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Black carbon (BC) emissions play an important role in regional climate change in the Arctic. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of long-range transport from regions outside the Arctic as BC emissions from local sources in the Arctic were relatively small. The task force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) set up a series of simulation scenarios to investigate the response of BC in a given region to different source regions. This study investigated the responses of Arctic BC concentrations and surface temperature to 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions from six regions in 2010 within the framework of HTAP2 based on ensemble modeling results. Emission reductions from East Asia (EAS) had the most (monthly contributions: 0.2–1.5 ng m−3) significant impact on the Arctic near-surface BC concentrations, while the monthly contributions from Europe (EUR), Middle East (MDE), North America (NAM), Russia–Belarus–Ukraine (RBU), and South Asia (SAS) were 0.2–1.0, 0.001–0.01, 0.1–0.3, 0.1–0.7, and 0.0–0.2 ng m−3, respectively. The responses of the vertical profiles of the Arctic BC to the six regions were found to be different due to multiple transport pathways. Emission reductions from NAM, RBU, EUR, and EAS mainly influenced the BC concentrations in the low troposphere of the Arctic, while most of the BC in the upper troposphere of the Arctic derived from SAS. The response of the Arctic BC to emission reductions in six source regions became less significant with the increase in the latitude. The benefit of BC emission reductions in terms of slowing down surface warming in the Arctic was evaluated by using absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP). Compared to the response of global temperature to BC emission reductions, the response of Arctic temperature was substantially more sensitive, highlighting the need for curbing global BC emissions.

Horizontal grid resolution has a profound effect on model performances on meteorology and air quality simulations. In contribution to MICS-Asia Phase III, one of whose goals was to identify and reduce model uncertainty in air quality prediction, this study examined the impact of grid resolution on meteorology and air quality simulation over East Asia, focusing on the North China Plain (NCP) region. The NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model has been applied with the horizontal resolutions at 45, 15, and 5 km. The results revealed that, in comparison with ground observations, no single resolution can yield the best model performance for all variables across all stations. From a regional average perspective (i.e., across all monitoring sites), air temperature modeling was not sensitive to the grid resolution but wind and precipitation simulation showed the opposite. NU-WRF with the 5 km grid simulated the wind speed best, while the 45 km grid yielded the most realistic precipitation as compared to the site observations. For air quality simulations, finer resolution generally led to better comparisons with observations for O3, CO, NOx, and PM2.5. However, the improvement of model performance on air quality was not linear with the resolution increase. The accuracy of modeled surface O3 of the 15 km grid was greatly improved over the one from the 45 km grid. A further increase in grid resolution to 5 km, however, showed diminished impact on model performance improvement on O3 prediction. In addition, a 5 km resolution grid showed large advantage in better capturing the frequency of high-pollution occurrences. This was important for the assessment of noncompliance with ambient air quality standards, which was key to air quality planning and management. Balancing the modeling accuracy and resource limitation, a 15 km grid resolution was suggested for future MICS-Asia air quality modeling activity if the research region remained unchanged. This investigation also found a large overestimate of ground-level O3 and an underestimate of surface NOx and CO, likely due to missing emissions of NOx and CO.

Aerosols from biomass burning (BB) emissions are poorly constrained in global and regional models, resulting in a high level of uncertainty in understanding their impacts. In this study, we compared six BB aerosol emission datasets for 2008 globally as well as in 14 regions. The six BB emission datasets are (1) GFED3.1 (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3.1), (2) GFED4s (GFED version 4 with small fires), (3) FINN1.5 (FIre INventory from NCAR version 1.5), (4) GFAS1.2 (Global Fire Assimilation System version 1.2), (5) FEER1.0 (Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0), and (6) QFED2.4 (Quick Fire Emissions Dataset version 2.4). The global total emission amounts from these six BB emission datasets differed by a factor of 3.8, ranging from 13.76 to 51.93 Tg for organic carbon and from 1.65 to 5.54 Tg for black carbon. In most of the regions, QFED2.4 and FEER1.0, which are based on satellite observations of fire radiative power (FRP) and constrained by aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), yielded higher BB aerosol emissions than the rest by a factor of 2–4. By comparison, the BB aerosol emissions estimated from GFED4s and GFED3.1, which are based on satellite burned-area data, without AOD constraints, were at the low end of the range. In order to examine the sensitivity of model-simulated AOD to the different BB emission datasets, we ingested these six BB emission datasets separately into the same global model, the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, and compared the simulated AOD with observed AOD from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) in the 14 regions during 2008. In Southern Hemisphere Africa (SHAF) and South America (SHSA), where aerosols tend to be clearly dominated by smoke in September, the simulated AOD values were underestimated in almost all experiments compared to MISR, except for the QFED2.4 run in SHSA. The model-simulated AOD values based on FEER1.0 and QFED2.4 were the closest to the corresponding AERONET data, being, respectively, about 73 % and 100 % of the AERONET observed AOD at Alta Floresta in SHSA and about 49 % and 46 % at Mongu in SHAF. The simulated AOD based on the other four BB emission datasets accounted for only ∼50 % of the AERONET AOD at Alta Floresta and ∼20 % at Mongu. Overall, during the biomass burning peak seasons, at most of the selected AERONET sites in each region, the AOD values simulated with QFED2.4 were the highest and closest to AERONET and MISR observations, followed closely by FEER1.0. However, the QFED2.4 run tends to overestimate AOD in the region of SHSA, and the QFED2.4 BB emission dataset is tuned with the GEOS model. In contrast, the FEER1.0 BB emission dataset is derived in a more model-independent fashion and is more physically based since its emission coefficients are independently derived at each grid box. Therefore, we recommend the FEER1.0 BB emission dataset for aerosol-focused hindcast experiments in the two biomass-burning-dominated regions in the Southern Hemisphere, SHAF, and SHSA (as well as in other regions but with lower confidence). The differences between these six BB emission datasets are attributable to the approaches and input data used to derive BB emissions, such as whether AOD from satellite observations is used as a constraint, whether the approaches to parameterize the fire activities are based on burned area, FRP, or active fire count, and which set of emission factors is chosen.

Ambient air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter is associated with premature mortality. As emissions from one continent influence air quality over others, changes in emissions can also influence human health on other continents. We estimate global air-pollution-related premature mortality from exposure to PM2.5 and ozone and the avoided deaths due to 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions from six source regions, North America (NAM), Europe (EUR), South Asia (SAS), East Asia (EAS), Russia–Belarus–Ukraine (RBU), and the Middle East (MDE), three global emission sectors, power and industry (PIN), ground transportation (TRN), and residential (RES), and one global domain (GLO), using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF HTAP2), and epidemiologically derived concentration response functions. We build on results from previous studies of TF HTAP by using improved atmospheric models driven by new estimates of 2010 anthropogenic emissions (excluding methane), with more source and receptor regions, new consideration of source sector impacts, and new epidemiological mortality functions. We estimate 290 000 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 30 000, 600 000) premature O3-related deaths and 2.8 million (0.5 million, 4.6 million) PM2.5-related premature deaths globally for the baseline year 2010. While 20 % emission reductions from one region generally lead to more avoided deaths within the source region than outside, reducing emissions from MDE and RBU can avoid more O3-related deaths outside of these regions than within, and reducing MDE emissions also avoids more PM2.5-related deaths outside of MDE than within. Our findings that most avoided O3-related deaths from emission reductions in NAM and EUR occur outside of those regions contrast with those of previous studies, while estimates of PM2.5-related deaths from NAM, EUR, SAS, and EAS emission reductions agree well. In addition, EUR, MDE, and RBU have more avoided O3-related deaths from reducing foreign emissions than from domestic reductions. For six regional emission reductions, the total avoided extra-regional mortality is estimated as 6000 (−3400, 15 500) deaths per year and 25 100 (8200, 35 800) deaths per year through changes in O3 and PM2.5, respectively. Interregional transport of air pollutants leads to more deaths through changes in PM2.5 than in O3, even though O3 is transported more on interregional scales, since PM2.5 has a stronger influence on mortality. For NAM and EUR, our estimates of avoided mortality from regional and extra-regional emission reductions are comparable to those estimated by regional models for these same experiments. In sectoral emission reductions, TRN emissions account for the greatest fraction (26–53 % of global emission reduction) of O3-related premature deaths in most regions, in agreement with previous studies, except for EAS (58 %) and RBU (38 %) where PIN emissions dominate. In contrast, PIN emission reductions have the greatest fraction (38–78 % of global emission reduction) of PM2.5-related deaths in most regions, except for SAS (45 %) where RES emission dominates, which differs with previous studies in which RES emissions dominate global health impacts. The spread of air pollutant concentration changes across models contributes most to the overall uncertainty in estimated avoided deaths, highlighting the uncertainty in results based on a single model. Despite uncertainties, the health benefits of reduced intercontinental air pollution transport suggest that international cooperation may be desirable to mitigate pollution transported over long distances.

This study uses multi-model ensemble results of 11 models from the second phase of Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP II) to calculate the global sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition in 2010. Modeled wet deposition is evaluated with observation networks in North America, Europe and East Asia. The modeled results agree well with observations, with 76–83 % of stations being predicted within ±50 % of observations. The models underestimate SO42−, NO3− and NH4+ wet depositions in some European and East Asian stations but overestimate NO3− wet deposition in the eastern United States. Intercomparison with previous projects (PhotoComp, ACCMIP and HTAP I) shows that HTPA II has considerably improved the estimation of deposition at European and East Asian stations. Modeled dry deposition is generally higher than the inferential data calculated by observed concentration and modeled velocity in North America, but the inferential data have high uncertainty, too. The global S deposition is 84 Tg(S) in 2010, with 49 % in continental regions and 51 % in the ocean (19 % of which coastal). The global N deposition consists of 59 Tg(N) oxidized nitrogen (NOy) deposition and 64 Tg(N) reduced nitrogen (NHx) deposition in 2010. About 65 % of N is deposited in continental regions, and 35 % in the ocean (15 % of which coastal). The estimated outflow of pollution from land to ocean is about 4 Tg(S) for S deposition and 18 Tg(N) for N deposition. Comparing our results to the results in 2001 from HTAP I, we find that the global distributions of S and N deposition have changed considerably during the last 10 years. The global S deposition decreases 2 Tg(S) (3 %) from 2001 to 2010, with significant decreases in Europe (5 Tg(S) and 55 %), North America (3 Tg(S) and 29 %) and Russia (2 Tg(S) and 26 %), and increases in South Asia (2 Tg(S) and 42 %) and the Middle East (1 Tg(S) and 44 %). The global N deposition increases by 7 Tg(N) (6 %), mainly contributed by South Asia (5 Tg(N) and 39 %), East Asia (4 Tg(N) and 21 %) and Southeast Asia (2 Tg(N) and 21 %). The NHx deposition increases with no control policy on NH3 emission in North America. On the other hand, NOy deposition has started to dominate in East Asia (especially China) due to boosted NOx emission.

In the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) exercise, a range of global atmospheric general circulation and chemical transport models performed coordinated perturbation experiments with 20 % reductions in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, or aerosol precursors, in a number of source regions. Here, we compare the resulting changes in the atmospheric load and vertically resolved profiles of black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA) and sulfate (SO4) from 10 models that include treatment of aerosols. We use a set of temporally, horizontally and vertically resolved profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE) to estimate the impact of emission changes in six major source regions on global radiative forcing (RF) pertaining to the direct aerosol effect, finding values between. 51.9 and 210.8 mW m−2 Tg−1 for BC, between −2.4 and −17.9 mW m−2 Tg−1 for OA and between −3.6 and −10.3 W m−2 Tg−1 for SO4. In most cases, the local influence dominates, but results show that mitigations in south and east Asia have substantial impacts on the radiative budget in all investigated receptor regions, especially for BC. In Russia and the Middle East, more than 80 % of the forcing for BC and OA is due to extra-regional emission reductions. Similarly, for North America, BC emissions control in east Asia is found to be more important than domestic mitigations, which is consistent with previous findings. Comparing fully resolved RF calculations to RF estimates based on vertically averaged AFE profiles allows us to quantify the importance of vertical resolution to RF estimates. We find that locally in the source regions, a 20 % emission reduction strengthens the radiative forcing associated with SO4 by 25 % when including the vertical dimension, as the AFE for SO4 is strongest near the surface. Conversely, the local RF from BC weakens by 37 % since BC AFE is low close to the ground. The fraction of BC direct effect forcing attributable to intercontinental transport, on the other hand, is enhanced by one-third when accounting for the vertical aspect, because long-range transport primarily leads to aerosol changes at high altitudes, where the BC AFE is strong. While the surface temperature response may vary with the altitude of aerosol change, the analysis in the present study is not extended to estimates of temperature or precipitation changes.

Ambient air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter is associated with premature mortality. As emissions from one continent influence air quality over others, changes in emissions can also influence human health on other continents. We estimate global air pollution-related premature mortality from exposure to PM 2.5 and ozone, and the avoided deaths from 20% anthropogenic emission reductions from six source regions, North America (NAM), Europe (EUR), South Asia (SAS), East Asia (EAS), Russia/Belarus/Ukraine (RBU) and the Middle East (MDE), three global emission sectors, Power and Industry (PIN), Ground Transportation (TRN) and Residential (RES) and one global domain (GLO), using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2), and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We build on results from previous studies of the TF-HTAP by using improved atmospheric models driven by new estimates of 2010 anthropogenic emissions (excluding methane), with more source and receptor regions, new consideration of source sector impacts, and new epidemiological mortality functions. We estimate 290,000 (95% CI: 30,000, 600,000) premature O 3 -related deaths and 2.8 million (0.5 million, 4.6 million) PM 2.5 -related premature deaths globally for the baseline year 2010. While 20% emission reductions from one region generally lead to more avoided deaths within the source region than outside, reducing emissions from MDE and RBU can avoid more O 3 -related deaths outside of these regions than within, and reducing MDE emissions also avoids more PM 2.5 -related deaths outside of MDE than within. Our findings that most avoided O 3 -related deaths from emission reductions in NAM and EUR occur outside of those regions contrast with those of previous studies, while estimates of PM 2.5 -related deaths from NAM, EUR, SAS and EAS emission reductions agree well. In addition, EUR, MDE and RBU have more avoided O 3 -related deaths from reducing foreign emissions than from domestic reductions. For six regional emission reductions, the total avoided extra-regional mortality is estimated as 6,000 (-3,400, 15,500) deaths/year and 25,100 (8,200, 35,800) deaths/year through changes in O 3 and PM 2.5 , respectively. Interregional transport of air pollutants leads to more deaths through changes in PM 2.5 than in O 3 , even though O 3 is transported more on interregional scales, since PM 2.5 has a stronger influence on mortality. For NAM and EUR, our estimates of avoided mortality from regional and extra-regional emission reductions are comparable to those estimated by regional models for these same experiments. In sectoral emission reductions, TRN emissions account for the greatest fraction (26-53% of global emission reduction) of O 3 -related premature deaths in most regions, in agreement with previous studies, except for EAS (58%) and RBU (38%) where PIN emissions dominate. In contrast, PIN emission reductions have the greatest fraction (38-78% of global emission reduction) of PM 2.5 -related deaths in most regions, except for SAS (45%) where RES emission dominates, which differs with previous studies in which RES emissions dominate global health impacts. The spread of air pollutant concentration changes across models contributes most to the overall uncertainty in estimated avoided deaths, highlighting the uncertainty in results based on a single model. Despite uncertainties, the health benefits of reduced intercontinental air pollution transport suggest that international cooperation may be desirable to mitigate pollution transported over long distances.