1. Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores
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Bjarni J. Vilhjálmsson, Jian Yang, Hilary K. Finucane, Alexander Gusev, Sara Lindström, Stephan Ripke, Giulio Genovese, Po-Ru Loh, Gaurav Bhatia, Ron Do, Tristan Hayeck, Hong-Hee Won, Sekar Kathiresan, Michele Pato, Carlos Pato, Rulla Tamimi, Eli Stahl, Noah Zaitlen, Bogdan Pasaniuc, Gillian Belbin, Eimear E. Kenny, Mikkel H. Schierup, Philip De Jager, Nikolaos A. Patsopoulos, Steve McCarroll, Mark Daly, Shaun Purcell, Daniel Chasman, Benjamin Neale, Michael Goddard, Peter M. Visscher, Peter Kraft, Nick Patterson, Alkes L. Price, Benjamin M. Neale, Aiden Corvin, James T.R. Walters, Kai-How Farh, Peter A. Holmans, Phil Lee, Brendan Bulik-Sullivan, David A. Collier, Hailiang Huang, Tune H. Pers, Ingrid Agartz, Esben Agerbo, Margot Albus, Madeline Alexander, Farooq Amin, Silviu A. Bacanu, Martin Begemann, Richard A. Belliveau, Judit Bene, Sarah E. Bergen, Elizabeth Bevilacqua, Tim B. Bigdeli, Donald W. Black, Richard Bruggeman, Nancy G. Buccola, Randy L. Buckner, William Byerley, Wiepke Cahn, Guiqing Cai, Dominique Campion, Rita M. Cantor, Vaughan J. Carr, Noa Carrera, Stanley V. Catts, Kimberly D. Chambert, Raymond C.K. Chan, Ronald Y.L. Chen, Eric Y.H. Chen, Wei Cheng, Eric F.C. Cheung, Siow Ann Chong, C. Robert Cloninger, David Cohen, Nadine Cohen, Paul Cormican, Nick Craddock, James J. Crowley, David Curtis, Michael Davidson, Kenneth L. Davis, Franziska Degenhardt, Jurgen Del Favero, Lynn E. DeLisi, Ditte Demontis, Dimitris Dikeos, Timothy Dinan, Srdjan Djurovic, Gary Donohoe, Elodie Drapeau, Jubao Duan, Frank Dudbridge, Naser Durmishi, Peter Eichhammer, Johan Eriksson, Valentina Escott-Price, Laurent Essioux, Ayman H. Fanous, Martilias S. Farrell, Josef Frank, Lude Franke, Robert Freedman, Nelson B. Freimer, Marion Friedl, Joseph I. Friedman, Menachem Fromer, Lyudmila Georgieva, Elliot S. Gershon, Ina Giegling, Paola Giusti-Rodrguez, Stephanie Godard, Jacqueline I. Goldstein, Vera Golimbet, Srihari Gopal, Jacob Gratten, Jakob Grove, Lieuwe de Haan, Christian Hammer, Marian L. Hamshere, Mark Hansen, Thomas Hansen, Vahram Haroutunian, Annette M. Hartmann, Frans A. Henskens, Stefan Herms, Joel N. Hirschhorn, Per Hoffmann, Andrea Hofman, Mads V. Hollegaard, David M. Hougaard, Masashi Ikeda, Inge Joa, Antonio Julia, Rene S. Kahn, Luba Kalaydjieva, Sena Karachanak-Yankova, Juha Karjalainen, David Kavanagh, Matthew C. Keller, Brian J. Kelly, James L. Kennedy, Andrey Khrunin, Yunjung Kim, Janis Klovins, James A. Knowles, Bettina Konte, Vaidutis Kucinskas, Zita Ausrele Kucinskiene, Hana Kuzelova-Ptackova, Anna K. Kahler, Claudine Laurent, Jimmy Lee Chee Keong, S. Hong Lee, Sophie E. Legge, Bernard Lerer, Miaoxin Li, Tao Li, Kung-Yee Liang, Jeffrey Lieberman, Svetlana Limborska, Carmel M. Loughland, Jan Lubinski, Jouko Lnnqvist, Milan Macek, Patrik K.E. Magnusson, Brion S. Maher, Wolfgang Maier, Jacques Mallet, Sara Marsal, Manuel Mattheisen, Morten Mattingsdal, Robert W. McCarley, Colm McDonald, Andrew M. McIntosh, Sandra Meier, Carin J. Meijer, Bela Melegh, Ingrid Melle, Raquelle I. Mesholam-Gately, Andres Metspalu, Patricia T. Michie, Lili Milani, Vihra Milanova, Younes Mokrab, Derek W. Morris, Ole Mors, Preben B. Mortensen, Kieran C. Murphy, Robin M. Murray, Inez Myin-Germeys, Bertram Mller-Myhsok, Mari Nelis, Igor Nenadic, Deborah A. Nertney, Gerald Nestadt, Kristin K. Nicodemus, Liene Nikitina-Zake, Laura Nisenbaum, Annelie Nordin, Eadbhard O’Callaghan, Colm O’Dushlaine, F. Anthony O’Neill, Sang-Yun Oh, Ann Olincy, Line Olsen, Jim Van Os, Christos Pantelis, George N. Papadimitriou, Sergi Papiol, Elena Parkhomenko, Michele T. Pato, Tiina Paunio, Milica Pejovic-Milovancevic, Diana O. Perkins, Olli Pietilinen, Jonathan Pimm, Andrew J. Pocklington, John Powell, Alkes Price, Ann E. Pulver, Shaun M. Purcell, Digby Quested, Henrik B. Rasmussen, Abraham Reichenberg, Mark A. Reimers, Alexander L. Richards, Joshua L. Roffman, Panos Roussos, Douglas M. Ruderfer, Veikko Salomaa, Alan R. Sanders, Ulrich Schall, Christian R. Schubert, Thomas G. Schulze, Sibylle G. Schwab, Edward M. Scolnick, Rodney J. Scott, Larry J. Seidman, Jianxin Shi, Engilbert Sigurdsson, Teimuraz Silagadze, Jeremy M. Silverman, Kang Sim, Petr Slominsky, Jordan W. Smoller, Hon-Cheong So, Chris C.A. Spencer, Eli A. Stahl, Hreinn Stefansson, Stacy Steinberg, Elisabeth Stogmann, Richard E. Straub, Eric Strengman, Jana Strohmaier, T. Scott Stroup, Mythily Subramaniam, Jaana Suvisaari, Dragan M. Svrakic, Jin P. Szatkiewicz, Erik Sderman, Srinivas Thirumalai, Draga Toncheva, Paul A. Tooney, Sarah Tosato, Juha Veijola, John Waddington, Dermot Walsh, Dai Wang, Qiang Wang, Bradley T. Webb, Mark Weiser, Dieter B. Wildenauer, Nigel M. Williams, Stephanie Williams, Stephanie H. Witt, Aaron R. Wolen, Emily H.M. Wong, Brandon K. Wormley, Jing Qin Wu, Hualin Simon Xi, Clement C. Zai, Xuebin Zheng, Fritz Zimprich, Naomi R. Wray, Kari Stefansson, Rolf Adolfsson, Ole A. Andreassen, Douglas H.R. Blackwood, Elvira Bramon, Joseph D. Buxbaum, Anders D. Børglum, Sven Cichon, Ariel Darvasi, Enrico Domenici, Hannelore Ehrenreich, Tonu Esko, Pablo V. Gejman, Michael Gill, Hugh Gurling, Christina M. Hultman, Nakao Iwata, Assen V. Jablensky, Erik G. Jonsson, Kenneth S. Kendler, George Kirov, Jo Knight, Todd Lencz, Douglas F. Levinson, Qingqin S. Li, Jianjun Liu, Anil K. Malhotra, Steven A. McCarroll, Andrew McQuillin, Jennifer L. Moran, Bryan J. Mowry, Markus M. Nthen, Roel A. Ophoff, Michael J. Owen, Aarno Palotie, Carlos N. Pato, Tracey L. Petryshen, Danielle Posthuma, Marcella Rietschel, Brien P. Riley, Dan Rujescu, Pak C. Sham, Pamela Sklar, David St. Clair, Daniel R. Weinberger, Jens R. Wendland, Thomas Werge, Mark J. Daly, Patrick F. Sullivan, Michael C. O’Donovan, David J. Hunter, Muriel Adank, Habibul Ahsan, Kristiina Aittomäki, Laura Baglietto, Sonja Berndt, Carl Blomquist, Federico Canzian, Jenny Chang-Claude, Stephen J. Chanock, Laura Crisponi, Kamila Czene, Norbert Dahmen, Isabel dos Santos Silva, Douglas Easton, A. Heather Eliassen, Jonine Figueroa, Olivia Fletcher, Montserrat Garcia-Closas, Mia M. Gaudet, Lorna Gibson, Christopher A. Haiman, Per Hall, Aditi Hazra, Rebecca Hein, Brian E. Henderson, Albert Hofman, John L. Hopper, Astrid Irwanto, Mattias Johansson, Rudolf Kaaks, Muhammad G. Kibriya, Peter Lichtner, Eiliv Lund, Enes Makalic, Alfons Meindl, Hanne Meijers-Heijboer, Bertram Müller-Myhsok, Taru A. Muranen, Heli Nevanlinna, Petra H. Peeters, Julian Peto, Ross L. Prentice, Nazneen Rahman, María José Sánchez, Daniel F. Schmidt, Rita K. Schmutzler, Melissa C. Southey, Ruth Travis, Clare Turnbull, Andre G. Uitterlinden, Rob B. van der Luijt, Quinten Waisfisz, Zhaoming Wang, Alice S. Whittemore, Rose Yang, Wei Zheng, ANS - Amsterdam Neuroscience, Adult Psychiatry, Other departments, CCA -Cancer Center Amsterdam, ARD - Amsterdam Reproduction and Development, Human Genetics, Grove, Jakob, Complex Trait Genetics, Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam - Neurobiology of Mental Health, Vilhjalmsson, Bjarni J, Yang, Jian, Finucane, Hilary K, Gusev, Alexander, Lee, SH, Price, Alkes L, Schizophrenia Working Group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, Discovery, Biology, and Risk of Inherited Variants in Breast Cancer (DRIVE) study, Schizophrenia Working Group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, Discovery, Biology, and Risk of Inherited Variants in Breast Cancer (DRIVE) Study, Psychosis Endophenotype International Consortium, Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium, Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Research Group Netherlands (HEBON), Human genetics, NCA - Brain mechanisms in health and disease, CCA - Oncogenesis, CCA - Quality of life, CCA - Cancer biology and immunology, Psychiatry, Department of Technology and Operations Management, Department of Organisation and Personnel Management, Child and Adolescent Psychiatry / Psychology, Clinical Genetics, Cell biology, and Internal Medicine
- Subjects
Multifactorial Inheritance ,Linkage disequilibrium ,Complex disease ,heritability ,Bioinformatics ,Medical and Health Sciences ,Linkage Disequilibrium ,0302 clinical medicine ,Theoretical ,External reference ,Models ,Statistics ,GWAS ,Genetics(clinical) ,Genetics (clinical) ,Mathematics ,Genetics & Heredity ,Schizophrenia Working Group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium ,0303 health sciences ,Single Nucleotide ,Biological Sciences ,Serious Mental Illness ,Prognosis ,Thresholding ,Regression ,Mental Health ,Phenotype ,polygenic risk scores ,Mixed model ,Multiple Sclerosis ,Genotype ,Quantitative Trait Loci ,polygenic risk score, schizophrenia, GWAS ,Discovery ,Quantitative trait locus ,Biology ,Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ,Article ,03 medical and health sciences ,SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being ,Genetics ,Humans ,p-value ,Pruning (decision trees) ,Polymorphism ,Genome-Wide Association Study ,Schizophrenia ,Models, Theoretical ,030304 developmental biology ,genome-wide association study ,and Risk of Inherited Variants in Breast Cancer (DRIVE) study ,Brain Disorders ,Data set ,schizophrenia ,Sample size determination ,polygenic risk score ,Polygenic risk score ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery ,linkage disequilibrium - Abstract
Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and can reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce LDpred, a method that infers the posterior mean effect size of each marker by using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the approach of pruning followed by thresholding, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, predicted R-2 increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia dataset and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis dataset. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease datasets and for non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase. Refereed/Peer-reviewed
- Published
- 2015