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1. Chapter 5: Time series and trend results

Author

Hassler, B., Damadeo, R., Chang, K-L., Sofieva, V. F., Tourpali, K., Frith, S. M., Ball, W. T., Degenstein, D. A., Godin-Beekmann, S., Hubert, D., Maillard-Barras, E., Misios, S., Petropavlovskikh, I., Roth, C. Z., Steinbrecht, W., Vigouroux, C., von Clarmann, T., Zawada, D. J., Zerefos, C. S., Alsing, J., Balis, D., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Eleftheratos, K., Gruzdev, A., Kapsomenakis, J., Laeng, A., Laine, M., Taylor, Michael, Weber, M., Wild, J. D., Petropavlovskikh, I., Godin-Beekmann, S., Hubert, D., Damadeo, R., Hassler, B., and Sofieva, V.

Abstract

The ultimate goal of LOTUS is to improve confidence in calculated ozone trend values via an improved understanding of the uncertainties. Chapter 3 highlighted many of the challenges facing analyses of long-term ozone time series, and despite the fact that many of those challenges still need to be addressed, it is worthwhile to assess the trend results from this work in such a way as to be able to place those in the context of previous work. This chapter highlights the results of taking the "LOTUS regression" model from Chapter 4 and applying it to the different data sets (i.e., satellite, ground, and model) at different resolutions comparable to those in previous ozone assessments and comprehensive studies (e.g., WMO, 2014; Harris et al., 2015; Steinbrecht et al., 2017). The individual satellite-based trend results are then combined to obtain a single mean ozone trend profile with respective uncertainty estimates. This important yet challenging final step in the assessment has been the cause of debate in the community in recent years. Different methods for combining the individual trend results are discussed and explained, and the final trend profile estimates are analysed for significance.

Published
2019

2. Chapter 4: The LOTUS regression model

Author

Damadeo, R., Hassler, B., Zawada, D. J., Frith, S. M., Ball, W. T., Chang, K-L., Degenstein, D. A., Hubert, D., Misios, S., Petropavlovskikh, I., Roth, C. Z., Sofieva, V. F., Steinbrecht, W., Tourpali, K., Zerefos, C. S., Alsing, J., Balis, D., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Eleftheratos, K., Godin-Beekmann, S., Gruzdev, A., Kapsomenakis, J., Laeng, A., Laine, M., Maillard-Barras, E., Taylor, Michael, von Clarmann, T., Weber, M., Wild, J. D., Petropavlovskikh, I., Godin-Beekmann, S., Hubert, D., Damadeo, R., Hassler, B., and Sofieva, V.

Abstract

One of the primary motivations of the LOTUS effort is to attempt to reconcile the discrepancies in ozone trend results from the wealth of literature on the subject. Doing so requires investigating the various methodologies employed to derive long-term trends in ozone as well as to examine the large array of possible variables that feed into those methodologies and analyse their impacts on potential trend results. Given the limited amount of time, the LOTUS group focused on the most common methodology of multiple linear regression and performed a number of sensitivity tests with the goal of trying to establish best practices and come to a consensus on a single regression model to use for this study. This chapter discusses the details and results of the sensitivity tests before describing the components of the final single model that was chosen and the reasons for that choice.

Published
2019

4. State of the Climate in 2012

Author

Blunden, Jessica, Arndt, Derek S., Achberger, Christine, Ackerman, Stephen A., Albanil, Adelina, Alexander, P., Alfaro, Eric J., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Ambenje, Peter, Andrianjafinirina, Solonomenjanahary, Antonov, John, Aravequia, Jose A., Arendt, A., Arevalo, Juan, Ashik, I., Atheru, Zachary, Banzon, Viva, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Barriopedro, David E., Beard, Grant, Becker, Andreas, Behrenfeld, Michael J., Bell, Gerald D., Benedetti, Angela, Bernhard, Germar, Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bhatt, U., Bidegain, Mario, Bindoff, Nathan, Bissolli, Peter, Blake, Eric S., Booneeady, Raj, Bosilovich, Michael, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Brown, L., Bruhwiler, Lori, Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Burrows, John, Calderon, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Jayaka, Cao, Y., Cappelen, J., Carrasco, Gualberto, Chambers, Don P., Chang A, L., Chappell, Petra, Chehade, Wissam, Cheliah, Muthuvel, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Ciais, Phillipe, Coelho, Caio A. S., Cogley, J. G., Colwell, Steve, Cross, J. N., Crouch, Jake, Cunningham, Stuart A., Dacic, Milan, Jeu, Richard A. M., Dekaa, Francis S., Demircan, Mesut, Derksen, C., Diamond, Howard J., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Dong Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Drozdov, D. S., Duguay, Claude R., Dunn, Robert J. H., Duran-Quesada, Ana M., Dutton, Geoff S., Ehmann, Christian, Elkins, James W., Euscategui, Christian, Famiglietti, James S., Fang Fan, Fauchereau, Nicolas, Feely, Richard A., Fekete, Balazs M., Fenimore, Chris, Fioletov, Vitali E., Fogarty, Chris T., Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris K., Foster, Michael J., Frajka-Williams, Eleanor, Franz, Bryan A., Frith, Stacey H., Frolov, I., Ganter, Catherine, Garzoli, Silvia, Geai, M. -L, Gerland, S., Gitau, Wilson, Gleason, Karin L., Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Goni, Gustavo, Good, Simon A., Gottschalck, Jonathan, Gregg, Margarita C., Griffiths, Georgina, Grooss, Jens-Uwe, Guard, Charles Chip, Gupta, Shashi K., Hall, Bradley D., Halpert, Michael S., Harada, Yayoi, Hauri, C., Heidinger, Andrew K., Heikkila, Anu, Heim, Richard R., Heimbach, Patrick, Hidalgo, Hugo G., Hilburn, Kyle, Ho, Shu-Peng, Hobbs, Will R., Holgate, Simon, Hovsepyan, Anahit, Hu Zeng-Zhen, Hughes, P., Hurst, Dale F., Ingvaldsen, R., Inness, Antje, Jaimes, Ena, Jakobsson, Martin, James, Adamu I., Jeffries, Martin O., Johns, William E., Johnsen, Bjorn, Johnson, Gregory C., Johnson, Bryan, Jones, Luke T., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, Johannes W., Kamga, Andre, Kang, Kyun-Kuk, Kanzow, Torsten O., Kao, Hsun-Ying, Keller, Linda M., Kennedy, John J., Key, J., Khatiwala, Samar, Pour, H. Kheyrollah, Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Kijazi, Agnes, Kikuchi, T., Kim, B. -M, Kim, S. -J, Kimberlain, Todd B., Knaff, John A., Korshunova, Natalia N., Koskela, T., Kousky, Vernon E., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, David P., Krishfield, R., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Kumar, Arun, Lagerloef, Gary S. E., Lakkala, K., Lander, Mark A., Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Laurila, T., Lazzara, Matthew A., Lee, Craig, Leuliette, Eric, Levitus, Sydney, L Heureux, Michelle, Lieser, Jan, Lin, I-I, Liu, Y. Y., Liu, Y., Liu Hongxing, Liu Yanju, Lobato-Sanchez, Rene, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Loeng, H., Long, Craig S., Lorrey, Andrew M., Luhunga, P., Lumpkin, Rick, Luo Jing-Jia, Lyman, John M., Macdonald, Alison M., Maddux, Brent C., Malekela, C., Manney, Gloria, Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, Jose A., Marotzke, Jochem, Marra, John J., Martinez-Gueingla, Rodney, Massom, Robert A., Mathis, Jeremy T., Mcbride, Charlotte, Mccarthy, Gerard, Mcvicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl, Meier, W., Meinen, Christopher S., Menendez, Melisa, Merrifield, Mark A., Mitchard, Edward, Mitchum, Gary T., Montzka, Stephen A., Morcrette, Jean-Jacques, Mote, Thomas, Muehle, Jens, Muehr, Bernhard, Mullan, A. Brett, Mueller, Rolf, Nash, Eric R., Nerem, R. Steven, Newlin, Michele L., Newman, Paul A., Ng Ongolo, H., Nieto, Juan Jose, Nishino, S., Nitsche, Helga, Noetzli, Jeannette, Oberman, N. G., Obregon, Andre, Ogallo, Laban A., Oludhe, Christopher S., Omar, Mohamed I., Overland, James, Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Parinussa, Robert M., Park, Geun-Ha, Park, E-Hyung, David Berry, Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-Ramirez, Reynaldo, Pelto, Mauri S., Penalba, Olga, Peng, L., Perovich, Don K., Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, David, Pickart, R., Pinty, Bernard, Pitts, Michael C., Purkey, Sarah G., Quegan, Shaun, Quintana, Juan, Rabe, B., Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh, Raholijao, Nirivololona, Raiva, I., Rajeevan, Madhavan, Ramiandrisoa, Voahanginirina, Ramos, Alexandre, Ranivoarissoa, Sahondra, Rayner, Nick A., Rayner, Darren, Razuveav, Vyacheslav N., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Renwick, James, Revedekar, Jayashree, Richter-Menge, Jacqueline, Rivera, Ingrid L., Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Sabine, Christopher L., Salvador, Mozar A., Sanchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sasgen, I., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Schauer, U., Schemm, Jae, Schlosser, P., Schmid, Claudia, Schreck, Carl, Semiletov, Igor, Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Setzer, Alberto, Severinghaus, Jeffrey, Shakhova, Natalia, Sharp, M., Shiklomanov, Nicolai I., Siegel, David A., Silva, Viviane B. S., Silva, Frabricio D. S., Sima, Fatou, Simeonov, Petio, Simmonds, I., Simmons, Adrian, Skansi, Maria, Smeed, David A., Smethie, W. M., Smith, Adam B., Smith, Cathy, Smith, Sharon L., Smith, Thomas M., Sokolov, V., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Steele, M., Steffen, Konrad, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stephenson, Tannecia, Su, J., Svendby, T., Sweet, William, Takahashi, Taro, Tanabe, Raymond M., Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, Marco, Teng, William L., Thepaut, Jean-Noel, Thiaw, Wassila M., Thoman, R., Thompson, Philip, Thorne, Peter W., Timmermans, M. -L, Tobin, Skie, Toole, J., Trewin, Blair C., Trigo, Ricardo M., Trotman, Adrian, Tschudi, M., Wal, Roderik S. W., Werf, Guido R., Vautard, Robert, Vazquez, J. L., Vieira, Goncalo, Vincent, Lucie, Vose, Russ S., Wagner, Wolfgang W., Wahr, John, Walsh, J., Wang Junhong, Wang Chunzai, Wang, M., Wang Sheng-Hung, Wang Lei, Wanninkhof, Rik, Weaver, Scott, Weber, Mark, Werdell, P. Jeremy, Whitewood, Robert, Wijffels, Susan, Wilber, Anne C., Wild, J. D., Willett, Kate M., Williams, W., Willis, Joshua K., Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Woodgate, R., Worthy, D., Wouters, B., Wovrosh, Alex J., Xue Yan, Yamada, Ryuji, Yin Zungang, Yu Lisan, Zhang Liangying, Zhang Peiqun, Zhao Lin, Zhao, J., Zhong, W., Ziemke, Jerry, Zimmermann, S., ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 13. Climate action, Photosynthetically active radiation, Climate, Dynamics (mechanics), Data_FILES, Environmental science, Fraction (chemistry), 14. Life underwater, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Remote sensing
Abstract

For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.

Published
2013
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5. STRATOSPHERIC OZONE.

Author

Weber, M., Steinbrecht, W ., Roth, C., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Degenstein, D., Fioletov, Y. E., Frith, S. M., Froidevaux, L., de Laat, J., Long, C. S., Loyola, D., and Wild, J. D.

Subjects
OZONE layer, OZONE layer depletion, PRECIPITATION anomalies, VIENNA Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer (1985). Protocols, etc., 1987 Sept. 15
Abstract

The article offers information on the condition of the stratospheric ozone in 2015. It mentions strong negative anomalies at high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere which reflects the Antarctic ozone hole being observed from September-December. It discusses the benefits provided by the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments on the stratospheric ozone wherein it stops the multidecadal decline of the ozone.

Published
2016

9. 4) STRATOSPHERIC OZONE.

Author

Weber, M., Steinbrecht, W., van der A., R., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Fioletov, V. E., Frith, S. M., Long, C. S., Loyola, D., and Wild, J. D.

Subjects
ATMOSPHERIC ozone, STRATOSPHERE, OZONE layer, ATMOSPHERIC sciences, CLIMATOLOGY
Abstract

The article reports on the annual mean total stratospheric ozone values in 2013. Topics discussed include the positive anomalies in the Earth's polar regions, the significant negative anomalies recorded in the North Pacific near the Aleutian Islands, and the ozone amounts during the winter and spring seasons.

Published
2014

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