Search

In this article, we present the application of the weighted horizontal gradient of magnetic field (WG_M) flare prediction method to 3-dimensional (3D) extrapolated magnetic configurations of 13 flaring solar active regions (ARs). The main aim is to identify an optimal height range, if any, in the interface region between the photosphere and lower corona, where the flare onset time prediction capability of WGM is best exploited. The optimal height is where flare prediction, by means of the WG_M method, is achieved earlier than at the photospheric level. 3D magnetic structures, based on potential and non-linear force-free field extrapolations, are constructed to study a vertical range from the photosphere up to the low corona with a 45 km step size. The WG_M method is applied as a function of height to all 13 flaring AR cases that are subject to certain selection criteria. We found that applying the WGM method between 1000 and 1800 km above the solar surface would improve the prediction of the flare onset time by around 2-8 hours.Certain caveats and an outlook for future work along these lines are also discussed. ispartof: Astrophysical Journal vol:896 issue:2 status: published

The magnetic flux cancellation on the Sun plays a crucial role in determining the manner in which the net magnetic flux changes in every solar cycle, affecting the large scale evolution of the coronal magnetic fields and heliospheric environment. We investigate, in this paper, the correlation between the solar magnetic flux cancelled at the equator and the solar magnetic flux transported to the poles by comparing the net amount of magnetic flux in the latitude belt 0${^{\circ}}$-5${^{\circ}}$ and 45${^{\circ}}$-60${^{\circ}}$, estimated using synoptic magnetograms from National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak, during Solar Cycles 21-24. We find a good correlation between the net flux in the latitude band 0${^{\circ}}$-5${^{\circ}}$ and 55${^{\circ}}$-60${^{\circ}}$ for the Northern as well as for the Southern hemispheres. However, we find a poor correlation if the net flux for the Northern and Southern hemispheres are considered together. In addition, we investigate the correlation between the net flux cancelled at the equator and the strength of solar polar field at cycle minimum, and find a good correlation between the two. We discuss the implication of the correlation of flux transported across the equator and to the poles that has an important bearing in the estimation of the residual polar cap field strength at the cycle minimum. This can be used a predictive tool for estimating the amplitude of subsequent cycles and we use this to estimate maximum smoothed sunspot numbers of 77$\pm$5 and 85$\pm$5 for the Northern and Southern hemispheres, respectively, for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25., Submitted to Solar Physics Journal (19 Pages, 7 Figures)

The extended minimum of Solar Cycle 23, the extremely quiet solar-wind conditions prevailing, and the mini-maximum of Solar Cycle 24 drew global attention and many authors have since attempted to predict the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, which is predicted to be the third successive weak cycle; it is a unique opportunity to probe the Sun during such quiet periods. Earlier work has established a steady decline, over two decades, in solar photospheric fields at latitudes above $45^{\circ}$ and a similar decline in solar-wind micro-turbulence levels as measured by interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations. However, the relation between the photospheric magnetic fields and those in the low corona/solar-wind are not straightforward. Therefore, in the present article, we have used potential-field source-surface (PFSS) extrapolations to deduce global magnetic-fields using synoptic magnetograms observed with National Solar Observatory (NSO), Kitt Peak, USA (NSO/KP) and Solar Optical Long-term Investigation of the Sun (NSO/SOLIS) instruments during 1975-2018. Furthermore, we have measured the normalized scintillation index [m] using the IPS observations carried out at the Institute of Space Earth Environment Research (ISEE), Japan during 1983-2017. From these observations, we have found that, since the mid-1990s, the magnetic-field over different latitudes at 2.5 $\rm R_{\odot}$ and 10 $\rm R_{\odot}$(extrapolated using PFSS method) has decreased by $\approx 11.3-22.2 \%$. In phase with the declining magnetic-fields, the quantity m also declined by $\approx 23.6 \%$. These observations emphasize the inter-relationship between the global magnetic-field and various turbulence parameters in the solar corona and solar wind., Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physics, 16 pages, 5 Figures, 1 Table

Aims: To investigate solar polar fields during cycle 24, using measurements of solar magnetic fields in the latitude range 55 - 90 degree and 78 - 90 degree, to report a prolonged and unusual hemispheric asymmetry in the polar field reversal pattern in solar cycle 24. Methods: This study was carried out using medium resolution line-of-sight synoptic magnetograms from the magnetic database of the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak (NSO/KP), USA for the period between February 1975 and October 2017, covering solar cycles 21-24 and high-resolution line-of-sight synoptic magnetograms from the Michaelson Doppler Imager instrument onboard the Solar Heliospheric Observatory. Synoptic magnetograms using radial measurements from the Heliospheric Magnetic Imager instrument onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory, covering solar cycle 23 and 24, were also used. Results: We show that the Southern solar hemisphere unambiguously reversed polarity in mid-2013 while the reversal in the field in the Northern solar hemisphere started as early as June 2012, was followed by a sustained period of near-zero field strength lasting until the end of 2014, after which the field began to show a clear rise from its near-zero value. While this study compliments a similar study carried out using microwave brightness measurements (Gopalswamy et al. 2016) which claimed that the field reversal process in cycle 24 was completed by the end of 2015, our results show that the field reversal in cycle 24 was completed earlier i.e. in late 2014. Signatures of this unusual field reversal pattern were also clearly identifiable in the solar wind, using our observations of interplanetary scintillation at 327 MHz which supported our magnetic field observations and confirmed that the field reversal process was completed at the end of 2014., 11 pages, 7 figures, Under review in A&A

Using both wavelet and Fourier analysis, a study has been undertaken of the changes in the quasi-periodic variations in solar photospheric fields in the build-up to one of the deepest solar minima experienced in the past 100 years. This unusual and deep solar minimum occurred between solar cycles 23 and 24. The study, carried out using ground based synoptic magnetograms spanning the period 1975.14 to 2009.86, covered solar cycles 21, 22 and 23. A hemispheric asymmetry in periodicities of the photospheric fields was seen only at latitudes above $\pm45{^{\circ}}$ when the data was divided, based on a wavelet analysis, into two parts: one prior to 1996 and the other after 1996. Furthermore, the hemispheric asymmetry was observed to be confined to the latitude range 45${^{\circ}}$ to 60${^{\circ}}$. This can be attributed to the variations in polar surges that primarily depend on both the emergence of surface magnetic flux and varying solar surface flows. The observed asymmetry when coupled with the fact that both solar fields above $\pm45{^{\circ}}$ and micro-turbulence levels in the inner-heliosphere have been decreasing since the early to mid nineties (Janardhan et al., 2011) suggests that around this time active changes occurred in the solar dynamo that governs the underlying basic processes in the sun. These changes in turn probably initiated the build-up to the very deep solar minimum at the end of the cycle 23. The decline in fields above $\pm45{^{\circ}}$ for well over a solar cycle, would imply that weak polar fields have been generated in the past two successive solar cycles \textit{viz.} cycles 22 and 23. A continuation of this declining trend beyond 22 years, if it occurs, will have serious implications on our current understanding of the solar dynamo., 25 pages, 8 Fiures, Accepted for publication in Solar Physics Journal