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Regional consequences of demographic change in Germany, the future ageing and the shrinking of the population, strongly depend on the development of internal migration. Based on current trends, it cannot be predicted how this will change under conditions of aging and population shrinking. Though they only reach until the 2030s, recent model calculations indicate that competition between places of residence will increase and that regional disparities of population development will further intensify in the future. Based on forward projections of previous trends, these model calculations tend to present the long-term population development in suburban and rural regions—which have in parts strongly benefited from internal migration—rather too positively. The model calculation presented in this study is based on the assumption, that for differentiating population growth by internal migration, there have been other patterns in the past than this will be the case for the future, in which the population will decline in total. Based on a concentration of an expected long-term decline of the population in less attractive, structurally weak regions the model calculation shows, that beyond 2030 even such rural and suburban regions will experience a substantial population decline which still have, according to current trends, comparatively positive perspectives.

Projections of rapid demographic aging in Austria are reviewed up to the year 2050. "After the turn of the century the proportion of the population above age 60 will gradually increase from 20% to at least 30 if not as much as 40 or 50% by 2050. During the same period the population above age 80 will be multiplied by four." It is argued that drastic pension reform is needed to guarantee future pension payments and avoid a large increase in the pension contribution rate. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE), (excerpt)

"In this paper we illustrated future migration of labor within the old and new 'Lander' of unified Germany.... Our setting was a microbased general equilibrium model. It was shown that the diverging economic conditions within reunified Germany heavily distort the choice of location of German workers. If the transfer of capital and technology does not equalize the large discrepancies rapidly, net migration of eastern workers into the west of close to 12 percent of the eastern work force by 1993, and 16 percent by 1995, is to be expected." (SUMMARY IN ENG), (excerpt)

"The aim of this paper is to provide a survey of the previous and possible future global effects of net immigration on economic growth and the labor market from a macroeconomic point of view....First, some fundamentals relating to the expected economic effects of migration are briefly examined. There follows--in the first main section--a retrospective view of the development of economy and immigration in...[Germany] based on a statistical comparison and existing simulations with macroeconomic models. In the second main section the effects of further migration are discussed on the basis of population and labor market projections." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE AND RUS), (excerpt)

"Using model calculations to the year 2050, this paper shows the decisive role that assumptions on future (net) migration to Germany will play in the long-term development of the labor force potential. The particular focus of this paper is to point out the importance of (net) migration not only in terms of absolute figures, but more importantly in terms of the age and gender structure. The annual net migration of 500,000 or 250,000 persons leads, depending on the assumption of its age structure, to extreme differences in the long-term development of the labor force potential." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE AND RUS), (excerpt)

"The consequences of international immigration on population development and the labour market [in Austria] are assessed on the basis of four scenarios of possible political and economic developments in Europe. In case of massive immigration (net +50,000 per year) the residential population of Austria...will grow to 9.5 million within 40 years.... With a net immigration of +25,000 persons per year the residential population will grow to 8.3 inhabitants.... Without any immigration or with immigration and emigration of equal proportion, the population of Austria will shrink to somewhat above 7.1 million...." (SUMMARY IN ENG), (excerpt)

"Although there exists a reasonable number of methods for projecting the number of private households, only a few of them are used in practice. The reason for this discrepancy is...analysed. All important methods which had been developed until now will be presented, focusing on their assumptions and the data needed." (SUMMARY IN ENG), (excerpt)

"In 1989/90 the world's population was approximately 5.2 billions. According to U.N.-projections (medium variant) every 10 to 11 years this figure will grow by one billion, corresponding to an increase of 100 [million] people per year.... This article discusses the causes for the population growth and the impact on the settlement system, the food-situation, the ecological system, and the development process in the Third World." (SUMMARY IN ENG), (excerpt)

"This research note develops a multi-state population projection model in which inter-marriage between the states and the following uncertainty about the state of the children plays a major role. Since only 5% of the Austrian population belong to the Evangelical Church, but more than 80% of their members marry partners not belonging to the church, the question of the percentage of children from mixed marriages that become church members turns out to be vital for the future size and age composition of the church." Five different scenarios to the year 2030 are examined. (SUMMARY IN ENG), (excerpt)

Under the condition that current demographic conditions and the legislation of the old-age insurance will stay as they are now it is to calculate on a higher ratio of pensioners to work in the year 2030. The resulting financing requirements are neither only to be solved by appropriately high old-age insurance contributions nor by a reduction of the pensions level. Some measures for a relief of these problems are discussed with their advantages and disadvantages to economic growth and income distribution. But since measures partly need a decision in 20-40 years only, it is to be required for the moment that no steps are taken now which make the financing requirements more difficult at that time.