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Abstract Background Human cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) infection originate, ultimately, in the bacterium's wildlife host populations. The epidemiological dynamics of the wildlife reservoir therefore determine the abundance, distribution and evolution of the pathogen, which in turn shape the frequency, distribution and virulence of human cases. Earlier studies have shown clear evidence of climatic forcing on contemporary plague abundance in rodents and humans. Results We find that high-resolution palaeoclimatic indices correlate with plague prevalence and population density in a major plague host species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), over 1949-1995. Climate-driven models trained on these data predict independent data on human plague cases in early 20th-century Kazakhstan from 1904-1948, suggesting a consistent impact of climate on large-scale wildlife reservoir dynamics influencing human epidemics. Extending the models further back in time, we also find correspondence between their predictions and qualitative records of plague epidemics over the past 1500 years. Conclusions Central Asian climate fluctuations appear to have had significant influences on regional human plague frequency in the first part of the 20th century, and probably over the past 1500 years. This first attempt at ecoepidemiological reconstruction of historical disease activity may shed some light on how long-term plague epidemiology interacts with human activity. As plague activity in Central Asia seems to have followed climate fluctuations over the past centuries, we may expect global warming to have an impact upon future plague epidemiology, probably sustaining or increasing plague activity in the region, at least in the rodent reservoirs, in the coming decades. See commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/108

The Qilian Mountains (QMs), located in the northeast part of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau in China, have a fragile ecological environment, complex and sensitive climate, and diverse land-cover types. It plays an important role in the "Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau Ecological Barrier" and "Northern Sand Control Belt" in China's "two screens and three belts" ecological security strategy. Based on land use data of 1980, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, we utilized GIS technology, land use dynamic degree, and land use transition matrixes to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of land use in the QMs from 1980 to 2020. The results showed the following: (1) From 1980 to 2020, grassland, forest land, and unused land were the main land-use types in the QMs, and the proportion of construction land accounted for only 0.31% of all land-use types. (2) The single land use dynamic degree showed that the dynamic degree of construction land was the highest and the fastest change rate from 2010 to 2015. The comprehensive land use dynamic degree showed that the intensity of land-use change was relatively drastic in the three time periods of 1990–1995, 1995–2000, and 2015–2020. (3) The land-use types in the study area switched infrequently during 2000–2005, 2005–2010, and 2010–2015. (4) The main transition directions of land-use types were grassland and unused land to other land-use types. These changes altered the spatial distributions of different land-use types. The study is critical for understanding the spatial and temporal change patterns of land-use change in the QMs and providing guidance for the optimization of land use in the study area and the improvement of regional eco-environmental protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has a significant impact on water resources. Forecasts and simulations of climate runoff processes are essential for assessing the impact of global climate change on runoff variations. This study focuses on the upper Taohe River Basin, which is an important watershed in the semi-arid regions of northwest China. To assess the runoff in the upper Taohe River Basin and the responses to climate change, the SWAT hydrological model was used to analyze future climate change scenarios and their effects on water resources. The results indicate that the minimum temperature would increase gradually in the 21st century and that the minimum temperature change would be more significant than the maximum temperature change, which indicates that minimum temperature changes would make an obvious contribution to future regional warming. Under RCP2.6, the average precipitation would decrease; at the same time, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the average precipitation would increase. In the future, under different climate scenarios, the runoff will exhibit droughts and flood disasters. These research results provide scientific support for water resource utilization and management in the Taohe River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]