1. Europäische Erdgasversorgung trotz politischer Krisen sicher
- Author
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Hella Engerer, Franziska Holz, Philipp M. Richter, Christian von Hirschhausen, and Claudia Kemfert
- Subjects
modeling ,jel:L95 ,Q34 ,natural gas ,Europe ,supply security ,Volkswirtschaftslehre ,ddc:330 ,C6 ,jel:Q34 ,L95 ,jel:C6 ,Natural gas, supply security, Europe, modeling - Abstract
Natural gas makes a major contribution to European energy supply. Consequently, the political crisis between Russia and Ukraine increases fears of the consequences of Russia suspending natural gas supplies to Ukraine and the European Union. The last time this occurred was in the winter of 2009, as Russia and Ukraine disputed the price of natural gas and transit costs. However, the European Union has subsequently increased the security of its gas supply. Measures proposed by the European Commission are becoming more and more successful, particularly the diversification of sources of supply and an accompanying expansion of natural gas infrastructure to secure supply from third-party countries. Opportunities to ease temporary supply bottlenecks have improved significantly within the Community in recent years. Nevertheless, Russia remains a major supplier of natural gas to the EU. The Russian gas corporation Gazprom is gaining importance in Eastern Europe, and increasingly also in Germany. However, this dependency is not a one-way street: Russia generates high export revenues from its natural gas trade. It currently has few alternatives to exporting to the EU. Model calculations by DIW Berlin show that Europe can cope with any supply disruption by Russia via Ukraine. Some Eastern European countries, however, suffer most from a complete supply stop by Russia. To further increase supply security to Europe in the medium term, it will be necessary to continue diversifying gas supplies, especially by making more efficient use of existing infrastructure, and expanding its pipelines and its capacity to import liquefied natural gas. Additionally, Europe should consider building up strategic gas reserves. It also seems advisable to continue to improve energy efficiency in all areas and consistently expand renewable energies as part of its energy and climate strategy. Erdgas leistet einen wichtigen Beitrag zur europäischen Energieversorgung. Umso mehr schürt die politische Krise zwischen Russland und der Ukraine die Angst vor den Folgen eines möglichen russischen Lieferstopps von Erdgas in die Ukraine und die Europäische Union. Zu einem solchen Ereignis kam es zuletzt im Winter 2009, als sich Russland und die Ukraine über den Erdgaspreis und die Transitgebühren stritten. Seither hat die Europäische Union die Sicherheit ihrer Erdgasversorgung jedoch erhöht. Die Umsetzung der von der Europäischen Kommission vorgeschlagenen Maßnahmen, insbesondere die Diversifizierung der Bezugsquellen und der damit verbundene Ausbau der Erdgasinfrastruktur zur Belieferung aus Drittländern, ist vorangekommen. Die Möglichkeiten, temporäre Versorgungsengpässe zu überbrücken, haben sich in den vergangenen Jahren auch innerhalb der Gemeinschaft deutlich verbessert. Dennoch bleibt Russland ein wichtiger Erdgaslieferant der EU. Der russische Erdgaskonzern Gazprom spielt in Osteuropa und zunehmend auch in Deutschland eine wichtige Rolle. Gleichwohl gibt es keine einseitige Abhängigkeit Europas: Russland erzielt hohe Exporteinnahmen aus dem Handel mit Erdgas und besitzt derzeit nur wenige Alternativen zum Export in die EU. Modellrechnungen des DIW Berlin zeigen, dass Europa eine mögliche Lieferunterbrechung Russlands durch die Ukraine weitestgehend kompensieren kann. Einen kompletten Lieferstopp Russlands könnten einige osteuropäische Länder dagegen nur bedingt ausgleichen. Um die Versorgungssicherheit in Europa mittelfristig weiter zu erhöhen, ist es notwendig, die Diversifizierung des Erdgasbezugs weiter fortzusetzen, insbesondere über eine effizientere Nutzung der bestehenden Infrastruktur sowie einen Ausbau der Importkapazitäten für verflüssigtes Erdgas und der Pipelines. Auch sollte eine strategische Gasreserve in Betracht gezogen werden. Wichtig ist zudem, die Energieeffizienz in allen Bereichen weiter zu verbessern und erneuerbare Energien im Zuge der europäischen Energie- und Klimastrategie weiterhin konsequent auszubauen. -- -- Natural gas makes a major contribution to European energy supply. Consequently, the political crisis between Russia and Ukraine increases fears of the consequences of Russia suspending natural gas supplies to Ukraine and the European Union. The last time this occurred was in the winter of 2009, as Russia and Ukraine disputed the price of natural gas and transit costs. However, the European Union has subsequently increased the security of its gas supply. Measures proposed by the European Commission are becoming more and more successful, particularly the diversification of sources of supply and an accompanying expansion of natural gas infrastructure to secure supply from third-party countries. Opportunities to ease temporary supply bottlenecks have improved significantly within the Community in recent years. Nevertheless, Russia remains a major supplier of natural gas to the EU. The Russian gas corporation Gazprom is gaining importance in Eastern Europe, and increasingly also in Germany. However, this dependency is not a one-way street: Russia generates high export revenues from its natural gas trade. It currently has few alternatives to exporting to the EU. Model calculations by DIW Berlin show that Europe can cope with any supply disruption by Russia via Ukraine. Some Eastern European countries, however, suffer most from a complete supply stop by Russia. To further increase supply security to Europe in the medium term, it will be necessary to continue diversifying gas supplies, especially by making more efficient use of existing infrastructure, and expanding its pipelines and its capacity to import liquefied natural gas. Additionally, Europe should consider building up strategic gas reserves. It also seems advisable to continue to improve energy efficiency in all areas and consistently expand renewable energies as part of its energy and climate strategy.
- Published
- 2014