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BackgroundMore intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected in the future under a warming climate scenario, but little is known about their mortality effect pattern across countries and over decades. We aim to evaluate the TC-specific mortality risks, periods of concern (POC) and characterize the spatiotemporal pattern and exposure-response (ER) relationships on a multicountry scale.Methods and findingsDaily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality among the general population were collected from 494 locations in 18 countries or territories during 1980 to 2019. Daily TC exposures were defined when the maximum sustained windspeed associated with a TC was ≥34 knots using a parametric wind field model at a 0.5° × 0.5° resolution. We first estimated the TC-specific mortality risks and POC using an advanced flexible statistical framework of mixed Poisson model, accounting for the population changes, natural variation, seasonal and day of the week effects. Then, a mixed meta-regression model was used to pool the TC-specific mortality risks to estimate the overall and country-specific ER relationships of TC characteristics (windspeed, rainfall, and year) with mortality. Overall, 47.7 million all-cause, 15.5 million cardiovascular, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths and 382 TCs were included in our analyses. An overall average POC of around 20 days was observed for TC-related all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality, with relatively longer POC for the United States of America, Brazil, and Taiwan (>30 days). The TC-specific relative risks (RR) varied substantially, ranging from 1.04 to 1.42, 1.07 to 1.77, and 1.12 to 1.92 among the top 100 TCs with highest RRs for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. At country level, relatively higher TC-related mortality risks were observed in Guatemala, Brazil, and New Zealand for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. We found an overall monotonically increasing and approximately linear ER curve of TC-related maximum sustained windspeed and cumulative rainfall with mortality, with heterogeneous patterns across countries and regions. The TC-related mortality risks were generally decreasing from 1980 to 2019, especially for the Philippines, Taiwan, and the USA, whereas potentially increasing trends in TC-related all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks were observed for Japan.ConclusionsThe TC mortality risks and POC varied greatly across TC events, locations, and countries. To minimize the TC-related health burdens, targeted strategies are particularly needed for different countries and regions, integrating epidemiological evidence on region-specific POC and ER curves that consider across-TC variability.

Abstract Background Recent studies linking low levels of nitrate in drinking water to colorectal cancer have raised public concerns over nitrate contamination. The aim of this study was to analyze the media discourse on the potential human health hazard of nitrates in drinking water in a high-income country with a large livestock industry: New Zealand (NZ). Methods Searches of media sources (“major newspapers”) held by the Factiva database for the NZ setting in the five-year period 17 December 2016 to 20 December 2021. Results The largest number of media items was observed for 2017 (n = 108), the year of a NZ general election, with a notable decrease in 2020 (n = 20) that was likely due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which dominated health media. However, the percentage of these media items with a health focus steadily increased over time, from 11.1% of all articles in 2017 to 51.2% in 2021. The most commonly mentioned health hazard was colorectal cancer, followed by methemoglobinemia. The temporal pattern of media items suggests that the release of scientific studies and scholarly blogs was associated with the publication of subsequent media items. Major stakeholders involved in the discourse included representatives of local and central government, environmental and recreational interest groups, researchers, local residents, agricultural interest groups, and health organizations. Māori (Indigenous New Zealanders) values or perspectives were rarely mentioned. Conclusions Analysis of major newspapers for a five-year period indicated that a wide range of expert comment and opinions were made available to the public and policy makers on the issue of nitrates in water. While many different stakeholder views were captured in the media discourse, there is scope for the media to better report the views of Māori on this topic. There is also a need for articles detailing the health issues to also refer to the environmental, recreational, and cultural aspects of protecting water quality to ensure that the public, policy makers, and regulators are aware of co-benefits.

Abstract Objective: There is growing epidemiological evidence linking nitrate contamination to adverse health outcomes. Health concerns may drive consumers towards bottled water, however, nitrate levels in bottled water are not readily available. Methods: We tested water samples from the 10 most popular brands using a TriOS OPUS UV optical nitrate sensor. Results: Overall, all bottled water brands tested returned nitrate levels below 4.4 mg/L NO3. Conclusions: The growing health concerns associated with nitrate contamination suggest that increased reporting of water quality is required. Implications for public health: Mandatory reporting of water quality laboratory reports by bottled water producers would improve transparency to consumers and help public health researchers track potential threats to water quality as new evidence emerges.

Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government implemented nationwide traffic restrictions and self-quarantine measures from January 23 to April 8 (in Wuhan), 2020. We estimated how these measures impacted ambient air pollution and the subsequent consequences on health and the health-related economy in 367 Chinese cities. A random forests modeling was used to predict the business-as-usual air pollution concentrations in 2020, after adjusting for the impact of long-term trend and weather conditions. We calculated changes in mortality attributable to reductions in air pollution in early 2020 and health-related economic benefits based on the value of statistical life (VSL). Compared with the business-as-usual scenario, we estimated 1239 (95% CI: 844–1578) PM2.5-related deaths were avoided, as were 2777 (95% CI: 1565–3995) PM10-related deaths, 1587 (95% CI: 98–3104) CO-related deaths, 4711 (95% CI: 3649–5781) NO2-related deaths, 215 (95% CI: 116–314) O3-related deaths, and 1088 (95% CI: 774–1421) SO2-related deaths. Based on the reduction in deaths, economic benefits for in PM2.5, PM10, CO, NO2, O3, and SO2 were 1.22, 2.60, 1.36, 4.05, 0.20, and 0.95 billion USD, respectively. Our findings demonstrate the substantial benefits in human health and health-related costs due to improved urban air quality during the COVID lockdown period in China in early 2020.

Summary: Background: Mortality due to enteric infections is projected to increase because of global warming; however, the different temperature sensitivities of major enteric pathogens have not yet been considered in projections on a global scale. We aimed to project global temperature-attributable enteric infection mortality under various future scenarios of sociodemographic development and climate change. Methods: In this modelling study, we generated global projections in two stages. First, we forecasted baseline mortality from ten enteropathogens (non-typhoidal salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, cholera, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli, typhoid, rotavirus, norovirus, and Cryptosporidium) under several future sociodemographic development and health investment scenarios (ie, pessimistic, intermediate, and optimistic). We then estimated the mortality change from baseline attributable to global warming using the product of projected annual temperature anomalies and pathogen-specific temperature sensitivities. Findings: We estimated that in the period 2080–95, the global mean number of temperature-attributable deaths due to enteric infections could be as low as 6599 (95% empirical CI 5441–7757) under the optimistic sociodemographic development and climate change scenario, or as high as 83 888 (67 760–100 015) under the pessimistic scenario. Most of the projected temperature-attributable deaths were from shigellosis, cryptosporidiosis, and typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Considerable reductions in the number of attributable deaths were from viral infections, such as rotaviral and noroviral enteritis, which resulted in net reductions in attributable enteric infection mortality under optimistic scenarios for Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and the Pacific. Interpretation: Temperature-attributable mortality could increase under warmer climate and unfavourable sociodemographic conditions. Mitigation policies for limiting global warming and sociodemographic development policies for low-income and middle-income countries might help reduce mortality from enteric infections in the future. Funding: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Japan Science and Technology Agency, and Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness.

Heavy rainfall is associated with increased risk of waterborne disease. However, it is not known whether the risk increment differs between wet and dry regions. We examined this question in New Zealand, which has a wide geographical variation of annual rainfall totals (10th–90th percentile difference ≥3000 mm).We conducted a nested case-crossover study within a prospective child cohort (born in 2009–2010) for assessing transient health effects when modified by longitudinal exposures to rainfall. Short-term heavy rainfall effects on hospitalizations due to enteric bacterial and viral infectious causes at lag of 0–14 days were assessed using a Cox regression model adjusted for daily temperature, relative humidity and evapotranspiration. We derived quantiles of time-weighted long-term rainfall levels at the children’s homes and these were added as an interaction term to the short-term effect model.Hospitalization risks were higher two days after heavy rainfall days (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.73 [1.10–2.70]). The lowest-observable-adverse-effect-level was detected at the 94th percentile of daily rainfall total. Hospital admissions 1–2 days after heavy rainfall increased most in locations with the lowest and highest long-term rainfall. An interaction of this kind between short-term weather and long-term climate has not been reported previously. It is relevant to climate change risk assessments given global projections of increasing intensity of precipitation, against a background of more severe, and possibly more frequent, droughts and flooding.

Background: The Global Climate Risk Index 2020 ranked Vietnam as the sixth country in the world most affected by climate variability and extreme weather events over the period 1999-2018. Sea level rise and extreme weather events are projected to be more severe in coming decades, which, without additional action, will increase the number of people at risk of climate-sensitive diseases, challenging the health system. This article summaries the results of a health vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment conducted in Vietnam as evidences for development of the National Climate Change Health Adaptation Plan to 2030. Methods: The assessment followed the first 4 steps outlined in the World Health Organization’s Guidelines in conducting “Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments.” A framework and list of indicators were developed for semi-quantitative assessment for the period 2013 to 2017. Three sets of indicators were selected to assess the level of (1) exposure to climate change and extreme weather events, (2) health sensitivity, and (3) adaptation capacity. The indicators were rated and analyzed using a scoring system from 1 to 5. Results: The results showed that climate-sensitive diseases were common, including dengue fever, diarrheal, influenza, etc, with large burdens of disease that are projected to increase. From 2013 to 2017, the level of “exposure” to climate change–related hazards of the health sector was “high” to “very high,” with an average score from 3.5 to 4.4 (out of 5.0). For “health sensitivity,” the scores decreased from 3.8 in 2013 to 3.5 in 2017, making the overall rating as “high.” For “adaptive capacity,” the scores were from 4.0 to 4.1, which meant adaptive capacity was “very low.” The overall V&A rating in 2013 was “very high risk” (score 4.1) and “high risk” with scores of 3.8 in 2014 and 3.7 in 2015 to 2017. Conclusions: Adaptation actions of the health sector are urgently needed to reduce the vulnerability to climate change in coming decades. Eight adaptation solutions, among recommendations of V&A assessment, were adopted in the National Health Climate Change Adaptation Plan.

Abstract Strong demand for dairy products has led to a global increase in dairy production. In many parts of the world, dairy systems are undergoing rapid intensification. While increased production may contribute to food security, higher dairy stocking rates in some regions have resulted in increased pressure on natural resources with the potential to affect public health and wellbeing. The aim of this review was to identify and describe the potential health harms and benefits associated with dairy production and consumption. Electronic databases Medline, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, and Google Scholar were searched for published literature that investigated human health impacts of dairy production and consumption. Occupational hazards, environmental health impacts, ecosystem health impacts, foodborne hazards, and diet‐related chronic diseases were identified as potential public health hazards. Some impacts, notably climate change, extend beyond directly exposed populations. Dairy production and consumption are also associated with important health benefits through the provision of nutrients and economic opportunities. As the global dairy sector increases production, exposure to a range of hazards must be weighed with these benefits. The review of impacts presented here can provide an input into decision making about optimal levels of dairy production and consumption, local land use, and identification and management of specific hazards from this sector. Future research should consider multiple exposure routes, socioeconomic implications, and environmental factors, particularly in regions heavily dependent on dairy farming.

Abstract Background Campylobacter is the leading cause of bacterial gastroenteritis worldwide, and contaminated chicken is a significant vehicle for spread of the disease. This study aimed to assess consumers’ knowledge of safe chicken handling practices and whether their expectations for food safety labelling of chicken are met, as a strategy to prevent campylobacteriosis. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 401 shoppers at supermarkets and butcheries in Wellington, New Zealand, and a systematic assessment of content and display features of chicken labels. Results While 89% of participants bought, prepared or cooked chicken, only 15% knew that most (60–90%) fresh chicken in New Zealand is contaminated by Campylobacter. Safety and correct preparation information on chicken labels, was rated ‘very necessary’ or ‘essential’ by the majority of respondents. Supermarket chicken labels scored poorly for the quality of their food safety information with an average of 1.7/5 (95% CI, 1.4–2.1) for content and 1.8/5 (95% CI, 1.6–2.0) for display. Conclusions Most consumers are unaware of the level of Campylobacter contamination on fresh chicken and there is a significant but unmet consumer demand for information on safe chicken preparation on labels. Labels on fresh chicken products are a potentially valuable but underused tool for campylobacteriosis prevention in New Zealand.

Abstract Objective: Modelling the relationship between weather, climate and infectious diseases can help identify high‐risk periods and provide understanding of the determinants of longer‐term trends. We provide a detailed examination of the non‐linear and delayed association between temperature and salmonellosis in three New Zealand cities (Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch). Methods: Salmonella notifications were geocoded to the city of residence for the reported case. City‐specific associations between weekly maximum temperature and the onset date for reported salmonella infections (1997–2007) were modelled using non‐linear distributed lag models, while controlling for season and long‐term trends. Results: Relatively high temperatures were positively associated with infection risk in Auckland (n=3,073) and Christchurch (n=880), although the former showed evidence of a more immediate relationship with exposure to high temperatures. There was no significant association between temperature and salmonellosis risk in Wellington. Conclusions: Projected increases in temperature with climate change may have localised health impacts, suggesting that preventative measures will need to be region‐specific. This evidence contributes to the increasing concern over the public health impacts of climate change.

AbstractThe forecast consequences of climate change on human health are profound, especially in low- and middle-income countries and among the most disadvantaged populations. Innovative policy tools are needed to address the adverse health effects of climate change. Cash transfers are established policy tools for protecting population health before, during and after climate-related disasters. For example, the Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Programme provides cash transfers to reduce food insecurity resulting from droughts. We propose extending cash transfer interventions to more proactive measures to improve health in the context of climate change. We identify promising cash transfer schemes that could be used to prevent the adverse health consequences of climatic hazards. Cash transfers for using emission-free, active modes of transport - e.g. cash for cycling to work - could prevent future adverse health consequences by contributing to climate change mitigation and, at the same time, improving current population health. Another example is cash transfers provided to communities that decide to move to areas in which their lives and health are not threatened by climatic disasters. More research on such interventions is needed to ensure that they are effective, ethical, equitable and cost-effective.

Abstract Objective: To review the available evidence that examines the association between climatic and agricultural land use factors and the risks of enteric zoonoses in humans and consider information needs and possible pathways of intervention. Methods: The electronic databases PubMed, Web of Science and Embase and government websites were searched systematically for published literature that investigated the association of climatic and/or agricultural exposures with the incidence of the four most common enteric zoonotic diseases in New Zealand (campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis). Results The 16 studies in the review demonstrated significant associations between climate, agricultural land use and enteric disease occurrence. The evidence suggests that enteric disease risk from environmental reservoirs is pathogen specific. In some rural regions, environmental pathogen load is considerable, with multiple opportunities for zoonotic transmission. Conclusions: Enteric disease occurrence in NZ is associated with climate variability and agricultural land use. However, these relationships interact with demographic factors to influence disease patterns. Implications: Improved understanding of how environmental and social factors interact can inform effective public health interventions under scenarios of projected environmental change.

Mosquito vectors are extending their range via international travel and trade. Climate change makes New Zealand an increasingly suitable environment for less tropically adapted exotic mosquito vectors to become established. This shift will add a multiplier effect to existing risks of both the establishment of new species and of resident exotic species extending into new areas. We describe trends in the border interceptions of exotic mosquitoes and evaluate the role of imported goods as a pathway for these introductions. Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, the two most commonly intercepted species, were only intercepted in Auckland. Used tyres and machinery were the main mode of entry for both species. The majority of Ae. albopictus were transported as larvae by sea, while most Ae. aegypti were transported as adults by air. Continuing introductions of these mosquitoes, mainly arriving via Japan or Australia, increase the risk of the local transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in New Zealand in general and in the Auckland region in particular. These findings reinforce the need for a high performing and adequately resourced national biosecurity system, particularly port surveillance and inspection. Recommended biosecurity improvements are described.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the individual-level association of income poverty with being underweight, using tobacco, drinking alcohol, having access only to unsafe water and sanitation, being exposed to indoor air pollution and being obese. METHODS: Using survey data for as many countries as possible, we estimated the relative risk association between income or assets and risk factors at the individual level within 11 medium- and low-income subregions of WHO. WHO and The World Bank data on the prevalence of risk factors and income poverty (defined as living on < US$ 1.00 per day, US$ 1-2.00 per day and > US$ 2.00 per day) were analysed to impute the association between poverty and risk factors for each subregion. The possible effect of poverty reduction on the prevalence of risk factors was estimated using population-attributable risk percentages. FINDINGS: There were strong associations between poverty and malnutrition among children, having access only to unsafe water and sanitation, and being exposed to indoor air pollution within each subregion (relative risks were twofold to threefold greater for those living on < US$ 1.00 per day compared with those living on > US$ 2.00 per day). Associations between poverty and obesity, tobacco use and alcohol use varied across subregions. If everyone living on < US$ 2.00 per day had the risk factor profile of those living on > US$ 2.00 per day, 51% of exposures to unimproved water and sanitation could be avoided as could 37% of malnutrition among children and 38% of exposure to indoor air pollution. The more realistic, but still challenging, Millennium Development Goal of halving the number of people living on < US$ 1.00 per day would achieve much smaller reductions. CONCLUSION: To achieve large gains in global health requires both poverty eradication and public health action. The methods used in this study may be useful for monitoring pro-equity progress towards Millennium Development Goals.

The biological and physical environment of the planet is changing at an unprecedented rate as a result of human activity, and these changes may have an enormous impact on human health. One of the goals of human development is to protect health in the face of rapid environmental change, but we often fail to do this. The aim in this paper is to distinguish between socioeconomic aspects of development that are likely to be protective and those that are likely to increase vulnerability (the capacity for loss resulting from environmental change). Examples include climate change in the Pacific. We conclude that protecting human health in a changing world requires us to take steps to minimize harmful change wherever possible, and at the same time to be prepared for surprises. The goals of mitigation (reducing or preventing change) and adaptation (response to change) are not mutually exclusive. In fact, steps to make populations more resilient in the face of change are often similar to those that are needed to lighten the load on the environment. We need social policies that convert economic growth into human development. Wider application of sustainable development concepts is part of the solution. In particular, there is a need to promote health as an essential asset of poor and vulnerable populations. It is their key to productivity and to surviving shocks; it is also the key to achieving broader development goals such as universal education. For these reasons it is in the interests of all sectors - economic, social and environmental - to play their particular roles in protecting and improving health.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating the influence of climate variability on enteric disease incidence may improve our ability to predict how climate change may affect these diseases. OBJECTIVES: To examine the associations between regional climate variability and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand. METHODS: Associations between monthly climate and enteric diseases (campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis) were investigated using Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models. RESULTS: No climatic factors were significantly associated with campylobacteriosis and giardiasis, with similar predictive power for univariate and multivariate models. Cryptosporidiosis was positively associated with average temperature of the previous month (β = 0.130, SE = 0.060, p

BACKGROUND: Although seasonality is a defining characteristic of many infectious diseases, few studies have described and compared seasonal patterns across diseases globally, impeding our understanding of putative mechanisms. Here, we review seasonal patterns across five enteric zoonotic diseases: campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, vero-cytotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC), cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in the context of two primary drivers of seasonality: (i) environmental effects on pathogen occurrence and pathogen-host associations and (ii) population characteristics/behaviour. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We systematically reviewed published literature from 1960-2010, resulting in the review of 86 studies across the five diseases. The Gini coefficient compared temporal variations in incidence across diseases and the monthly seasonality index characterised timing of seasonal peaks. Consistent seasonal patterns across transnational boundaries, albeit with regional variations was observed. The bacterial diseases all had a distinct summer peak, with identical Gini values for campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis (0.22) and a higher index for VTEC (Gini 0.36). Cryptosporidiosis displayed a bi-modal peak with spring and summer highs and the most marked temporal variation (Gini = 0.39). Giardiasis showed a relatively small summer increase and was the least variable (Gini = 0.18). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Seasonal variation in enteric zoonotic diseases is ubiquitous, with regional variations highlighting complex environment-pathogen-host interactions. Results suggest that proximal environmental influences and host population dynamics, together with distal, longer-term climatic variability could have important direct and indirect consequences for future enteric disease risk. Additional understanding of the concerted influence of these factors on disease patterns may improve assessment and prediction of enteric disease burden in temperate, developed countries.

BackgroundSeveral factors, including environmental and climatic factors, influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Nevertheless, the identification and relative importance of climatic factors for vector-borne diseases remain controversial. Dengue is the world's most important viral vector-borne disease, and the controversy about climatic effects also applies in this case. Here we address the role of climate variability in shaping the interannual pattern of dengue epidemics.Methods and findingsWe have analysed monthly data for Thailand from 1983 to 1997 using wavelet approaches that can describe nonstationary phenomena and that also allow the quantification of nonstationary associations between time series. We report a strong association between monthly dengue incidence in Thailand and the dynamics of El Niño for the 2-3-y periodic mode. This association is nonstationary, seen only from 1986 to 1992, and appears to have a major influence on the synchrony of dengue epidemics in Thailand.ConclusionThe underlying mechanism for the synchronisation of dengue epidemics may resemble that of a pacemaker, in which intrinsic disease dynamics interact with climate variations driven by El Niño to propagate travelling waves of infection. When association with El Niño is strong in the 2-3-y periodic mode, one observes high synchrony of dengue epidemics over Thailand. When this association is absent, the seasonal dynamics become dominant and the synchrony initiated in Bangkok collapses.