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In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5-10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080-2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5-10 %) compared with a decrease of 0-20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5-10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both re-analysis data and a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080-2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region in the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5-10 %) compared with a decrease of 0-20% in the outer shelf, central and northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review mechanisms and studies of exchange between the north-east Atlantic and the adjacent shelf seas. Well-developed summer upwelling and associated filaments off Portugal and north-west Spain give exchange O(3 m²/s per unit length of shelf). Prevailing westerly winds further north drive exchange O(1m²/s). Poleward flow along most of the upper slope has associated secondary circulation O(1m2/s), meanders and eddies. Eddies are shed from slope waters into the Bay of Biscay, and local exchanges occur at shelf spurs and depressions or canyons (e.g. dense-water cascading of order 1m²/s). Tidal transports are larger, but their reversal every six hours makes exchange largely ineffective except where internal tides are large and non-linear, as in the Celtic Sea where solitons carry water with exchange O(1m²/s). These various physical exchanges amount to an estimated 2-3m²/s per unit length of shelf, between ocean and shelf. A numerical model estimate is comparable: 2.5x106 m³/s onto and off the shelf from Brittany to Norway. Mixing controls the seasonal thermocline, affecting primary production and hence fluxes and fate of organic matter. Specifically, CO2 take-up by primary production, settling below the thermocline before respiration, and then off-shelf transport, make an effective shelf-sea "pump" (for CO2 from the atmosphere to the deep ocean). However, knowledge of biogeochemical fluxes is generally sparse, giving scope for more measurements, model validation and estimates from models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]