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The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of social capital on financial development in Iran. To do so, the statistical data were collected during 1984 to 2012 and vector error correction model was used. The number of annually judicial cases about returned checks and liquidity to real gross domestic product ratio were selected as proxies of social capital and financial development respectively. The results derived from Johansen cointegration test indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relation between social capital and financial development in Iran. Also vector error correction model estimates show that social capital has a positively significant impact on financial development in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach & cointegration analysis, this paper examines the impacts of anticipated and unanticipated shocks to official exchange rate on black market exchange rate premium in Iran for the period 1980:1 – 2001:1. Following Barro (1977), Hoffman et al. (1984) and Pozo and Wheeler (1999) a two-stage model is developed to study the long-run movement of black market premium. In the first stage, we construct a forecasting equation for the official exchange rate. The predicted values of official exchange rate obtained from this equation are used to measure the anticipated shocks. The residuals of the estimated forecasting model are used as a measure of unanticipated shock to official exchange rate. In the second stage, we regress the black market premium on anticipated and unanticipated shocks derived in the previous stage. The results indicate that both anticipated and unanticipated shocks to official exchange rate have a significant negative impact on the black market premium in Iran. It is found that an unanticipated increase in the official exchange rate has a greater impact on the black market premium than the anticipated one. Using dummy variable technique to study the possibility of structural break in the premium movement, the paper finds that the policy of exchange rate unification of 1993 has changed the intercept and the slope of the premium equation. This means that this policy has caused a structural change in the premium movement. More specifically, the intercept has decreased and the slope has increased dramatically after the unification. Indeed, the anticipated devaluation of official exchange rate has had a positive impact on the black market premium between 1993 and 1995. Finally, the cointegration tests verify the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among variables.

The government of Iran has faced with budget deficits during 1979 – 2010, which has been financed mainly through money creation. Theoretically, the impacts of budget deficit and inflationary tax on macroeconomy are very controversial, so that both decrease and increase in consumption, investment, net exports and total expenditure have been supported by empirical researches. Using structural cointegrating vector autoregressive, this paper investigates the impacts of inflationary finance on the demand side of Iran’s economy during mentioned period. Budget deficit is defined as the difference between operating budget deficit (minus net operating balance) and capital balance surplus, or net lending (net acquisition of nonfinancial assets). The results show that both operating budget deficit and net lending have positive impacts on consumption, investment and net imports in the short run. So changes in the demand side have not necessarily same orientation with increase or decrease in budget deficits, but the source of change in budget deficit determines its effects. Reducing budget deficits through positive shock to net lending and a policy of increasing operating budget deficit have similar effects. Furthermore, the results show that the operating budget deficit has no effect on demand components in the long run. The complementarity of inflationary tax and financial repression is confirmed in both short run and long run. In addition, the results indicate that an increase in operating budget deficit and/or net lending induce more inflationary tax and financial repression. Although the budget deficit has no effect on demand side in the long run, but its two outcomes -inflationary tax and financial repression- have opposite effects on the consumption, investment and net imports in both short run and long run.

One of the most controversial and relatively old subjects in economics is the optimal size of government and its impact on macroeconomic variables. Government size and extent of public enterprises are of crucial impacts on economy. Thus, one of the main objectives of the governments is to achieve full employment. This paper investigates the effects of government size on unemployment rate in Iran’s economy using annual data during 1959-2011. It applies Pesaran, Shin and Smith (PSS) bounds testing approach to estimate an Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM), which derives both dynamic and long-term relationships. The finding of the research shows that the government size has a significant positive effect on unemployment rate, indicating that reducing the size of government would lead to reduction of unemployment rate in Iran. With increases in size of government, the crowding out effect in the form of private investment is decreased. As a result, productivity growth and international competition are reduced, then the unemployment rate is increased. The estimation of the ECM model shows that the error term is negative and statistically significant. The Error Correction Term (ECT) is relatively low (-0.27) indicating a slow adjustment toward the equilibrium.

Recent developments in the econometric theory lead to presenting estimators which are appropriate for the small samples and time series with the convergence relation. Compared with other cointegration vector estimators, DOLS method used in small samples and prevents the creation of simultaneity bias. It has normal distribution and can include variable with different cointigration order in the estimation process. This paper reviews the characteristics of a panel dynamic ordinary least squares method employs it in the form of an econometric model of the effects of gray economy (corruption is proxy for gray economy) on the human development index in the 9 developing countries over the period 2002 to 2013. The results show that the impact of corruption index and inflation on the human development index is negative in the studied countries.

Due to importance of energy factor in agricultural sector and considering the increasing energy price in recent years, analysis of energy demand is very important. In this paper in order to analyse agricultural energy demand, OLS, FMOLS and Johansen cointegration method and ARDL approach has been used and results of these methods have been compared. Data on energy price index, energy consumption and agricultural value added for priod 1355-1388 were used. Results showed that long run and short run price elasticity of energy consumtion are between -0.3 to -0.327 and -0.09 to -0.102 respectively. Also income elasticity of energy consumption estimated egual to 0.7. Results of OLS estimation of Log-Log model, Johansen cointegration method and ARDL approach are very similar. Because of price inelasticity of energy consumption especially in the shortrun, price policies are not likely to reduce energy consumtion considerably. Price policies can be more effective in the longrun, but this is subject to improvemeats in the energy consumption technology.

In economic studies, fiscal decentralization theories are used to increase productivity and efficiency of government and to improve the balance between different regions and it is mentioned as one of the fundamental tools in the way of transition to a market economy in developing countries. After Islamic Revolution in Iran and especially after Iran-Iraq war, fiscal and economic decentralization was officially considered as a strategic policy for the development of Iran’s provinces. Firstly, the Provincial Planning Councils were founded and then the provincial revenue-expenditure system was devised to increase the degree of decentralization. But the main concern of economic planners was to investigate the mechanism of which the fiscal decentralization had an impact on economic growth and income distribution. In this paper, by using augmented Solow model, the direct and indirect effects of fiscal decentralization on economic growth is evaluated. After testing for the stationary of our panel of data, it is confirmed that there is a long-run relationship between variables of the model by using Pedroni and Kao tests. After estimating the model by using generalized least squares (GLS) method, it was shown that during the period of 1379-1386, fiscal decentralization (based on two measures of decentralization of national investment expenditures and decentralization of provincial investment expenditures) had a positive effect on economic growth and income distribution in provinces. This effect was in a way that one percent increase in fiscal decentralization would increase economic growth rate up to 0/04 percent. In addition, fiscal decentralization improve income distribution in provinces and indirectly affects economic growth of different regions.

Countries efforts to achieve rapid economic growth and lack of adequate attention to environmental issues in recent years have caused serious damage to the countries environment. Hence, examining factors affecting the quality of environment is more important. This article aims to investigate the Impact of economic growth, energy consumption and openness on Environment pollution in Iran from 1967-2007. This paper uses some econometric techniques, including Johansson approach and DOLS model to explore the influence of economic growth, energy consumption and openness on Environment quality. The result of the analysis reveals a positive sign for the coefficients of economic growth, energy consumption and openness. Also the findings does not support the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and invironmental pollution.

Studies in applied econometrics and related disciplines are widely using time series techniques. Sound application of these techniques requires the satisfaction of their underlying assumptions. One of these techniques is ARDL Model. There are a number of examples in the published works in Iranian economic studies which suffers from misconceptions leading to biased and inconsistent estimates of parameters. For example, without assuring the exogeniety of the other RHS variables of the model, estimates are biased and inconsistent. Although fitting an ARDL model to exogenous and/or predetermined RHS I(0) and/or I(1) variables may seem appropriate ,however ,to continue the path leading to the extraction cointegration vectors, would be a misleading strategy. The aim of this paper is to highlight these misconceptions in the application of ARDL technique. To this end, after a theoretical survey of the concept, a dynamic simultaneous equation model (DSEM) of macroeconomic equations is introduced and simulated. The simulated series are used to estimate various versions of the model including VAR, ARDL, DSEM, VECM . Then the correct and incorrect application of ARDL model is specified by using two scenarios.

Stock markets are strong means of attracting savings and directing them to investors، but their rate of returns are subject to fluctuations much higher than other economic variables. This paper is to examine of the volatility in the Tehran stock marketusing the conditional heteroscedasticity technique for the period 1370:0-1386:06. Based on the results obtained، (1) distribution of the return has positive skewness indicating that market players consider occurrence of negative returns more likely. (2) Return series is not normaly distributed and has more height than normal curve. (3) Calendar has no significant effect on return with the exception of second، fifth and ninth months of the year. (4) Weak Information efficiency is rejected. Thus، not all market factors transact professionally and، the information and the news affect stock price with a time delay. (5) Inflation has positive effect on returns fluctuations، but is not significant . (6) Exchange rate (Rials/$) has positive and significant but samll effect on return fluctuations. The small effect is probably due to the fact that there is only a little share of Dollar in shareholders portfolio. Finally، (7) Assumption of normal distribution for residuals is not suitable. In contrast، t and general error distributions if surplus kurtosis is considered are proper assumptionsGovernments can play have an important role in affecting the demand for planning and preparing the food these security through their protection policies such as providing subsidies. subsidizing the main or basic categories of food in the same time subsidies will increase the government expenditure،therefore، it is necessary to set goals carefully. However، as subsidies will increase government expenditure and will cost the economy، they should be targeted to people who need them the most. In this article، we estimate the demand for main or basic foods، (i.e.bread، meat، milk، oil and sugar) have been estimated by using AIDS Model and taking into account household budget survey data in urban areas and consumer price index through two stage model and cointegration for the periodyears 1363-1384. At every stage، estimation was done for both the short-run and the long-run and the homogenous constraint and symmetric have been examined by Wald test. As an instrument of analysis، We obtain price elasticity، income elasticity and cross price elasticity of demand have been calculated forin the short-run and the long-run. The results show that reducing subsidies on these goods would put a pressure on consumer expenditure through the rise in the prices. However، changes in the structurel of subsidies with a gradual reduction in the amount of subsidies for bread، oil and sugar and directing them payment toward meat and milk within a structured goal is recommended.will be more beneficial.

This paper investigates the determinants of private investment in Iran over the period of 1382-2004. First, the variables are tested for unit root and then the long run private investment equation is estimated using cointegration technique. The variables considered in the model include GDP, government investment, inflation, infrastructure and institutions such as rules and regulations, property rights, corruption and social Securities. The results indicate that GDP and infrastructure positively affect private investment while the institution factors such as rules and regulations, property rights, social securities and corruptions negatively affect private investment.

Iran plans to export natural gas (NG) to Western Europe using a system of pipelines running through Iran, Turkey, and Western Europe. International gas pricing is usually undertaken through negotiations between buyers and sellers on a bilateral basis. Currently, Russia is the only exporter of gas from the Former Soviet region. So, Russia competes strongly with Iran to export NG to Western Europe. This paper develops a bargaining model to study natural gas pricing and analyze competition between Iran and Russia as gas suppliers to Western Europe. In this model, it is assumed that NG pricing is usually linked to the prices of alternative fuels as competing energy sources. Therefore, in light of previous evidence, it is reasonable to consider that there is a long-run relationship between NG price and price of alternative fuels. Initially, a regression model is specified to investigate unlagged relationship among variables. This relationship is estimated using the Johansen cointegration technique and then we forecast margins of the Iranian NG price. Finally, a VECM model is identified and used to forecast the lower and upper bounds of future NG price.

This paper uses a quarterly data to study the effect of the main economic variables on the stock price index in Iran over the period 1993:3–2003:2. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis is used to study both short- and long-run movements of stock prices in Tehran stock market. The explanatory variables include money supply, production level of large manufacturing companies, and the ratio of domestic to foreign price level, exchange rate, oil price, gold coin price, and housing price index. The results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. According to our finding, the ratio of domestic to foreign price levels, the price of housing and the gold coin price index have positive impacts on the stock prices. Exchange rate and money supply have significant negative effects on the stock price index in Iran. However, we found that the production level of large manufacturing companies has not affected the stock price index. The result of our error correction model indicated that 54 percent of deviation of the stock price from its equilibrium path is corrected each period.

Revenues obtained through gas and oil sale compose a considerable and important part of the Iranian government revenue and the GDP. In this paper, after a brief review on oil sector and income resulting from its export, the authors study the literature pertaining to export instability and its impact on economic growth. Using moving average method with a five-year lag, they found a process for export divergence from which considered as a base for instability. They suggest five definitions for instability as follows: Divergence absolute value, square root of divergence, squared divergence, divergence absolute value for one unit of the estimated amount, and negative divergence. Instability is then considered as a variable in the traditional production function of Feder, which is estimated by ARDL model using five definitions of instability. The findings indicate that there is a negative relation between the first three different definitions of instability and economic growth. Regarding the fourth definition, there is no significant relation and cointegration among the variables is also doubtful. However, regarding the fifth definition, there is a positive and considerable relation between export instability and economic growth and it seems that the fifth definition is not a suitable method to define oil export instability.

The objective of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of adjustment to long-run purchasing power parity (PPP)in a nonlinear framework using the Iranian data over the period 1959-2000. Two PPP measures are considered and nonlinearity in the real exchange rates are investigated. First, the standard and modified unit root tests are applied and then, cointegration analysis is carried out, based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration methodology, rather than imposing the strict cointegating vector in calculating real exchange rate measures. Furthermore, the Smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) representation for the adjustment process towards PPP, which provides a superior alternative, are specified and estimated. It was found that purchasing power parity (PPP) holds in the long-run after accounting for structural breaks. Moreover, linearity was strongly rejected and the dynamic STAR models were specified and estimated by using nonlinear least squares. The strong evidence in favour of nonlinear behaviour for PPP suggests that the linear models are misspecified.

Financial markets are considered as a particular important capital market instruments an allocation of financial resources mobilization process. Considering the importance of strategic financial and economic market, when the disruption and diversion occur widely in it, mobilization and allocation of financial resources of the countries are faced with serious problems. One of the factors regenerator these issues is price bubble. Generally, when the price of a share is different from its future expected price, market bubble term is introduced. This paper explores validity of present value model with time – varying expectations, by use of newly developed Momentum Threshold Cointegration test, M-TAR, to investigate if there is any asymmetric adjustment in long-run prices and dividends in Tehran stock Exchange during 2000:M3 to 2008: M10? Empirical results indicate that long-run prices and dividends cointegration relationship doesn't hold for Tehran's stock exchange, which attests to the presence of rational bubbles.

There are many factors affecting economic growth. Based on the literature, the effects of these factors such as higher education are mainly examined using endogenous economic growth theories. Various theoretical models are used to estimate the relation among variables affecting economic growth. This paper investigates the effects of higher education human capital on the economic growth in Iran using the endogenous growth models. The specified model includes human capital, physical investment and foreign debt which are identified as the main determinants of economic growth in Iran. Two dummy variables are included in the model in order to represent the effects of Islamic revolution and imposed war. The Johnson five steps approach is employed to estimate the empirical model. The results confirm that higher education human capital has a relatively large and statistically significant effect on the economic growth in Iran. It is found that the growth elasticity of higher education human capital is larger than the growth impact of physical capital investment. So, in order to obtain a high rate of economic growth in the country, investment in higher education human capital must be increased. Moreover, based on the findings, it is recommended that the investment should be made using domestic saving instead of financing abroad.