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Assuming that the perpetrator’s consciousness – as well as his actions – constitute the ontic basis of criminal responsibility the author formulates a number of remarks regarding reconstruction of the aforementioned consciousness in a criminal trial. The Reconstruction consists of some kind of intersubjectivization, since for obvious reasons it can only take place after the deed was committed (i.e. ex post), and the subject performing it is a judge. An important distinction is that between diagnostic and predictive consciousness. This is because the perpetrator – as any human being – is not only diagnosing the surrounding reality, but, particularly when trying to achieve some purpose (the effect of the forbidden behavior), is making predictions simultaneously. Distinguishing between diagnoses and predictions may affect the interpretation of errors, constituting a base for exclusion of criminal responsibility. Reconstructing the state of perpetrator’s consciousness one should also remember it is not static, but, as new information keeps coming in, subject to more or less dynamic changes. At the moment of formulation of intention of particular behavior the perpetrator usually knows far less about the surrounding than at the successive stages of its execution, which in many cases should affect criminal responsibility. To determine whether an agent committed a prohibited deed a reconstruction of his consciousness alone is not sufficient, since – moving now to the normative plane – one should assess it. Attribution of intent in both its forms, as well as conscious or unconscious lack of intent is not limited to reconstruction of the agent’s state of consciousness, but is performed based on normative criteria developed by lawyers. Conceivable intent and conscious lack of thereof (as well as the distinction between the two) have not been discovered by psychologists, but created by lawyers, having, amongst other issues, crime-fighting policies in mind.

Purpose/Thesis: Ihe aim of the paper is to provide an evaluative review of literature on the quantitative methods of bibliometric forecasting and assessing the current state of scientific discipline development. By "evaluative" review it is understood that the author discussed and pinpointed the drawbacks of the literature-proposed ways to assess and predict the development of scientific disciplines. Approach/Methods: Ihe method used by the author is the analysis of the literature concerning the problems under consideration. Ihe author also proposed a typology of methods applied in the bibliometric predictions area and emphasized the flaws of some previously used methods. Moreover, the possibilities of practical application of foresight exercises were shown. Finally, the conclusions were drawn, with regard to the methods oriented towards the assessment of the rate and direction of scientific disciplines development. Results and conclusions: First conclusion was that there was a great diversity within the sphere of quantitative methods concerning the subject of evolution forecasting for scientific disciplines. The methods in question often are applied without referring to each other. In other words, the majority of predictive methods are used in isolation. The flaws, occurring in many methods, usually have a negative influence on the results obtained. Next conclusion was that there was a significant potential in the statistical analysis of the time series. However, it seems that this potential has not been fully exploited yet. Furthermore, there is a considerable degree of interdisciplinarity in the scope of bibliometric predictive methods. Often, they are modified and adopted from other disciplines such as mathematics, computer science, statistics and econometrics. The last conclusion was that the predictive process was based either on purposefully designed citation analysis or solely on the number of disciplinary publications. In the first case the methodology must implicitly accept the theses of so-called normative paradigm, existing within the sociology of scientific knowledge and constituting an epistemological background for the methodology. In the latter case the methodology is engaged in the debate over topical relevance, which is observed within the frames of library and information science. Originality/Value: Ihe originality and value of the paper lies in an effort to demonstrate the scope and a high degree of progress of the studies on the possibilities of predicting and assessing the development of scientific disciplines worldwide. In Polish scientific environment such studies are relatively rare, and it seems that the review of the predictive bibliometric methodology could contribute to the stimulation of interest in the research directed towards the forecasting of future scientific trends. It is also important to stress the disadvantages of selected methods of bibliometric forecasting as in this context they create a substantial amount of space destined for possible improvements and modifications of existing methods. In the field of bibliometrics there is a considerable need for such refinements due to the fact that currently there is no perfect method which could be described as "the last word" on the technique of anticipating future research directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose/Thesis: The aim of the article is to provide an evaluative review of a literature on the quantitative methods of bibliometric forecasting and assessing the current state of scientific disciplines development. By "evaluative" review it is understood that the author discussed and pinpointed the drawbacks of the literature-proposed ways to assess and predict the development of scientific disciplines. Approach/Methods: The method used by the author is the analysis of the literature concerning the problems under consideration. The author also proposed a typology of methods applied in the bibliometric predictions area and emphasized the flaws of some previously used methods. Moreover, the possibilities of practical applications of foresight exercises were shown. Finally, the conclusions were drown with regard to the methods oriented towards the assessment of the rate and direction of scientific disciplines development. Results and conclusions: Taking into consideration the fact that this article is first part of a larger whole comprising the analysis of the literature in question, the conclusions drawn within the first part have only a tentative character. It was emphasized that the methods proposed in the trailblazing publications are still vital and fulfill a leading role in bibliometrics. Second, it was indicated that the drawbacks accompanying the majority of mentioned methods are an integral part of the evolution of the research mainstream which is being discussed. 'Third, it is necessary to note that there is a strong correlation between bibliometric predictive methods and an algorithmic means of clustering groups of publications into topic consistent subgroups. These subgroups are usually considered to represent disciplinary subspecialties or, in other words, disciplinary problem areas. Originality/Value: The originality and value of the article lie in an effort to demonstrate the scope and a high degree of progress of the studies on the possibilities of prediction and assessment of the development of scientific disciplines worldwide. In the Polish scientific environment such studies are relatively rare and it seems that the review of the predictive bibliometric methodology could contribute to the stimulation of interest in the research directed towards the forecasting of future scientific trends. It is also important to stress the disadvantages of particular methods of bibliometric forecasting as in this context they create a substantial amount of space destined for possible improvements and modifications of existing methods. In the field of bibliometrics there is a need for such refinements due to the fact that currently there is no ideal method which could be described as "the last word" on the technique of anticipating future research directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]