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In this study, the real economic activity and monetary policy in the US are examined in comparison with the foreign trade balance and exchange rates, using Qual VAR and nonlinear VAR models. We found that the foreign trade with Brazil, Canada and Mexico do not lead to a possible recession in the US. The value of the domestic currency of Brazil, Canada and Mexico against the US dollar does not contribute to a possible recession over the foreign exchange market. We also show that a contraction in the US economy and contractionary monetary policy will lead to the appreciation of the US dollar by leading to capital inflows. Although the shadow interest rate may have asymmetric effects on the foreign trade balance with Canada and USD/CAD, we find that the foreign trade balance with Mexico and USD/MXN will be affected positively/negatively by an increase/decrease in the shadow interest rate.

One of the most fundamental economic problems of developing countries is unemployment. Countries are producing and implementing different economic policies in order to overcome this fundamental problem. Even if the policies that countries implement in the struggle against unemployment are different from each other, there is a single goal that is to increase employment and reduce unemployment. Dış ticaretteki gelişmelerin istihdamı artıracağı yönünde teoride bir beklenti vardır. In this study, In Karabük province, the effect of employment on foreign trade developments of 2006: 1-2017: 12 period has been examined. The econometric analysis in the study was done using the VAR technique in the Greatl program. The main aim of the study is; To analyze the effects of the changes in exports and imports in the period of 2006: 1-2017: 12 in the Karabük province, which is employment in the same period.

Active trade balance was one of the most important factors of financial policy of the Kingdom of Serbs Croats and Slovenes. It was supposed to contribute to the stability of the domestic currency. This intention could not be achived until 1924 since the recovery of the economy of the Kingdom from the great casualties and material hardship in the First World War. In following years, the foreign trade balance was active, except in exceptional drought years of 1927 and 1928. The main items of export were agricultural products alongside with raw materials and semi-finished products. On the other hand, the main items of imports were manufactured goods, materials for the textile industry, different machinery and tools. Great importance for the import into the Kingdom of SHS were on its neighbours. In 1929 they accounted around 38.2% of import, while as the destination of the Yugoslav exports were absolutely dominant with 69.16%. The discrepancy between foreign trade and foreign policy of the Kingdom of SHS was obvious. Although the main Yugoslav ally at the time, France has participated in trade with only a few percent. It was similar practice with another Great War ally: Great Britain. Wider economic relations with Czechoslovakia were hindered by lack of Czech interest to purchase goods from the Kingdom of SHS. On the other hand, the most important partners were Italy, which showed huge belligerence against new Yugoslavian state, and have a strained political relations with Kingdom of SHS throughout the 1920s and Austria and Germany, both bitter enemies form the First World War.