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1. To predict shrub responses under climate change in tundra, we need to understand how thermal conditions and herbivory contribute to growth. We hypothesise that shrub growth increases with thermal conditions and precipitation, but that this increase is counteracted by insect herbivory, and that these climate–insect herbivory relationships are modified by both browsing and plant age. 2. We use empirical dynamic modelling (EDM) to analyse a 20‐year time series on willow Salix phylicifolia shoot growth, growing degree days, summer precipitation and herbivory from an experiment at forest–tundra ecotone. The experiment includes manipulations of avian and mammal browsing (fences) and ramet age (pruning to rejuvenate willows). 3. Negative effects of insect herbivory on willow shoot growth were intensified during warmer years, whereas increasing precipitation led to reduced effects. Moreover, the effect of insect herbivores on shoot growth varied with ramet age and vertebrate browsing: younger ramets generally experienced less negative insect herbivore effects, whereas ptarmigan browsing was associated with more positive temperature effects on shoot growth, and reindeer browsing with more negative effects of insect herbivory and precipitation. 4. Synthesis. Our findings show that the negative effects of insect herbivory on shoot growth likely intensify under warmer thermal conditions, but that increasing precipitation can counteract these effects. Moreover, changes in thermal conditions, precipitation and vertebrate browsers all have predictable, albeit complex and nonlinear, effects on shrub growth, highlighting the importance of long‐term experimental data and flexible analytical methods such as EDM for characterising climate and community interactions in artic systems.

Landscapes with a high share of agroforestry provide more regulating ecosystem services than landscapes dominated by conventional agriculture (Kay et al. 2018). Yet, which type of agroforestry to recommend depends on local and regional conditions and there may be regions where there is a higher need for agroforestry than others. We identified European farmlands where several ecosystem service (ES) deficits occur at the same time (soil erosion, low soil organic carbon and biodiversity, nitrate surplus, irrigation, low pest control and pollination potential). Almost ten percent of arable and grassland had more than five and four stacked deficits, respectively (Figure 1). In those areas, the introduction of agroforestry can help to reduce ES deficits. We propose 64 candidate agroforestry systems, which are locally adapted and attractive for farmers. They range from lines of trees around arable plots to relatively densely planted silvo-arable and silvo-pastoral systems. As an example for the reduction of ES deficits, we modelled the potential carbon sequestration of each candidate agroforestry system. The conversion of the 140,000 sqkm of priority farmland to agroforestry would sequester - depending mainly on the tree species and density - between 2 and 64 106 t of carbon per year in above and below ground biomass. This would correspond to up to 43 percent of the European greenhouse gas emissions attributed to the agricultural sector.

The economic growth in the last decades has been running at the expense of our environment. Given that all products derived from fossil fuel can be obtained from biomass, agroforestry reveals itself as one of the best allies for the circular bioeconomy, which can be part of the solution to address some of the most eminent European and global challenges: climate change, biodiversity loss, increasing forest fires, the plastic ocean… Agroforestry is known for the diversification of products that can be obtained in an integrative way, providing a great variety of raw materials that may be later on transformed into bio-based products

Agroforestry is one of the most prominent tools to make easy the transition of European agricultural and forestry farms to more sustainable land use systems such as agroforestry. The extent of agroforestry in Europe is 19.5 million of hectares, of which 85% is allocated to silvopastoralism mainly associated to European Southern countries but also present in some Eastern countries. Silvopasture is associated to the improvement of livestock farming systems providing feed in a more sustainable way while increasing the multiple ouputs production from the same unit of land, therefore improving rural development. The current share of silvopastoralism in the EU is the 10% of the permanent grasslands which shows the huge potential that this land use has. The second most important agroforestry systems are the homegardens which represents the 8.3% of agroforestry lands and occupy around 8.65% of the land allocated to homegardens. Forest farming is not inventoried at all, while silvoarable only occupies almost half a million hectares and less than 1% of the arable land. Europe fosters agroforestry mostly through the Rural Development programs with more than 383 and 467 measures fostering agroforestry in one way or another in the previous CAP (2007-2013) and current CAP (2014-2020). Future measures should be fostered through the CAP Strategic plans developed at country level

Executive summary: The AGFORWARD project (Grant Agreement N° 613520) had the overall goal to promote agroforestry practices in Europe that will advance sustainable rural development. It had four objectives (described below) which address 1) the context and extent of agroforestry in Europe, 2) identifying, developing and field-testing agroforestry innovations through participatory networks, 3) evaluating innovative designs and practices at field-, farm-, and landscape-scales, and promoting agroforestry in Europe through policy development and dissemination. Agroforestry is defined as the practice of deliberately integrating woody vegetation (trees or shrubs) with crop and/or animal systems to benefit from the resulting ecological and economic interactions. Context: European agroforestry has been estimated to cover 10.6 Mha (using a literature review) and 15.4 Mha using the pan-European LUCAS dataset (i.e. 8.8% of the utilised agricultural area). Livestock agroforestry (15.1 Mha) is, by far, the dominant type of agroforestry. The LUCAS analysis provides a uniform method to compare agroforestry areas between countries and over time. Identify, develop and field-test agroforestry innovations: 40 stakeholder groups (involving about 820 stakeholders across 13 European countries) developed and field-tested agroforestry innovations which have been reported in 40 “lesson learnt” reports, and in a user-friendly format in 46 “Agroforestry innovation leaflets”. The innovations for agroforestry systems of high nature and cultural value included cheaper methods of tree protection and guidance for establishing legumes in wood pastures. Innovations for agroforestry with timber plantations, olive groves and apple orchards include the use of medicinal plants and reduction of mowing costs. Innovations for integrating trees on arable farms included assessments of yield benefits by providing wind protection. Innovations for livestock farms included using trees to enhance animal welfare, shade protection, and as a source of fodder. Peer-reviewed journal papers and conference presentations on these and other related topics were developed. Evaluation of agroforestry designs and practices at field- and landscape-scale: a range of publicly available field-scale analysis tools are available on the AGFORWARD website. These include the “CliPick” climate database, and web-applications of the Farm-SAFE and Hi-sAFe model. The results of field- and landscape-scale analysis, written up as peer-reviewed papers, highlight the benefits of agroforestry (relative to agriculture) for biodiversity enhancement and providing regulating ecosystem services, such as for climate and water regulation and purification. Policy development and dissemination: detailed reviews of existing policy and recommendations for future European agroforestry policy have been produced. The support provided is far wider than the single specified agroforestry measures. The recommendations included the collation of existing measures, and that agroforestry systems should not forfeit Pillar I payments. Opportunities for farmlevel and landscape-level measures were also identified. The project results can be found on the project website (www.agforward.eu), a Facebook account (www.facebook.com/AgforwardProject), a Twitter account (https://twitter.com/AGFORWARD_EU), and a quarterly electronic newsletter (http://www.agforward.eu/index.php/en/newsletters-1514.html). The number of national associations in Europe was extended to twelve, and a web-based training resource on agroforestry (http://train.agforward.eu/language/en/agforall/) created. AGFORWARD also supported the Third European Agroforestry Conference in Montpellier in 2016 attracting 287 delegates from 26 countries including many farmers. We also initiated another 21 national conferences or conference sessions on agroforestry, made about 240 oral presentations, 61 poster presentations, produced about 50 news articles, and supported about 87 workshop, training or field-visit activities (in addition to the stakeholder groups).

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AFINET is one of the seventeen thematic networks that the European Union has financed under the H2020 framework and it is supervised by the EIP-Agri in order to foster innovation in Europe. The main topic of AFINET is agroforestry a practice of deliberately integrating woody vegetation with crops and/or animal systems and the promotion of this practice to foster climate changes. AFINET follows a multi-actor approach linked to the nine Regional Innovations Networks created to identify main challenges and develop main innovations about agroforestry. Main challenges were related to technical, economic, communication and policy issues.

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