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Despite the importance of financial development-international trade nexus and its implication for growth, studies have yet to look at the impact of new financial development indicators developed by the International Monetary Fund on international trade performance in Nigeria. This is one of the few attempts made to examine the elasticity of trade to financial development, given the inconclusive findings that permeate the literature. Therefore, this paper investigates the effect of financial development on aggregate trade performance in Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2021. The empirical framework is based on the ARDL approach to cointegration and error correction model. The findings revealed that (i) The ARDL bound test revealed the existence of a long-run equilibrium association between the variables; (ii) We find that a unit improvement in financial development induces a 1.1%-1.2% increase in trade performance in the short-run short term and a 9.7% in the long-run; (iii) The results show that a 1% increase in the exchange rate (depreciation) leads to a 0.01% improvement in trade performance in the short-term. The findings have important policy implications. The paper concludes that financial development contributes to trade performance.

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Copyright of Études Caribéennes is the property of Etudes Caribeennes and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper, we will present the results of our survey on TFP and its main drivers. For this purpose, our analysis is based on a sample of thirteen EU countries for the period 1995 - 2016. In the first iteration, we have estimated the TFP for selected countries. The main goal of this paper is to determine the existence of a long-run relationship, ie. cointegration between the TFP and its main drivers. To do so, in the second iteration we have used the relatively new panel ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model proposed by Pesaran (1997) and Pesaran and Shin (1999). The obtained results in this paper reveal the existence of a long-term relationship, i.e. co-integration between the TFP on one hand, and R&D, and ICT, on the other hand, confirming the basic hypothesis that there is a long-term and statistically significant relationship, i.e. co-integration between the above-mentioned variables.

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) represents a fundamental concept in exchange rate modeling. The main idea is given by equality between prices in two different countries when expressing in the same currency.This paper aims to analyze the behavior of real exchange rate between EURO and Romanian new leu (RON) under PPP paradigm. We use the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron stationarity tests in order to check real exchange deviations from PPP. Also, we investigate the existence of a connection between long-term between nominal exchange rate and industrial producer price indices from Romania and euro area. The main conclusions of this research highlight that PPP doesn’t holds; real exchange rate stationarity tests doest not confirm the stationarity, thus between the aforementioned three variables it doesn’t exists any equilibrium relation.

The objective of this paper is to determine the factors affecting the level of insurance using different models and econometric techniques on data for the period 1974- 2011. The results of the MCO indicate that the real density depends positively on real GDP per capita, the liquidity ratio and the life expectancy and negatively on the level of study. The test of Granger causality does not indicate a causal relationship between the real density and real GDP per capita. The application of the VECM indicates the presence of long and short-term relationship between actual density and GDP per capita. premiums, in Algeria, and especially to analyze the causal relationship between the insurance sector and economic growth, [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using recent techniques for estimating cointegration panel data, this paper extends the analysis of Coe and Helpmen (1995) by including institutional variables such as the ease of doing business, legal origins, and religious majority to see if these variables have an impact on the R&D spillovers and affect the total factor productivity (TFP). However, it seems, as a result of these estimates, the variables of institutional quality are important factors that affect long-run the degree of externalities of R&D and, therefore, TFP countries developing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of VSE - Vie & Sciences Economiques / La revue de l'Economie et de l'Entreprise is the property of ANDESE and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The objective of this study is to examine the impact of the fiscal structure on the economic development in Morocco during period 1980-2012. To do it, we structured our article around three axes. The first axis will be on a brief review of empirical and theoretical literature on the tax system and the economic growth. The second axis is going to allow us to redraw the evolution of the fiscal structure in Morocco enter the period 1980-2012. Finally in the last axis we are going to present an empirical study estimating the impact of the fiscal structure on the economic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tries to examine the long run relationships between the aggregate consumer prices and some cost-based components for the Turkish economy. Based on a simple economic model of the macro-scaled price formation, multivariate cointegration techniques have been applied to test whether the real data support the a priori model construction. The results reveal that all of the factors, related to the price determination, have a positive impact on the consumer prices as expected. We find that the most significant component contributing to the price setting is the nominal exchange rate depreciation. We also cannot reject the linear homogeneity of the sum of all the price data as to the domestic inflation. The paper concludes that the Turkish consumer prices have in fact a strong cost-push component that contributes to the aggregate pricing.

The aim of this paper is to examine effectiveness of devaluation on the trade balance in four countries: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Peru. We use the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and impulse response function to estimate the long-run and shortrun effects of devaluation on the trade balance. The estimated results suggest that depreciation improve the trade balance in the long run for the case of Argentina and Peru, and in the short-run there has been J-curve in Argentina and Peru. In addition, the cointegration is found among the four variables (trade balance, domestic income, foreign incomes and real exchange rate) in the case of Argentina and Peru. The results also indicate that there is no cointegration relationship between these variables for Brazil and Mexico. The conclusion of the paper is that the evidence of the J-curve pattern was found for Argentina and Peru only.

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Wagner’s law and Keynes’ hypothesis has long been debated in economics. In this paper, we test the income-expenditure hypothesis for eighty-one of Turkey’s provinces for the period 1992 to 2013 using panel data analysis. For this purpose, the validity of these hypotheses is tested by applying recent panel cointegration and causality techniques, allowing for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity between regions. Under the presence of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, the level of integration of the variables was tested by means of the cross-sectionally augmented Dickey-Fuller test, the presence of long-run relationship of the variables was tested with the Westerlund-Edgerton Lagrange multiplier bootstrap test, long-run cointegration coefficients were estimated with the Eberhardt-Bond panel augmented mean group method, and finally causality relationship was defined by the Dumitrescu-Hurlin test. The results of this study provide strong support for the validity of Wagner’s law and Keynes’ hypothesis for Turkey.

This paper aims to consider the impact of military outlays on economic stance in several states in Central Europe. Therefore, we attempted to search the long- and short-range causality between defence spending and economic growth in the Visegrad countries through analysing general values (total spending approach), as well as outlay distribution in the defence sector (spending division approach). To do so, we first presented the theoretical aspect of the problem, as well as the trends in military spending of the considered states since 1993. Second, we reviewed international results of empirical examinations in this area. Then we examined causalities among variables on the grounds of VAR methodology. We did not validate the long-term causality between defence spending and economic growth in the Visegrad countries. Nonetheless, we confirmed several short-term relationships in both empirical approaches.

This paper explores the relationship between intra-industry investment (III) and intra-industry trade (IIT) using cointegration and the Granger causality test. The empirical results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium cointegration relationship between III and IIT in Chinese agriculture, manufacturing, the service sector and industry as a whole, and that this relationship is negative. Unidirectional Granger causality runs from III to IIT in manufacturing, the service sector and industry as a whole, but there is no strong evidence of causality running from IIT to III in any industry in China.

Copyright of Journal of Financial, Accounting & Managerial Studies is the property of Journal of Financial, Accounting & Managerial Studies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

House prices in Israel have registered unprecedented growth rates in the last few years. At first glance, these hikes could be explained by the evolution of fundamentals such strong population growth and favourable macroeconomic conditions, i.e. low interest rates. However, further investigation is needed in order to explore whether there is a misalignment between house prices and their fundamentals. Firstly, this paper investigates the role of construction costs in the evolution of house prices. Secondly, this contribution decomposes the “price-to-rent” ratio into fundamentals, frictions and bubble episodes for a better understanding of the recent trends of the market.

The study investigates the long-term relationship and dynamic short-term impact of public debt on foreign private investment for a developing country – Nigeria during the period 1962 to 2012. The paper deploys cointegration model to examine long-term relationship between the variables. The study also examines dynamic short-term impact and causality between public debt and foreign private investment using the VECM and Granger causality test. The study further examines the response paths of foreign private investment variable due to public debts shocks using variance decomposition. The results confirm absence of long-term relationship between public debt and foreign private investment in Nigeria. The results also show that external debt has negative impact on foreign private investment in the short-term. Finally, the results show that there is no causality between foreign private investment and public debt. The major economic implication of these findings is for debt management authorities to be conscious of growing external debts as it discourages foreign private investments into Nigeria.

This paper aims to investigate the effect of exchange-rate stability on real export volume in Turkey, using monthly data for the period February 2001 to January 2010. The Johansen multivariate cointegration method and the parsimonious error-correction model are applied to determine long-run and short-run relationships between real export volume and its determinants. In this study, the conditional variance of the GARCH (1, 1) model is taken as a proxy for exchange-rate stability, and generalized impulse-response functions and variance-decomposition analyses are applied to analyze the dynamic effects of variables on real export volume. The empirical findings suggest that exchangerate stability has a significant positive effect on real export volume, both in the short and the long run.

Due to the global financial crisis the stock exchange indices of Southeastern European (SEE) countries are stagnating or are slowly recovering. The issuers of securities, namely banks that achieve good business results, may be in a dilemma whether to buy back their shares so as to slow down the share price decrease and manage capital. In this paper, the cointegration tests, Granger causality test and equilibrium error correction model were applied to examine: 1) interdependencies of stock exchange indexes in SEE countries (Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Republic of Srpska, Macedonia - FYROM and Bulgaria); 2) interdependencies of most actively traded shares in Serbia and the representative index. The main conclusion is that it is not possible to successfully use the share buyback to stop or reduce the share price fall on a shallow capital market of SEE countries. This is opposite to what successful banks can do on deep capital markets. In interpreting quantitative results it is necessary to be cautious because of a small number of banks from SEE which were able to use share repurchase. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179065, br. 47009 i br. 179015]

Copyright of Roa Iktissadia Review is the property of Roa Iktissadia Review and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The paper investigates the causal nexus between gold price, stock price and exchange rate in India through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and Granger Causality test. Using monthly time series data, the empirical analysis is carried out for the period from June 1990 to April 2014. Our analysis reveals that gold price and stock price tend to have long-run relationship with exchange rate in India. Besides, there is no evidence of stable long-run cointegration relationship among stock price and gold price in India. Our empirical findings also indicate that there exists no causality runs from gold price to stock price or vice versa in the short-run. It can be concluded that domestic gold price does not contain any significant information to forecast stock prices in India. The study findings are consistent with Kaliyamoorthy and Parithi (2012) where they found no evidence of causality between the gold price and stock price in India.

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the international linkages among local, country-specific stock market factors in order to better understand the dependence structure of increasingly integrated world financial markets. The seeming discordance between Fama and French (1998) and Griffin (2002) regarding the multi-factor model in the international stock markets motivates us to study the international relationship among local factors. With the individual stock data from the six major developed countries in the international stock market, we compose daily returns to the Fama-French three factors (i.e. market, size, and value) and the momentum factor over the period from January 2000 to June 2010. We investigate the international linkages among local stock market factors, focusing on their equilibrium relationship in the integrated world financial market. The cointegration analysis indicates that local factor indices, constructed from the cumulative factor returns, are cointegrated for each of the four factor classes. Thus, we conclude that local factors are globally bound to each other through a long-run equilibrium relationship and that although stock market factors may be local, rather than global, individual stock returns are driven by common global stochastic trends.

The goal of this paper is to examine the long and short-run determinants, and stability of money demand (M1) in the Republic of Macedonia using monthly data from January 2005 to October 2012. The Johansen cointegration technique and VECM model were used to fi nd the long-run and short-term dynamic relationships in money demand model. Empirical results provide the evidence that exchange rate and interest rate payable on denar time deposits up to one month explains the most variations of money demand in the long-run, while interest rate is signifi cant only in short-run. Long-run money demand function is estimated to indicate slow speed of adjustment of removing the disequilibrium. Our fi nding shows that real money demand M1 in the Republic of Macedonia is stable in the analyzed period. The results obtained in this study suggest that the National Bank should carefully monitor the exchange rate and infl ation as two most important indicators of monetary policy, because these two determinants are the main drivers of demand for money in the short and long term.

Oil prices are often considered as a vital economic factor due to the dependence of the world economy on oil. The goal of this paper is to contribute to the literature on the dynamic relationship between oil prices and stock prices under the presence of possible structural breaks in an emerging market, Turkey. The empirical evidence suggests that the oil prices are important in explaining the stock market movements. Stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are found as cointegrated after taking structural breaks into account. Moreover, results of parameter stability test are consistent with our findings indicating that relationship between series is strong in the long-run. The results are important in the way that they show the global factors are also dominant on the Turkish stock market.

This paper investigates the long-run and short-run relationship between deposit euroization in twelve European post-transition economies and two determinants of deposit euroization that are under the influence of monetary policy: the exchange rate and the interest rate differential. The link between deposit euroization, exchange rates and interest rate differentials is investigated using Johansen cointegration and error correction models for each country separately. The results suggest that changes in both monetary drivers have significant effects on deposit euroization and are therefore important for explaining and fighting deposit euroization. Differences between exchange rate regimes, fixed and managed vs. floating, seem to matter for deposit euroization.

This paper shows that exchange rate depreciation in Serbia improves trade balance in the long run, while giving rise to a J-curve effect in the short run. These results add to the already existent empirical evidence for a diverse set of other economies. Both Johansen's and autoregressive distributed lag approach are respectively used giving similar long-run estimates showing that real depreciation improves trade balance. Corresponding errorcorrection models as well as impulse response functions indicate that, following currency depreciation, trade balance first deteriorates before it later improves, i.e. exhibiting the J-curve pattern. These results are relevant for policy making both in Serbia and in a number of other emerging Europe countries as they face major current account adjustments after BoP crises of 2009.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects of the trade liberalization and of the international financial integration on the long-term behavior of Real Exchange Rate (RER) for the South East Mediterranean countries. So the following question: how does the new trade and financial context affect the Equilibrium RER? We refer to the econometric technique of time series analysis, (the unit root tests of Dickey-Fuller (1979) and we apply the cointegration test of Engle and Granger (1987) of single equation for six South East Mediterranean countries (Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey) over the period of 1979-2004. Our estimates suggest that, for the six countries, long-term RER behavior depends essentially on economic specificity of each country and in particular on their degree of financial integration and trade opening. Our results also show that the evolution of the RER misalignment during our sample period, seem to be for some countries persistant and recurrent, but with decrease.

Tunisia has experienced a performance when pursuing a constant real exchange rate rule. The limitations of this rule are beginning to emerge in the context of a more open economy, which desire to relax capital controls. This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate of the dinar vis à vis the euro and the $US from 1983 to 2000, using quarterly data, based on the following fundamental variables: terms of trade, net capital inflows and the differential of productivity. Results show that Tunisian dinar was overvalued before the 1986 devaluation, becomes close to its equilibrium value over the 90s'. In the beginning of this century (2000), authorities permit a larger fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate. .

In this study, it is employed that Expectations-Augmented Philips Curve Model to investigate the link between inflation and unit labor costs, output gap (proxy for demand shocks), real exchange rate (proxy for supply shocks) and price expectations for Turkey using monthly data from 2000:01 to 2004:12. The methodology employed in this paper uses unit root test, Johansen Cointegration Test to examine the existence of possible long run relationships among the variables included in the model and a single equation error correction model for the inflation equation estimated by OLS to examine the short run dynamics of inflation, respectively. It is find that in the long run, mark-up behaviour of output prices over unit labor costs is the main cause of inflation, real exchange rate has a rather big impact on reduced inflation and demand shocks don’t led to an increase in prices. The short run dynamics of the inflation equation indicate that supply shocks are the determinant of inflation in the short run. It is also find that exchange rate is the variable that trigger an inflation adjustment the most rapidly in the short run.

Copyright of European Journal of Social Law / Revue Européenne du Droit Social is the property of Valahia University of Targoviste and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper has three goals: First, analyze the role of financing for sustainable development in small island development states (SIDS). Second, assess empirically whether there is any evidence that foreign capital flows in SIDS has a positive impact on economic growth and social welfare of these countries. Lastly, suggests strategic recommendations of financing for sustainable development in small island developing states. Haïti is used as a case study for this exercise, because according to the United Nations, this country is included in the SIDS also in the less developed countries (LDS). To this end, cointegration technique and Granger causality tests are used. Our results suggest (i) the weakness of national saving is the main obstacle in the most SIDS to accelerate economic growth and to improve social welfare; (ii) in the case of Haiti, the results revealed that remittances and foreign direct investment have positive impacts on human development in long run, (iii) short run analysis confirmed unidirectional causality running from remittances to human development also from remittances to foreign direct investment, (iv) the analysis suggests some policy recommendations such as domestic resource mobilization, policy stability, improvement of governance and institutions, building of physical infrastructure, financial development, suitable macroeconomic framework for price stability and improvement in human capital for the long-run growth of the economy.