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Significance Attaching sensors to crowd-sourced vehicles could provide a cheap and accurate way to monitor air pollution, road quality, and other aspects of a city’s health. But in order for so-called drive-by sensing to be practically useful, the sensor-equipped vehicle fleet needs to have large “sensing power”—that is, it needs to cover a large fraction of a city’s area during a given reference period. Here, we provide an analytic description of the sensing power of taxi fleets, which agrees with empirical data from nine major cities. Our results show taxis’ sensing power is unexpectedly large—in Manhattan; just 10 random taxis cover one-third of street segments daily, which certifies that drive-by sensing can be readily implemented in the real world., Sensors can measure air quality, traffic congestion, and other aspects of urban environments. The fine-grained diagnostic information they provide could help urban managers to monitor a city’s health. Recently, a “drive-by” paradigm has been proposed in which sensors are deployed on third-party vehicles, enabling wide coverage at low cost. Research on drive-by sensing has mostly focused on sensor engineering, but a key question remains unexplored: How many vehicles would be required to adequately scan a city? Here, we address this question by analyzing the sensing power of a taxi fleet. Taxis, being numerous in cities, are natural hosts for the sensors. Using a ball-in-bin model in tandem with a simple model of taxi movements, we analytically determine the fraction of a city’s street network sensed by a fleet of taxis during a day. Our results agree with taxi data obtained from nine major cities and reveal that a remarkably small number of taxis can scan a large number of streets. This finding appears to be universal, indicating its applicability to cities beyond those analyzed here. Moreover, because taxis’ motion combines randomness and regularity (passengers’ destinations being random, but the routes to them being deterministic), the spreading properties of taxi fleets are unusual; in stark contrast to random walks, the stationary densities of our taxi model obey Zipf’s law, consistent with empirical taxi data. Our results have direct utility for town councilors, smart-city designers, and other urban decision makers.

Seasonal influenza presents an ongoing challenge to public health. The rapid evolution of the flu virus necessitates annual vaccination campaigns, but the decision to get vaccinated or not in a given year is largely voluntary, at least in the United States, and many people decide against it. In early attempts to model these yearly flu vaccine decisions, it was often assumed that individuals behave rationally, and do so with perfect information -- assumptions that allowed the techniques of classical economics and game theory to be applied. However, the usual assumptions are contradicted by the emerging empirical evidence about human decision-making behavior in this context. We develop a simple model of coupled disease spread and vaccination dynamics that instead incorporates experimental observations from social psychology to model annual vaccine decision-making more realistically. We investigate population-level effects of these new decision-making assumptions, with the goal of understanding whether the population can self-organize into a state of herd immunity, and if so, under what conditions. Our model agrees with established results while also revealing more subtle population-level behavior, including biennial oscillations about the herd immunity threshold., 20 pages, 6 figures

Synchronization occurs in many natural and technological systems, from cardiac pacemaker cells to coupled lasers. In the synchronized state, the individual cells or lasers coordinate the timing of their oscillations, but they do not move through space. A complementary form of self-organization occurs among swarming insects, flocking birds, or schooling fish; now the individuals move through space, but without conspicuously altering their internal states. Here we explore systems in which both synchronization and swarming occur together. Specifically, we consider oscillators whose phase dynamics and spatial dynamics are coupled. We call them swarmalators, to highlight their dual character. A case study of a generalized Kuramoto model predicts five collective states as possible long-term modes of organization. These states may be observable in groups of sperm, Japanese tree frogs, colloidal suspensions of magnetic particles, and other biological and physical systems in which self-assembly and synchronization interact., Collective self-organized behavior can be observed in a variety of systems such as colloids and microswimmers. Here O’Keeffe et al. propose a model of oscillators which move in space and tend to synchronize with neighboring oscillators and outline five types of collective self-organized states.

Sharing rides could drastically improve the efficiency of car and taxi transportation. Unleashing such potential, however, requires understanding how urban parameters affect the fraction of individual trips that can be shared, a quantity that we call shareability. Using data on millions of taxi trips in New York City, San Francisco, Singapore, and Vienna, we compute the shareability curves for each city, and find that a natural rescaling collapses them onto a single, universal curve. We explain this scaling law theoretically with a simple model that predicts the potential for ride sharing in any city, using a few basic urban quantities and no adjustable parameters. Accurate extrapolations of this type will help planners, transportation companies, and society at large to shape a sustainable path for urban growth., National Science Foundation (U.S.) (DMS-1513179), National Science Foundation (U.S.) (CCF-1522054)

Previous network analyses of several languages revealed a unique set of structural characteristics. One of these characteristics—the presence of many smaller components (referred to as islands)—was further examined with a comparative analysis of the island constituents. The results showed that Spanish words in the islands tended to be phonologically and semantically similar to each other, but English words in the islands tended only to be phonologically similar to each other. The results of this analysis yielded hypotheses about language processing that can be tested with psycholinguistic experiments, and offer insight into cross-language differences in processing that have been previously observed.

We have recently developed a method that allows the quantification of spare capacity in urban taxi systems through trip sharing (1), hence making it more efficient and less resource intensive—all other things being equal—in particular fares, which can be modified by public policy. In their comment on our study, Lopez et al. observe that a complete evaluation of the environmental sustainability of taxi sharing requires not only considering direct impacts, but also indirect impacts (2). We fully agree with this observation. For limiting the scope of our analysis (1) to a manageable extent, and in lack of an established methodology for quantifying the impacts of vehicle sharing at the granularity of single trips, we were not able to account for effects that can be considered as exogenous to the taxi system. Indeed, urban and regional models are composed of both exogenous and endogenous variables, and “much of the ongoing research agenda can be focused on transferring variables from the exogenous to the endogenous category” (3). The extensions suggested by Lopez et al. (2) and in our report (1) go exactly along this direction.

One new thing often leads to another. Such correlated novelties are a familiar part of daily life. They are also thought to be fundamental to the evolution of biological systems, human society, and technology. By opening new possibilities, one novelty can pave the way for others in a process that Kauffman has called "expanding the adjacent possible". The dynamics of correlated novelties, however, have yet to be quantified empirically or modeled mathematically. Here we propose a simple mathematical model that mimics the process of exploring a physical, biological or conceptual space that enlarges whenever a novelty occurs. The model, a generalization of Polya's urn, predicts statistical laws for the rate at which novelties happen (analogous to Heaps' law) and for the probability distribution on the space explored (analogous to Zipf's law), as well as signatures of the hypothesized process by which one novelty sets the stage for another. We test these predictions on four data sets of human activity: the edit events of Wikipedia pages, the emergence of tags in annotation systems, the sequence of words in texts, and listening to new songs in online music catalogues. By quantifying the dynamics of correlated novelties, our results provide a starting point for a deeper understanding of the ever-expanding adjacent possible and its role in biological, linguistic, cultural, and technological evolution.

It is not uncommon for certain social networks to divide into two opposing camps in response to stress. This happens, for example, in networks of political parties during winner-takes-all elections, in networks of companies competing to establish technical standards, and in networks of nations faced with mounting threats of war. A simple model for these two-sided separations is the dynamical system dX / dt = X 2 , where X is a matrix of the friendliness or unfriendliness between pairs of nodes in the network. Previous simulations suggested that only two types of behavior were possible for this system: Either all relationships become friendly or two hostile factions emerge. Here we prove that for generic initial conditions, these are indeed the only possible outcomes. Our analysis yields a closed-form expression for faction membership as a function of the initial conditions and implies that the initial amount of friendliness in large social networks (started from random initial conditions) determines whether they will end up in intractable conflict or global harmony.

Do regional boundaries defined by governments respect the more natural ways that people interact across space? This paper proposes a novel, fine-grained approach to regional delineation, based on analyzing networks of billions of individual human transactions. Given a geographical area and some measure of the strength of links between its inhabitants, we show how to partition the area into smaller, non-overlapping regions while minimizing the disruption to each person's links. We tested our method on the largest non-Internet human network, inferred from a large telecommunications database in Great Britain. Our partitioning algorithm yields geographically cohesive regions that correspond remarkably well with administrative regions, while unveiling unexpected spatial structures that had previously only been hypothesized in the literature. We also quantify the effects of partitioning, showing for instance that the effects of a possible secession of Wales from Great Britain would be twice as disruptive for the human network than that of Scotland., National Science Foundation (U.S.), AT & T, Audi AG, United States. Dept. of Defense (National Defense Science and Engineering Fellowship Program)

The network characteristics based on the phonological similarities in the lexicons of several languages were examined. These languages differed widely in their history and linguistic structure, but commonalities in the network characteristics were observed. These networks were also found to be different from other networks studied in the literature. The properties of these networks suggest explanations for various aspects of linguistic processing and hint at deeper organization within human language., 5 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Phys. Rev. E

This article has explored history, recent advances, and challenges in distributed synchronization for distributed wireless systems. It is focused on synchronization schemes based on exchange of signals at the physical layer and corresponding baseband processing, wherein analysis and design can be performed using known tools from signal processing. Emphasis has also been given on the synergy between distributed synchronization and distributed estimation/detection problems. Finally, we have touched upon synchronization of nonperiodic (chaotic) signals. Overall, we hope to have conveyed the relevance of the subject and to have provided insight on the open issues and available analytical tools that could inspire further research within the signal processing community.

Arrays of identical oscillators can display a remarkable spatiotemporal pattern in which phase-locked oscillators coexist with drifting ones. Discovered two years ago, such "chimera states" are believed to be impossible for locally or globally coupled systems; they are peculiar to the intermediate case of nonlocal coupling. Here we present an exact solution for this state, for a ring of phase oscillators coupled by a cosine kernel. We show that the stable chimera state bifurcates from a spatially modulated drift state, and dies in a saddle-node bifurcation with an unstable chimera., 4 pages, 4 figures

In 1967 Winfree proposed a mean-field model for the spontaneous synchronization of chorusing crickets, flashing fireflies, circadian pacemaker cells, or other large populations of biological oscillators. Here we give the first bifurcation analysis of the model, for a tractable special case. The system displays rich collective dynamics as a function of the coupling strength and the spread of natural frequencies. Besides incoherence, frequency locking, and oscillator death, there exist novel hybrid solutions that combine two or more of these states. We present the phase diagram and derive several of the stability boundaries analytically., Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures