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In the Arctic, rabies is endemic in the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), posing a significant and ongoing health risk for people and domestic animals. The mechanisms by which rabies is maintained within the low-density fox populations in the Arctic remain unclear. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit individual-based stochastic epidemiological model and performed an uncertainty analysis to better understand Arctic fox rabies dynamics. Rabies persisted in 25.68% of model simulations, with several variables having significant impact on rabies persistence: probability of rabies transmission, spatial and temporal distribution food resources, mean litter size and variability of rabies incubation periods. Where rabies is endemic, we identified 5 key parameters for rabies dynamics: spatiotemporal resource distribution, probability of birth for adult females, mean and standard deviation of litter size, and incubation period of rabies. Our study demonstrates that Arctic rabies can persist in its primary host under conditions consistent with existing empirical data in the literature and showed the important role played by the spatial and temporal distribution of resources. Finally, our results suggest that the ecological impacts of rapid climate warming could decrease the overall persistence of rabies in the Arctic and the associated health risk in Arctic communities.

In the Arctic tundra, climate-induced emergence of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes (Linnaeus, 1758)), a competitor to the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus (Linnaeus, 1758)), is predicted to influence predation patterns of both fox mesopredators. In this study, we (i) identified predator species from scats through an established barcoding approach and (ii) explored the use of a cheap, quick barcoding method of fox feces (n = 103). We investigated differences in diet between the red fox (predicted generalist predator) and Arctic fox (predicted specialist predator) over 2 years with varying prey abundance. We amplified short DNA fragments (

Climate change increases the risk of severe alterations to essential wildlife habitats. The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus (Linnaeus, 1758)) uses dens as shelters against cold temperatures and predators. These dens, needed for successful reproduction, are generally dug into the active layer on top of permafrost and reused across multiple generations. We assessed the vulnerability of Arctic fox dens to the increasing frequency of geohazards (thaw settlement, mass movements, and thermal erosion) that is arising from climate change. On Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada) we developed, and calculated from field observations, a qualitative vulnerability index to geohazards for Arctic fox dens. Of the 106 dens studied, 14% were classified as highly vulnerable, whereas 17% and 69% had a moderate and low vulnerability, respectively. Vulnerability was not related to the probability of use for reproduction. Although climate change will likely impact Arctic fox reproductive dens, such impact is not a major threat to foxes of Bylot Island. Our research provides the first insights into the climate-related geohazards potentially affecting Arctic fox ecology in the next decades. The developed method is flexible and could be applied to other locations or other species that complete their life cycle in permafrost regions.