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The method of discounted cash flows (DCF) is one of the main and popular methods of economic assessment of business, which is used all over the world. However, the actual behavior of business projects evaluated by this method often differs from that predicted, and the difference can be tens of times.It should be noted that at present, the discounted cash flow method is a subject of extensive literature, but there are no analytical arguments for large discrepancies between the theory and practice of the method. The aim of the study is to provide a theoretical explanation of the forecasting errors inherent in the discounted cash flow method. The research method is related to the analysis of the traditional method of discounted cash flows, which shows that the key indicator that affects the final result is the net income for a certain period of time. Analyzing the economic content of the flows that appear in the formation of net income, we can conclude that for a trade-type enterprise, the cash flow of receipts associated with current operations is significantly random and, therefore, requires the use of stochastic description methods.The paper offers a mathematical model of the mentioned cash flow. It is assumed that the event associated with a purchase (cash receipt) is modeled on the time axis by a point with a random time of occurrence. Then, obviously, the number of points n that appear on a fixed time interval will be a random number. A justification is given for the fact that the point process is a Poisson random point process or simply a Poisson point process, in which the times of occurrence of points W1 ,W2 , ..., Wi and their number N(t) at time t are random variables. We introduce the function λ(t), which characterizes the average number of cash receipts (purchases) per unit of time. From an economic point of view, it is driven by consumer preferences of buyers, and from a mathematic point of view it is a function of the intensity of appearance of points of the Poisson process. The monetary values of purchases made by customers are described by random positive ui values which arise at the Wi moments of the occurrence of shopping events, simulate a random process of cash receipts at the enterprise.Introduction to the consideration of the random Poisson flow of business receipts and their values, which are also random positive values with an arbitrary probability distribution, is the key assumption of the work. The proposed approach allowed us to develop a stochastic model of the company’s revenues, generalize the method of discounted cash flows, obtain a number of simple ratios, and on this basis explain the growth of the method forecast error with an increase in the duration of the forecast horizon.New results of the study are the use of stochastic methods to describe business revenues and expressions obtained on this basis for the variance and standard deviation of the company’s net cash flow, depending on the number of forecasting periods. It is shown that the growth of the standard deviation of the net cash flow, i.e. the forecasting errors, is a fundamental feature of the method in this interpretation. For the initial estimates, a simple expression is obtained and corresponding graphs are given.In conclusion, it is noted that the presented graphs of the behavior of the standard deviation of the method estimates show that the estimate from below of the mentioned deviation slowly grows with an increase in the number of prediction periods and depends only on the number of periods. It is noted that this growth is calculated in relation to the first forecast period, which itself may contain errors, and it is determined only by consumer preferences. Of course, you can choose the forecast period not a month, but, for example, a year, but then the error of the first period will be significantly increased. Thus, this review makes it possible to explain some aspects of the growth of the error of the discounted cash flow method with the forecast time.

Предмет исследования – оценка стоимости предприятия. База данной работы – Ð±ÑƒÑ Ð³Ð°Ð»Ñ‚ÐµÑ€ÑÐºÐ°Ñ отчетность ООО «Трансбункер». Целью выпускной квалификационной работы является оценка стоимости нефтеперерабатывающей компании с помощью Ð´Ð¾Ñ Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ и сравнительного Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ñ Ð¾Ð´Ð°. В работе рассмотрены основные существующие методы оценки стоимости компании, изучена структура и особенности компании ООО «Трансбункер», проведен анализ финансово-Ñ Ð¾Ð·ÑÐ¹ÑÑ‚Ð²ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ деятельности предприятия, произведена оценка стоимости компании двумя Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ñ Ð¾Ð´Ð°Ð¼Ð¸. Результат работы –рассчитанная стоимость ООО «Трансбункер», полученная Ð´Ð¾Ñ Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ñ‹Ð¼ и сравнительным Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ñ Ð¾Ð´Ð°Ð¼Ð¸., The topic of the final qualifying work is "Estimation of the value of an oil refining company (on example of LLC «Transbunker»)". The object of the research is LLC «Transbunker». The subject of research is the assessment of the value of the enterprise. The basis of this work is the financial statements of LLC «Transbunker». The purpose of the final qualifying work is to assess the value of an oil refining company using a profitable and comparative approach. The paper considers the main existing methods for assessing the value of the company, studies of the structure and features of the company LLC «Transbunker», analyzes of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise, and evaluation of the value of the company using two approaches. The result of the work is the estimated cost of LLC "Transbunker", obtained by profitable and comparative approaches.

Вопросы оценки эффективности инвестиционной стратегии в условиях ограниченных финансовых ресурсов требует применения стратегических подходов, учитывающих риски финансовой среды. В статье представлена инвестиционная стратегия для предприятия, а также оценена ее эффективность., Issues of evaluating the effectiveness of an investment strategy in conditions of limited financial resources require the application of strategic approaches that take into account the risks of the financial environment. The article presents an investment strategy for the enterprise, as well as its effectiveness., Экономика и предпринимательство, Выпуск 5 (118) 2020

В Ñ Ð¾Ð´Ðµ исследования были проведены: 1. Обзор ÑÑƒÑ‰ÐµÑÑ‚Ð²ÑƒÑŽÑ‰Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ñ Ð¾Ð´Ð¾Ð² к оценке бизнеса и выявление Ð¸Ñ ÑÐ¸Ð»ÑŒÐ½Ñ‹Ñ Ð¸ ÑÐ»Ð°Ð±Ñ‹Ñ ÑÑ‚Ð¾Ñ€Ð¾Ð½. 2. Анализ Ð¾Ñ‚Ñ€Ð°ÑÐ»ÐµÐ²Ñ‹Ñ Ð¾ÑÐ¾Ð±ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾ÑÑ‚ÐµÐ¹ нефтегазового сектора Российской Федерации, Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ñ‹Ð²Ð°ÑŽÑ‰Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð»Ð¸ÑÐ½Ð¸Ðµ на результат оценки Ð½ÐµÑ„Ñ‚ÐµÐ³Ð°Ð·Ð¾Ð²Ñ‹Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð¿Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¹. 3. Разработка и обоснование комплексного Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ñ Ð¾Ð´Ð°, позволяющего учесть отраслевые факторы нефтегазового сектора. В Ñ Ð¾Ð´Ðµ проведенного исследования использовались следующие методы: метод системного анализа, метод сравнительного Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ñ Ð¾Ð´Ð° и метод классификации. Предметом исследования являются факторы, оказывающие влияние на результат оценки Ð½ÐµÑ„Ñ‚ÐµÐ³Ð°Ð·Ð¾Ð²Ñ‹Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð¿Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ð¹. Научной новизной работы является обоснование Ð²ÐµÑÐ¾Ð²Ñ‹Ñ ÐºÐ¾ÑÑ„Ñ„Ð¸Ñ†Ð¸ÐµÐ½Ñ‚Ð¾Ð² при расчете конечной справедливой стоимости компании на основе Ñ‚Ñ€ÐµÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ñ Ð¾Ð´Ð¾Ð², Ð¸ÑÑ Ð¾Ð´Ñ из значимости каждого Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ñ Ð¾Ð´Ð° для оценки компаний из Ñ€Ð°Ð·Ð½Ñ‹Ñ ÑÐµÐºÑ‚Ð¾Ñ€Ð¾Ð² производства. Областью применения результатов работы являются нефтегазовые предприятия и проектные институты минерально-сырьевого комплекса России. Предложен комплексный Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ñ Ð¾Ð´ для увеличения эффективности процесса оценки компаний нефтегазового сектора, в Ñ€Ð°Ð¼ÐºÐ°Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ñ‚Ð¾Ñ€Ð¾Ð³Ð¾ учтены отраслевые особенности ÑÑ‚Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ñ€ÐµÐ´Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸ÑÑ‚Ð¸Ð¹. Произведена оценка стоимости нефтегазодобывающей компании ОАО «Севернефтегазпром» с учетом предложенного Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ñ Ð¾Ð´Ð°., Tasks solved during the study: 1. Review of existing approaches to business valuation and identification of their strengths and weaknesses. 2. Analysis of the sectoral features of the oil and gas sector of the Russian Federation, influencing the result of the assessment of oil and gas companies. 3. Development and substantiation of an integrated approach that allows taking into account the sectoral factors of the oil and gas sector within the framework of existing approaches to assessment. In the course of the study, the following methods were used: system analysis method, method of comparative approach and classification method. The subject of this research is the factors influencing the result of the assessment of oil and gas companies. The scientific novelty of the work is the substantiation of the weighting coefficients when calculating the final fair value of the company on the basis of three approaches, based on the significance of each approach for evaluating companies from different production sectors. As a result, an integrated approach was proposed to increase the efficiency of the process of assessing companies in the oil and gas sector, within which the industry characteristics of these enterprises were taken into account. The cost of the oil and gas production company OJSC “Severneftegazprom” was assessed taking into account the proposed approach.

В работе рассмотрены способы финансирования компании. Описаны различия между первичным публичным размещением и альтернативными способами финансирования. Исследованы методы продажи акций при первичном публичном размещении. Охарактеризована деятельность ритейлера детских товаров. Произведен анализ рынка. Осуществлена финансовая диагностика анализируемого предприятия, полученные результаты проанализированы. Исследованы правовые основы оценки бизнеса. Произведена оценка стоимости компании с использованием затратного, сравнительного и доходного подхода. Использованы методы стоимости чистых активов, рынка капитала, дисконтированных денежных потоков. Рассмотрены различные способы определения ставки дисконтирования. Выявлена итоговая стоимость компании., The paper discusses ways to finance the company. The differences between the initial public offering and alternative financing methods are described. The methods of selling shares during the initial public offering are investigated. Characterized by the activities of the retailer of children's goods. Produced market analysis. Financial diagnostics of the analyzed company is carried out, the obtained results are analyzed. The legal basis for business valuation is investigated. The valuation of the company using the cost, comparative and income approach. The methods used are net asset value, capital market, discounted cash flows. Various methods for determining the discount rate are considered. Identified the total value of the company.