Search

Fixed Capital has a major role in economic growth literature and on the estimation of potential output using a production function - which is essential to design macroeconomic policy. One of the main contributions of this work, differently from the previous works, is to estimate the capital stock from a disaggregated perspective using Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) by product level throughout a detailed and historical treatment of the data from System of National Accounts (SNA). This methodology avoids distortions arise from changes in relative prices and changes in capital composition, capturing the real GFCF flows with precision and leading to better estimation of depreciation and net investment. In order to obtain a consistent and disaggregated time series of GFCF, it was necessary to adapt information from different methodologies obtained in the Supply and Uses Tables and in the Input-Output Tables (IO), as well as to use depreciation rates and life cycle in terms of products. At the end, annual estimates of the following variables were obtained for the period from 1947 to 2017: net fixed capital stock, net investment, investment rate, depreciation rate and capital/output ratio. Another contribution of this paper is the estimation of series with higher frequencies (quarterly and monthly), with data updated until 2019 and compatible with the SNA expanding the scope of application of the estimated series for short-run analysis.

The present paper is a formalization of the critique of the growth with foreign savings strategy. Although medium income countries are capital poor, current account deficits (foreign savings), financed either by loans or by foreign direct investments, will not usually increase the rate of capital accumulation or will have little impact on it in so far as current account deficits will be associated with appreciate exchange rates, increased real wages and salaries and high consumption levels. In consequence, the rate of substitution of foreign savings for domestic savings will be relatively high, and the country will get indebted to consume, not to invest and grow. Only when there are large investment opportunities, stimulated by a sizeable difference between the expected rate of profit and the long term interest rate, additional income originated by foreign capital flows will be used for investment and this trade-off between foreign savings and domestic savings reduction will not occur O presente artigo é uma formalização da crítica à estratégia do crescimento com poupança externa. Apesar dos países de renda média serem pobres em capital, os déficits em conta corrente (poupança externa), financiados por empréstimos ou investimentos diretos externos, não necessariamente farão aumentar a taxa de acumulação de capital ou, mesmo, terão pouco impacto sobre ela, de forma que os déficits em conta serão associados a taxas de câmbio apreciadas, altos salários e ordenados reais e altos níveis de consumo. Conseqüentemente, o país se endividará para consumir, e não para investir e crescer. Apenas quando há grandes oportunidades de investimento, estimulados por uma diferença considerável entre a taxa de lucro esperada e a taxa de juros a longo prazo, o lucro adicional produzido pelo fluxo de capital estrangeiro será usado para investimento, e este trade-off entre a redução da poupança externa e interna não ocorrerá