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4. Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

Author

Almazroui, Mansour, Islam, M. Nazrul, Saeed, Fahad, Saeed, Sajjad, Ismail, Muhammad, Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar, Diallo, Ismaila, O’Brien, Enda, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Martínez-Castro, Daniel, Cavazos, Tereza, Cerezo-Mota, Ruth, Tippett, Michael K., Gutowski, Jr., William J., Alfaro, Eric J., Hidalgo, Hugo G., Vichot-Llano, Alejandro, Campbell, Jayaka D., Kamil, Shahzad, Rashid, Irfan Ur, Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba, Stephenson, Tannecia, Taylor, Michael, and Barlow, Mathew

Published
2021
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5. Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward.

Author

Shaw, Tiffany A., Arias, Paola A., Collins, Mat, Coumou, Dim, Diedhiou, Arona, Garfinkel, Chaim I., Jain, Shipra, Koll Roxy, Mathew, Kretschmer, Marlene, Leung, L. Ruby, Narsey, Sugata, Martius, Olivia, Seager, Richard, Shepherd, Theodore G., Sörensson, Anna A., Stephenson, Tannecia, Taylor, Michael, and Lin Wang

Subjects
CLIMATE change, GLOBAL warming, ATMOSPHERIC models, OCEAN temperature, STAKEHOLDERS
Abstract

Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea warming contrasts have been predicted by climate models. However, many other observed regional changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature and monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by climate model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability and structural uncertainties in the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests climate model predictions may not fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between models and observations are not well understood due to several real and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the "signal-tonoise paradox" and real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside of the possible range predicted by models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzles and limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably predicting regional climate change is necessary in order to communicate effectively about the underlying drivers of change, provide reliable information to stakeholders, enable societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. The challenges of achieving this are greater in the Global South, especially because of the lack of observational data over long time periods and a lack of scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address discrepancies between observations and models, it is important to prioritize resources for understanding regional climate predictions and analyzing where and why models and observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy, better quantification of forcing, and new observations. Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities that allow regional experts, particularly those from the Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research. This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional climate communication are needed, which account for the underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and actionable information to stakeholders and the media. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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11. Investigation of Multi-Timescale Sea Level Variability near Jamaica in the Caribbean Using Satellite Altimetry Records.

Author

Maitland, Deron O., Taylor, Michael A., and Stephenson, Tannecia S.

Subjects
STORM surges, SEA level, OCEAN temperature, GLACIAL isostasy, EL Nino, SOUTHERN oscillation
Abstract

There is a dearth of studies characterizing historical sea level variability at the local scale for the islands in the Caribbean. This is due to the lack of reliable long term tide gauge data. There is, however, a significant need for such studies given that small islands are under increasing threat from rising sea levels, storm surges, and coastal flooding due to global warming. The growing length of satellite altimetry records provides a useful alternative to undertake sea level analyses. Altimetry data, spanning 1993–2019, are used herein to explore multi-timescale sea level variability near the south coast of Jamaica, in the northwest Caribbean. Caribbean basin dynamics and largescale forcing mechanisms, which could account for the variability, are also investigated. The results show that the average annual amplitude off the south coast of Jamaica is approximately 10 cm with a seasonal peak during the summer (July–August). The highest annual sea levels occur within the Caribbean storm season, adding to the annual risk. The annual trend over the 27 years is 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr when adjusted for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), instrumental drift, and accounting for uncertainties. This is comparable to mean global sea level rise, but almost twice the prior estimates for the Caribbean which used altimetry data up to 2010. This suggests an accelerated rate of rise in the Caribbean over the last decade. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and correlation analyses show the long-term trend to be a basin-wide characteristic and linked to warming Caribbean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the period. When the altimetry data are detrended and deseasoned, the leading EOF mode has maximum loadings over the northwest Caribbean, including Jamaica, and exhibits interannual variability which correlates significantly with a tropical Pacific-tropical Atlantic SST gradient index, local wind strength, and the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ). Correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in summer, seen in this and other studies, likely arise through the contribution of the ENSO to the SST gradient index and the ENSO's modulation of the CLLJ peak strength in July. The results demonstrate the usefulness of altimetry data for characterizing sea level risk on various timescales for small islands. They also suggest the potential for developing predictive models geared towards reducing those risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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18. Climate Change and Pathways Used by Pests as Challenges to Plant Health in Agriculture and Forestry.

Author

Gullino, Maria Lodovica, Albajes, Ramon, Al-Jboory, Ibrahim, Angelotti, Francislene, Chakraborty, Subrata, Garrett, Karen A., Hurley, Brett Phillip, Juroszek, Peter, Lopian, Ralf, Makkouk, Khaled, Pan, Xubin, Pugliese, Massimo, and Stephenson, Tannecia

Abstract

Climate change already challenges people's livelihood globally and it also affects plant health. Rising temperatures facilitate the introduction and establishment of unwanted organisms, including arthropods, pathogens, and weeds (hereafter collectively called pests). For example, a single, unusually warm winter under temperate climatic conditions may be sufficient to assist the establishment of invasive plant pests, which otherwise would not be able to establish. In addition, the increased market globalization and related transport of recent years, coupled with increased temperatures, has led to favorable conditions for pest movement, invasion, and establishment worldwide. Most published studies indicate that, in general, pest risk will increase in agricultural ecosystems under climate-change scenarios, especially in today's cooler arctic, boreal, temperate, and subtropical regions. This is also mostly true for forestry. Some pests have already expanded their host range or distribution, at least in part due to changes in climate. Examples of these pests, selected according to their relevance in different geographical areas, are summarized here. The main pathways used by them, directly and/or indirectly, are also discussed. Understanding these pathways can support decisions about mitigation and adaptation measures. The review concludes that preventive mitigation and adaptation measures, including biosecurity, are key to reducing the projected increases in pest risk in agriculture, horticulture, and forestry. Therefore, the sustainable management of pests is urgently needed. It requires holistic solutions, including effective phytosanitary regulations, globally coordinated diagnostic and surveillance systems, pest risk modeling and analysis, and preparedness for pro-active management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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20. Evaluating Skill of the Keetch–Byram Drought Index, Vapour Pressure Deficit and Water Potential for Determining Bushfire Potential in Jamaica.

Author

Charlton, Candice, Stephenson, Tannecia, Taylor, Michael A., and Campbell, Jayaka

Subjects
*WATER pressure, *WILDFIRES, *VAPORS, *DROUGHTS, *CLIMATOLOGY
Abstract

Bushfire management which incorporates fire potential indices is still in its infancy in Jamaica and the Caribbean. In this study three bushfire potential indices—Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD) and Water Potential (Ψw)—are calculated for south-central Jamaica where bushfire frequencies are highest. The skills of the indices are evaluated using their representation of the normalised bushfire climatology, monthly and seasonal (December–March/DJFM; April–June/AMJ; July–August/JA and September–November/SON) fire variability for the periods 2013–2017, 2010–2019 and 2001–2019. Fire data are obtained from the MODIS C6 Archive and Jamaica Fire Brigade (JFB). The relationship between the fire indices and large-scale oceanic and atmospheric features are also examined. The results suggest that Ψw exhibits strong correlations with the MODIS and JFB climatologies and represents well the maxima in March and July and the local minima in May–June and October. Ψw and VPDI also show good hit rates for moderate and high-risk categories in south-central Jamaica (though with relatively high false alarm rates). Regression models premised on Ψw and VPD respectively show good skill in representing AMJ (R2 = 57–58%), SON (R2 = 57–58%) and JA (R2 = 57–60%) fire variability. Variability during DJFM is poorly captured by any fire index. Although the KBDI represents the normalised climatology reasonably well its peaks occur one month later, that is, in April and August. KBDI exhibits strong and statistically significant correlations with JFB and MODIS climatologies, but seasonal models premised on KBDI do not perform as well as for the other two indices except in JA. All indices had a statistically significant relationship on both monthly and 1 month lag time scales for NINO3 and TNA-NINO3 large-scale climate indices. The indices, and in particular Ψw, show good prospects for producing seasonal bushfire outlooks for south-central Jamaica and Jamaica in general. These results also suggest the usefulness of monitoring large-scale oceanic patterns as part of the monitoring framework for bushfires in the island. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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21. An assessment of the impact of 1.5 versus 2 and 2.5°C global temperature increase on flooding in Jamaica: a case study from the Hope watershed.

Author

Mandal, Arpita, Stephenson, Tannecia, Campbell, Jayaka, Taylor, Michael, Watson, Shavel, Clarke, Leonardo, Smith, David, Darsan, Junior, and Wilson, Matthew

Subjects
*CLIMATE change models, *FLOOD risk, *HYDRAULIC models, *GLOBAL warming, *ATMOSPHERIC models, *FLOODS, *WATERSHEDS
Abstract

Climate change models project that, within the Caribbean basin, rainfall intensity is likely to increase toward the end of this century, although the region is projected to be drier overall. This may affect the frequency and severity of floods in Jamaica and the Caribbean Small Island Developing States. We investigate how flood hazards may be affected by increases in global mean surface temperature of 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5°C above pre- industrial levels using a case study of a Jamaican watershed. Rainfall projections from the PRECIS regional climate model for the Caribbean are analysed. Six members from the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (AENWH, AEXSA, AEXSC, AEXSK, AEXSL and AEXSM) were used to create 100-year flood inundation maps for the Hope river for different global warming levels using hydrological and hydraulic models. Model runs projected peak discharges at 2.0, 2.5 and 1.5°C warming that were higher than discharges in the historical record of events that damaged sections of the watershed. Projections from the hydraulic model show increased flow area, depth and extent for 1.5 followed by 2.0 and 2.5°C rises in temperature. These results imply continued flood risk for the vulnerable areas of the watershed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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22. State of the Climate in 2018

Author

Ades, M., Adler, R., Aldeco, Laura S., Alejandra, G., Alfaro, Eric J., Aliaga-Nestares, Vannia, Allan, Richard P., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Andersen, J. K., Anderson, John, Arndt, Derek S., Arosio, C., Arrigo, Kevin, Azorin-Molina, César, Bardin, M. Yu, Barichivich, Jonathan, Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Beck, H. E., Becker, Andreas, Bell, Gerald D., Bellouin, Nicolas, Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Benedict, Imme, Bernhard, G. H., Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bettio, Lynette, Bhatt, U. S., Biskaborn, B. K., Bissolli, Peter, Bjella, Kevin L., Bjerke, J. K., Blake, Eric S., Blenkinsop, Stephen, Blunden, Jessica, Bock, Olivier, Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir, Bringas, Francis G., Bromwich, David H., Brown, Alrick, Brown, R., Brown, Timothy J., Buehler, S. A., Cáceres, Luis, Calderón, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Jayaka D., Campos Diaz, Diego A., Cappelen, J., Carrea, Laura, Carrier, Seth B., Carter, Brendan R., Castro, Anabel Y., Cetinic, Ivona, Chambers, Don P., Chen, Lin, Cheng, Lijing, Cheng, Vincent Y.S., Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, E. S., Claus, Federico, Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A.S., Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Cosca, Cathy, Covey, Curt, Coy, Lawrence, Dávila, Cristina P., Davis, Sean M., de Eyto, Elvira, de Jeu, Richard A.M., De Laat, Jos, Decharme, B., Degasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Demircan, Mesut, Derksen, C., Dhurmea, K. R., Di Girolamo, Larry, Diamond, Howard J., Diaz, Eliecer, Diniz, Fransisco A., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Domingues, Ricardo, Donat, Markus G., Dorigo, Wouter A., Drozdov, D. S., Druckenmiller, Matthew L., Dunn, Robert J.H., Durre, Imke, Dutton, Geoff S., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Epstein, H. E., Espinoza, Jhan C., Famiglietti, James S., Farrell, Sinead L., Fausto, R. S., Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Fogt, Ryan L., Forbes, B. C., Foster, Michael J., Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Garforth, J., Gerland, Sebastian, Gilson, John, Gleason, Karin, Gobron, Nadine, Goetz, S., Goldenberg, Stanley B., Goni, Gustavo, Gray, Alison, Grooß, Jens Uwe, Gruber, Alexander, Gu, Guojun, Guard, Charles Chip P., Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, Dimitri, Haas, Christian, Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Harris, Ian, Hazeleger, Wilco, He, Q., Heidinger, Andrew K., Heim, Richard R., Hemming, D. L., Hendricks, Stefan, Hernández, Rafael, Hersbach, H. E., Hidalgo, Hugo G., Ho, Shu Peng Ben, Holmes, R. M., Hu, Chuanmin, Huang, Boyin, Hubbard, Katherine, Hubert, Daan, Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, Iolanda, Ijampy, J. A., Inness, Antje, Isaac, Victor, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jeffries, Martin O., Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jia, G., Jiménez, C., Jin, Xiangze, John, Viju, Johnsen, Bjørn, Johnson, Gregory C., Johnson, Kenneth S., Johnson, Bryan, Jones, Philip D., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, J. W., Karaköylü, Erdem M., Karlsen, S. R., Karnauskas, Mandy, Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A. Fazl, Kelble, Christopher, Keller, Linda M., Kennedy, John, Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Kidd, R., Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. J., King, A. D., King, Brian A., Kipling, Z., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kramarova, Natalya A., Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Krumpen, Thomas, Labbé, L., Ladd, C., Lakatos, Mónika, Lakkala, Kaisa, Lander, Mark A., Landschützer, Peter, Landsea, Chris W., Lareau, Neil P., Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Lazzara, Matthew A., Lee, T. C., Leuliette, Eric, L’heureux, Michelle, Li, Bailing, Li, Tim, Lieser, Jan L., Lim, J. Y., Lin, I. I., Liu, Hongxing, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Long, Craig S., López, Luis A., Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing Jia, Luojus, K., Lyman, John M., Malkova, G. V., Manney, Gloria L., Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, José A., Marin, Dora, Marquardt Collow, Allison B., Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martínez-Güingla, Rodney, Massom, Robert A., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, McBride, Charlotte, McCabe, M., McClelland, J. W., McEvoy, Daniel J., McGree, Simon, McVicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl A., Meier, Walt, Meijers, Andrew, Mekonnen, Ademe, Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Miller, Ben, Miralles, Diego G., Misevicius, Noelia, Mitchum, Gary T., Mochizuki, Y., Monselesan, Didier, Montzka, Stephen A., Mora, Natali, Morice, Colin, Mosquera-Vásquez, Kobi, Mostafa, Awatif E., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Müller, Rolf, Myneni, R., Nash, Eric R., Nauslar, Nicholas J., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, Paul A., Nicolas, Julien P., Nieto, Juan José, Noetzli, Jeannette, Osborn, Tim J., Osborne, Emily, Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Park, T., Pasch, Richard J., Pascual Ramírez, Reynaldo, Pastor Saavedra, Maria Asuncion, Paterson, Andrew M., Pearce, Petra R., Pelto, Mauri S., Perovich, Don, Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, C., Phillips, David, Phoenix, G., Pinty, Bernard, Pitts, Michael, Po-Chedley, S., Polashenski, Chris, Preimesberger, W., Purkey, Sarah G., Quispe, Nelson, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Rakotoarimalala, C. L., Ramos, Andrea M., Ramos, Isabel, Randel, W., Raynolds, M. K., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Rémy, Samuel, Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richardson, A. D., Richter-Menge, Jacqueline, Ricker, Robert, Ripaldi, A., Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rodriguez Camino, Ernesto, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Rösner, Benajamin, Roth, Chris, Rozanov, A., Rusak, James A., Rustemeier, Elke, Rutishäuser, T., Sallée, Jean Baptiste, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Scanlon, T., Scardilli, Alvaro S., Schenzinger, Verena, Schladow, S. Geoffey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schoeneich, P., Schreck, Carl J., Selkirk, H. B., Sensoy, Serhat, Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, A. I., Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Shimpo, A., Shuman, Christopher A., Siegel, David A., Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Smeets, C. J.P.P., Smith, Adam, Smith, Sharon L., Soden, B., Sofieva, Viktoria, Sparks, T. H., Spence, Jacqueline, Spencer, R. G.M., Spillane, Sandra, Srivastava, A. K., Stabeno, P. J., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Stanitski, Diane M., Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, José L., Stengel, M., Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan E., Streeter, Casey, Streletskiy, Dimitri A., Sun-Mack, Sunny, Suslova, A., Sutton, Adrienne J., Swart, Sebastiann, Sweet, William, Takahashi, Kenneth S., Tank, S. E., Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Thackeray, S. J., Thompson, Philip R., Timbal, Bertrand, Timmermans, M. L., Tobin, Skie, Tømmervik, H., Tourpali, Kleareti, Trachte, Katja, Tretiakov, M., Trewin, Blair C., Triñanes, Joaquin A., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, Mark, Tye, Mari R., van As, D., van de Wal, R. S.W., van der A, Ronald J., van der Schalie, Robin, van der Schrier, Gerard, van der Werf, Guido R., van Heerwaarden, Chiel, Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Verburg, Piet, Vieira, G., Vincent, Lucie A., Vömel, Holger, Vose, Russell S., Walker, D. A., Walsh, J. E., Wang, Bin, Wang, Hui, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Mengqiu, Wang, Ray, Wang, Sheng Hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Webster, Melinda, Weerts, Albrecht, Weller, Robert A., Westberry, Toby K., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Widlansky, Matthew J., Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Xue, Yan, Yin, Xungang, Yu, Lisan, Zambrano, Eduardo, Zeyaeyan, Sadegh, Zhang, Huai Min, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhao, Lin, Zhou, Xinjia, Zhu, Zhiwei, Ziemke, Jerry R., Ziese, Markus, Andersen, Andrea, Griffin, Jessicca, Hammer, Gregory, Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, Misch, Deborah J., Riddle, Deborah B., Veasey, Sara W., Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Berry, David, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, King, Brian, and Domingues, Catia

Subjects
Surface (mathematics), Atmospheric Science, Materials science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0207 environmental engineering, Mineralogy, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, ComputingMethodologies_DOCUMENTANDTEXTPROCESSING, SDG 13 - Climate Action, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, 020701 environmental engineering, GeneralLiterature_REFERENCE(e.g.,dictionaries,encyclopedias,glossaries), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year's end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981-2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June's Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°-0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000-18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981-2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir-Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael's landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and $6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14-15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000-10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars).

Published
2019

23. Evaluation of DSSAT‐MANIHOT‐Cassava model to determine potential irrigation benefits for cassava in Jamaica.

Author

Rankine, Dale, Cohen, Jane, Murray, Fradian, Moreno‐Cadena, Patricia, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Campbell, Jayaka, Taylor, Michael, and Stephenson, Tannecia

Abstract

Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is an important food crop, especially in developing countries, because of its resilience and ability to grow in conditions generally inhospitable for other crops. However, tropical crops like cassava are not as frequently modeled compared with crops from temperate locations. The objective of this research was to calibrate the CSM‐MANIHOT‐Cassava model of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT beta v4.8 and use the model to evaluate the potential benefits of irrigation on yield. We established two field trials with two water treatments (rainfed and irrigated) and four cultivars that had not been studied previously. We simulated in‐season biomass and end‐of‐season yield, evaluating the model performance with different statistical measures. There was good agreement between simulated and measured values; the best results showed a deviation of 9.7%, normalized RMSE of 18%, and d‐index of 0.98 for biomass, with corresponding values of 11, 24, and 0.98, respectively, for yield. Good simulations of yield correlated with accurate simulations for leaf area index and harvest index. The varieties showed differential responses to irrigation, suggesting that there are diverse levels of drought tolerance even within the same environmental conditions. The model was able to simulate total crop failure in harsh drought conditions, suggesting it can be used as a key decision‐making tool in unfavorable conditions that will be occasioned by climate change. Core Ideas: The study calibrated four cassava cultivars in the CSM‐MANIHOT‐Cassava model.The model can simulate crop failure under high drought stress conditions.With climate change, irrigation is critical for future production of cassava in Jamaica.The model can be used to prioritize climate change adaptation options for agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
Full Text
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24. State of the climate in 2017

Author

Abernethy, R., Ackerman, Steven A., Adler, R., Albanil Encarnación, Adelina, Aldeco, Laura S., Alfaro, Eric J., Aliaga-Nestares, Vannia, Allan, Richard P., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Anderson, John, Andreassen, L. M., Argüez, Anthony, Armitage, C., Arndt, Derek S., Avalos, Grinia, Azorin-Molina, César, Báez, Julián, Bardin, M. Yu, Barichivich, Jonathan, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Beck, H. E., Becker, Andreas, Bedka, Kristopher M., Behe, Carolina, Bell, Gerald D., Bellouin, Nicolas, Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Bernhard, G. H., Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bhatt, U. S., Bissolli, Peter, Bjerke, J., Blake, Eric S., Blenkinsop, Stephen, Blunden, Jessica, Bolmgren, K., Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Bouchon, Marilú, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Buehler, S., Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Calderón, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Ethan C., Campbell, Jayaka D., Cappelen, J., Carrea, Laura, Carter, Brendan R., Castro, Anabel, Chambers, Don P., Cheng, Lijing, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, E. S., Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A.S., Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Copland, L., Costanza, Carol, Covey, Curt, Coy, Lawrence, Cronin, T., Crouch, Jake, Cruzado, Luis, Daniel, Raychelle, Davis, Sean M., Davletshin, S. G., De Eyto, Elvira, De Jeu, Richard A.M., De La Cour, Jacqueline L., De Laat, Jos, De Gasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Deline, P., Demircan, Mesut, Derksen, C., Dewitte, Boris, Dhurmea, R., Di Girolamo, Larry, Diamond, Howard J., Dickerson, C., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Domingues, Ricardo, Donat, Markus G., Dong, Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Drozdov, D. S., Dunn, Robert J.H., Durre, Imke, Dutton, Geoff S., Eakin, C. Mark, El Kharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Epstein, H. E., Espinoza, Jhan C., Famiglietti, James S., Farmer, J., Farrell, S., Fauchald, P., Fausto, R. S., Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris, Forbes, B. C., Foster, Michael J., Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Geiger, Erick F., Gerland, S., Gilson, John, Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Gomez, Andrea M., Goni, Gustavo, Grooß, Jens Uwe, Gruber, Alexander, Guard, Charles P., Gugliemin, Mario, Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, Dimitri, Haas, C., Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, L., Harris, Ian, Hartfield, Gail, Heidinger, Andrew K., Heim, Richard R., Helfrich, S., Hemming, D. L., Hendricks, S., Hernández, Rafael, Hernández, Sosa Marieta, Heron, Scott F., Heuzé, C., Hidalgo, Hugo G., Ho, Shu Peng, Hobbs, William R., Horstkotte, T., Huang, Boyin, Hubert, Daan, Hueuzé, Céline, Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, Iolanda, Ibrahim, M. M., Ijampy, J. A., Inness, Antje, Isaac, Victor, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jacobs, Stephanie J., Jeffries, Martin O., Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jiménez, C., Jin, Xiangze, John, Viju, Johns, William E., Johnsen, Bjørn, Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C., Johnson, Kenneth S., Jones, Philip D., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, J. W., Karaköylü, Erdem M., Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A., Keller, Linda M., Kennedy, John, Kerr, Kenneth, Khan, M. S., Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. J., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Kohler, J., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Krumpen, T., Ladd, C., Lakatos, Mónika, Lakkala, Kaisa, Lander, Mark A., Landschützer, Peter, Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Lazzara, Matthew A., Lee, S. E., Lee, T. C., Leuliette, Eric, L'Heureux, Michelle, Li, Tim, Lieser, Jan L., Lin, I. I., Mears, Carl A., Liu, Gang, Li, Bailing, Liu, Hongxing, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Long, Craig S., López, Luis A., Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing Jia, Luojus, K., Luthcke, S., Macias-Fauria, M., Malkova, G. V., Manney, Gloria L., Marcellin, Vernie, Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, José A., Marín, Dora, Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martin, A., Martínez, Alejandra G., Martínez-Güingla, Rodney, Martínez-Sánchez, Odalys, Marsh, Benjamin L., Lyman, John M., Massom, Robert A., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, McBride, Charlotte, McCabe, M. F., McCarthy, Mark, Meier, W., Meijers, Andrew J.S., Mekonnen, Ademe, Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Miller, Ben, Miralles, Diego G., Mitchum, Gary T., Mitro, Sukarni, Moat, Ben, Mochizuki, Y., Monselesan, Didier, Montzka, Stephen A., Mora, Natalie, Morice, Colin, Mosquera-Vásquez, Kobi, Mostafa, Awatif E., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Müller, Rolf, Myneni, R., Nash, Eric R., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, L., Newman, Paul A., Nielsen-Gammon, John W., Nieto, Juan José, Noetzli, Jeannette, Noll, Ben E., O'Neel, S., Osborn, Tim J., Osborne, Emily, Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Park, T., Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-Ramírez, Reynaldo, Pastor Saavedra, Maria Asuncion, Paterson, Andrew M., Paulik, Christoph, Pearce, Petra R., Peltier, Alexandre, Pelto, Mauri S., Peng, Liang, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Perovich, Don, Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, C., Phillips, David, Phoenix, G., Pinty, Bernard, Pinzon, J., Po-Chedley, S., Polashenski, C., Purkey, Sarah G., Quispe, Nelson, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Rakotoarimalala, C., Rayner, Darren, Raynolds, M. K., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Rémy, Samuel, Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richardson, A. D., Richter-Menge, Jacqueline, Ricker, R., Rimmer, Alon, Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rodriguez Camino, Ernesto, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Rösner, Benjamin, Roth, Chris, Roth, David Mark, Rusak, James A., Rutishäuser, T., Sallée, Jean Bapiste, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sasgen, L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayad, T. A., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Scanlon, T., Schenzinger, Verena, Schladow, S. Geoffrey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schreck, Carl J., Selkirk, H. B., Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Sharp, M., Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Shimaraeva, Svetlana V., Siegel, David A., Silow, Eugene, Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Skirving, William J., Smeed, David A., Smeets, C. J.P.P., Smith, Adam, Smith, Sharon L., Soden, B., Sofieva, Viktoria, Sparks, T. H., Spence, Jacqueline M., Spillane, Sandra, Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Stanitski, Diane M., Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, José L., Stengel, M., Stephenson, Kimberly, Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan, Streletskiy, Dimitri A., Strong, Alan E., Sun-Mack, Sunny, Sutton, Adrienne J., Swart, Sebastiaan, Sweet, William, Takahashi, Kenneth S., Tamar, Gerard, Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Thackeray, S. J., Thoman, R. L., Thompson, Philip, Thomson, L., Thorsteinsson, T., Timbal, Bertrand, Timmermans, M. L., TImofeyev, Maxim A., Tirak, Kyle V., Tobin, Skie, Togawa, H., Tømmervik, H., Tourpali, Kleareti, Trachte, Katja, Trewin, Blair C., Triñanes, Joaquin A., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, M., Tucker, C. J., Tye, Mari R., Van As, D., Van De Wal, R. S.W., Van Der Ronald, J. A., Van Der Schalie, Robin, Van Der Schrier, Gerard, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Velden, Christopher S., Velicogna, I., Verburg, Piet, Vickers, H., Vincent, Lucie A., Vömel, Holger, Vose, Russell S., Wagner, Wolfgang, Walker, D. A., Walsh, J., Wang, Bin, Wang, Junhong, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Ray, Wang, Sheng Hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Webster, M., Weller, Robert A., Westberry, Toby K., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Whitewood, Robert, Widlansky, Matthew J., Wiese, David N., Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Willis, Josh K., Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Wood, K., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Wouters, B., Xue, Yan, Yin, Xungang, Yoon, Huang, York, A., Yu, Lisan, Zambrano, Eduardo, Zhang, Huai Min, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhao, Lin, Zhu, Zhiwei, Ziel, R., Ziemke, Jerry R., Ziese, Markus G., Griffin, Jessicca, Hammer, Gregory, Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, Misch, Deborah J., Riddle, Deborah B., Slagle, Mary, Sprain, Mara, Veasey, Sara W., McVicar, Tim R., Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Sub Soft Condensed Matter, LS Religiewetenschap, Sub Atmospheric physics and chemistry, Zonder bezoldiging NED, LS Taalverwerving, Leerstoel Tubergen, Afd Chemical Biology and Drug Discovery, Hafd Faculteitsbureau GW, Afd Pharmacology, Dep IRAS, Marine and Atmospheric Research, and OFR - Religious Studies

Subjects
Atmospheric Science
Abstract

In 2017, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-reached new record highs. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface for 2017 was 405.0 ± 0.1 ppm, 2.2 ppm greater than for 2016 and the highest in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800 000 years. The global growth rate of CO2 has nearly quadrupled since the early 1960s. With ENSO-neutral conditions present in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during most of the year and weak La Niña conditions notable at the start and end, the global temperature across land and ocean surfaces ranked as the second or third highest, depending on the dataset, since records began in the mid-to-late 1800s. Notably, it was the warmest non-El Niño year in the instrumental record. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower tropospheric temperature was also either second or third highest according to all datasets analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was about 0.2°C higher than the record cold temperature of 2016 according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Argentina, Uruguay, Spain, and Bulgaria, reported record high annual temperatures. Mexico broke its annual record for the fourth consecutive year. On 27 January, the temperature reached 43.4°C at Puerto Madryn, Argentina-the highest temperature recorded so far south (43°S) anywhere in the world. On 28 May in Turbat, western Pakistan, the high of 53.5°C tied Pakistan's all-time highest temperature and became the world-record highest temperature for May. In the Arctic, the 2017 land surface temperature was 1.6°C above the 1981-2010 average, the second highest since the record began in 1900, behind only 2016. The five highest annual Arctic temperatures have all occurred since 2007. Exceptionally high temperatures were observed in the permafrost across the Arctic, with record values reported in much of Alaska and northwestern Canada. In August, high sea surface temperature (SST) records were broken for the Chukchi Sea, with some regions as warm as +11°C, or 3° to 4°C warmer than the longterm mean (1982-present). According to paleoclimate studies, today's abnormally warm Arctic air and SSTs have not been observed in the last 2000 years. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 7 March, sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, covering 8% less area than the 1981-2010 average. The Arctic sea ice minimum on 13 September was the eighth lowest on record and covered 25% less area than the long-term mean. Preliminary data indicate that glaciers across the world lost mass for the 38th consecutive year on record; the declines are remarkably consistent from region to region. Cumulatively since 1980, this loss is equivalent to slicing 22 meters off the top of the average glacier. Antarctic sea ice extent remained below average for all of 2017, with record lows during the first four months. Over the continent, the austral summer seasonal melt extent and melt index were the second highest since 2005, mostly due to strong positive anomalies of air temperature over most of the West Antarctic coast. In contrast, the East Antarctic Plateau saw record low mean temperatures in March. The year was also distinguished by the second smallest Antarctic ozone hole observed since 1988. Across the global oceans, the overall long-term SST warming trend remained strong. Although SST cooled slightly from 2016 to 2017, the last three years produced the three highest annual values observed; these high anomalies have been associated with widespread coral bleaching. The most recent global coral bleaching lasted three full years, June 2014 to May 2017, and was the longest, most widespread, and almost certainly most destructive such event on record. Global integrals of 0-700-m and 0-2000-m ocean heat content reached record highs in 2017, and global mean sea level during the year became the highest annual average in the 25-year satellite altimetry record, rising to 77 mm above the 1993 average. In the tropics, 2017 saw 85 named tropical storms, slightly above the 1981-2010 average of 82. The North Atlantic basin was the only basin that featured an above-normal season, its seventh most active in the 164-year record. Three hurricanes in the basin were especially notable. Harvey produced record rainfall totals in areas of Texas and Louisiana, including a storm total of 1538.7 mm near Beaumont, Texas, which far exceeds the previous known U.S. tropical cyclone record of 1320.8 mm. Irma was the strongest tropical cyclone globally in 2017 and the strongest Atlantic hurricane outside of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean on record with maximum winds of 295 km h-1. Maria caused catastrophic destruction across the Caribbean Islands, including devastating wind damage and flooding across Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, the western North Pacific, South Indian, and Australian basins were all particularly quiet. Precipitation over global land areas in 2017 was clearly above the long-term average. Among noteworthy regional precipitation records in 2017, Russia reported its second wettest year on record (after 2013) and Norway experienced its sixth wettest year since records began in 1900. Across India, heavy rain and flood-related incidents during the monsoon season claimed around 800 lives. In August and September, above-normal precipitation triggered the most devastating floods in more than a decade in the Venezuelan states of Bolívar and Delta Amacuro. In Nigeria, heavy rain during August and September caused the Niger and Benue Rivers to overflow, bringing floods that displaced more than 100 000 people. Global fire activity was the lowest since at least 2003; however, high activity occurred in parts of North America, South America, and Europe, with an unusually long season in Spain and Portugal, which had their second and third driest years on record, respectively. Devastating fires impacted British Columbia, destroying 1.2 million hectares of timber, bush, and grassland, due in part to the region's driest summer on record. In the United States, an extreme western wildfire season burned over 4 million hectares; the total costs of $18 billion tripled the previous U.S. annual wildfire cost record set in 1991.

Published
2018

25. Long-term trends in precipitation and temperature across the Caribbean

Author

Jones, Philip D., Harpham, Colin, Harris, Ian, Goodess, Clare M., Burton, Aidan, Centella-Artola, Abel, Taylor, Michael A., Bezanilla-Morlot, Arnoldo, Campbell, Jayaka D., Stephenson, Tannecia S., Joslyn, Ottis, Nicholls, Keith, and Baur, Timo

Abstract

This study considers long-term precipitation and temperature variability across the Caribbean using two gridded data sets (CRU TS 3.21 and GPCCv5). We look at trends across four different regions (Northern, Eastern, Southern and Western), for three different seasons (May to July, August to October and November to April) and for three different periods (1901–2012, 1951–2012 and 1979–2012). There are no century-long trends in precipitation in either data set, although all regions (with the exception of the Northern Caribbean) show decade-long periods of wetter or drier conditions. The most significant of these is for the Southern Caribbean region which was wetter than the 1961–1990 average from 1940 to 1956 and then drier from 1957 to 1965. Temperature in contrast shows statistically significant warming everywhere for the periods 1901–2012, 1951–2012 and for over half the area during 1979–2012. Data availability is a limiting issue over much of the region and we also discuss the reliability of the series we use in the context of what is known to be available in the CRU TS 3.21 data set. More station data have been collected but have either not been fully digitized yet or not made freely available both within and beyond the region.

Published
2016

26. State of the Climate in 2010

Author

Achberger, Christine, Ackerman, Steven A., Ahlstrom, A., Alfaro, Eric J., Allan, Robert J., Alves, Robert J., Amador, Jorge A., Amelie, Vincent, Andrianjafinirina, Solonomenjanahary, Antonov, John, Arndt, Derek S., Ashik, Igor, Atheru, Zachary, Attaher, Samar M., Baez, Julian, Banzon, Viva, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Barriopedro, David, Barthia, Pawan K., Beal, Lisa M., Becker, Andreas, Behrenfeld, Michael J., Bell, Gerald D., Belward, Alan S., Benedetti, Angela, Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Beszczynska-Moeller, Agnieszka, Bhatt, Uma S., Bidegain, Mario, Bindoff, Nathaniel L., Bissolli, Peter, Blake, Eric S., Blunden, Jessica, Booneeady, Prithiviraj, Bosilovich, Michael G., Boudet, Dagne R., Box, Jason E., Boyer, Timothy P., Bromwich, David H., Brown, Ross, Bryden, Harry L., Bulygina, Olga N., Burrows, John, Butler, J., Cais, Philippe, Calderon, Blanca, Callaghan, T. V., Camargo, Suzana J., Cappelen, John, Carmack, Eddy, Chambers, Don P., Chelliah, Muthuvel, Chidichimo, Maria P., Christiansen, H., Christy, John, Coehlo, Caio A. S., Colwell, Steve, Comiso, Josefino C., Compo, Gilber P., Crouch, Jake, Cunningham, Stuart A., Cutie, Virgen C., Dai, Aiguo, Davydova-Belitskaya, Valentina, Jeu, Richard, Decker, David, Dee, Dick, Demircan, M., Derksen, Chris, Diamond, Howard J., Dlugokencky, Howard, Dohan, Kathleen, Dolman, A. Johannes, Dorigo, Wouter, Drozdov, Dmitry S., Durack, Paul J., Dutton, Geoffrey S., Easterling, David, Ebita, Ayataka, Eischeid, Jon, Elkins, James W., Epstein, Howard E., Euscategui, Christian, Faijka-Williams, Eleanor, Famiglietti, James S., Faniriantsoa, Rija, Feely, Richard A., Fekete, Balazs M., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, Xavier, Field, Eric, Fioletov, Vitali E., Fogarty, Vitali E., Fogt, Ryan L., Forbes, B. C., Foster, Michael J., Frajka-Williams, E., Free, Melissa, Frolov, Ivan, Ganesan, A. L., Ganter, Catherine, Gibney, Ethan J., Gill, Stephen, Gill, M., Gitau, Wilson, Gleason, Karin L., Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Goni, Gustavo J., Gonzalez, Idelmis G., Good, Simon A., Gottschalck, Jonathan, Gould, William A., Gouveia, Celia M., Griffiths, Georgina M., Guard, Chip, Guevara, Vladimir V., Haas, C., Hall, Bradley D., Halpert, Michael S., Heidinger, Andrew K., Heil, A., Heim, Richard R., Hennon, Paula A., Henry, Greg H. R., Hidalgo, Hugo G., Hilburn, Kyle, Hirschi, Joel J. M., Ho, Shu-Peng, Hobgood, Jay S., Hoerling, Martin, Holgate, Simon, Hook, Simon J., Hugony, Sebastien, Hurst, D., Ishihara, Hiroshi, Itoh, M., Jaimes, Ena, Jeffries, Martin, Jia, Gensu J., Jin, Xiangze, John, William E., Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C., Jones, Philip D., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, Johannes W., Kanzow, Torsten O., Kaplan, Alexey, Kearns, Edward J., Keller, Linda M., Kennedy, John J., Khatiwala, Samar, Kholodov, Alexander, Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Kikuchi, T., Kimberlain, Todd B., Knaff, John A., Kobayashi, Shinya, Kokelj, Steve V., Korshunova, Natalia N., Kratz, David P., Krishfield, Richard, Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Kumar Arun, Lammers, Richard B., Lander, Mark A., Landsea, Chris W., Lantuit, Hugues, Lantz, Trevor C., Lapinel, Braulio P., Lareef, Zubair, Lazzara, Matthew A., Leon, Antonia L., Leon, Gloria, Lauliette, Eric, Levitus, Sydney, Levy, Joel M., L Heureux, Michelle, Lin, I. I., Liu, Hongxing, Liu, Yanju, Liu, Yi, Loeb, Norman G., Long, Craig S., Lorrey, Andrew M., Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing-Jia, Lyman, John M., Macdonald, Alison M., Maddux, Brent C., Maier, Frank, Malkova, Galina, Marchenko, Sergey, Marengo, Jose A., Maritorena, Stephane, Marotzke, Jochem, Martinez Guingla, Rodney, Maslanik, Jochem, Masson, Robert A., Mcbride, Charlotte, Mcgree, Simon, Mclaughlin, Fiona, Mcpeters, Rich, Mcvicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl A., Medany, Mahmoud A., Meier, Walt, Meinen, Christopher S., Merrifield, Mark A., Miller, Laury, Mitchum, Gary T., Montzka, Steve, Morcrette, Jean-Jacques, Mote, Thomas, Muhle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Murray, Don, Nash, Eric R., Nerem, Steven R., Newman, Paul A., Nishino, S., Njau, Leonard, Noetzli, J., Oberbauer, S. F., Oberman, Naum, Obregon, Andre, Ogallo, Laban, Oludhe, Christopher, O Malley, Robert T., Overland, James, Park, Geun-Ha, Parker, David E., Pasch, Richard J., Pegion, Phil, Peltier, Alexandre, Pelto, Mauri S., Penalba, Olga C., Perez, Ramon S., Perlwitz, Judith, Perovich, Donald, Peterson, Thomas C., Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, David, Pinzon, Jorge E., Pitts, Michael C., Proshutinsky, A., Quegan, S., Quintana, Juan, Quintero, Alexander, Rabe, B., Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Rayner, Darren, Rayner, Nick A., Raynolds, Martha K., Razuvaev, Vyacheslav N., Reagan, James R., Reid, Phillip, Renwick, James A., Revadekar, Jayashree, Reynolds, Richard W., Richter-Menge, Jacqueline, Rignot, Eric, Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rogers, Mark, Romanovsky, Vladimir, Romero-Cruz, Fernando, Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen, Rossi, Shawn, Rutledge, Glenn, Saatchi, Sassan, Sabine, Christopher L., Saha, Suranjana, Sanchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sato, Hitoshi, Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Schauer, U., Schemm, Jae, Schmid, Claudia, Schneider, Philipp, Schueller, Dominique, Sensoy, Serhat, Sharp, Martin, Shaver, Gus R., Shiklomanov, Alexander, Shiklomanov, N., Shimada, Koji, Siegel, David A., Simmons, Adrian, Skansi, Maria, Smith, Adam, Smith, Cathy, Smith, S., Smith, Thomas M., Sokolov, Vladimir, Spence, Jacqueline M., Srivastava, Arvind Kumar, Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Steele, Mike, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stephenson, Tannecia S., Stolarski, Richard S., Tahani, Lloyd, Takahashi, Taro, Taylor, Michael A., Thepaut, Jean-Noel, Thiaw, Wassila M., Thorne, Peter W., Timmermans, M. L., Tobin, Skie, Toole, John, Trewin, Blair C., Trigo, Ricardo M., Tucker, Compton J., Tweedie, Craig E., As, D., Wal, R. S. W., A, Ronald J., Werf, G. R., Vautard, Robert, Vieira, G., Vincent, Lucie A., Vinther, Lucie A., Vinther, B., Vose, Russell, Wagner, Wolfgang, Wahr, John, Walker, David A., Walsh, John, Wang, Chunzai, Wang, Junhong, Wang, Lei, Wang, Muyin, Wang, Sheng-Hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Weaver, Scott, Webber, Patrick J., Weber, Mark, Weller, Robert A., Weyman, James, Whitewood, Robert, Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Willett, Katharine M., Williams, W., Willis, Joshua K., Wolken, Gabriel, Wong, Takmeng, Woodgate, Rebecca, Woodworth, Philip, Wovrosh, Alex J., Xue, Yan, Michiyo Yamamoto-Kawai, Yin, Xungang, Yu, Lisan, Zhang, Liangying, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, L., Zhou, Xinjia, and Zimmermann, S.

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 13. Climate action, Earth science, Environmental science, Thermal state, 14. Life underwater, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 16. Peace & justice, Permafrost, 01 natural sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Several large-scale climate patterns influenced climate conditions and weather patterns across the globe during 2010. The transition from a warm El Niño phase at the beginning of the year to a cool La Niña phase by July contributed to many notable events, ranging from record wetness across much of Australia to historically low Eastern Pacific basin and near-record high North Atlantic basin hurricane activity. The remaining five main hurricane basins experienced below- to well-below-normal tropical cyclone activity. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation was a major driver of Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns during 2009/10 winter and again in late 2010. It contributed to record snowfall and unusually low temperatures over much of northern Eurasia and parts of the United States, while bringing above-normal temperatures to the high northern latitudes. The February Arctic Oscillation Index value was the most negative since records began in 1950. The 2010 average global land and ocean surface temperature was among the two warmest years on record. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate of lower latitudes. The eastern and tropical Pacific Ocean cooled about 1°C from 2009 to 2010, reflecting the transition from the 2009/10 El Niño to the 2010/11 La Niña. Ocean heat fluxes contributed to warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for the past several years have reached values consistently higher than for all prior times in the record, demonstrating the dominant role of the ocean in the Earth's energy budget. Deep and abyssal waters of Antarctic origin have also trended warmer on average since the early 1990s. Lower tropospheric temperatures typically lag ENSO surface fluctuations by two to four months, thus the 2010 temperature was dominated by the warm phase El Niño conditions that occurred during the latter half of 2009 and early 2010 and was second warmest on record. The stratosphere continued to be anomalously cool. Annual global precipitation over land areas was about five percent above normal. Precipitation over the ocean was drier than normal after a wet year in 2009. Overall, saltier (higher evaporation) regions of the ocean surface continue to be anomalously salty, and fresher (higher precipitation) regions continue to be anomalously fresh. This salinity pattern, which has held since at least 2004, suggests an increase in the hydrological cycle. Sea ice conditions in the Arctic were significantly different than those in the Antarctic during the year. The annual minimum ice extent in the Arctic—reached in September—was the third lowest on record since 1979. In the Antarctic, zonally averaged sea ice extent reached an all-time record maximum from mid-June through late August and again from mid-November through early December. Corresponding record positive Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode Indices influenced the Antarctic sea ice extents. Greenland glaciers lost more mass than any other year in the decade-long record. The Greenland Ice Sheet lost a record amount of mass, as the melt rate was the highest since at least 1958, and the area and duration of the melting was greater than any year since at least 1978. High summer air temperatures and a longer melt season also caused a continued increase in the rate of ice mass loss from small glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic. Coastal sites in Alaska show continuous permafrost warming and sites in Alaska, Canada, and Russia indicate more significant warming in relatively cold permafrost than in warm permafrost in the same geographical area. With regional differences, permafrost temperatures are now up to 2°C warmer than they were 20 to 30 years ago. Preliminary data indicate there is a high probability that 2010 will be the 20th consecutive year that alpine glaciers have lost mass. Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise and ozone depleting substances continued to decrease. Carbon dioxide increased by 2.60 ppm in 2010, a rate above both the 2009 and the 1980–2010 average rates. The global ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2009 transition period from La Niña to El Niño conditions, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, is estimated to be similar to the long-term average. The 2010 Antarctic ozone hole was among the lowest 20% compared with other years since 1990, a result of warmer-than-average temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere during austral winter between mid-July and early September.

Published
2011
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27. State of the Climate in 2014

Author

Aaron-Morrison, Arlene P., Ackerman, Steven A., Adams, Nicolaus G., Adler, Robert F., Albanil, Adelina, Alfaro, E. J., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Andreassen, L. M., Arendt, A., Arévalo, Juan, Arndt, Derek S., Arzhanova, N. M., Aschan, M. M., Azorin-Molina, César, Banzon, Viva, Bardin, M. U., Barichivich, Jonathan, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Bazo, Juan, Becker, Andreas, Bedka, Kristopher M., Behrenfeld, Michael J., Bell, Gerald D., Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Bernhard, G., Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bettolli, María L., Bhatt, U. S., Bidegain, Mario, Bill, Brian D., Billheimer, Sam, Bissolli, Peter, Blake, Eric S., Blunden, Jessica, Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Boudet, Dagne, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Calderón, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Jayaka D., Cappelen, J., Carrasco, Gualberto, Carter, Brendan R., Chambers, Don P., Chandler, Elise, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, Daniel, Chung, E. S., Cinque, Kathy, Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A., Cogley, J. G., Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Copland, L., Cosca, Catherine E., Cross, Jessica N., Crotwell, Molly J., Crouch, Jake, Davis, Sean M., De Eyto, Elvira, De Jeu, Richard A.M., De Laat, Jos, Degasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Destin, Dale, Di Girolamo, Larry, Di Giuseppe, F., Diamond, Howard J., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolgov, A. V., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Donat, Markus G., Dong, Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Dortch, Quay, Doucette, Greg, Drozdov, D. S., Ducklow, Hugh, Dunn, Robert J.H., Durán-Quesada, Ana M., Dutton, Geoff S., Ebrahim, A., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Espinoza, Jhan C., Etienne-Leblanc, Sheryl, Evans, Thomas E., Famiglietti, James S., Farrell, S., Fateh, S., Fausto, Robert S., Fedaeff, Nava, Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Fogarty, Chris T., Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris, Fonseca, C., Fossheim, M., Foster, Michael J., Fountain, Andrew, Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Garzoli, Silvia, Gerland, S., Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Gomez, R. Sorbonne, Goni, Gustavo, Goto, A., Grooß, J. U., Gruber, Alexander, Guard, Charles Chip, Gugliemin, Mauro, Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, J. M., Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hakkarainen, J., Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Harris, Ian, Heidinger, Andrew K., Heikkilä, A., Heil, A., Heim, Richard R., Hendricks, S., Hernández, Marieta, Hidalgo, Hugo G., Hilburn, Kyle, Ho, Shu Peng Ben, Holmes, R. M., Hu, Zeng Zhen, Huang, Boyin, Huelsing, Hannah K., Huffman, George J., Hughes, C., Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J. A., Ingvaldsen, R. B., Inness, Antje, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jiménez, C., Jin, Xiangze, Johannesen, E., John, Viju, Johnsen, B., Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C., Jones, Philip D., Joseph, Annie C., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, Johannes W., Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A., Keller, Linda M., Kendon, Mike, Kennedy, John, Kerr, Kenneth, Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. J., Kimberlain, Todd B., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Kobayashi, Shinya, Kohler, J., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kovacs, K. M., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Kudela, Raphael, Kumar, Arun, Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lander, Mark A., Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Lantz, Kathleen, Lazzara, Matthew A., Lemons, P., Leuliette, Eric, L’Heureux, Michelle, Lieser, Jan L., Lin, I. I., Liu, Hongxing, Liu, Yinghui, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Lo Monaco, Claire, Long, Craig S., López Álvarez, Luis Alfonso, Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing Jia, Luojus, K., Lydersen, C., Lyman, John M., Maberly, Stephen C., Maddux, Brent C., Malheiros Ramos, Andrea, Malkova, G. V., Manney, G., Marcellin, Vernie, Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, José A., Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martínez-Güingla, Rodney, Massom, Robert A., Mata, Mauricio M., Mathis, Jeremy T., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, McBride, Charlotte, McCabe, M. F., McCarthy, M., McClelland, J. W., McGree, Simon, McVicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl A., Meier, W., Meinen, Christopher S., Mekonnen, A., Menéndez, Melisa, Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Metzl, N., Minnis, Patrick, Miralles, Diego G., Mistelbauer, T., Mitchum, Gary T., Monselesan, Didier, Monteiro, Pedro, Montzka, Stephen A., Morice, Colin, Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Nash, Eric R., Naveira-Garabato, Alberto C., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, Paul A., Nieto, Juan José, Noetzli, Jeannette, O’Neel, S., Osborn, Tim J., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Parinussa, Robert M., Park, E. Hyung, Parker, David, Parrington, M., Parsons, A. Rost, Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-Ramírez, Reynaldo, Paterson, Andrew M., Paulik, Christoph, Pearce, Petra R., Pelto, Mauri S., Peng, Liang, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, David, Pinty, Bernard, Pitts, Michael C., Pons, M. R., Porter, Avalon O., Primicerio, R., Proshutinsky, A., Quegan, Sean, Quintana, Juan, Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Randriamarolaza, L., Razuvaev, Vyacheslav N., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Rémy, Samuel, Renwick, James A., Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richter-Menge, J., Riffler, Michael, Rimmer, Alon, Rintoul, Steve, Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rodríguez Solís, José L., Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Roth, Chris, Rusak, James A., Sabine, Christopher L., Sallée, Jean Bapiste, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Schemm, Jae, Schladow, S. Geoffrey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schmidtko, Sunke, Schreck, Carl J., Selkirk, H. B., Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Setzer, Alberto, Sharp, M., Shaw, Adrian, Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, A. I., Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Siegel, David A., Signorini, Sergio R., Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Smeets, C. J.P.P., Smith, Sharon L., Spence, Jaqueline M., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, José L., Stengel, Martin, Stennett-Brown, Roxann, Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan, Streletskiy, D. A., Sun-Mack, Sunny, Swart, Sebastiaan, Sweet, William, Talley, Lynne D., Tamar, Gerard, Tank, S. E., Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Teubner, Katrin, Thoman, R. L., Thompson, Philip, Thomson, L., Timmermans, M. L., Tirnanes, Joaquin A., Tobin, Skie, Trachte, Katja, Trainer, Vera L., Tretiakov, M., Trewin, Blair C., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, M., Van As, D., Van De Wal, R. S.W., van der A., Ronald J., Van Der Schalie, Robin, Van Der Schrier, Gerard, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Velicogna, I., Verburg, Piet, Vigneswaran, Bala, Vincent, Lucie A., Volkov, Denis, Vose, Russell S., Wagner, Wolfgang, Wåhlin, Anna, Wahr, J., Walsh, J., Wang, Chunzai, Wang, Junhong, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Sheng Hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Weller, Robert A., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Whitewood, Robert, Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Williams, Michael J.M., Willie, Shem, Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Wouters, B., Xue, Yan, Yamada, Ryuji, Yim, So Young, Yin, Xungang, Young, Steven H., Yu, Lisan, Zahid, H., Zambrano, Eduardo, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhou, Lin, Ziemke, Jerry R., Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, Gilbert, Kristin, Maycock, Tom, Osborne, Susan, Sprain, Mara, Veasey, Sara W., Ambrose, Barbara J., Griffin, Jessicca, Misch, Deborah J., Riddle, Deborah B., Young, Teresa, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Earth and Climate

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Perspective (graphical), 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, El Niño Southern Oscillation, 13. Climate action, Climatology, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Environmental science, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Most of the dozens of essential climate variables monitored each year in this report continued to follow their long-term trends in 2014, with several setting new records. Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-the major greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-once again all reached record high average atmospheric concentrations for the year. Carbon dioxide increased by 1.9 ppm to reach a globally averaged value of 397.2 ppm for 2014. Altogether, 5 major and 15 minor greenhouse gases contributed 2.94 W m-2 of direct radiative forcing, which is 36% greater than their contributions just a quarter century ago. Accompanying the record-high greenhouse gas concentrations was nominally the highest annual global surface temperature in at least 135 years of modern record keeping, according to four independent observational analyses. The warmth was distributed widely around the globe's land areas, Europe observed its warmest year on record by a large margin, with close to two dozen countries breaking their previous national temperature records; many countries in Asia had annual temperatures among their 10 warmest on record; Africa reported above-average temperatures across most of the continent throughout 2014; Australia saw its third warmest year on record, following record heat there in 2013; Mexico had its warmest year on record; and Argentina and Uruguay each had their second warmest year on record. Eastern North America was the only major region to observe a below-average annual temperature. But it was the oceans that drove the record global surface temperature in 2014. Although 2014 was largely ENSO-neutral, the globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record. The warmth was particularly notable in the North Pacific Ocean where SST anomalies signaled a transition from a negative to positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. In the winter of 2013/14, unusually warm water in the northeast Pacific was associated with elevated ocean heat content anomalies and elevated sea level in the region. Globally, upper ocean heat content was record high for the year, reflecting the continued increase of thermal energy in the oceans, which absorb over 90% of Earth's excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing. Owing to both ocean warming and land ice melt contributions, global mean sea level in 2014 was also record high and 67 mm greater than the 1993 annual mean, when satellite altimetry measurements began. Sea surface salinity trends over the past decade indicate that salty regions grew saltier while fresh regions became fresher, suggestive of an increased hydrological cycle over the ocean expected with global warming. As in previous years, these patterns are reflected in 2014 subsurface salinity anomalies as well. With a now decade-long trans-basin instrument array along 26°N, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows a decrease in transport of-4.2 ± 2.5 Sv decade-1. Precipitation was quite variable across the globe. On balance, precipitation over the world's oceans was above average, while below average across land surfaces. Drought continued in southeastern Brazil and the western United States. Heavy rain during April-June led to devastating floods in Canada's Eastern Prairies. Above-normal summer monsoon rainfall was observed over the southern coast of West Africa, while drier conditions prevailed over the eastern Sahel. Generally, summer monsoon rainfall over eastern Africa was above normal, except in parts of western South Sudan and Ethiopia. The south Asian summer monsoon in India was below normal, with June record dry. Across the major tropical cyclone basins, 91 named storms were observed during 2014, above the 1981-2010 global average of 82. The Eastern/Central Pacific and South Indian Ocean basins experienced significantly above-normal activity in 2014; all other basins were either at or below normal. The 22 named storms in the Eastern/Central Pacific was the basin's most since 1992. Similar to 2013, the North Atlantic season was quieter than most years of the last two decades with respect to the number of storms, despite the absence of El Niño conditions during both years. In higher latitudes and at higher elevations, increased warming continued to be visible in the decline of glacier mass balance, increasing permafrost temperatures, and a deeper thawing layer in seasonally frozen soil. In the Arctic, the 2014 temperature over land areas was the fourth highest in the 115-year period of record and snow melt occurred 20-30 days earlier than the 1998-2010 average. The Greenland Ice Sheet experienced extensive melting in summer 2014. The extent of melting was above the 1981-2010 average for 90% of the melt season, contributing to the second lowest average summer albedo over Greenland since observations began in 2000 and a record-low albedo across the ice sheet for August. On the North Slope of Alaska, new record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at four of five permafrost observatories. In September, Arctic minimum sea ice extent was the sixth lowest since satellite records began in 1979. The eight lowest sea ice extents during this period have occurred in the last eight years. Conversely, in the Antarctic, sea ice extent countered its declining trend and set several new records in 2014, including record high monthly mean sea ice extent each month from April to November. On 20 September, a record large daily Antarctic sea ice extent of 20.14 × 106 km2 occurred. The 2014 Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole was 20.9 million km2 when averaged from 7 September to 13 October, the sixth smallest on record and continuing a decrease, albeit statistically insignificant, in area since 1998.

Published
2015

28. Caribbean climate change vulnerability: Lessons from an aggregate index approach.

Author

Stennett-Brown, Roxann K., Stephenson, Tannecia S., and Taylor, Michael A.

Subjects
*CLIMATE change, *DOWNSCALING (Climatology), *ATMOSPHERIC sciences, *TIME perspective, *EARTH sciences, *HURRICANE Irma, 2017
Abstract

The study examines the potential influence of sub-regional variations in climate, and specifically heavy rain events, in determining relative vulnerabilities of locations in twelve Caribbean countries. An aggregate vulnerability index, referred to as the Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS), is created using historical demographic and socioeconomic data and climate data representing extreme rain events. Four scenarios are explored. Firstly, comparative vulnerabilities are determined when heavy rainfall is incorporated in CVS versus when it is excluded. The impact of climate change is also investigated using future climate data derived from statistical downscaling but holding demographic and socioeconomic sub-indices constant. The analysis is repeated with projections of future demographic structure from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway data (SSP3), future climate projections and constant socioeconomic. Finally, the sensitivity of the results is examined with respect to applying different weights i.e. versus using equal weights for the climate and non-climatic components of CVS as is done for the first three scenarios. Results suggest that the inclusion of historical susceptibility to rainfall extremes influences relative vulnerabilities within the Caribbean when compared to the rankings of vulnerability derived using only socioeconomic and demographic inputs. In some cases significant increases in relative rankings are noted. Projected changes in the intensity of rain events across the Caribbean region in the 2030s and 2050s, do not significantly alter the top and lowest ranked vulnerable locations when demographic and socioeconomic indices are held constant. Changes may however occur in the order of the top ranked locations dependent on scenario and time slice. In general, future shifts in relative vulnerabilities were found to be dependent on (i) changes in both future climate and demographic scenarios, (ii) the time horizons being considered, and (iii) the weighting assigned to climate in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
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29. State of the Climate in 2012

Author

Blunden, Jessica, Arndt, Derek S., Achberger, Christine, Ackerman, Stephen A., Albanil, Adelina, Alexander, P., Alfaro, Eric J., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Ambenje, Peter, Andrianjafinirina, Solonomenjanahary, Antonov, John, Aravequia, Jose A., Arendt, A., Arevalo, Juan, Ashik, I., Atheru, Zachary, Banzon, Viva, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Barriopedro, David E., Beard, Grant, Becker, Andreas, Behrenfeld, Michael J., Bell, Gerald D., Benedetti, Angela, Bernhard, Germar, Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bhatt, U., Bidegain, Mario, Bindoff, Nathan, Bissolli, Peter, Blake, Eric S., Booneeady, Raj, Bosilovich, Michael, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Brown, L., Bruhwiler, Lori, Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Burrows, John, Calderon, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Jayaka, Cao, Y., Cappelen, J., Carrasco, Gualberto, Chambers, Don P., Chang A, L., Chappell, Petra, Chehade, Wissam, Cheliah, Muthuvel, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Ciais, Phillipe, Coelho, Caio A. S., Cogley, J. G., Colwell, Steve, Cross, J. N., Crouch, Jake, Cunningham, Stuart A., Dacic, Milan, Jeu, Richard A. M., Dekaa, Francis S., Demircan, Mesut, Derksen, C., Diamond, Howard J., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Dong Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Drozdov, D. S., Duguay, Claude R., Dunn, Robert J. H., Duran-Quesada, Ana M., Dutton, Geoff S., Ehmann, Christian, Elkins, James W., Euscategui, Christian, Famiglietti, James S., Fang Fan, Fauchereau, Nicolas, Feely, Richard A., Fekete, Balazs M., Fenimore, Chris, Fioletov, Vitali E., Fogarty, Chris T., Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris K., Foster, Michael J., Frajka-Williams, Eleanor, Franz, Bryan A., Frith, Stacey H., Frolov, I., Ganter, Catherine, Garzoli, Silvia, Geai, M. -L, Gerland, S., Gitau, Wilson, Gleason, Karin L., Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Goni, Gustavo, Good, Simon A., Gottschalck, Jonathan, Gregg, Margarita C., Griffiths, Georgina, Grooss, Jens-Uwe, Guard, Charles Chip, Gupta, Shashi K., Hall, Bradley D., Halpert, Michael S., Harada, Yayoi, Hauri, C., Heidinger, Andrew K., Heikkila, Anu, Heim, Richard R., Heimbach, Patrick, Hidalgo, Hugo G., Hilburn, Kyle, Ho, Shu-Peng, Hobbs, Will R., Holgate, Simon, Hovsepyan, Anahit, Hu Zeng-Zhen, Hughes, P., Hurst, Dale F., Ingvaldsen, R., Inness, Antje, Jaimes, Ena, Jakobsson, Martin, James, Adamu I., Jeffries, Martin O., Johns, William E., Johnsen, Bjorn, Johnson, Gregory C., Johnson, Bryan, Jones, Luke T., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, Johannes W., Kamga, Andre, Kang, Kyun-Kuk, Kanzow, Torsten O., Kao, Hsun-Ying, Keller, Linda M., Kennedy, John J., Key, J., Khatiwala, Samar, Pour, H. Kheyrollah, Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Kijazi, Agnes, Kikuchi, T., Kim, B. -M, Kim, S. -J, Kimberlain, Todd B., Knaff, John A., Korshunova, Natalia N., Koskela, T., Kousky, Vernon E., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, David P., Krishfield, R., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Kumar, Arun, Lagerloef, Gary S. E., Lakkala, K., Lander, Mark A., Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Laurila, T., Lazzara, Matthew A., Lee, Craig, Leuliette, Eric, Levitus, Sydney, L Heureux, Michelle, Lieser, Jan, Lin, I-I, Liu, Y. Y., Liu, Y., Liu Hongxing, Liu Yanju, Lobato-Sanchez, Rene, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Loeng, H., Long, Craig S., Lorrey, Andrew M., Luhunga, P., Lumpkin, Rick, Luo Jing-Jia, Lyman, John M., Macdonald, Alison M., Maddux, Brent C., Malekela, C., Manney, Gloria, Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, Jose A., Marotzke, Jochem, Marra, John J., Martinez-Gueingla, Rodney, Massom, Robert A., Mathis, Jeremy T., Mcbride, Charlotte, Mccarthy, Gerard, Mcvicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl, Meier, W., Meinen, Christopher S., Menendez, Melisa, Merrifield, Mark A., Mitchard, Edward, Mitchum, Gary T., Montzka, Stephen A., Morcrette, Jean-Jacques, Mote, Thomas, Muehle, Jens, Muehr, Bernhard, Mullan, A. Brett, Mueller, Rolf, Nash, Eric R., Nerem, R. Steven, Newlin, Michele L., Newman, Paul A., Ng Ongolo, H., Nieto, Juan Jose, Nishino, S., Nitsche, Helga, Noetzli, Jeannette, Oberman, N. G., Obregon, Andre, Ogallo, Laban A., Oludhe, Christopher S., Omar, Mohamed I., Overland, James, Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Parinussa, Robert M., Park, Geun-Ha, Park, E-Hyung, David Berry, Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-Ramirez, Reynaldo, Pelto, Mauri S., Penalba, Olga, Peng, L., Perovich, Don K., Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, David, Pickart, R., Pinty, Bernard, Pitts, Michael C., Purkey, Sarah G., Quegan, Shaun, Quintana, Juan, Rabe, B., Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh, Raholijao, Nirivololona, Raiva, I., Rajeevan, Madhavan, Ramiandrisoa, Voahanginirina, Ramos, Alexandre, Ranivoarissoa, Sahondra, Rayner, Nick A., Rayner, Darren, Razuveav, Vyacheslav N., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Renwick, James, Revedekar, Jayashree, Richter-Menge, Jacqueline, Rivera, Ingrid L., Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Sabine, Christopher L., Salvador, Mozar A., Sanchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sasgen, I., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Schauer, U., Schemm, Jae, Schlosser, P., Schmid, Claudia, Schreck, Carl, Semiletov, Igor, Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Setzer, Alberto, Severinghaus, Jeffrey, Shakhova, Natalia, Sharp, M., Shiklomanov, Nicolai I., Siegel, David A., Silva, Viviane B. S., Silva, Frabricio D. S., Sima, Fatou, Simeonov, Petio, Simmonds, I., Simmons, Adrian, Skansi, Maria, Smeed, David A., Smethie, W. M., Smith, Adam B., Smith, Cathy, Smith, Sharon L., Smith, Thomas M., Sokolov, V., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Steele, M., Steffen, Konrad, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stephenson, Tannecia, Su, J., Svendby, T., Sweet, William, Takahashi, Taro, Tanabe, Raymond M., Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, Marco, Teng, William L., Thepaut, Jean-Noel, Thiaw, Wassila M., Thoman, R., Thompson, Philip, Thorne, Peter W., Timmermans, M. -L, Tobin, Skie, Toole, J., Trewin, Blair C., Trigo, Ricardo M., Trotman, Adrian, Tschudi, M., Wal, Roderik S. W., Werf, Guido R., Vautard, Robert, Vazquez, J. L., Vieira, Goncalo, Vincent, Lucie, Vose, Russ S., Wagner, Wolfgang W., Wahr, John, Walsh, J., Wang Junhong, Wang Chunzai, Wang, M., Wang Sheng-Hung, Wang Lei, Wanninkhof, Rik, Weaver, Scott, Weber, Mark, Werdell, P. Jeremy, Whitewood, Robert, Wijffels, Susan, Wilber, Anne C., Wild, J. D., Willett, Kate M., Williams, W., Willis, Joshua K., Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Woodgate, R., Worthy, D., Wouters, B., Wovrosh, Alex J., Xue Yan, Yamada, Ryuji, Yin Zungang, Yu Lisan, Zhang Liangying, Zhang Peiqun, Zhao Lin, Zhao, J., Zhong, W., Ziemke, Jerry, Zimmermann, S., ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 13. Climate action, Photosynthetically active radiation, Climate, Dynamics (mechanics), Data_FILES, Environmental science, Fraction (chemistry), 14. Life underwater, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Remote sensing
Abstract

For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.

Published
2013

30. Future Caribbean temperature and rainfall extremes from statistical downscaling.

Author

Stennett‐Brown, Roxann K., Jones, Jhordanne J. P., Stephenson, Tannecia S., and Taylor, Michael A.

Subjects
RAINFALL measurement, TEMPERATURE measurements, ATMOSPHERIC models, REGRESSION analysis
Abstract

ABSTRACT The Statistical Downscaling Model ( SDSM) is used to investigate future projections of daily minimum and maximum temperature extremes for 45 stations and rainfall extremes for 39 stations across the Caribbean and neighbouring regions. Models show good skill in reproducing the monthly climatology of the mean daily temperatures and the frequencies of warm days, warm nights, cool days and cool nights between 1961 and 2001. Models for rainfall exhibit lower skill but generally capture the monthly climatology of mean daily rainfall and the spatial distribution of the mean annual maximum number of consecutive dry days ( CDD) and mean annual count of days with daily rainfall above 10 mm ( R10). Future projections suggest an increase (decrease) in warm (cool) days and nights by 2071-2099 under the A2 and B2 scenarios relative to 1961-1990. An increase in CDD is suggested for most stations except some eastern Caribbean stations and Bahamas. Decreases in RX1 (monthly maximum 1-day precipitation), R10 and R95p (annual total rainfall above the 95th percentile) are also suggested for some northern Caribbean locations and Belize under the A2 scenario, compared to a mixture of increases and decreases for the eastern Caribbean. Atmospheric predictors used in SDSM correlate well with known oceanic and atmospheric drivers of Caribbean climate, e.g. the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ( AMO) on a seasonal timescale. Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the Caribbean low level jet appear to have significant influence on Caribbean temperature and rainfall extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2017
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31. WCRP COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX): a diagnostic MIP for CMIP6.

Author

Gutowski Jr., William J., Giorgi, Filippo, Timbal, Bertrand, Frigon, Anne, Jacob, Daniela, Hyun-Suk Kang, Raghavan, Krishnan, Lee, Boram, Lennard, Christopher, Nikulin, Grigory, O'Rourke, Eleanor, Rixen, Michel, Solman, Silvina, Stephenson, Tannecia, and Tangang, Fredolin

Subjects
DOWNSCALING (Climatology), ATMOSPHERIC models, CLIMATE change, GREENHOUSE gas mitigation, INFORMATION sharing
Abstract

The COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) is a diagnostic model intercomparison project (MIP) in CMIP6. CORDEX builds on a foundation of previous downscaling intercomparison projects to provide a common framework for downscaling activities around the world. The CORDEX Regional Challenges provide a focus for downscaling research and a basis for making use of CMIP6 global climate model (GCM) output to produce downscaled projected changes in regional climates and assess sources of uncertainties in the projections, all of which can potentially be distilled into climate change information for vulnerability, impacts and adaptation studies. CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies advance regional downscaling by targeting one or more of the CORDEX Regional Challenges. A CORDEX-CORE framework is planned that will produce a baseline set of homogeneous high-resolution, downscaled projections for regions worldwide. In CMIP6, CORDEX coordinates with ScenarioMIP and is structured to allow cross comparisons with HighResMIP and interaction with the CMIP6 VIACS Advisory Board. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2016
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33. Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones.

Author

McLean, Natalie Melissa, Stephenson, Tannecia Sydia, Taylor, Michael Alexander, and Campbell, Jayaka Danaco

Subjects
*METEOROLOGICAL stations, *RAINFALL, *CLIMATE change
Abstract

End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model (RCM) under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD) and extreme rainfall (R95P) than consecutive dry days (CDD), wet days (R10), and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5). Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana). Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2015
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34. Assessing the effect of domain size over the Caribbean region using the PRECIS regional climate model.

Author

Centella-Artola, Abel, Taylor, Michael, Bezanilla-Morlot, Arnoldo, Martinez-Castro, Daniel, Campbell, Jayaka, Stephenson, Tannecia, and Vichot, Alejandro

Subjects
ATMOSPHERIC models, RAINFALL, DROUGHTS, SENSITIVITY analysis, TROPICAL cyclones
Abstract

This study investigates the sensitivity of the one-way nested PRECIS regional climate model (RCM) to domain size for the Caribbean region. Simulated regional rainfall patterns from experiments using three domains with horizontal resolution of 50 km are compared with ERA reanalysis and observed datasets to determine if there is an optimal RCM configuration with respect to domain size and the ability to reproduce important observed climate features in the Caribbean. Results are presented for the early wet season (May-July) and late wet season (August-October). There is a relative insensitivity to domain size for simulating some important features of the regional circulation and key rainfall characteristics e.g. the Caribbean low level jet and the mid summer drought (MSD). The downscaled precipitation has a systematically negative precipitation bias, even when the domain was extended to the African coast to better represent circulation associated with easterly waves and tropical cyclones. The implications for optimizing modelling efforts within resource-limited regions like the Caribbean are discussed especially in the context of the region's participation in global initiatives such as CORDEX. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2015
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35. Parameterizing the FAO AquaCrop Model for Rainfed and Irrigated Field-Grown Sweet Potato.

Author

Rankine, Dale R., Cohen, Jane E., Taylor, M. A., Coy, Andre D., Simpson, Leslie A., Stephenson, Tannecia, and Lawrence, Janet L.

Abstract

Crop production in the Caribbean is dominated by small open field holdings that are almost totally reliant on rainfall. Sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas L. Lam. [Convolvulaceae]) has been identified as an important commodity to attain food and nutrition security goals of the region, particularly in light of a changing climate. The crop has high nutritional value, innate drought-tolerant properties, and can be grown with relatively low inputs. The routine use of crop models for yield optimization is largely absent in the Caribbean. In this study, an attempt was made to parameterize the FAO AquaCrop model for sweet potato for the first time. AquaCrop is a simulation model for crop water productivity, designed primarily for use in irrigation management. Parameters were developed using data from three sweet potato cultivars grown in two agroecological zones in Jamaica under rainfed and irrigated conditions. Digital photography was combined with an automated canopy estimator to track canopy development, and sample harvesting was done throughout the crop season. The overall simulation of biomass was good, with deviations of <28% for four out of six simulations, and season-long performance of the model was commendable. The simulation of yield presented more challenges, especially given the nonlinear rate of tuber development. The results, however, indicate that AquaCrop could be a useful tool for Caribbean agriculture in predicting the productivity of sweet potato under varying water availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2015
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36. Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the Caribbean region, 1961-2010.

Author

Stephenson, Tannecia S., Vincent, Lucie A., Allen, Theodore, Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., McLean, Natalie, Peterson, Thomas C., Taylor, Michael A., Aaron‐Morrison, Arlene P., Auguste, Thomas, Bernard, Didier, Boekhoudt, Joffrey R. I., Blenman, Rosalind C., Braithwaite, George C., Brown, Glenroy, Butler, Mary, Cumberbatch, Catherine J. M., Etienne‐Leblanc, Sheryl, Lake, Dale E., Martin, Delver E., and McDonald, Joan L.

Subjects
*CLIMATE change, *CLIMATOLOGY, *TEMPERATURE
Abstract

ABSTRACT A workshop was held at the University of the West Indies, Jamaica, in May 2012 to build capacity in climate data rescue and to enhance knowledge about climate change in the Caribbean region. Scientists brought their daily observational surface temperature and precipitation data from weather stations for an assessment of quality and homogeneity and for the calculation of climate indices helpful for studying climate change in their region. This study presents the trends in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Caribbean region for records spanning the 1961-2010 and 1986-2010 intervals. Overall, the results show a warming of the surface air temperature at land stations. In general, the indices based on minimum temperature show stronger warming trends than indices calculated from maximum temperature. The frequency of warm days, warm nights and extreme high temperatures has increased while fewer cool days, cool nights and extreme low temperatures were found for both periods. Changes in precipitation indices are less consistent and the trends are generally weak. Small positive trends were found in annual total precipitation, daily intensity, maximum number of consecutive dry days and heavy rainfall events particularly during the period 1986-2010. Correlations between indices and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation ( AMO) index suggest that temperature variability and, to a lesser extent, precipitation extremes are related to the AMO signal of the North Atlantic surface sea temperatures: stronger associations are found in August and September for the temperature indices and in June and October for some of the precipitation indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2014
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37. Why dry? Investigating the future evolution of the Caribbean Low Level Jet to explain projected Caribbean drying.

Author

Taylor, Michael A., Whyte, Felicia S., Stephenson, Tannecia S., and Campbell, Jayaka D.

Subjects
GLOBAL warming, CLIMATE change, GREENHOUSE effect, ENVIRONMENTAL disasters
Abstract

Under global warming the Caribbean is projected to be significantly drier by century's end during its primary rainy season from May to November. The PRECIS regional model is used to simulate the end-of-century (2071-2100) manifestation of the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global warming scenarios. The CLLJ is a feature of the Intra-American seas which during its July peak is dynamically linked to a brief mid-summer drying and interruption of the Caribbean rainy season. The regional model captures the CLLJ's present-day spatial and temporal characteristics reasonably well, simulating both the boreal winter (February) and summer (July) peaks. Under global warming there is an intensification of the CLLJ's core strength from May through November. The intensification is such that by October the CLLJ is of comparable core strength to its present-day peak in July. The persistence of the strong CLLJ beyond July and through November is linked to the perpetuation of a dry pattern in the Caribbean in the future. In contrast, the boreal winter manifestation of the CLLJ is largely unaltered in the future. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2013
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39. Future climate of the Caribbean from a regional climate model.

Author

Campbell, Jayaka D., Taylor, Michael A., Stephenson, Tannecia S., Watson, Rhodene A., and Whyte, Felicia S.

Subjects
RAINFALL, MATHEMATICAL models, GLOBAL temperature changes, EMISSIONS (Air pollution), CLIMATE change research
Abstract

Scenarios of rainfall and temperature changes for the period 2071-2100 under the A2 and B2 Special Report on Emissions scenarios are examined using the Hadley Centre Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies regional climate model. The model simulates 'present-day' (1979-1990) rainfall and temperature climatologies reasonably well, capturing the characteristic bimodality of Caribbean rainfall and the boreal summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures. Seasonal spatial patterns are also reproduced, but rainfall amounts are underestimated over the northern Caribbean island masses, including Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Temperatures over the region are also overestimated by 1-3 °C. For the period 2071-2100, temperatures are projected to increase across the region by 1-4 °C for all months irrespective of the scenario. The rainfall response varies with season with one of the more robust changes being an intensification of a gradient pattern in November-January, in which the northern Caribbean (i.e. north of 22°N) gets wetter and the southern Caribbean gets drier. There is also a robust June-October drying signal. The results point to changes in the regional circulation patterns due to the human-induced climate change and warrants further investigation. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2011
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40. Features of the Caribbean low level jet.

Author

Whyte, Felicia S., Taylor, Michael A., Stephenson, Tannecia S., and Campbell, Jayaka D.

Subjects
JET planes, WINDS, METEOROLOGICAL precipitation, WEATHER, ATMOSPHERIC circulation, CLIMATOLOGY, ATMOSPHERIC pressure, SUMMER
Abstract

This article presents a study regarding the Caribbean Low Level Jet. It discusses that the Caribbean Low Level Jet is shown to be a real and dominant climatological feature of the early summer Caribbean climate, which manifests as an intensification in the trade winds in the western Caribbean basin. The study reveals the variability in the strength and zonal extent of the Caribbean Low Level Jet which can be related to zonal sea surface temperature gradients between the eastern equatorial Pacific and the north tropical and equatorial Atlantic.

Published
2008
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41. Characterizing Bushfire Occurrences over Jamaica Using the MODIS C6 Fire Archive 2001–2019.

Author

Charlton, Candice S., Stephenson, Tannecia S., Taylor, Michael A., and Douglas, Christina A.

Subjects
*ATLANTIC multidecadal oscillation, *WILDFIRES, *FIREFIGHTING, *FIRE management
Abstract

There is an increasing need to develop bushfire monitoring and early warning systems for Jamaica and the Caribbean. However, there are few studies that examine fire variability for the region. In this study the MODIS C6 Fire Archive for 2001–2019 is used to characterize bushfire frequencies across Jamaica and to relate the variability to large-scale climate. Using additive mixed model and backward linear regression, the MODIS represents 80% and 73% of the local Jamaica Fire Brigade (JFB) data variability for 2010–2015, respectively. However, the MODIS values are smaller by a factor of approximately 30. The MODIS climatology over Jamaica reveals a primary peak in March and a secondary maximum in July, coinciding with months of minimum rainfall. A significant positive linear trend is observed for July-August bushfire events over 2001–2019 and represents 29% of the season's variability. Trends in all-island totals in other seasons or annually were not statistically significant. However, positive annual trends in Zone 2 (eastern Jamaica) are statistically significant and may support an indication that a drying trend is evolving over the east. Significant 5-year and 3.5-year periodicities are also evident for April–June and September–November variability, respectively. Southern Jamaica and particularly the parish of Clarendon, known for its climatological dryness, show the greatest fire frequencies. The study provides evidence of linkages between fire occurrences over Jamaica and oceanic and atmospheric variability over the Atlantic and Pacific. For example, all-island totals show relatively strong association with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The study suggests that development of an early warning system for bushfire frequency that includes climate indices is possible and shows strong potential for fire predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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42. The Caribbean and 1.5 °C: Is SRM an Option?

Author

Clarke, Leonardo A., Taylor, Michael A., Centella-Artola, Abel, Williams, Matthew St. M., Campbell, Jayaka D., Bezanilla-Morlot, Arnoldo, and Stephenson, Tannecia S.

Subjects
SOLAR radiation management, GLOBAL warming, QUASI-biennial oscillation (Meteorology)
Abstract

The Caribbean, along with other small island developing states (SIDS), have advocated for restricting global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the current century. Solar radiation management (SRM) may be one way to achieve this goal. This paper examines the mean Caribbean climate under various scenarios of an SRM-altered versus an SRM-unaltered world for three global warming targets, namely, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Data from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 (GeoMIP1) were examined for two SRM scenarios: the G3 experiment where there is a gradual injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the tropical lower stratosphere starting in 2020 and terminating after 50 years, and the G4 experiment where a fixed 5 Teragram (Tg) of SO2 per year is injected into the atmosphere starting in 2020 and ending after 50 years. The results show that SRM has the potential to delay attainment of the 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C global warming targets. The extent of the delay varies depending on the SRM methodology but may be beyond mid-century for the 1.5 °C goal. In comparison, however, the higher temperature thresholds are both still attained before the end of century once SRM is ceased, raising questions about the value of the initial delay. The application of SRM also significantly alters mean Caribbean climate during the global warming target years (determined for a representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) world without SRM). The Caribbean is generally cooler but drier during the 1.5 °C years and similarly cool but less dry for years corresponding to the higher temperature targets. Finally, the mean Caribbean climate at 1.5 °C differs if the global warming target is achieved under SRM versus RCP4.5. The same is true for the higher warming targets. The implications of all the results are discussed as a background for determining whether SRM represents a viable consideration for Caribbean SIDS to achieve their "1.5 to stay alive" goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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43. Generating Projections for the Caribbean at 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C from a High-Resolution Ensemble.

Author

Campbell, Jayaka D., Taylor, Michael A., Bezanilla-Morlot, Arnoldo, Stephenson, Tannecia S., Centella-Artola, Abel, Clarke, Leonardo A., and Stephenson, Kimberly A.

Subjects
ATMOSPHERIC models, ARCHIPELAGOES, PHYSICS, PREDICTION models, UNCERTAINTY
Abstract

Six members of the Hadley Centre's Perturbed Physics Ensemble for the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project are downscaled using the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) RCM (Regional Climate Model). Climate scenarios at long-term temperature goals (LTTGs) of 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial warming levels are generated for the Caribbean and six sub-regions for annual and seasonal timescales. Under a high emissions scenario, the LTTGs are attained in the mid-2020s, end of the 2030s, and the early 2050s, respectively. At 1.5 °C, the region is slightly cooler than the globe, land areas warmer than ocean, and for the later months, the north is warmer than the south. The far western and southern Caribbean including the eastern Caribbean island chain dry at 1.5 °C (up to 50%). At 2.0 °C, the warming and drying intensify and there is a reversal of a wet tendency in parts of the north Caribbean. Drying in the rainfall season accounts for much of the annual change. There is limited further intensification of the region-wide drying at 2.5 °C. Changes in wind strength in the Caribbean low-level jet region may contribute to the patterns seen. There are implications for urgent and targeted adaptation planning in the Caribbean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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44. Evaluation of Sixteen Gridded Precipitation Datasets over the Caribbean Region Using Gauge Observations.

Author

Centella-Artola, Abel, Bezanilla-Morlot, Arnoldo, Taylor, Michael A., Herrera, Dimitris A., Martinez-Castro, Daniel, Gouirand, Isabelle, Sierra-Lorenzo, Maibys, Vichot-Llano, Alejandro, Stephenson, Tannecia, Fonseca, Cecilia, Campbell, Jayaka, and Alpizar, Milena

Subjects
PRECIPITATION gauges, METEOROLOGICAL stations, ATMOSPHERIC models, EARTH stations, DOWNSCALING (Climatology)
Abstract

The existence of several gridded precipitation products (GPP) has facilitated studies related to climate change, climate modeling, as well as a better understanding of the physical processes underpinning this key variable. Due to complexities in estimating rainfall, gridded datasets exhibit different levels of accuracy across regions, even when they are developed at relatively high resolution or using sophisticated procedures. The performance of 16 GPP are evaluated over the Caribbean region, which includes the Caribbean Islands, and portions of Central South America. Monthly data for sixty weather stations are used as a reference for the period 1983–2010. The 16 GPP include six products based on station data only, two that combine ground station and satellite information, two merging station and reanalysis information, four based on reanalysis, and two using multisource information. The temporal resolution of the GPP ranged between daily and monthly and spatial resolution from 0.033° to 0.5°. The methodological approach employed combined a comparison of regional and sub-regional precipitation annual cycles, the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) index, as well as several metrics derived from the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Overall, the best performances were obtained from GPCC025 and MSWEP2, likely reflecting the positive impact of the large number of station data utilized in their development. It is also demonstrated that a higher spatial resolution does not always mean better accuracy. There is a need for this kind of assessment when undertaking climate studies in regions like the Caribbean where resolution is a significant consideration. ERA5 performed best among the reanalyses analyzed and has the potential to be used to develop regionally based GPP by applying bias correction or downscaling techniques. The methodological approach employed provides a comprehensive and robust evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of GPP in the Caribbean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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46. CORDEX general status.

Author

Lake, Irene, Giorgi, Filippo, Gutowski, William, Jacob, Daniela, Lennard, Christopher, Stephenson, Tannecia, Tangang, Fredolin, Frigon, Anne, Jayanarayaynan, Sanajay, Hyun-Suk Kang, Solman, Silvina, Timbal, Bertrand, and NIkulin, Grigpory

Published
2018

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