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This article explores what ‘plausible’ means in statements about legal evidence and shows that it is highly ambiguous. Twelve different meanings of ‘plausibility’ are identified and distinguished from each other by definitions. Contrary to what has been claimed by some evidence scholars (Allen and Pardo, 2019), the article shows that all uses of ‘plausibility’ can be captured in terms of probability. The author also shows that the exposed ambiguity is deeply problematic for legal practice and legal scholarship. The fundamental principle of justice that ‘like cases should be treated alike’ is endangered when the standard of proof is expressed in an ambiguous way, and the scientific testability of hypotheses about legal fact-finding is undermined when these hypotheses are formulated in ambiguous terms.

The paper explores the argumentation from probability in Cicero’s speech Pro Roscio comoedo, concerning the financial litigation between a famous Roman actor Quintus Roscius and an unknown businessman Fannius Chaerea. The Roman rhetorician had analysed the question of probability in his earlier dissertation De inventione, which influenced his art of persuasion. Because of lack of the strong proofs the arguments from probability played a great role in the defence of Roscius. Cicero used different types of likelihood arguments: syllogistic argument from probability, credibilia, incredibilia, verisimilia, as well as the arguments from ethos and kedros. He seems to be here aware of the Greek theory of argumentation present in the writings of Aristotle and Rhetorica ad Alexandrum. The Roman orator recalled often the truth and juxtaposed it with the probability. Cicero employed likelihood proofs in his speech, both in argumentation and in refutation.

The rationalization of expectation, here considered as ‘hope’ regarding a possible future, has been declined not with the aim of eliminating uncertainty about the future (which is assumed as an immanent and ineliminable feature of the World) but as aimed at defining a rational behavior in deliberation in conditions of uncertainty. A ‘freely’ rational behavior, in that supported by coherent arguments. This coherency does ensure the success of the action chosen by the deliberating subject, but rather makes this action acceptable by the reference community in the light of its consequences.

Modern science was historically built by avoiding a direct treatment of cause-effect relationship questions. Recent developments in mathematical, probabilistic and statistical sciences make possible to pursue a more direct approach in cause-effect relationships leading to effective and systematic investigations in a wide range of scientific research fields.

This paper follows the already existing literature to address three main pressing concerns that Romania is currently facing with respect to sustainable development and economic growth, which has likely been impeded as a direct consequence of the ongoing sanitary crisis. The research questions of this paper were asked with the consideration of finding possible solutions to the current developments. These questions were “How will the global health crisis project on Romania’s GDP growth in 2021 and going forward?”, “To what extent can Romania face its current challenges with respect to the budgetary pressures?”. The research itself was conducted using the R programming language with quantitative data, namely quarterly GDP starting from 2005 Q1 onwards and its main objective is to simulate Romania’s GDP to answer the aforementioned questions. Therefore, this research is empirical in the sense that it derives the simulated data from real data which was taken from Eurostat. The main findings of this research were that Romania’s GDP could grow by a mean 3.2% in 2021, which is more conservative than the existing institutional forecasts made by the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the Romanian National Commission for Strategy and Forecasting, implying that the majority of the simulated outcomes have been in that respective range of values. Moreover, this research also finds that consumption is expected to increase by approximately 4.2% and that the budget deficit relative to GDP could go as low as to negative 7.8%. This paper creates value for future policymaking as it proposes solutions which could help Romania going forward. Thus, this paper creates value for not only the policymakers but the society as a whole.

Much has been written about the existence and formulation of different standards of proof, both in civil and criminal proceedings. However, one point on which it is worth deepening into is that of the normative anchor of those standards. The issue presents interesting and problematic trims while in the legislation the test standards are not always predetermined. The individualization and cognizability of the standard thus becomes a previous question on which it is necessary to reflect, before analyzing how a particular evidentiary standard is applied. The recognition of judicial standard before the jurisdictional decision favors legal certainty and allows the control of judicial decisions.

In «Naturalized Epistemology and the Law of Evidence Revisited», the original target article for the various refutations that I comment on here, I revisited through a slightly different lens the subject of the article that I coauthored with Brian Leiter close to twenty years ago. That article has prompted four responses from Professors Pardo, Spellman, Muffato, and Enoch. Professors Pardo and Spellman basically accept the implications of the original article and offer useful but friendly amendments. Prof. Muffato apparently does not want to dispute over my ground and so changes the subject, and in doing so offers a number of interesting points. Only the fourth, Prof. Enoch, has the same doubts about the utility of my original article as I do of the genre that gave rise to it. I can thus be quite brief in discussing professors Pardo, Spellman, and Muffato, but it will take bit more effort to lay out the limits of Prof. Enoch’s analysis.

In real life we have to deal with uncertainty, imprecision and vagueness. Many ideas were introduced and studied in detail to manage with these problems. Now we briefly expose the main formal concepts which describe non-ideal situations, i.e. Probability, Statistics and Fuzzy Logic. Probability has recent origins with respect to other branches of mathematics which have deep roots in the past, like geometry or algebra.We may say all this started with Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré (1607–1684), who asked Blaise Pascal (1623–1662) about gambling with dice. The correspondence between Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal, which began in 1654, initially on these questions, led to the introduction of basic concepts, i.e. probability and expectation. Only in 1657, Christian Huygens in "De Ratiociniis in ludo aleae" proposed a first systematic study of the new branch of mathematics. However, the need of an axiomatic construction of the theory of probability arose to analyze more general and complex situations than gambling. A strong formalization was supplied by the monograph "Foundations of the theory of probability" (1933) by Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov.Statistics represent the most popular application of probability theory, providing research tools in several areas, including physical and natural sciences, technology, psychology, economics and medicine. Statistics are the bridge that connects experimental data to the mathematical theory behind itself.Fuzzy logic, sometime confused with probability, wants to express and formalize all the sentences which are not true or false at all; the philosophical idea is that "everything is a matter of degree" (Zadeh). La logica della probabilità: un viaggio attraverso l’incertezza Nella vita reale ci si trova di fronte a molte situazioni caratterizzate da incertezza, imprecisione, vaghezza. Sono state introdotte diverse modellizzazioni per il trattamento di tali concetti e problemi. Ci proponiamo di esporre sinteticamente alcuni lineamenti fondamentali di Probabilità, Statistica e Fuzzy Logic.La probabilità ha origini recenti rispetto alle altre branche della matematica che hanno profonde radici nel passato, come la geometria o l’algebra.Possiamo dire che un passaggio iniziale importante si è avuto con Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré (1607-1684), che pose a Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) una questione riguardante il gioco dei dadi. La corrispondenza tra Pierre de Fermat e Blaise Pascal, che ha avuto inizio nel 1654, su questioni simili, ha portato all'introduzione di concetti di base, come probabilità e aspettativa. Successivamente Christian Huygens, in "De ludo Ratiociniis in aleae", ha proposto un primo studio sistematico della nuova branca della matematica. Tuttavia, la necessità di una costruzione assiomatica della teoria della probabilità sorse per l’esigenza di analizzare situazioni più generali e complesse rispetto al gioco d'azzardo. Una forte formalizzazione è stata fornita dalla monografia "Fondamenti della teoria della probabilità" (1933) di Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov.La statistica rappresenta l'applicazione più popolare della teoria della probabilità, fornendo strumenti di ricerca in diversi settori, tra cui le scienze fisiche e naturali, la tecnologia, la psicologia, l'economia e la medicina. In un certo senso essa rappresenta il ponte che collega i dati sperimentali con la teoria matematica.La Logica Fuzzy, da non confondere con la probabilità, si occupa del trattamento formale delle proposizioni di cui non si può affermare senza ambiguità che siano vere o false; l'idea filosofica è che "tutto è una questione di gradualità" (Zadeh). Parole Chiave: Incertezza, Probabilità, Statistica, Fuzzy

In this paper I discuss the distribution of grammatical monosyllables in the iambic pentameter line. I show that in Milton's Paradise Lost, the word OF appears with greater than expected frequency at the beginning of the line; 27% of all instances of OF are in the first of the ten metrical positions, and 5% of all the lines begin with OF, making it the most frequent line-initial word. I suggest that this might reflect the way that Milton uses enjambment in the poem. It also means that OF may function as a clue to the beginning of the line, in the context of other evidence for lineation, essential if the audience is to establish the metrical form of the poem. In constrast, in the eighteenth century blank verse long poems of Thomson and Cowper, the word AND is relatively frequent at the beginning of the line. But Wordsworth uses both OF and AND as frequent line-initial words,(merging Milton's formal practice with the practice of other writers. The paper concludes by reflecting on the relation between statistical characteristics of text and probabilistic aspects of our knowledge of literary form.

Many authors have hoped to understand the indicative conditional construction in everyday language by means of what are usually called conditional probabilities. Other authors have hoped to make sense of conditional probabilities in terms of the absolute probabilities of conditional statements. Although all such hopes were disappointed by the triviality theorems of Lewis (1976), there have been copious subsequent attempts both to rescue CCCP (the conditional construal of conditional probability) and to extend and to intensify the arguments against it. In this paper it will be shown that triviality is avoidable if the probability function is replaced by an alternative generalization of the deducibility relation, the measure of deductive dependence of Miller and Popper (1986). It will be suggested further that this alternative way of orchestrating conditionals is nicely in harmony with the test proposed in Ramsey (1931), and also with the idea that it is not the truth value of a conditional statement that is of primary concern but its assertability or acceptability.

In probability and statistics courses, a popular method for the evaluation of the students is to assess them using multiple choice tests. The use of these tests allows to evaluate certain types of skills such as fast response, short-term memory, mental clarity and ability to compete. In our opinion, the verification through testing can certainly be useful for the analysis of certain aspects, and to speed up the process of assessment, but we should be aware of the limitations of such a standardized procedure and then exclude that the assessments of pupils, classes and schools can be reduced to processing of test results. To prove this thesis, this article argues in detail the main test limits, presents some recent models which have been proposed in the literature and suggests some alternative valuation methods. Quesiti e test di Probabilità e Statistica: un'analisi critica Nei corsi di Probabilità e Statistica, un metodo molto diffuso per la valutazione degli studenti consiste nel sottoporli a quiz a risposta multipla. L'uso di questi test permette di valutare alcuni tipi di abilità come la rapidità di risposta, la memoria a breve termine, la lucidità mentale e l'attitudine a gareggiare. A nostro parere, la verifica attraverso i test può essere sicuramente utile per l'analisi di alcuni aspetti e per velocizzare il percorso di valutazione ma si deve essere consapevoli dei limiti di una tale procedura standardizzata e quindi escludere che le valutazioni di alunni, classi e scuole possano essere ridotte a elaborazioni di risultati di test. A dimostrazione di questa tesi, questo articolo argomenta in dettaglio i limiti principali dei test, presenta alcuni recenti modelli proposti in letteratura e propone alcuni metodi di valutazione alternativi. Parole Chiave: item responce theory, valutazione, test, probabilità

While tobacco became more and more popular, there were always voices against it being considered immoral and harmful. However the intent of restraining his using has only made it more valuable and encouraged smuggling. Smoking is a risk factor for excitement state at young infants. Being a subject of actuality and of national interest, the authors have performed a study among the citizens of Bucharest, in order to sketch of the typical smoker profile. Smoking teenagers have to seek for medical care more often than non-smokers. As a final conclusion of this study we have to mention the fact that through a better campaign against smoking, sustained by the authorities, the number of smokers and smoking harmful effects could be significantly reduced.

Apresenta-se a interpretação oferecida por Bayle do ceticismo antigo: suas características, sua origem e a distinção entre pirrônicos e acadêmicos. Em seguida, discutem-se alguns aspectos importantes do ceticismo: sua concepção de ciência, sua conduta na vida prática e sua atitude em face da religião.The topic of this paper is Bayle´s interpretation of ancient scepticism: its characteristics, its origin and the distinction between pyrrhonism and academic scepticism. Some important aspects of scepticism are also discussed: its conception of science, its conduct in practical life and its attitude concerning religion.

Breast milk has always been the best source of nourishment for newborns. However, breast milk can carry a risk of infection, as it can be contaminated with bacterial or viral pathogens. This paper reviews the risk of acquisition of varicella-zoster virus (VZV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV), herpesviruses frequently detected in breastfeeding mothers, via breast milk, focusing on the clinical consequences of this transmission and the possible strategies for preventing it. Maternal VZV infections are conditions during which breastfeeding may be temporarily contraindicated, but expressed breast milk should always be given to the infant. CMV infection acquired through breast milk rarely causes disease in healthy term newborns; an increased risk of CMV disease has been documented in preterm infants. However, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) does not regard maternal CMV seropositivity as a contraindication to breastfeeding; according to the AAP, in newborns weighing less than 1500 g, the decision should be taken after weighing the benefits of breast milk against the risk of transmission of infection. The real efficacy of the different methods of inactivating CMV in breast milk should be compared in controlled clinical trials, rigorously examining the negative consequences that each of these methods can have on the immunological and nutritional properties of the milk itself, with a view to establish the best risk-benefit ratio of these strategies before they are recommended for use in clinical practice.

In this article it is reported a historical-philosophical "excursus" on the schools of thought followed by science in order to provide the highest degree of truth to the knowledge of natural reality.

Effective drug therapies are available for a wide range of chronic medical conditions but adherence to medications is currently low with poor health outcomes. Evidences support that drug nonadherence is a universal problem more than a disease- and drug-specific problem. Although several methods have been proposed for the assessment of adherence, accurate measurement continues to be difficult and most studies produced inconsistent results on determinants of nonadherence. Osteoporosis is a chronic, asymptomatic illness before fracture, and poor adherence with antiresorptive medications is a significant problem in preventing its adverse consequences. Currently approved therapies for osteoporosis are effective and lower fracture risk, but about 50% of patients discontinues treatment within 12 months of initiation. Poor adherence has been associated with increased fracture risk and increased resource use and hospitalization. Causes of nonadherence to osteoporosis therapies are unknown. Some variables predictive of nonadherence have been found (older age, comorbidity, previous fractures, bone mineral density assessment, number of medications, institutionalisation) but explain only a small proportion of the variability of adherence. Patients may fail to remain on their medication for reasons that include inconvenience or complexity of dosing, high cost, side effects and lack of appreciation of the benefits of therapy. Potential solutions of poor adherence of osteoporosis may include a close monitoring of persistence and compliance, an improved relationship between physician and patient, and newer medications with extended dosing intervals.