1. 粒子フィルタを用いた河川水位の実時間予測手法の開発
- Author
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Jyunichi Sudo, Sunmin Kim, Yasuto Tachikawa, Michiharu Shiiba, and Kazuaki Yorozu
- Subjects
particle filter ,Meteorology ,Flood myth ,河川水位 ,Rating curve ,実時間予測 ,粒子フィルタ ,Wave model ,Data assimilation ,Typhoon ,Stage (hydrology) ,Boundary value problem ,river stage ,real-time forecasting ,データ同化 ,Particle filter ,data assimilation ,Geology ,Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Abstract
A real-time river stage forecasting method is developed, which is aimed to apply to river sections where a rating curve does not exist. The method uses a particle filter combined with the dynamic wave model. A number of the dynamic wave models (particles) which have different parameter values and boundary conditions run in parallel, a set of well behaved particles are selected in real time according to the observed river stage, and several hours-ahead river stages are predicted with their prediction error at each observation time step. The method is applied to the Katsura River for the flood of the typhoon No. 23 in 2004. The predicted river stage shows a good agreement with the observed one. The predicted maximum river stages along the study river section also well explain the flood marks., 水工学論文集第55巻
- Published
- 2011