.e. development of a new system of monetary and credit relations, which on the basis of proposed tools can guarantee a real growth in production and people well-being.

The main aim of this research study is to inspect the relationship between interest rate (monetary policy) and bank profitability, along with some bank specific, industry specific, and macroeconomic variables. The research methodology includes balanced panel data comprising 50 Indian scheduled commercial banks for 12 years from 2008 to 2020. Fixed effect and random effect model regression have been used to know the required relationship. Due to the presence of heteroskedasticity, the results for robust standard error have been presented. The result shows a positive association between the interest rate spread and two banks’ profitability indicator return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) while interest rate has an insignificant negative relationship on bank profitability. The study concludes that the central bank can increase or decrease the interest spread to maintain the surplus or deficit liquidity problem in the economy. Banks are advised to make the appropriate change in lending rate or deposit rate with respect to policy rate to make transmission channel efficient. Also, identify some other factors that affect the bank’s profitability. It will help the bank manager to improve the bank’s profitability.

The research aims to examine the unexpected changes in stock prices due to external shocks given to the macroeconomic variables to forecast future stock market returns. The study applies two econometric models such as «Variance Decomposition» (VDC) and «Impulse Response Function» (IRF) for examining the exogenous shocks in macroeconomic variables respond to changes in stock prices. Monthly time series data of five significant macroeconomic variables Real Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Crude Oil Prices, and Trade Openness, taken as independent variables and BSE SENSEX as a dependent variable. The research period is from Jan 2009 to Dec 2019. The study has taken the responsibility to reveal a few strong evidences for changes in stock prices due to exogenous shocks in Exchange Rate, Trade Openness, Inflation, and Interest rate along with crude oil prices. According to the results, changes in the stock market are due to external factors like changes in dividend policy or capital loss, and some changes in the stock market are due to its own innovative shocks. This study suggests to reduce unexpected changes in stock prices frequently, companies should control capital loss and focus on stable return/dividend policies. There are divergent views in the literature review in the context of measures of these variables, however no research has been done on exogenous shocks in macroeconomic variables to BSE SENSEX for the Indian stock market with this particular data set and duration.

In the article, the authors consider the issues of monetary policy as one of the main components of the economic policy of the state. A key role in the formation of monetary policy belongs to Central banks, which focus their activities on ensuring price or monetary stability, stability of the purchasing power of the national currency. The authors analyze the intermediate targets of monetary policy and its regimes carried out by economically developed countries of the world: monetary targeting, exchange rate targeting, inflation targeting or inflation targeting. An assessment is given of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation inflation targeting policy, which uses interest rate policy as the main instrument of monetary regulation, as one of the main channels of monetary policy impact on the economy, namely, changing the conditions for financing the real sector of the economy through the financial market.

Quarantine and self-isolation have become a new challenge for the Russian economy, changed many areas of our life, revealed new weaknesses in the banking system and monetary regulation of the economy, and also become a good test for the post-crisis financial system. In this article using a systematic approach to the study of information, analytical and graphical methods the dynamics of the Russian banking sector during the development of the coronavirus pandemic and the specifics of recovery from the crisis have been investigated. The innovations and improvements brought about by the pandemic have been studied. The Central Bank of Russia’s monetary policy instruments used to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the real economy in general and on the banking sector in particular have been reviewed. The features of anti-crisis measures taken by the monetary authorities in our country have been revealed.

The article provides a comparative analysis of the financial sector of Russia and other countries in the structure of the global economy; international comparisons are made over 30 years in terms of financial depth, including monetization, “saturation” with loans and securities, inflation, and interest rate. The inadequacy of the size of the financial sector to the size of the Russian economy is shown, the extremely high volatility of financial variables is analyzed (using the example of the exchange rate and changes in the institutional network (banks and non-bank financial institutions)). The model of the financial sector is revealed (excessive role of the state, overconcentration in the markets and among financial institutions, oligopolization, “monetary desertification” of regions, excessive administrative costs, focus on capital export). Shown is the “pro-crisis” nature of the financial sector in Russia (1– 2 crises in 10–15 years). The complete correspondence of the parameters of the financial sector of Russia to other developing economies is demonstrated (the fourth – seventh dozen countries in terms of financial depth). It is shown that the parameters of financial development, as a rule, are worse than the groups of countries with lower middle income (according to the international classification). The analysis of the Russian economic model made it possible to show the cause-and-effect relationships between it and the financial sector model, their interdependence. Four scenarios of the economic future (“besieged fortress”, “frozen economy”, “Spanish”, “growth economy”) are given, with estimates of their probability, and on this basis the corresponding scenarios for the future development of the Russian financial sector. The scenario of the “growth economy” based on the change in the model of the economy in Russia, the policy of “financial afterburner” and the formation of a new model of the financial sector in Russia is more fully disclosed.

The insurance industry is one of the important components of the world financial system because it provides economic protection for the society. Risk-based capital is a certain amount of capital that insurance companies must have on hand in order to hedge against their risks. This capital is there to make sure that the company can maintain solvency, and can fulfill all of its financial operating needs. This study aims to determine the factors that influence Risk-based capital (RBC) as the level of solvency of insurance companies in Indonesia. These factors are generally divided into 2 groups: internal factors (company characteristics) and external factors (macroeconomic factors). Internal factors consist of such variables as premium and liquidity. External factors consist of such variables as economic growth (GDP) and interest rates. The sample of this study is presented by 12 insurance companies that listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The study covers the period from 2014 until 2019. The analysis method used in this study is multiple regression with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) approach using Eviews software version 9.0. This method is used to analyze the effect of independent variables towards the dependent variable. The research results showed that the liquidity variable had a significant positive effect on risk based capital. At the same time the interest rate variable has a significant negative effect on risk based capital.

It is time for Nigeria to feed Nigerians with the aim of actualizing the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals in the area of zero hunger (food security). Recent statistics show increasing food insecurity issues; the global COVID 19 pandemic has further worsened the country's food (in)security situation. This study econometrically assessed the nexus of agricultural credit and sustainable food production in Nigeria. Secondary data on variables of interest were gotten from World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank and other relevant bodies. The data were analyzed using Unit Root Test (URT) and the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS). The study revealed that Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (ACGSF) and loan to agriculture from the commercial banks statistically and positively influenced food security within the study period. Lending interest rate and official exchange rate inversely influenced food security. The study concluded that credit is key to achieving self-sufficiency in food production. The post estimation tests on the models confirmed that policy implications from this study are applicable to improving food security. Proper and efficient policy mix to support agricultural production including provision of credit was recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction. Mortgage lending plays an important role both for the banking system and for the country’s economy as a whole. In addition to the main function of providing people with comfortable housing, mortgage system development stimulates various areas of the country's economy and creates conditions conducive for investment. The purpose of the paper is to single out the factors that have a negative impact on the home mortgage lending market on the basis of the case study of the Vologda Region. Materials and methods. The study was carried out on the basis of the statistical database of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, data from an integrated housing development institution DOM.RF and the territorial body of the Federal State Statistics Service in the Vologda Region, as well as the Numbeo database ratings. Methods of comparison and observation, analysis and synthesis were used to study the statistics of the main indicators of the home mortgage lending market. Results. The main factors influencing the home mortgage lending market have been identified: high loan interest rates, low wages (insolvency of the client), an increase in overdue debts, high prices in the housing market, etc. The author has put forward recommendations for the development of the home mortgage lending market. Discussion and Сonclusion. The study has shown that the mortgage market in the Vologda Region has considerable growth potential and that credit institutions should work more carefully with clients, which will help to reduce overdue debts. The research materials may be useful to researchers exploring the economic issue under consideration, as well as to commercial banks, regional and local authorities that can contribute to the development of mortgage lending.

The article examines the actual amount of capital investment in agricultural production. It is determined that despite their rapid nominal growth in the national currency, the real amount of investment, translated into the US currency, is insufficient to meet the needs of expanded reproduction. It is assumed that the main causes of the capital investment deficit are excessive inflation, excessive business risks and non-fulfillment of government obligations. In the Ukrainian economy there is a positive dynamics of capital investment in the agricultural sector of production, denominated in the national currency – for the period 2010–2019 their average annual value amounted to UAH 35.4 billion, the growth rate was 120.5%. Their share in the structure of capital investments of the country's economy is also increasing. The volume of capital investment in the agricultural sector of the economy, translated into a more stable currency (US dollars), in the reporting year of 2019, was lower not only than in the previous two years, but also than in 2013–2013. Their average annual growth was 105.7%. The average annual volume of capital investments in agriculture, forestry and fisheries of Ukraine for 2010–2019 is $ 2.02 billion. This amount is insufficient, as agriculture alone requires at least $ 2.9 billion annually investment. Among the sources of financing capital investments in agriculture, forestry and fisheries of Ukraine in the reporting period, more than 90% were at the expense of enterprises and organizations. This is not a normal situation, which indicates that there is a curtailment of bank lending for investment needs of farmers' the State does not fulfill its obligations to support the development of the agricultural economy; foreign investors, given excessive business risks, are reluctant to invest in Ukrainian domestic agricultural production. Restoring confidence in the State, inflation targeting, judicial reform and the uncompromising fight against raiding are key tools for improving the investment climate and increasing capital investment in the agricultural sector of Ukraine's economy.

The development of the real sector is essential to ensure the growth of national economy in any country. The principle institution working with money in economy is banks. They maintain cash circulation of real sector companies and act as a source of investment, which is allocated in the form of banking credits. Taking into account the fact that the goal of stimulating the real economy growth is set not only for the banking system but for economy in general, the approach to its attaining should be complex and systematic. Because of that it is very important to develop a list of steps that could provide a differentiated approach in the system of supporting companies of the real sector. Such measures’ implementation includes the participation of development institutions and therefore, banks in the system of national projects realization. Upgrading legislative regulation in the sphere of interaction between banks and business entities is extremely important as well as the development of new finance tools providing the growth in finance potential in the real sector of economy. The article analyzes banks’ participation in crediting the real sector of economy in Russia, studies the key characteristics of crediting and puts forward steps both on the macro- and micro-level, which could coordinate economic interests of companies and banks and cut costs.

Raising loan finance by industrial enterprises for the development of their investment projects is an important factor for economic growth in Russia. Due to this the problem of credit resource affordability for Russian business becomes more and more topical. The article analyzes possibilities of credit affordability regulation for industrial enterprises by tools of monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The author aims at indentifying the current problems of the credit system for industrial enterprises and finding the key lines in its improvement. Within the frames of the research the author estimates the impact of high and low interest rates on the volume of industry crediting, analyzes the structure of giving credits to non-financial organizations and studies the problem of long cash affordability for realizing investment projects in industry. The article also investigates the asset concentration in the banking sector and shows the higher role of state and the diminishing number of commercial banks and their branches. Certain important lines of development were identified, which in the future could determine the situation in industry crediting in Russia. Finding of the research can be used for devising the state strategy of developing the system of industry crediting in Russia.

The article is aimed at identifying features in the implementation of monetary policy in the face of increasing crisis phenomena in the world economy caused by the pandemic. The activities and changes introduced by the central banks of the European Union, the USA, the United Kingdom to regulate the financial sector are analyzed. The activities of the National Bank of Ukraine for the beginning of 2020 to support the economy are researched, the main measures of support and forecasts of monetary policy for the current and next year are determined. The main instrument of monetary policy of the NBU is the discount rate (refinancing rate). By changing its value, the NBU affects the value of money resources – reduces to provide access or increases to restrict access to funds. At the beginning of 2020, the NBU reduced the interest rate to 8% – in order to help the business survive the time of quarantine. The main measures of central banks to support the banking system, financial stability and stimulate business activity are defined. Such measures may include the following: providing additional liquidity to banks through the monetary policy instruments; imposing restrictions on the operations and activities of commercial banks, etc. Refinancing rates by the G7 central banks have been co-ordinated and are currently around 0,25%. The priority paths of developments and the actions by central banks to restore the world economy are provided. Central banks soften monetary policy and provide liquidity to the economy in order to maintain the credit activity of banking institutions and provide the economy with the necessary resources. Thanks to these efforts, foreign countries, as well as Ukraine, will be able to restore economic growth and reach the pre-projected economic indicators.

Monetary policy is one of the most powerful instruments of economic policy owned by the state. This is a set of measures aimed at changing the money supply, loan amount, interest rate and regu-lation of the banking system as a whole. That is why the article discusses the main issues of monetary policy and its development trends. In other words, what methods and tools are currently used by the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, their main advantages and disadvantages, macroeconomic results of monetary policy. In this regard, the purpose of this article is to study the financial and credit methods of state regulation of the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the concept of monetary policy. The study used economic methods used in the study of economic conditions. The article ana-lyzes the situation and indicators of monetary policy for the last two years of 2017 and 2018, as well as changes and trends in monetary policy in 2019. In 2018, the National Bank focused on the further development of the money and foreign exchange market, as well as the government securities market, and demonstrated the importance of a number of initiatives aimed at improving the effectiveness of monetary policy. The results of the study allow students to apply them during their studies.

The publication presents results of the carried out analysis of existing Western and domestic macro-economic models, which form the basis for determining the key parameters of monetary policy of the central banks in the respective countries. A study on the existing approaches to the formation of monetary rules of central banks in both advanced market economies and countries with emerging markets shows limited possibilities of efficient use of the classic J. Taylor rule and its modifications to form the Monetary Policy of the NBU. The carried out analysis of macro-economic indicators, as well as the use of the econometric analyzing methods, allowed to propose a possible approach to the problem of forming a monetary rule and developing a model of behavior of the NBU regulation of the basic macro-economic indicators together with setting the interest rate. A simultative model built on the basis of quarterly information for 15 reporting periods, displaying the main relationships between endogenous and exogenous variables, which determine the rule of monetary policy of the NBU, allowed to track the direction and nature of the causal relationships between the basic macro-economic parameters in the context of setting the interest rate by the NBU. The calculated forecast values of endogenous variables of the developed model, namely: consolidated balance, exchange rate, real GDP, real wages, interest rate of the NBU, consumer credit volumes, and consumer price index allowed to identify manageable tendencies in changing the values of these indicators and to conduct an analysis of possible scenarios of a macro-economic situation evolving. Practical use of the proposed approach (in the process of analyzing possible scenarios for the evolvement of key parameters of monetary policy and calculations of the forecast values of interest rate, consumer price index and other interconnected macro-indicators with carrying out the appropriate model calculations, the development of a structured multi-sectoral model, as well as taking into account the possible lag effects of changing economic conditions and the impact of qualitative factors on macro-indicators) potentially will allow a qualitatively new approach to the formation of mechanisms for analyzing and forecasting the monetary policy of Ukraine.

The global crisis of 2007–2009 exposed the problems of the financial system, arising from the rapid development of derivative financial instruments and the increase in transnational capital flows. Moreover, in countries with developed markets, whose economy was considered stable, the consequences were the most severe. The shortcomings of monetary policy pursued by the monetary authorities of most countries were revealed. The Central banks are transforming from institutions that support price stability and ensure the sustainability of the financial market into the main tool stimulating economic growth. In order to restore the economy after the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, the Central banks of the world’s leading countries began to move away from standard methods and tools of monetary policy. Fiscal policy mechanisms have been applied to support the economy in developing countries, while monetary policy instruments have been used in developed countries. The leading countries of the world have moved to the use of non-standard methods of monetary regulation of the economy. Monetary authorities began to designate the unemployment rate as a benchmark of monetary policy, as well as to pay attention to the management of expectations of market participants, using the policy of ‘forward guidance’, which allows to get information about the upcoming changes in the monetary policy and interest rates. It was necessary to rethink the goals and objectives of the regulators, not to be limited to ensuring the price stability. The USA, Japan, England and other countries are moving from interest rate policy to non-standard methods of monetary policy and, in particular, to the method of ‘quantitative easing’. These operations contributed to the reduction of rates on public and private securities, stimulated changes in the structure of investment portfolios and improved the conditions of bank lending. At the same time, the success of the world’s leading countries in using quantitative easing programmes, for example, to stabilize prices, is not so evident. Their regulation is connected with factors that are not controlled by the Central banks, as is often said by the heads of the Central Bank. The Central Banks’ executives and other representatives of the financial community in general positively assess the role and effectiveness of ‘untraditional’ monetary policy and when considering the termination of quantitative easing operations and the transition to pre-crisis standards of interest rate policy, the heads of the most Central banks do not want to rush. The article discusses the reasons for changes in monetary policy, the characteristics of the quantitative easing operations by countries, the problem of basic quantitative easing measures usage as an effective means of preventing and overcoming economic crises

It has been shown, that the financial crises in the last twenty years intensified attempts to rethink the dominant neo-liberal concepts of globalization of monetary and credit relations. Achievements of financial technology allowed to overcome some arising problems and generated hopes for a possibility of preservation of a former paradigm of market capitalism and regularities of globalization of world economy. However, a more detailed consideration of new developments in the field of international monetary and financial relations leads to the conclusion, that such hopes are illusory.

The present day paradigm of monetary and credit policy in Russia was designed by the national monetary authority only a decade ago. In this period of time the economic theory within the frames of public information space was discussing the problem expediency and possibility of Russian banking system passing over to the regime of inflation targeting. At the same time top management of the Bank of Russia in its practical work was constantly discussing the task of potential passing over to the floating rate of the national currency as a precondition for introducing the regime of inflation targeting. But as long as mid-2014 the introduction of the floating rate of the national currency was postponed by top management of the Bank of Russia. The principle reason was the fact that national economy and national currency were not ready to face and stand the test. But in spite of evident counter indications this test took place. It should be mentioned that passing over of the national currency to the regime of free floating was introduced by the Bank of Russia before the appointed time. The article studies key challenges and contradictions of the present day monetary and credit policy in Russia, which would not allow it to increase its efficiency. It shows that these problems and contradictions are stipulated both by system vices of the present concept of monetary and credit policy in Russia and specific features of its designing and realizing by the Bank of Russia, by peculiar decisions made by the Board of Directors, specific understanding on the part of top management and executives of institutional, instrumental and procedure components of the transmission mechanism, including specific understanding of the essence and nature of inflation, i.e. the subject of management within the frames of the present monetary and credit policy in Russia. The author puts forward and substantiates the hypothesis that nature of inflation is connected with money malfunction. Practical recommendations were provided aiming at raising efficiency of monetary and credit policy in Russia. The expediency of status revision and functional reforms of the National Finance Board was shown.

One of the means for medium and long-term investments is the capital market. Capital market is the most effective means for investors to invest in profits. This research aims to analyze the effect of changes in Return on Assets (ROA), Earnings per Share (EPS), Inflation Rate, and Interest Rate on stock return in SOE banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange within the research period of 2012-2016. This research uses secondary data. The research population is the financial statements of 4 Persero Banks including PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk, PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk, PT Bank Mandiri Tbk, and PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk within the research period of 5 years from 2012 to 2016. Research sampling was conducted using the purposive sampling method. The data analysis was carried out using classical assumption test, multiple linear regression analysis, t-test, and F-test with the help of SPSS 19. The research findings showed that the Interest Rate partially has a significant effect on Stock Return. Meanwhile, ROA, EPS, and Inflation Rate partially do not have a significant effect on Stock Return. Moreover, simultaneously ROA, EPS, Inflation Rate and Interest Rate have a significant effect on Stock Return.

For the credible and realistic analysis of liquidity of assets, balance, solvency, diagnostics and forecasting of bankruptcy, as well as in anti-crisis management situations, the top necessity is the reliable assessment of assets. The cost of assets which is reflected in the account, credibility of an assessment of net assets define the possibilities of calculations to track liabilities and solvency. The article scrutinises the ways of achievement of a reliable assessment of assets in relation to their real price in case of their possible sale. By means of integration of the provisions RAS and IFRS, and by assessing their similarities and distinctions, the authors consider the possibilities of improvement of quality of information in accounting and the reporting. The article discloses different types of costs which exist according to the Russian and international standards of accounting and the reporting. Net assets are used in the estimation of cost of assets as well as the concepts of fair value. The order of formation of reliable cost at sale of the fixed assets is considered by a method of comparison; upon the purchase of the fixed assets with a payment delay - by a method of discounting; when receiving a loan - on the basis of an effective rate of interest and according to the sum of the actually received money; and in case of determination of cost of stocks - the calculation is according to the net sale price. The offered examples of an assessment of assets and liabilities can be used when choosing the ways of an assessment of the capital in accounting and the reporting, in the financial analysis, in the determination of net assets taking into account a fair assessment, in the diagnostics of bankruptcy and anti- crisis management, when planning and forecasting, when searching for the solutions to the problems of improvement of the quality of information for the economic analysis in the conditions of market uncertainty and variability of the prices. The article might be of interest for students, postgraduates, undergraduates, teachers, scientific and practical workers of the sphere of economy.

Copyright of Cybernetics & Systems Analysis / Kibernetiki i Sistemnyj Analiz is the property of V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of NAS of Ukraine and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article is aimed at identifying ways to improve the crediting process for small and medium-sized businesses in the current economic and political conditions in Ukraine. The status of crediting of the sector of small and medium-sized business is considered, a statistical data analysis is carried out and a forecast of their change up to 2022 year is made. Programs of crediting and supporting of small and medium-sized business are considered in comparison with similar programs of the neighboring countries. Ways and directions of achievement of rapid development in the crediting of small and medium-sized businesses by banks are identified. It is proved that to improve the status of crediting of this sphere, there is a need to support on the part of not only foreign countries, but also on the part of Ukraine, also recommendations are proposed to simplify the process of crediting small and medium-sized businesses. The prospect for further consideration of the topic of crediting of small and medium-sized businesses is to develop preferential programs for crediting enterprises by the State.

The regular socio-economic monitoring studies are really essentialwith the purpose of development of an effective system for housing development sector support at the state level and of account of the diversity of factors, which impact the change of housing conditions of population. With this purpose, the authors performed benchmarking statistical analysis of the state and trends in the development of housing construction and housing provision in various regions of Russia, taking into account the availability of housing and the degree of tension in the housing and social sphere, as well as the opportunities, which are provided for the population to settle the housing issue through property lending The economic crisis could not relieve the "housing problem" for Russians, but only gave rise to housing deferred demand. Therefore, the researches are still timely of the housing policy development directions and of the solution of the housing problems, as well as of the housing lending system. In addition to solving the population housing affordability problem, the intensification of property lending policy directly affects the of new housing supply index of various degree of conventions. This is achieved through engaging of significant amounts of money by the population. The subject of the research is a set of indices of the conditions and of level of development of housing construction and related property lending. The information base of the research is the official data of the Federal State Statistics Service, of the Bank of Russia, as well as the materials of scientific publications and periodicals on the subject Statistical methods for identifying the trends and the cycles, for study of economic conditions and business activity, for analysis of structural breaks, for time series forecasting, as well as the tabular and graphical methods for visual representation of data are used as the main statistical tools. In accordance with the aim, the authors set and solved the tasks as follows: – the main features, problems and trends are specified in the development of housing constructions in the Russian Federation and its subjects;– regional differentiation is estimated in the level of housing provision of population and in the changes in its living conditions, taking into account the impact of crisis phenomena;– the intensity and directions are determined the of structural changes in the regional distribution of the total volume of housing;– the groups of the Russian regions are revealed, which are differed by the main characteristics of housing conditions of the population and by the scale and activity of housing construction;– the factors and criteria are considered of efficiency of housing property lending and a role of regional banks in this process;– the main problems are revealed, which constrain lending development in Russia.The results of the research are of practical importance for the Federal State Statistics Service in the course of monitoring of the state of the housing complex at the regional level, as well as for regional economic agencies in the development of programs for support and development of the housing construction sector.

In this article, we analyzed the growth of many worlds and Russian financial indicators observed in 2017. Despite signs of improvement in the economic, monetary and financial sectors, the situation remains difficult and many risks still remain.The aim of the study is to formulate the main trends of the past year, giving grounds for a critical analysis of some of the official Russian forecasts for 2018–2020.In our analysis, we used economic and statistical research methods. The methodology consists of the collection and analysis of primary data, on the basis of which conclusions are drawn about a number of global trends. At the same time, it is taken into account that the study of the economic and financial history of the past year makes it possible to trace the positive evolution of many processes in the world and the Russian economy and finance. We chose for the analysis a number of indicators (real GDP growth, stock indices, exchange rates, key rates of central banks, etc.), which allowed to demonstrate clearly the improvement of the situation in the economy and finance of a number of countries in 2017 (including Russia). It is shown that the Russian economy demonstrates the connection with global trends. We also constructed the regression model for Russian inflation.One of the main results of our analysis is the specification of some risks taking into account the peculiarities of the current global economic recovery and the high dependence of the Russian economy and finance on external factors. Our analysis is important for improving the forecasts for finance and the economy of theRussian Federationas a whole.The research of many Russian and global indicators and trends shows that risks in the economy and finance of the Russian Federation may increase due to the potential global instability and new Western sanctions on Russia in 2018. This can occur given the expected continuation of the current policy of the Bank of Russia, and in defiance of some optimistic official forecasts. It is necessary to review the current monetary and fiscal policy in order to reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on external factors (including political ones).

The paper analyses the risks of the global financial system and concludes that worsening sustainability in financial markets can impede the growth of the leading economies. Excesses in the global stock market are among the core risk factors. The analysis of the situation in Russia conducted in the paper reveals that interest rates are quite high, which hampers economic growth. The policy of monetary regulators is still based on external sources of funding the economy. Against a background of global unrest and more sanctions against Russia coming, such an approach can retard the development of the Russian economy even further. In this regard, the author justifies the relevance of using the money creation mechanism on the basis of national growth priorities and internal sources of its funding.

Practical experience of foreign countries testifies to the significant role of small business in ensuring the economic well-being of the country, which is facilitated, among other things, by a highly developed system of its financial support. In modern Russian conditions, the features of bank lending to small businesses give rise to a number of problems that complicate the opportunities for small business to use an affordable source of financing. In work on the basis of the analysis of existing problems, measures are proposed to develop a system of bank lending to small businesses.

Stock price index can be regarded as a barometer in the measuremet of a nation’s economic condition, besides it can also be used in conducting statistical analysis on the current market. Stock is the proof of one’s share in a company in the form of securities issued by the listed go-public companies. This study was conducted to measure the effect of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate on banking stock price index in Indonesia stock exchange or Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). The results of study show that inflation and exchange rate posively influence the stock price index. The positive effect of the exchange rate shows that issuers who were positively affected by Rupiah (IDR) depreciation appear to be the most dominant group. Meanwhile, the interest rate or Suku Bunga (SBI) has a negative effect. Lower interest rate stimulates higher investments and better economic activities which increase the stock price.

Copyright of Cybernetics & Systems Analysis / Kibernetiki i Sistemnyj Analiz is the property of V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of NAS of Ukraine and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article deals with investments as a component of personal finance management, which is designed to provide higher incomes than risk-free savings. The subject of work is a set of internal relations that arise in the process of financial management and are associated with the decision of the person to invest their own free funds. The purpose of the work is to justify the place of investment in the system of personal finance management. In the course of research, an analysis, synthesis as methods of theoretical knowledge of phenomena has been used. Comparisons and measurements are used as empirical methods for the conducted research. Separate conclusions of the study were obtained after analysing the dynamics of consumer price indices and interest rates for 2008-2016 in Ukraine and the interpretation of the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) by G. Markovitz. The results of the work are the formulation of the thesis that risk investment instruments as a component of personal finance management must meet the requirements of real incomes determined by Fisher equation. The combination of risk assets in the process of managing personal finances and the use of the theory by G. Markovits in the practice of Ukrainian households- investors arises in the area of application of the practical implications in this sphere of financial science.

The ruble economy must be shaped by a correct monetary policy; therefore, ruble assets must be estimated more realistically (which means they should cost more). „When they try to convince us that the weak ruble is better for us it seems absurd and akin to the saying that the more lightweighted is the salary we receive or are the rubles placed with our bank accounts or in the purse and the less we can buy for them it is advantageous for us. We are setting up the ruble-, not the dollar-based economy, and the more expensive will be ruble assets owned by the households and business, the richer they will be. Of course, mechanisms are needed to protect the domestic market and promote exports. But who said that they are all confined to the exchange rate? After all, its impact has often opposite venues, and the devaluation stimulates primarily the export of raw materials increasing the dependence of our economy on the world market…” (from an interview with „Bankovsky Ryad”).

The article discusses conditions of finance investment in the development of productive forces in Russia. Factors of investment appeal to global investors are shown. The author analyzes key factors determining investment appeal of finance investment in tools of Russian stock market: dynamics of macro-economic indicators, dividend profitability, corporate governance, infrastructure of finance market. Interconnection between liquidity and volatility of Russian stock market and the nature of transactions - speculative and investment - was researched. Risks of managing finance investment based on tools and mechanisms of stock market were estimated. The author worked out recommendations aimed at attracting investment capital on the basis of instruments and tools of stock market and designed steps necessary to intensify factors of investment appeal of Russian stock market.

The monetary policy affects the regional economy through interest rates and its main parameter the Bank of Russia key rate. But do all the banks in the regions respond uniformly to monetary policy changes? The effects of monetary policy actions can vary across the regions within an economic entity, depending on the regional industrial output, the financial structure, household incomes, lending activity, etc. The analysis of the article aims to determine the monetary policy instruments that influence the development or degradation of the regional banking sector in Russia. This helps to identify the heterogeneous commercial bank responses to changes in conducted monetary policy. In order to assess the effects of macroeconomic shocks and instruments of banking supervision on lending activity, the Ordinary Least Squares estimator and Generalized Least Squares technique were applied. The Taylor rule was used to calculate the desired level of interest rate for the each region and, then, to compare the results with the Central Bank interest rate. The empirical results, described in the context of the regional analysis, demonstrate that Central Bank’s interest rate does not affect the lending activity in most of the regions. Finally, the author summarizes conclusions one can draw from the results and provides recommendations for economic policy makers, based on the results of empirical analysis.

Macroeconomic situation in Russia in 2013-14 characterized by increasing ofthe debt, credit, investment and financial problems that threaten the national financial and economic security. Features of the tight fiscal and monetary policies inRussia, based on the money (emission),credit and interest rate restrictions maylead to a debt crisis, trends of which are appearing now. Therefore it requires the radical change in the financial and monetary policy in order to maintain businessactivity and international competitivenessof Russian.

Objective: to identify patterns of monopolistic competition as applied to markets of household appliances, consumer loans and insurance products in Russia. Methods: econometric modeling, trending, regression analysis, analysis of statistical significance. Results: the statistical analysis of trends in the market of household appliances, insurance and credit markets has been carried out; the statistical significance and adequacy of the models has been assessed; adequate and accurate regression models of price trends of household appliances and electronics have been developed, as well as of the interest rates of consumer loans and insurance rates for loan debts. Scientific novelty: the actual patterns of decreasing demand curves for household appliances, consumer loans and insurance products were found for the relevant markets in the Russian Federation in 2009-2014. Practical significance: the model can be used for solving problems of optimal planning strategies of retailers, insurers and banks.

The article describes the Bank of Russia’s policy in recent years. Comparative analysis of the Bank’s policy with those of other countries with structurally similar economies, shows that the Bank of Russia is following a dysfunctional policy. The basic manifestation of this policy is not only the wrong definition of the Bank’s function, but also doubtful implementation mechanisms of this function. Pro-cyclical character of the Bank of Russia’s activity leads to a greater strengthening of a resource economic model. The study shows that without an adjustment of the Bank’s monetary policy Russian economy will just keep reproducing a steady tough environment that mostly aims at short-term restrictions but not at change stimulation. One of indispensable prerequisites of such adjustment is to create a macroeconomic policy which will be more adequate to the economy’s growth and development

In order to conduct an effective monetary policy, the Central bank should have a clear understanding of the mechanism of the money transfer and the importance of different transmission channels, and the impact of these transmission channels on the sectors of the economy, especially on the manufacturing sector.

Objective: to analyze problems and specifics of inflation in Russia. Methods: inductive and deductive. Results: the article analyzes the problems and features of inflation in Russia. The characteristic of inflation, the level and causes are given. The dynamics of inflation in Russia (from 2001 till 2013) is analyzed. The most significant factors and processes are determined and analyzed, that determine the level of inflation in the Russian economy. It is shown that the main reasons boosting inflation are high lending rates and annual increase of tariffs of natural monopolies. It is proved that the phenomena and processes that occur in the analyzed period, do not comply with the monetary rule. Measures are proposed to control inflation in the Russian economy. Scientific novelty: new causes of inflation were detected; the Russian specifics of the phenomenon is shown. Practical value: possibility to optimize the measures of state control over the Russian economy.

In article the analysis of statistical data about developments of the market of mortgage lending of the Russian Federation from 2006 for 2014 on volumes and quantity of the granted mortgage loans, rates of a gain of volumes of delivery of mortgage lending, to crediting rates is carried out. The conclusion is drawn on delay of development of the market of mortgage lending in the first half of the year 2015.

In the article the author considers a problem of an optimal way of borrowing during the pre-crisis period (deciding between ruble and foreign currency borrowings). It is obvious that during the period of stable economic growth, when currency pair rate (for example, ruble - USA dollar) doesn't change significntly, the lower interest rate of foreign currency loans makes them a cheaper way of borrowing. But during a crisis an abrupt growth of currency pair rate can make foreign currency loan a more expensive way of borrowing (as compared to ruble loan). The author suggests a scenario-based method of decision making about an optimal way of borrowing during a pre-crisis period, which affords to calculate a threshold meaning of currency pair rate, after which a foreign currency loan becomes more expensive. Application of the method is illustrated on the example of a situation in a telecommunication sector in Russian Federation during currency crisis of 2014. A detailed analysis if the situation in the sector in the last pre-crisis year (2013) is provided. Structures of debt burdens of the leading companies (Vimpelcom, MTS and Megafon) are considered. Percent shares of currency loans, shares of borrowing types and according interest rates are provided. In the conclusion of the article some specific aspects of application of suggested method and potential ways of its improvement are considered.