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Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is expected to win the upcoming election, despite the boycott by the country's largest opposition group, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. The US has been pressuring Bangladesh for a free and fair election, imposing visa restrictions on members of Hasina's ruling party and law enforcement officials. The US is the largest buyer of Bangladesh's exports, particularly in the garment industry, which employs around 4 million workers. India is concerned that US sanctions could push Bangladesh closer to China, as both countries already have strong ties. Bangladesh has made economic progress under Hasina, but the pandemic and soaring commodity prices have strained the economy, leading to a reliance on IMF loans. The outcome of the election and post-election stability will be closely watched by investors and the IMF. [Extracted from the article]

Tropical storm Krathon, also known as Julian in the Philippines, is approaching the northern parts of Luzon island. There is a high chance that it will rapidly intensify and potentially become a super typhoon. The Philippine weather bureau has issued warnings of heavy rainfall and strong winds, placing mainland Cagayan and the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands on alert. Krathon is expected to reach typhoon category by Sunday evening or early Monday morning and may approach the southwestern islands of Okinawa prefecture in Japan later in the week. [Extracted from the article]

The potential return of Donald Trump as the next US president could negatively impact emerging-market currencies due to his protectionist economic policies. The South Korean won, Indonesia's rupiah, Thailand's baht, and Malaysia's ringgit all experienced declines after an assassination attempt on Trump increased his odds of winning the presidency. Investors are concerned that Trump's plans to cut taxes and raise tariffs could lead to inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policies. Additionally, Trump's protectionist policies could pose challenges for emerging-market nations' external finances. [Extracted from the article]

The Philippine central bank is taking steps to control speculation in the foreign-exchange market as the peso weakens towards a record low. The bank intervened in the market on Tuesday in small amounts to address the depreciation of the peso. Governor Eli Remolona stated that during times of depreciation, there is a tendency for traders to offer large amounts when selling the peso, leading to increased price fluctuations. The bearishness towards the peso has increased after Remolona's announcement that the central bank may begin cutting its benchmark rate in August. The peso has lost 3.5% this quarter and is the worst performer among emerging markets. [Extracted from the article]

The Philippine central bank has issued a warning that it will intervene in the currency market as the peso dropped below the key level of 58 per dollar. The central bank aims to smoothen excessive volatility and restore order during periods of stress. The peso's decline is attributed to the dollar's strength as the Federal Reserve signals a delay in rate cuts. The Philippine government has previously vowed to take aggressive action to prevent the peso from breaching 60 per dollar. [Extracted from the article]

The Philippine peso has dropped below the key 58-per-dollar level, leading the central bank to announce its intention to intervene in the market to reduce volatility. The peso fell by 0.6% to 58.23 per dollar, approaching its record-low level of 59 in 2022. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will intervene in the foreign-exchange market to smooth excessive volatility and restore order during periods of stress. The peso's decline is attributed to bearish sentiment and the possibility of rate cuts by the central bank. The drop in reserves and the strength of the US dollar have also contributed to the peso's decline. The Philippine government has previously pledged to take aggressive action to prevent the currency from breaching 60 pesos per dollar. [Extracted from the article]

The Philippine peso has dropped below the key 58-per-dollar level, prompting concerns about the currency's stability and putting pressure on the central bank to take action. The peso's decline this year has reached about 4.5%, and the country's reserves have fallen to $102.6 billion. The central bank governor has suggested that they may reduce the benchmark rate in August, in contrast to other countries in the region. The government has also expressed its commitment to preventing the peso from weakening further. [Extracted from the article]

The Philippines is currently investigating an alleged recording made by the Chinese Embassy in Manila of a phone call between a local military official and Chinese officials. The call supposedly reached an agreement regarding the countries' dispute over territory in the South China Sea. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has stated that they are looking into the matter, as there has been mention of a tape confirming the agreement. However, Philippine officials have denied the existence of any agreement and President Marcos has expressed skepticism until he hears the contents of the recording himself. [Extracted from the article]

The Philippines has signed a deal to purchase five patrol boats from Japan, worth approximately $415 million, in response to growing tensions in the South China Sea. The agreement was financed through a Japanese loan and signifies the deepening of bilateral relations between the two countries. The Philippines is strengthening its naval resources as tensions escalate with China, and Japan, along with Australia and the United States, has affirmed its support for the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal Award that favored the Philippines. [Extracted from the article]

The Philippine peso experienced the largest decline in Asia due to expectations of an interest-rate cut following weak economic growth data. The currency fell by 0.7% to 57.81 per dollar, bringing it closer to the 58 level, which is seen as a crucial point for the central bank to defend. While the central bank is expected to keep rates on hold during the upcoming rate decision, there is growing anticipation for easing later in the year. Governor Eli Remolona has previously stated that monetary easing is likely to begin in the first quarter of 2025, with moderate cuts to mitigate inflationary risks. The Philippine economy grew by 5.7% in the first quarter, slightly below expectations, and inflation remains a concern due to strain on food supply. [Extracted from the article]

The Philippine peso is currently being defended by the central bank at a level of 58 per dollar, after experiencing a slump to a 17-month low. The central bank has stated that it is prepared to manage any unnecessary movement and excessive volatility in the currency. The peso's weakness is attributed to receding Federal Reserve interest-rate cut bets and tensions in the Middle East. The central bank is relying on verbal warnings for now to manage the peso, and it has a proven record of successfully defending the currency in the past. The peso may rise to as high as 56.50 per dollar by the end of the second quarter. [Extracted from the article]

Peru's credit rating has been downgraded by S&P Global Ratings due to political turmoil, which is negatively impacting investor sentiment and hindering economic growth. The country's rating was lowered to BBB-, the lowest investment-grade rating, on par with Hungary and Romania. S&P predicts a moderate economic recovery for Peru in the coming years, but political challenges are expected to continue to limit growth and investor confidence. The government's ability to implement effective policies to boost investment and economic growth is also constrained. Peru's economy suffered last year due to political instability and severe weather, and the country is currently seeking political stability after cycling through multiple presidencies. [Extracted from the article]

Israel has been downgraded by S&P Global Ratings due to escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East. S&P lowered Israel's sovereign credit score by one notch to A+, the same level as Bermuda and China. The decision comes after Moody's Investors Service also downgraded Israel's credit score. S&P cited the recent increase in confrontation with Iran and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war as reasons for the downgrade. The rating downgrade may put pressure on Israel's bonds and currency, and S&P predicts that Israel's general government deficit will widen due to higher defense spending. However, the Finance Ministry's accountant general maintains that Israeli government bonds are still a safe asset and the domestic economy is strong. [Extracted from the article]

Asian officials are taking action to counter the resurgent dollar and maintain currency stability. Japan's currency chief reiterated the Group-of-Seven's commitment to preventing disorderly moves, while South Korea and China also expressed their desire to avoid excessive volatility in their currencies. Emerging markets in the region, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, have been proactive in taking measures to support their currencies. However, analysts believe that unless there is coordinated intervention among major central banks, jawboning can only slow down the dollar's strength, not stop it. The dollar's recent strength has outperformed all major currencies, making Asian assets less appealing. The possibility of joint intervention, similar to the Plaza Accord in the 1980s, has not yet been considered necessary. Geopolitical risks and upcoming US elections may contribute to further volatility in Asian and emerging-market currencies. [Extracted from the article]

The Philippine peso has weakened past the 57-per-dollar level for the first time since late 2022, putting pressure on the central bank to support the currency. Governor Eli Remolona stated that the central bank tends to allow currency adjustments unless they are very sharp. While Remolona described 57 as a "weak support level," it is still being monitored as officials previously intervened to defend the peso at that level. The US dollar has gained strength recently due to rising tensions in the Middle East and signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that rate cuts may be delayed. Central banks in emerging markets, including South Korea, have also increased support for their currencies. [Extracted from the article]

The Philippine peso has weakened past the 57-per-dollar level for the first time since late 2022. This decline is attributed to expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay interest-rate cuts, which has negatively impacted risk assets. The governor of the central bank, Eli Remolona, has stated that he is comfortable with the peso's current level and that the bank has not been intervening significantly in the foreign-currency market. However, the 57 level is still being monitored, as officials previously intervened to defend the peso at this level. The US dollar has gained strength recently due to rising tensions in the Middle East and indications from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that rate cuts will be delayed. Central banks in emerging markets, including South Korea, have also taken steps to support their currencies. [Extracted from the article]

The resurgent dollar has had a significant impact on global emerging-market currencies, weakening many of them and forcing officials to intervene. China's decision to weaken its daily reference rate for the yuan added to the selling pressure. The Indonesian rupiah, Indian rupee, and South Korean won were among the hardest hit. The dollar's strength has also affected stocks, with a benchmark of emerging-market equities erasing their gains for the year. The situation is expected to continue until there is more clarity on the Federal Reserve's plans. [Extracted from the article]

The Philippine peso has weakened past the 57-per-dollar level for the first time since late 2022. This is due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay interest-rate cuts, which has weighed on risk assets. The peso dropped as much as 0.4% to 57.20 per dollar on Wednesday, the lowest since November 2022. The central bank governor has stated that he is comfortable with the peso's current level and that the central bank has hardly been intervening in the foreign-currency market. The US dollar has regained strength recently due to rising tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve signaling a delay in rate cuts. Central banks across emerging markets, including South Korea, have also stepped up support for their currencies. [Extracted from the article]

Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, has instructed authorities to expedite negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a new loan, as the country's current $3 billion bailout program is set to end in April. Pakistan had planned to seek a new loan of at least $6 billion from the IMF. The nation faces $25 billion of external debt payments in the upcoming fiscal year, and securing fresh funds is crucial. Sharif's return as prime minister increases the chances of securing a new IMF aid package, as his previous administration has a track record of carrying out reforms. [Extracted from the article]

Malaysia's central bank, Bank Negara Malaysia, is prepared to intervene in the currency market to curb the volatility of the ringgit. The currency has reached its weakest level since the Asian financial crisis in 1998, which could lead to higher prices of goods and services. Analysts expect the central bank to intervene if the ringgit reaches around 4.8 per dollar. The country's slowing economy and the pressure from the opposition party add to the challenges faced by the government. However, there is optimism that the economy will improve and the ringgit will strengthen by the end of the year. [Extracted from the article]

Investors are closely watching the Malaysian ringgit as it approaches a key threshold that may prompt intervention from the central bank. Analysts expect the bank to intervene if the ringgit reaches around 4.8 per dollar, as policymakers have recently expressed concerns about the currency's weakness. The depreciating ringgit is expected to raise prices and pose challenges for authorities as they consider their next monetary policy move. The country's slowing economy and the US dollar's strength are also contributing to the pressure on the ringgit. [Extracted from the article]

Malaysia's central bank, Bank Negara Malaysia, has stated that the ringgit is undervalued and should be stronger given the positive economic outlook of the country. This comes after the currency reached a 26-year low. The central bank has been engaging with government-linked companies, corporates, and investors to encourage inflows to the foreign exchange market. However, economists have lowered their GDP growth forecasts for Malaysia due to the impact of China's slowing growth and other factors. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the central bank is unlikely to heavily defend the ringgit, which may lead to further weakening of the currency. [Extracted from the article]

Malaysian businesses are facing challenges due to the weak currency, which is increasing the cost of importing materials and servicing foreign debt. The ringgit has reached its lowest level in 26 years, prompting the government to closely monitor the situation. Industries such as airlines and raw material-intensive sectors are particularly vulnerable. Companies in the airline sector, including Malaysia Airlines and AirAsia, are at risk due to currency mismatch in operations and debt denominated in dollars. However, some companies, such as Petroliam Nasional Bhd. and Sime Darby Plantation Bhd., may benefit from the weak ringgit. [Extracted from the article]

S&P Global Ratings predicts that the Malaysian ringgit will rebound by 9% by the end of 2024 and assures that the weak currency does not pose a risk to the country's sovereign rating. The ringgit has reached its lowest level in 26 years due to China's slow economy affecting Malaysian exports, leading some analysts to believe that it may reach a new record low. However, S&P and Moody's Investors Service both emphasize the safety of Malaysia's credit rating despite the currency's weakness, as the majority of the nation's debt is denominated in the local currency. Malaysia has maintained an A- credit rating since 2003, indicating its strong ability to repay debt. [Extracted from the article]

Pakistan's dollar bonds, which were the top performer in Asia in January, may face challenges as investors await a new leader to secure a funding deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Pakistan's notes gained 9% last month, but the upcoming election could impact the country's ability to negotiate a fresh IMF bailout as the current one expires in March. The nation's external debt payments for the next fiscal year are three times its foreign-exchange reserves, and interim Finance Minister Shamshad Akhtar has indicated that Pakistan may need another loan from the IMF. The outcome of the election and subsequent negotiations with the IMF will be crucial for Pakistan's economic stability. [Extracted from the article]

Keywords: %EUR; %INR; %MXN; %ZAR; AFRICA; ALLTOP; ASIA; BON; BUSINESS; FRX; GLOBALMACR; INDIA; LATAM; MARKETS; WORLD; WWTOP EN %EUR %INR %MXN %ZAR AFRICA ALLTOP ASIA BON BUSINESS FRX GLOBALMACR INDIA LATAM MARKETS WORLD WWTOP A short-lived reprieve for emerging-market carry trades funded in dollars looks to be over, with an upsurge in U.S. inflation making the outlook increasingly treacherous. R2M387DWRGG100000 DNMLENf-20211115121157.xml R2M387DWRGG1 (Bloomberg) -- A short-lived reprieve for emerging-market carry trades funded in dollars looks to be over, with an upsurge in U.S. inflation making the outlook increasingly treacherous. [Extracted from the article]

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Pictet Asset Management believe that the pessimism surrounding Egypt's dollar bonds is unwarranted and that the nation will avoid default. Despite challenges such as Moody's credit outlook downgrade and the devaluation of the pound, Goldman Sachs argues that the probability of Egypt defaulting on its debt is lower than what the market has priced. Pictet also sees potential for high single-digit returns for exposure to developing markets like Egypt. Both banks believe that the global macro backdrop will be favorable for lower-rated countries. [Extracted from the article]

Bangladesh's central bank is considering implementing a crawling peg system for its currency, deviating from its previous plan to allow the exchange rate to float freely. The central bank is currently working on the system, in collaboration with a technical mission from the International Monetary Fund. Bangladesh had initially pledged to float its currency in order to create a more transparent and efficient market, but has now deemed a market-driven exchange rate as too risky for inflation. The crawling peg system is seen as a preliminary stage before transitioning to a floating exchange rate mechanism. The central bank is expected to announce the new currency system in its upcoming monetary policy statement. [Extracted from the article]

Chinese government bond yields have reached their lowest point in over three years due to expectations of further monetary easing following weak economic data. The yield on the 10-year sovereign note dropped to 2.54%, the lowest since April 2020. This rally began last year with the central bank's liquidity support and multiple deposit rate cuts by major lenders. Analysts predict that the outlook for bonds this year will depend on how aggressively the People's Bank of China loosens its policy to support the economic rebound. [Extracted from the article]

Pakistan's dollar bonds are expected to rally for a second year as the government is likely to secure another bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). UBS Asset Management and William Blair Investment Management believe that Pakistan's bonds will remain attractive after nearly doubling in value in 2023. While the gains are expected to moderate, reforms such as increasing fuel and electricity prices may lead to another round of funding. Fulfilling IMF demands has also helped Pakistan secure financing from friendly countries and other multilateral lenders, reducing the risk of default in 2024. [Extracted from the article]

The Philippines and France have agreed to begin discussions on a defense agreement that would allow troop visits. This move comes as the Philippines seeks to strengthen its military ties, particularly in light of tensions in the South China Sea. The Philippines is also in talks with Japan for a similar agreement, which would provide a legal framework for the presence of foreign troops during joint military exercises. [Extracted from the article]

The Philippines and France have agreed to begin negotiations for a defense agreement that would allow troop visits. This move comes as the Philippines seeks to strengthen military ties in response to tensions in the South China Sea. The agreement, if reached, would enhance defense and military activities between the two countries. The Philippines is also in talks with Japan for a similar deal. [Extracted from the article]

Bangladesh's central bank expects to receive $1.1 billion in loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) by next month. These loans will help alleviate pressure on the country's currency and foreign-exchange reserves. The IMF and ADB loans will provide $681 million and $400 million, respectively. Bangladesh has been facing a dollar liquidity squeeze, leading to a downgrade in its sovereign rating outlook. The new loans will help address the dollar shortage and ease the country's short-term financial obligations. The central bank also anticipates the currency to appreciate further. Bangladesh aims to reduce inflation to 8% by December and 6% by the end of the fiscal year in June. Economic stress is expected to decline rapidly after the national elections in January. [Extracted from the article]

Emerging-market currencies are on track for their best performance since 2017, as a late rally attracts investors seeking higher yields. The MSCI EM Currency Index has risen 3.4% this year, with a 0.3% increase on Tuesday. The recovery comes after a volatile year for developing-nation currencies, marked by unpredictable moves related to China's economic growth, US inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's interest-rate policies. Latin America and Eastern Europe have seen the most significant returns, with the currencies of Poland and Hungary leading the rebound. However, some currencies, such as the Turkish lira and Malaysian ringgit, have experienced losses. Goldman Sachs predicts that emerging markets will continue to offer attractive returns in 2024. [Extracted from the article]

African countries are facing a scarcity of dollars, leading to a divide among investors. Governments are resorting to bartering, currency devaluations, exchange controls, and assistance from the IMF and Middle East to address the shortage. Investors are favoring countries that can ensure access to dollars for investment and repatriation of returns, while avoiding those without sufficient reserves. African currencies have been the worst performers this year, with several declining by at least 15% against the dollar. The dollar shortage is also impacting consumers and local businesses, causing import costs to rise and fueling inflation. [Extracted from the article]

Sri Lanka's dollar bonds have experienced a significant surge this year, making them Asia's best-performing trade. However, this bull run may be coming to an end as investors become skeptical about further gains, considering that the successful debt revamp has already been priced in. While the country has made progress in resolving its debt restructuring with investors and countries like China, it is still waiting for proposals from creditors like India and Japan. Some investors believe there is still room for gains, especially with progress in economic reforms and the possibility of receiving the next IMF loan tranche. However, the key to further gains lies in Sri Lanka's ability to deliver on its fiscal consolidation plans. [Extracted from the article]

(Bloomberg) -- Suriname offered to swap $675 million of dollar bonds for new notes, including those linked to oil royalties, as the South American nation wraps up the final steps of its debt restructuring. The IMF last month approved a $52 million loan disbursement from Suriname's bailout program, saying the government's commitment to macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline is starting to bear fruit. [Extracted from the article]

(Bloomberg) -- Suriname offered to swap $675 million of dollar bonds for new notes, including those linked to oil royalties, as the South American nation wraps up the final steps of its debt restructuring. The International Monetary Fund last month approved a $52 million loan disbursement from Suriname's bailout program, saying the government's commitment to macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline is starting to bear fruit. [Extracted from the article]

Bangladesh's dollar stockpile dropped to $21.1 billion as of Oct. 11, below the IMF target of $25.3 billion. (Bloomberg) -- Bangladesh won an initial funding approval from the International Monetary Fund, which allows the country to receive the next loan tranche from a $4.7 billion bailout package. [Extracted from the article]

"We are betting that over the next 12 months, rates will peak and as rates go down, bond prices will improve." (Bloomberg) -- BPI Wealth, which helps manage around $82 billion in assets in the Philippines, is buying longer-term government bonds on expectation the central bank will trim interest rates as inflation eases in the months ahead. While Governor Eli Remolona this month signaled the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is open to raising interest rates again, some economists predict the monetary authority will start lowering them next year. [Extracted from the article]

The Philippines plans to offer $1 billion of sukuk bonds in late November and is planning a euro bond sale next year. (Bloomberg) -- The Philippines raised $1.3 billion from a sale of dollar bonds targeted at individuals as the government seeks to diversify its sources of funding. [Extracted from the article]

(Bloomberg) -- S&P Global Ratings warned of the risk of company defaults in emerging markets, as firms struggle to stomach higher funding costs. Debt maturities in EMs, excluding China, will average $47 billion from 2024 to 2027, compared with $20 billion this year, according to data obtained from S&P. "Issuer competition for liquidity will be fierce in the next two years", S&P analysts led by Elijah Oliveros-Rosen wrote in a report published on Wednesday. [Extracted from the article]

(Bloomberg) -- The embattled Philippine peso will probably strengthen to 55 per dollar by the end of the year, implying a gain of more than 3% from its current level, according to Sunlife of Canada Philippines Inc. "We see the peso appreciating toward the end of the year due to seasonal inflows such as remittances", Valerie Pama, chief asset management officer, said in an interview on Tuesday. The peso, which closed at 56.78 per dollar on Tuesday, slid almost 4% in the past six months as the dollar's dominance weighed on emerging-market currencies. [Extracted from the article]

The rupee surged almost 6% in September, a remarkable feat as most currencies including the Thai baht and South Korean won tumbled against the dollar on speculation US interest-rates will stay elevated for longer. (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan's rupee is set to become the top performer globally this month as a government crackdown on the illegal dollar trade helped reverse its fortunes. [Extracted from the article]

Defending a specific level in the dollar-peso pair is nothing new to the Philippine central bank, which spent billions of dollars of its FX reserves last year to prevent deeper currency weakness. (Bloomberg) -- An under-pressure Philippine peso is making its third attempt since August to breach a key trigger point for central bank intervention, as broad gains in the dollar reduced the appeal of Asian assets. The peso is among the worst-performing Asian currencies this quarter, as an increase in crude prices hurt sentiment toward the oil-importing nation and the dollar advanced amid a hawkish Federal Reserve. [Extracted from the article]

Fitch joins S&P Global Ratings in downgrading the outlook on Bangladesh even after the South Asian country secured a $4.7 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund in January. (Bloomberg) -- Bangladesh's sovereign rating outlook was cut by Fitch Ratings to negative from stable as declining reserves and a squeeze in dollar liquidity increased the South Asian nation's vulnerability to shocks. [Extracted from the article]

Thailand's current account is supportive of the baht while the nation's real rates have turned firmly positive, he said. (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's baht may be poised for a rebound as analysts bet that growth measures announced by newly appointed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin will bear fruit. [Extracted from the article]

"Ultimately, political stability will make or break the currency - if the Taliban lose control at home, then the currency too will suffer", BMI's Basu said. (Bloomberg) -- Billions of dollars from humanitarian aid and rising trade with Asian neighbors has propelled Afghanistan's currency to the top of global rankings this quarter - an unusual spot for a poverty-stricken country with one of the world's worst human rights records. [Extracted from the article]

The baht's struggles reflect the challenges confronting Asian currencies as a resurgent dollar and higher Treasury yields damp the appeal of emerging-market assets. Concerns are rising about Thailand's fiscal health as elevated oil prices boost the nation's energy import bill and the government's borrowings increase. [Extracted from the article]