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Abstract Background Metabolic disturbances adversely impact productive and reproductive performance of dairy cattle due to changes in endocrine status and immune function, which increase the risk of disease. This may occur in the post-partum phase, but also throughout lactation, with sub-clinical symptoms. Recently, increased attention has been directed towards improved health and resilience in dairy cattle, and genomic selection (GS) could be a helpful tool for selecting animals that are more resilient to metabolic disturbances throughout lactation. Hence, we evaluated the genomic prediction of serum biomarkers levels for metabolic distress in 1353 Holsteins genotyped with the 100K single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) chip assay. The GS was evaluated using parametric models best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP), Bayesian B (BayesB), elastic net (ENET), and nonparametric models, gradient boosting machine (GBM) and stacking ensemble (Stack), which combines ENET and GBM approaches. Results The results show that the Stack approach outperformed other methods with a relative difference (RD), calculated as an increment in prediction accuracy, of approximately 18.0% compared to GBLUP, 12.6% compared to BayesB, 8.7% compared to ENET, and 4.4% compared to GBM. The highest RD in prediction accuracy between other models with respect to GBLUP was observed for haptoglobin (hapto) from 17.7% for BayesB to 41.2% for Stack; for Zn from 9.8% (BayesB) to 29.3% (Stack); for ceruloplasmin (CuCp) from 9.3% (BayesB) to 27.9% (Stack); for ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) from 8.0% (BayesB) to 40.0% (Stack); and for total protein (PROTt) from 5.7% (BayesB) to 22.9% (Stack). Using a subset of top SNPs (1.5k) selected from the GBM approach improved the accuracy for GBLUP from 1.8 to 76.5%. However, for the other models reductions in prediction accuracy of 4.8% for ENET (average of 10 traits), 5.9% for GBM (average of 21 traits), and 6.6% for Stack (average of 16 traits) were observed. Conclusions Our results indicate that the Stack approach was more accurate in predicting metabolic disturbances than GBLUP, BayesB, ENET, and GBM and seemed to be competitive for predicting complex phenotypes with various degrees of mode of inheritance, i.e. additive and non-additive effects. Selecting markers based on GBM improved accuracy of GBLUP.

Abstract Background Blood metabolic profiles can be used to assess metabolic disorders and to evaluate the health status of dairy cows. Given that these analyses are time-consuming, expensive, and stressful for the cows, there has been increased interest in Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy of milk samples as a rapid, cost-effective alternative for predicting metabolic disturbances. The integration of FTIR data with other layers of information such as genomic and on-farm data (days in milk (DIM) and parity) has been proposed to further enhance the predictive ability of statistical methods. Here, we developed a phenotype prediction approach for a panel of blood metabolites based on a combination of milk FTIR data, on-farm data, and genomic information recorded on 1150 Holstein cows, using BayesB and gradient boosting machine (GBM) models, with tenfold, batch-out and herd-out cross-validation (CV) scenarios. Results The predictive ability of these approaches was measured by the coefficient of determination (R2). The results show that, compared to the model that includes only FTIR data, integration of both on-farm (DIM and parity) and genomic information with FTIR data improves the R2 for blood metabolites across the three CV scenarios, especially with the herd-out CV: R2 values ranged from 5.9 to 17.8% for BayesB, from 8.2 to 16.9% for GBM with the tenfold random CV, from 3.8 to 13.5% for BayesB and from 8.6 to 17.5% for GBM with the batch-out CV, and from 8.4 to 23.0% for BayesB and from 8.1 to 23.8% for GBM with the herd-out CV. Overall, with the model that includes the three sources of data, GBM was more accurate than BayesB with accuracies across the CV scenarios increasing by 7.1% for energy-related metabolites, 10.7% for liver function/hepatic damage, 9.6% for oxidative stress, 6.1% for inflammation/innate immunity, and 11.4% for mineral indicators. Conclusions Our results show that, compared to using only milk FTIR data, a model integrating milk FTIR spectra with on-farm and genomic information improves the prediction of blood metabolic traits in Holstein cattle and that GBM is more accurate in predicting blood metabolites than BayesB, especially for the batch-out CV and herd-out CV scenarios.