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Global biodiversity is projected to further decline under a wide range of future socio-economic development pathways, even in sustainability oriented scenarios. This raises the question how biodiversity can be put on a path to recovery, the core challenge for the CBD post-2020 global biodiversity framework. We designed two contrasting, ambitious global conservation strategies, ‘Half Earth’ (HE) and ‘Sharing the Planet’ (SP), and evaluated their ability to restore terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and to provide ecosystem services while also mitigating climate change and ensuring food security. We applied the integrated assessment framework IMAGE with the GLOBIO biodiversity model, using the ‘Middle of the Road’ Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) with its projected human population growth as baseline.We found that both conservation strategies result in a reduction in the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services globally, but without additional measures to achieve effective climate mitigation they will be insufficient to restore biodiversity. The HE strategy performs better for terrestrial biodiversity protection (biodiversity intactness (MSA), Red List Index, geometric mean abundance) in currently still natural regions, reflecting global conservation priorities. The SP strategy yields more improvements for biodiversity in human-used areas, aquatic biodiversity and for regulating ecosystem services (pest control, pollination, erosion control), reflecting regional priorities. However, ‘conservation only’ scenarios show a considerable increase in food security risks (especially in Sub-Saharan Africa) compared to the baseline and limited reduction of global temperature increase. Only when conservation strategies are combined with climate change mitigation efforts and additional actions especially in the agricultural and energy system into a portfolio of ‘integrated sustainability measures’, both conservation strategies result in restoring biodiversity to current values or even some improvement, while keeping global warming below two degrees and keeping food security risks below baseline. Minimizing food wastes and reducing consumption of animal products will be crucial

The pressure on land is growing in many regions of the world, due to the increasing demand for arable crops, meat and dairy products, bio-energy and timber, and is exacerbated by land degradation and climate change. This policy report provides scenario projections for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook, exploring future changes to the use and condition of land and the resulting impacts on food, water, climate change and biodiversity.

This report presents a global integrated assessment of the range of potential economic impacts of climate change and stringent mitigation measures in the agricultural sector. The analysis employs five global multi-region multi-commodity models and covers selected combinations of socioeconomic storylines and climate signals by mid-century. Model inputs are harmonised by using the same projections for population and GDP growth, as well as relative biophysical crop yield changes due to climate change. Model results can differ depending on model characteristics and the specific quantitative implementations of the socioeconomic storylines., JRC.D.4-Economics of Agriculture

The REDD policy which preserves, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness, agricultural prices, trade, production and food security the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.5%.

The paper examines the economic effects of expected changes in temperatures and precipitation on the trade of ten major food crops. The relative effects for developing versus developed countries are emphasized. A series of econometric models using panel data and autoregressive integrated moving average models are used to estimate and forecast relationships between yields and weather data, the results of which are used as input into MAGNET, a global computerized general equilibrium modeling framework. Econometric results show that average temperatures have increased across all areas growing major food crops. Results for precipitation are ambiguous, however, there is statistical evidence of two distinct periods, a first in which, on average, precipitation fell, followed by a second in which it increased. Results for crops with statistically significant estimates show that increasing temperatures have negatively affected yields.These results hold for both poor and rich countries, however, the degree to which yields are reduced is crop specific and sensitive to a country’s level of wealth. MAGNET results show that changes in weather are likely to have significant effects on the production, trade, and, in some cases, the consumption of major food crops.

In 2012, the European Commission (EC) launched the Bioeconomy Strategy and Action Plan with the objective of establishing a resource efficient and competitive society that reconciles food security with the sustainable use of renewable resources. This report contributes to the plan by evaluating the macroeconomic impacts of bio-based applications in the EU. Such effects can only be evaluated with a computable general equilibrium model such as MAGNET. Four bio-based applications are considered, namely biofuel (second generation), biochemicals, bioelectricity, and biogas (synthetic natural gas). This is done assuming that 1 EJ lignocellulose biomass is converted into fuel, chemicals, electricity and gas and that the final product replaces an equal amount of conventional (e.g. fossil energy) product (on energy basis). The results show that given the assumed efficiency of conversion technology, costs of conversion, biomass price and oil price, the production of second generation biofuel and biochemicals are the only competitive sectors compare to their conventional counterparts in the year 2030 for the EU. In the case of the fuel sectors, it represents a net GDP effect of 5.1 billion US dollars while biochemicals generates 6 billion US dollars. A substantial part of this impact can be explained by the increase in wages, since the production of biomass is relatively labour intensive. The resulting increase in wages is transmitted to other sectors in the economy and increases production and consumption. Another important contributor is the lower oil and fuel price as a result of the substitution of oil based fuel production by bio-based fuel production, which in turn benefits the entire economy

We develop a methodology for incorporating nutrition impacts in economy-wide analyses, providing entry points for where, when and how to act. It accounts for three channels of consumption, directly via primary commodities and indirectly via processed foods and food-related services, and produces indicators showing content by nutrient (currently calories, proteins, fats and carbohydrates), channel, source region and sector. The paper applies the framework in a CGE model (MAGNET) and uses FAO data to project nutritional outcomes resulting from the global food system over time. The analysis confirms that developing regions catch up with developed regions, with the USA at the high-end of nutrient consumption, whilst Southern Africa lags behind. In the USA the processed food channel dominates, whereas in Southern Africa the direct channel dominates. In the USA, and similar regions, fat taxes (thin subsidies) on unhealthy (healthy) processed foods, technologies reducing bad ingredients (e.g. trans fats, salt), improved food labelling, information and marketing campaigns, and/or targeted cash transfers may be worthwhile to investigate. In Southern Africa, and regions alike, technological advances increasing nutrient availability via primary agriculture and/or cash transfers enabling access may be more pertinent. The relative fixedness of sectoral origins shows that consumption habits change slowly and are visible only in the long term. For certain regions, including Southern Africa and USA, nutrient import dependency increases with substantial variations in regional sourcing. This implies that concerted action across the globe is crucial to reach diet, nutrition and health goals, and should include upcoming Asian economies, Africa (excl. Southern Africa) and the Middle East. Heterogeneity of results necessitates future ex-ante quantitative policy analyses on a more detailed and context-specific basis.

One objective of Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models is the analysis of economywideeffects of policy measures. The focus of the Factor Markets project is to analyse thefunctioning of factor markets for agriculture in the EU-27, including the CandidateCountries. While agricultural and food markets are fully integrated in a European singlemarket, subject to an EU-wide common policy, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), this isnot the case for the agricultural factor markets capital, labour and land. There are partlyserious differences with regard to member state regulations and institutions affecting land,labour and capital markets. The presentation of this heterogeneity of factor markets amongstEU Member States have been implemented in the CGE models to improve model-basedanalyses of the CAP and other policy measures affecting agricultural production.This final report comprises the outcome of a systematic extension and improvement of theModular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET) model starting from an overview ofthe current state of the art to represent factor markets in CGE models to a description ofwork on labour, land and capital in MAGNET.

This paper develops an innovative approach for calculating household nutrition indicators in a Computable General Equilibrium framework, using the flow of primary agri-food commodities through the global economy from farm to fork. It has been incorporated as a nutrition module in MAGNET. The method of tracing nutrients through the food system allows for making agriculture, the food supply chain and the economy as a whole nutrition-sensitive in scenario analyses. The validation of the nutrition outcomes in the base year with global data on nutrient consumption from the FAO reveals important differences which stem from differences in data and assumptions. Various solutions are identified to improve the calculations in the future. In the short run, correction factors are applied in the calculation of indicators in the nutrition module to capture and adjust the methodology for the remaining differences.

Deliverable D.7.1 Description of a coupled macroeconomic, multi-sector analysis at global scale with first simulation results and D.7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments are now available. These deliverables should be seen and read in together. D.7.1 describes results for 4 marker scenarios from the global models in the topdown analysis in WP7, which provide the boundary conditions for in-depth analysis at the level of EU-27, individual member countries as well as sub-national levels while D7.2 presents selected results from the linked modelling system. The 4 marker scenarios will also provide a starting point for a larger number of policy scenarios to be analyzed in the next steps of the VOLANTE project. The VOLANTE top-down modelling framework has been developed to serve the stakeholder discussions and roadmapping in module Visions by adequate information that can fuel discussions and provide quantitative assessments to support the final roadmapping exercise. Selected scenario results have already been used in 4 visions workshops which have been conducted by Module Visions in June and September 2012.

This paper assesses the complex interplay between global Renewable Energy Directives (RED) and the United Nations programme to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD). The interaction of the two policies is examined using a scenario approach with a recursive-dynamic global Computable General Equilibrium model. The consequences of a global biofuel directive on worldwide land use, agricultural production, international trade flows, food prices and food security out to 2030 are evaluated with and without a strict global REDD policy.

This paper analyses the consequences of enhanced biofuel production in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers biofuel policies implemented as binding blending targets for transportation fuels. The chosen quantitative modelling approach is two-fold: it combines the analysis of biofuel policies in a multi-sectoral economic model (MAGNET) with systematic variation of the functioning of capital and labour markets.This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the application multi-sectoral modelling system with different assumptions on the mobility of factor markets allows for the observation of changes in economic indicators under different conditions of how factor markets work.Systematic variation of factor mobility indicates that the ‘burden’ of global biofuel policies is not equally distributed across different factors within agricultural production. Agricultural land, as the pre-dominant and sector-specific factor, is, regardless of different degrees of inter-sectoral or intra-sectoral factor mobility, the most important factor limiting the expansion of agricultural production. More capital and higher employment in agriculture will ease the pressure on additional land use – but only partly. To expand agricultural production at global scale requires both land and mobile factors adapted to increase total factor productivity in agriculture in the most efficient way.

Estimates for deforestation and forest degradation were shown to account for about 17% of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD is suggested to provide substantial emission reductions at low costs. Proper calculation of such a costs requires integrated modeling approach involving biophysical impact calculations and estimation economic effects of these.However, only few global modeling studies concerning this issue exist, and the actual implementation can take many forms. This study uses the approach of assuming that non Annex-I countries protect carbon rich areas from deforestation, and therefore loose the opportunity to use it as agricultural area. The opportunity costs of reducing deforestation within the framework of REDD are assessed with the global economic model LEITAP and the biophysical model IMAGE. A key methodological challenge is the representation of land use and the possibility to convert forestry land into agricultural land as REDD policies might prevent the use of forest for agriculture. We endogenize availability of agricultural land by introducing a flexible land supply curve and proxy the implementation of the REDD policies as a shift in the asymptote of this curve representing maximal agricultural land availability in various regions in the world. In a series of experiments, increasingly more carbon rich areas are protected from deforestation, the associated costs in terms of GDP reduction are calculated with the economic model. The associated reduction in CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by the IMAGE model. From this series of experiments, abatement cost curves, relating CO2 emission reduction to costs of this reduction, are constructed. The results show that globally a maximum CO2 reduction of around 2.5 Gt could be achieved. However, regional differences are large, ranging from about 0 to 3.2 USD per ton CO2 in Africa, 2 to 9 USD in South and Central America, and 20 to 60 USD in Southeast Asia

This paper analyses the complex battle between RED and REDD policies and the resulting global consequences on land use, agricultural production, international trade flows and world food prices. A key methodological challenge is the representation of land use and the possibility to convert forestry land into agricultural land as REDD policies might prevent the use of forestry and wood lands for agriculture. The paper introduces a flexible land supply function allowing large changes in the total potential land availability for agriculture due to environmental considerations such as reducing emissions from deforestation. The parameters of the new land supply function are defined as variables of the model. In the paper, we simplify the implementation of the REDD policies as a shift in potential availability for agricultural land in various regions in the world. Both analysed policies are designed to save emissions but their land use impacts are opposite. The paper shows that global RED policies expand global land use with 3% relative to the baseline. Land abundant countries such as Canada, USA and Indonesia extend their use of agricultural land and their agricultural production. Severe REDD policies that protect all forest and woodlands in especially tropical land abundant regions such as Central and South America, South Africa and Indonesia imply a global reduction of agricultural land by 5% and lead to higher food and land prices. REDD policies reverse production and trade patterns as previous land abundant countries become land scarce countries.

This Macro-economic Impact Study (MES) provides quantitative insights into the macro-economic effects of introducing green, palmbased alternatives for electricity, fuels, chemicals and materials industries in Malaysia between now and 2030. Deze macro-economische impactstudie (MES) biedt kwantitatieve inzichten in de macro-economische effecten van de invoering tussen nu en 2030 van groene, op palmolie gebaseerde alternatieven voor de productie van elektriciteit, brandstoffen, chemicaliën en materialen in Maleisië.

Deliverable D.7.1 Description of a coupled macroeconomic, multi-sector analysis at global scale with first simulation results and D.7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments are now available. These deliverables should be seen and read in together. D.7.1 describes results for 4 marker scenarios from the global models in the topdown analysis in WP7, which provide the boundary conditions for in-depth analysis at the level of EU-27, individual member countries as well as sub-national levels while D7.2 presents selected results from the linked modelling system. The 4 marker scenarios will also provide a starting point for a larger number of policy scenarios to be analyzed in the next steps of the VOLANTE project. The VOLANTE top-down modelling framework has been developed to serve the stakeholder discussions and roadmapping in module Visions by adequate information that can fuel discussions and provide quantitative assessments to support the final roadmapping exercise. Selected scenario results have already been used in 4 visions workshops which have been conducted by Module Visions in June and September 2012.

Het verlies van biodiversiteit kan worden gereduceerd en de voedselveiligheid kan worden verbeterd door maatregelen toe te passen om de opbrengst te verhogen en het verlies van voedsel te beperken. De wereldwijde vrag naar landbouwproducten zal toenemen om aan grotere vraag als gevolg van meer welvaart en de bevolkingsgroei te kunnen blijven voldoen. De focus ligt op Brazilië, Indonesië en Midden-Afrika

Following the paradigm for reforming the current CAP, the first objective of this study is to give insights into the economic impact of post-2013 CAP measures at different levels of aggregation (e.g. EU, Member State and region). The post-2013 CAP measures included are directed towards income for the farmers, competitiveness, valuable areas and ecosystem services. The second objective is to analyse the impact of a scenario that combines the above mentioned post-2013 CAP measures. This study can be seen as a first attempt to quantify the transition to a CAP with more targeted measures at the European level and reveals considerable methodological and data challenges. A key finding is that the impact of the various measures is very different with regard to various economic indicators.

The paper investigates the CAP impacts on the EU agriculture by means of policy simulations conducted with the AGMEMOD model. To isolate the policy effects in the historical period 2000-2005, counterfactual simulations for this period are run. To simulate the response of the EU agriculture on different policy changes in the period 2006-2020, a ‘no-policy change’ baseline scenario is developed and then policy experiments are conducted such as the abolition of milk quota, the implementation of the regional payments and some budget cuts. To identify the policy effects, the policy scenarios are compared with the ‘no-policy change’ baseline.

This report is the conclusion of research undertaken to better understand the impact of the developing biobased economy on agricultural land markets. This has involved understanding the true dimension of the biobased economy, namely the large range of products for which a biobased component exists or could exist, and in this regard the likely evolution in the substitution of elements produced from fossil oil. This research is also a first step to determine whether the overall result of the development of the biobased economy will be positive, negative or neutral for the Dutch economy as a whole. Dit rapport vormt de conclusie van een onderzoek dat is uitgevoerd om meer inzicht te krijgen in de bio-economie die zich aan het ontwikkelen is op de markten voor landbouwgrond. Het ging onder andere om inzicht in de ware omvang van de bio-economie, dat wil zeggen: het grote aanbod aan producten die gedeeltelijk uit biomassa bestaan of kunnen bestaan, en in dat verband de te verwachten ontwikkeling dat elementen die uit fossiele oliën zijn geproduceerd, worden vervangen. Dit onderzoek is bovendien een eerste stap om te bepalen of het resultaat van de ontwikkeling van een bio-economie over het geheel genomen positief, negatief of neutraal zal zijn voor de totale Nederlandse economie.

Mondiale ecosystemen staan zwaar onder druk. Het beschermen van waardevolle natuurgebieden is niet voldoende om de afname van de biodiversiteit te verminderen, maar blijft wel noodzakelijk. Om het tempo van het biodiversiteitverlies fors af te remmen, zijn structurele veranderingen in consumptie en productie nodig. Er valt veel winst te behalen bij vermindering van de vleesconsumptie. Daarnaast zijn vooral in de land- en bosbouw, visserij en energievoorziening veranderingen nodig. Het Planbureau identificeert nieuwe strategieën voor VN-top in Nagoya