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Copyright of Acta Comportamentalia is the property of Instituto de Psicologia y Educacion de la Universidad Veracruzana and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper aimed to present the heuristics and biases of Representativity and Disponibility, which, to a greater or lesser extent, may lead to misleading conclusions, and which are linked to the judgment and/or prediction of uncertainty scenarios. The teaching of probability and statistics in secondary education in Brazil has turned to the mathematical form of theory, without discussions and practical situations that would allow a consistent view of theory, facilitates the appearance of biases. The analysis consisted of the application of a pre-test, followed by discussions and activities in the area of probability and statistics, ending with a post-test, to analyze the reasoning of high school students against standards that can lead to errors of judgment. The heuristic resistance was verified more expressively in one type and moderately in another. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to reveal the possibilities that some workshops offer for the learning of mathematics and demonstrate how the articulation of references from Situated Learning and Cultural Historical Activity Theory may illuminate the occurrence of mathematics learning. A workshop on probability, part of the integral educational project for the municipal schools of Belo Horizonte, is presented. Students were attending the 4th and 5th year of elementary school. The empirical data consisted of excerpts of the transcriptions of the interactions between the students extracted from field notes and audio and video recordings. As a result, it is stressed the potential of the theoretical articulation implemented to delineate signs of learning (equiprobability, event, impossible event) in classrooms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agricola e Ambiental - Agriambi is the property of Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agricola e Ambiental and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

It is of great importance to know the rain distribution in the region of Tangará da Serra (latitude 14°37′55″S, longitude 57°28′05″W and altitude 488 m), as it is an agricultural region, which makes such information essential for an adequate planning, maximization of agricultural potential and optimization of hydric resources. Thus, this work was aimed at evaluating the annual, monthly and ten-day pluviometric variability, and also quantifying the number of dry and rainy days and different levels of rain probability for the region. Pluviometric data provided by ′Agência Nacional de Águas′ (ANA) were used to analyze a period of 38 years (from January 1970 to December 2007). Precipitation behavior in Tangará da Serra has annual and monthly variations, constituting two well defined seasons - a dry one from May to September, and a rainy one from October to April. Annual variability during the analyzed period corresponds to the maximum value of 2,861, minimum of 1,404 and average of 1,830 mm, respectively. The incomplete gamma function adequately expresses precipitation probability in Tangará da Serra. Precipitation averages range from 40 to 50% probability for rainy months and from 30 to 40% for dry ones. According to the results, this type of research might help the elaboration and development of irrigation projects in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Electrónica de Enseñanza de las Ciencias is the property of Revista Electronica de Ensenanza de las Ciencias and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Objective: To compare official mapping with probabilistic mapping of infestation by Aedes spp. in the municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil., Methods: This was an ecological study using data from samples of mosquito breeding sites collected in 2016-2017; official classification was obtained from epidemiological reports, and infestation per municipality and week was estimated by fitting a dynamic site-occupancy model to data from municipal epidemiological surveillance., Results: 187,245 samples collected in 473 municipalities returned 10,648 detections of Aedes aegypti, and 8,414 detections of Aedes albopictus; official mapping agrees with probabilistic mapping in municipalities in the northwestern and western regions of the state. The mappings are not in agreement in the eastern, central, northeastern and southern regions, revealing municipalities officially not infested but with high probability of infestation and notification of arbovirus infection., Conclusion: While official classification identified critically infested municipalities in the state's northwestern and western regions, it did not identify infestation in municipalities with possible false zero errors and where infestation varies over time.

Objective: To evaluate the effects of using a flipchart (serial album) on maternal self-efficacy in breastfeeding and its effects on exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) in children's first two months of life., Method: Clinical trial in Recife, Northeastern Brazil, with 112 women in the third trimester of gestation, randomly distributed in intervention group (IG) and control group (CG). The intervention was the use of the flipchart in IG. Data collection was performed through interviews in the prenatal period, and telephone contact at second, fourth and eighth weeks postpartum. The Breastfeeding Self-Efficacy Scale-Short-Form (BSES-SF) was used to measure self-efficacy scores. In the analysis, was used descriptive, bivariate statistics through tests of comparisons of proportions and means, and relative risk assessment., Results: There was a statistically significant difference in mean values of self-efficacy scores between women in the IG and CG (p<0.001) and in EBF rates (p<0.001). The probability of exclusively breastfeeding in IG was twice as high than in CG (RR 2.2, CI 1.51-3.21)., Conclusion: The use of a flipchart as an educational tool had positive effects on self-efficacy scores for breastfeeding and in maintenance of EBF in the IG. Brazilian Registry of Clinical Trials: RBR-5N7K99.

Objective: To associate anthropometric measures with arterial hypertension and develop a mathematical model to estimate this probability., Subjects and Methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out with 3,445 adults of both sexes, between 18 and 60 years of age. Body mass index (BMI), waist-to-height ratio (WHR), waist circumference (HC), in addition age and sex were assessed. Blood pressure (BP) was measured and classified according to World Health Organization (WHO) and Brazilian Society of Hypertension (SBH) recommendations, using frequency analyses, correlation and logistic regression between variables, with p < 0.05., Results: Males were twice as likely as woman to have hypertension, and for each year of life, the chance of hypertension increased 1.04 times. Odds ratio of hypertension in overweight individual increased two times, and in obese subjects, four times., Conclusion: Changes in body composition with advancing age, especially in men, were associated with hypertension, and assessment of these changes was relevant in the identification of this disease.

This is an article on probability sampling written to describe the methods used to calculate and calibrate sample weights of the Brazilian Oral Health Survey (SBBrasil 2003) and identify sample structural variables. It presents an overview of the efforts made to retrieve information from the records used to select the sample units in the sampled municipalities and describes the main problems observed with the survey's database, that acted as constraints tocal culating the natural sample weights and identifying primary sampling units and selection strata. It compares weighted sample estimates with previously published unweighted sample descriptive statistics, concluding that the oral health of the Brazilian population was better than previously disclosed.

Objective: Estimate the number of live births and, therefore, underreporting of live births., Methods: The databases of the Live Birth Information System and the Civil Registry of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, from the second and third trimesters of 2006 in Sergipe state (Northeastern Brazil) were paired by deterministic linkage based on the number of the Live Birth Declaration. The geographic disaggregation utilized was mother's microregion of residence. Huggins closed population models were used to estimate the capture probabilities for each database and the total live births during the period, within each geographic subdivision. MARK® software was used for the estimates., Results: Underregistration during the period studied was 19.3%. Application of the capture-recapture method to estimate underregistration of live births is possible, including for geographic disaggregations smaller than a state. The deterministic linkage was impaired in four microregions, due to non-inclusion of the Live Birth Declaration number in the database of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Maternal age, a heterogeneity characteristic in the population of live births, affected the probability of capture by the civil registry., Conclusions: Capture-recapture was a viable method to estimate the underregistration of live births.

The purpose of the study was to compare the linkage parameter estimates between hospitalization and mortality databases, calculated separately for the subsets of deaths from ill-defined causes and deaths from known causes. The databases for deaths from known causes and ill-defined causes were linked to a hospital admissions database. Parameters were estimated using two strategies: (1) first name, last name, and day, month, and year of birth, (2) full name and date of birth. In the first strategy, the estimates for the first and last name were at least 97% in both sets. However, the items day, month, and year of birth produced low values in both sets. In the second strategy there was an important difference between the two groups, with much lower values for full name and especially for date of birth in the group of deaths from ill-defined causes. Our results emphasize the need for pilot studies to evaluate possible internal heterogeneity of databases during the planning stage of linkage projects.

This study aims to contribute to the discussion on the possibility of applying health economics assessment, specifically the cost-effectiveness technique, to renal replacement therapies for end-stage renal failure. A review was conducted on the interventions and their alternative courses from the perspective of the various methodological proposals in the literature, considering the availability of data and information in Brazil to back this type of research.

Objective: To assess underreporting of live birth records by health information systems., Methods: Secondary data of the Sistema de Informação Hospitalar (Hospital Information System - SIH) and of the Sistema de Informação de Nascidos Vivos (Information System on Live Birth - SINASC) were used in the state of Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil, in 2001. Two procedures were used in the analysis: the comparison between the number of live births per city and the probabilistic record linkage of individual data. For both procedures, indicators of underreporting considered were the proportion of live births presented at SIH system that were not obtained at SINASC. The municipalities were later added into four strips of population size., Results: The probabilistic linkage was able to identify a greater proportion of live births underreported at SINASC, relative to the comparison of live births in the municipalities. The variations of the differences among underreporting percentages per procedures were 9.4% in cities with population lower than 5,000 inhabitants; 9.1% in cities with population ranging from 5,000 and 9,999; and 8.0% in municipalities between 10,000 and 49,999 and over 50,000 inhabitants., Conclusions: The amount of underreporting was sensitive to the procedures adopted. Probabilistic linkage reinforced the certainty of pairings, and also enabled to identify a greater proportion of cases not recorded at SINASC, also in greater cities. SIH was a strong indicator of underreporting of live births.

Objective: To evaluate the impact on tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates of removal of improper duplicate records from the notification system., Methods: Data from the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (Brazilian Information System for Tuberculosis Notification) from 2000 to 2004 were analyzed. Repeat records were identified through probabilistic record linkage and classified into six mutually exclusive categories and then kept, combined or removed from database., Results: Of all TB records, 73.7% had no duplicate, 18.9% were duplicate, 4.7% were triplicate, and 2.7% were quadruplicate or more. Of all repeat records, 47.3% were classified as transfer in/out; 23.6% return after default, 16.4% true duplicates, 10% relapse, 2.5% inconclusive and 0.2% had missing data. These proportions were different in Brazilian states. Removal of improper duplicate records reduced TB incidence rate per 100.000 inhabitants by 6.1% in the year 2000 (from 44 to 41.3), 8.3% in 2001 (from 44.5 to 40.8), 9.4% in 2002 (from 45.8 to 41.5), 9.2% in 2003 (from 46.9 to 42.6) and 8.4% in 2004 (from 45.4 to 41.6)., Conclusions: The study results indicate that the observed tuberculosis incidence rates represent estimates that would be closer to the actual rates than those obtained from the raw database at state and country level. The use of record linkage approach should be promoted for better quality of notification system data.

The aim of this study was to investigate the spatial pattern of neonatal and post-neonatal mortality in the city of Goiânia, Central Brazil. Analyses were based on linked birth and death certificates relating to 101,000 in-hospital live births from mothers residing in the city of Goiânia over the 1992-1996 period. Overall neonatal and post-neonatal mortality probabilities were calculated using the linked database. The empirical Bayes method was applied to smooth the estimated rates and minimize random fluctuation. Spatial units of analysis were 65 urban districts, corresponding to the urban planning sectors. The following exploratory spatial analyses were applied: "global" Moran's I statistic, local Moran LISA map, and Gi* local statistics. For both neonatal and post-neonatal mortality there was statistically significant spatial autocorrelation. Results of post-neonatal mortality showed a high-risk cluster located on the outskirts of the city. For the neonatal period, a heterogeneous mortality pattern was found with high-risk districts in all regions, including central areas.

Objective: To evaluate the use of thrombolytic and acetylsalicylic acid therapies in acute myocardial infarct patients as well as the availability of technical and human resources for the care of these patients in the emergency units of the city of Rio de Janeiro. Additional objectives were the evaluation of the use of primary angioplasty and the level of acceptance of SBC /RJ as an entity responsible for programs of continued medical education., Methods: Interviews with physicians at 46 emergency units in the city of Rio de Janeiro., Results: Of the 46 emergency units inspected, a policy of encouragement to use thrombolytic therapy was only prescribed in 6.5%. In 1/3 of the public wards no thrombolytic agents were available, and in none of them was access to primary angioplasty regularly available; 45.9% did not offer the minimal conditions required for the handling of cases of acute myocardial infarction; 60% of the physicians on-call (at both public and private emergency units), appeared not to know the importance of the use of acetylsalicylic acid in acute myocardial infarct patients; all physicians interviewed would participate in programs of continued medical education organized by the SBC/RJ., Conclusion: The study suggests there was: 1) the low probability of the use of thrombolytic therapy in the majority of the emergency units in of the city of Rio de Janeiro due to the inadequate policy of waiting for the transfer of the patient to coronary or intensive care unit; 2) a low awareness to the importance of early use of acetylsalic acid in acute myocardial infarct; 3) half of the emergency units of the public net do not have the minimal conditions required for the handling of cases of acute myocardial infarction; 4) a high level of credibility exists that would enable the SBC/RJ to set up programs for continued medical education to change the mentality regarding the use of thrombolytic therapy and of acetylsalicylic acid.

A procedure for the estimation of the infant mortality rate in Brazil, in the 1980's, based only on the age distribution of registered deaths, is here proposed. Using this technique, it is possible to estimate the probabilities of dying in the first year of life in a continuous way, year by year, for different regions of the country. The space-time distribution of the main causes of infant deaths is analysed and the relevance of using this coefficient to express the social and economic conditions of the Brazilian population from 1979 to 1989 is discussed.

A birth-cohort of 4,876 children born alive in hospital were selected and followed through up to the age of one year with a view to estimating the risk of dying in the first year of life. All of them were born in 1989, in one of the seven hospitals of an urban area of Southern Brazil and the only requirement for belonging to the cohort was that of residence on the area. The selected variables were: sex, birthweight, age at moment of death, underlying cause of death, and maternal age. The estimated probability of dying in the first year was of 19.9 per 1,000 (77.3% of the deaths occurred during the neonatal period). Perinatal causes and congenital malformations contributed to 80% of the deaths, and infectious diseases were the underlying cause of death in only 1.1% of the losses. The risk of dying in the first year of life due to afections arising during the perinatal period was higher among vaginally delivered babies (20.3 per 1,000) than it was for those born by cesarean section (9 per 1,000). A higher probability of death was present among infants born to adolescent mothers, and those with low birthweight (less than 2,500g). The results brought out the need for improving the quality of prenatal and infant care. They also suggested the hypothesis of a possible association between higher infant mortality and lower socio-economic level.