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This study was aimed to determine the anthropogenic and natural factors affecting hydrological regime of rivers, reliability and safety of hydroelectric facilities. The work of the Uchkurgan hydroelectric complex before and after the commissioning of the Toktogul reservoir with a hydroelectric power station is considered. The observations were conducted over a period of 92 years. A significant decrease in the unevenness of the average long-term water flow has been established for various periods. A homogeneity graph was built, which showed the periods of influence of anthropogenic factors in 1975 and 1990. The following scenarios for determining the maximum water discharges were considered: local water consumption regime, commissioning of the Toktogul reservoir, and energy mode. The estimated verification flow of 0.01% security satisfies the design capacity of the hydroelectric complex of 2720 m3/s..