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Objective Static endoscopic evaluation of swallowing (SEES) is an instrumental evaluation developed for in‐office identification of patients who may benefit from a modified barium swallow study (MBSS). We aim to determine the predictive value of SEES for evaluating dysphagia. Methods A retrospective case series was performed on adults evaluated for dysphagia using SEES followed by MBSS at a single tertiary care center. Studies were evaluated by two blinded expert raters. Results Fifty‐eight patients were included. Thin liquid penetration on SEES had a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.86 (95% CI 0.70‐0.95), 0.63 (95% CI 0.24‐0.91), 0.91 (95% CI 0.76‐0.98), and 0.5 (0.19‐0.81), respectively, for predicting thin liquid penetration on MBSS, and 1.0 (95% CI 0.59‐1.0), 0.29 (95% CI 0.15‐0.47), 0.23 (95% CI 0.10‐0.41), and 1.0 (95% CI 0.69‐1.0) for predicting thin liquid aspiration on MBSS. Thin liquid aspiration on SEES had a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 0.67 (95% CI 0.09‐0.99), 0.85 (95% CI 0.66‐0.96), 0.33 (95% CI 0.04‐0.78), and 0.96 (95% CI 0.79‐1.0), respectively, for predicting thin liquid aspiration on MBSS. Conclusions SEES may be used as an objective in‐office test to screen for aspiration and penetration. Thin liquid penetration on SEES is moderately sensitive for predicting penetration on MBSS. Absence of thin liquid penetration or aspiration on SEES has a high NPV for excluding aspiration on MBSS. Abnormalities on SEES or the need to view the entire swallowing mechanism should prompt an MBSS for a more complete evaluation of dysphagia. Level of Evidence: 4, Static endoscopic evaluation of swallowing (SEES) is an instrumental evaluation developed for in‐office identification of patients who may benefit from a modified barium swallow study (MBSS). SEES may be used as an objective in‐office test to screen for aspiration and penetration. Absence of thin liquid penetration or aspiration on SEES has a high NPV for excluding aspiration on MBSS.

Satellite-based earth observation sensors are increasingly able to monitor geophysical signals related to natural hazards, and many groups are working on rapid data acquisition, processing, and dissemination to data users with a wide range of expertise and goals. A particular challenge in the meaningful dissemination of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data to non-expert users is its unique differential data structure and sometimes low signal to noise ratio. In this study, we evaluate the online dissemination of ground deformation measurements from InSAR through Twitter, alongside the provision of open access InSAR data from the Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics (COMET) Looking Into Continents from Space with Synthetic Aperture Radar (LiCSAR) processing system. Our aim is to evaluate (1) who interacts with disseminated InSAR data, (2) how the data are used and (3) to discuss strategies for meaningful communication and dissemination of open InSAR data. We found that InSAR Twitter activity was primarily associated with natural hazard response, specifically following earthquakes and volcanic activity, where InSAR measurements of ground deformation were disseminated, often using wrapped and unwrapped interferograms. For earthquake events, Sentinel-1 data were acquired, processed, and tweeted within 4.7±2.8 days (shortest was one day). Open access Sentinel-1 data dominated the InSAR tweets and were applied to volcanic and earthquake events in the most engaged with (retweeted) content. Open access InSAR data provided by LiCSAR was widely accessed, including automatically processed and tweeted interferograms and interactive event pages revealing ground deformation following earthquake events. The further work required to integrate dissemination of InSAR data into longer-term disaster risk reduction strategies is highly specific, both to hazard-type, international community of practice, and local political setting and civil protection mandates. Notably, communication of uncertainties and processing methodologies are still lacking. We conclude by outlining the future direction of COMET LiCSAR products to maximise their useability.

Volcanoes have dormancy periods that may last decades to centuries meaning that eruptions at volcanoes with no historical records of eruptions are common. Baseline monitoring to detect the early stages of reawakening is therefore important even in regions with little recent volcanic activity. Satellite techniques, such as InSAR, are ideally suited for routinely surveying large and inaccessible regions, but the large datasets typically require expert interpretation. Here we focus on Turkey where there are 10 Holocene volcanic systems, but no eruptions since 1855 and consequently little ground-based monitoring. We analyse data from the first five years of the European Space Agency Sentinel-1 mission which collects data over Turkey every 6 days on both ascending and descending passes. The high relief edifices of Turkey’s volcanoes cause two challenges: 1) snow cover during the winter months causes a loss of coherence and 2) topographically-correlated atmospheric artefacts could be misinterpreted as deformation. We propose mitigation strategies for both. The raw time series at Hasan Dag volcano shows uplift of ~ 10 cm between September 2017 and July 2018, but atmospheric corrections based on global weather models demonstrate that this is an artefact and reduce the scatter in the data to

The red fox (Vulpes vulpes) has a wide global distribution with many ecotypes, and has been bred in captivity for various traits, making it a useful evolutionary model system. The Y chromosome represents one of the most informative markers of phylogeography, yet it has not been well-studied in the red fox due to a lack of the necessary genomic resources. We used a target capture approach to sequence a portion of the red fox Y chromosome in a geographically diverse red fox sample, along with other canid species, to develop single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, 13 of which we validated for use in subsequent studies. Phylogenetic analyses of the Y chromosome sequences, including calibration to outgroups, confirmed previous estimates of the timing of two intercontinental exchanges of red foxes, the initial colonization of North America from Eurasia approximately half a million years ago and a subsequent continental exchange before the last Pleistocene glaciation (∼100,000 years ago). However, in contrast to mtDNA, which showed unidirectional transfer from Eurasia to North America prior to the last glaciation, the Y chromosome appears to have been transferred from North America to Eurasia during this period. Additional sampling is needed to confirm this pattern and to further clarify red fox Y chromosome phylogeography.

It is increasingly common for apex predators to face a multitude of complex conservation issues. In Australia, dingoes are the mainland apex predator and play an important role in ecological functioning. Currently, however, they are threatened by hybridization with modern domestic dogs in the wild. As a consequence, we explore how increasing our understanding of the evolutionary history of dingoes can inform management and conservation decisions. Previous research on whole mitochondrial genome and nuclear data from five geographical populations showed evidence of two distinct lineages of dingo. Here, we present data from a broader survey of dingoes around Australia using both mitochondrial and Y chromosome markers and investigate the timing of demographic expansions. Biogeographic data corroborate the presence of at least two geographically subdivided genetic populations, southeastern and northwestern. Demographic modeling suggests that dingoes have undergone population expansion in the last 5,000 years. It is not clear whether this stems from expansion into vacant niches after the extinction of thylacines on the mainland or indicates the arrival date of dingoes. Male dispersal is much more common than female, evidenced by more diffuse Y haplogroup distributions. There is also evidence of likely historical male biased introgression from domestic dogs into dingoes, predominately within southeastern Australia. These findings have critical practical implications for the management and conservation of dingoes in Australia; particularly a focus must be placed upon the threatened southeastern dingo population.

Highlights • Global magnitude–frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions • Conservative treatment of rounding and under-recording • Return period for super-eruptions (1000 Gt) estimated as 17ka (95% CI: 5.2ka, 48ka) • Much shorter than the previous estimate, wider implications for risk management For volcanoes, as for other natural hazards, the frequency of large events diminishes with their magnitude, as captured by the magnitude–frequency relationship. Assessing this relationship is valuable both for the insights it provides about volcanism, and for the practical challenge of risk management. We derive a global magnitude–frequency relationship for explosive volcanic eruptions of at least of erupted mass (or M4.5). Our approach is essentially empirical, based on the eruptions recorded in the LaMEVE database. It differs from previous approaches mainly in our conservative treatment of magnitude-rounding and under-recording. Our estimate for the return period of ‘super-eruptions’ (, or M8) is (95% CI: , ), which is substantially shorter than previous estimates, indicating that volcanoes pose a larger risk to human civilisation than previously thought.

Dogs in The Bahamas have been documented since the time of Columbus, so dogs have been residents of the country for at least as long as our written records. While the term “potcake” has been associated with mongrel dogs in The Bahamas for some time, written references have been traced back only as far as 1970. Since then, the written word potcake has become relatively common. Potcakes, while reviled by some, are considered as quintessentially Bahamian by others. This paper attempts to determine if the potcake is unique to The Bahamas. Our analysis of potcake DNA from New Providence and Grand Bahama suggests that the importation of dogs has diluted the pool of any ancient potcake DNA to an extent that the Bahamian potcake, if it ever existed, is now either extinct or highly admixed. Some implications for demystifying this Bahamian icon based upon the current welfare offered potcakes are proposed. The Dogology of Nassau is a science worthy of profound study and investigation by all those dogmatically inclined (Wilson, 1864, pp. 28-29).

Tephra layers in marine sediment cores from scientific ocean drilling largely record high‐magnitude silicic explosive eruptions in the Japan arc for up to the last 20 million years. Analysis of the thickness variation with distance of 180 tephra layers from a global data set suggests that the majority of the visible tephra layers used in this study are the products of caldera‐forming eruptions with magnitude (M) > 6, considering their distances at the respective drilling sites to their likely volcanic sources. Frequency of visible tephra layers in cores indicates a marked increase in rates of large magnitude explosive eruptions at ∼8 Ma, 6–4 Ma, and further increase after ∼2 Ma. These changes are attributed to major changes in tectonic plate interactions. Lower rates of large magnitude explosive volcanism in the Miocene are related to a strike‐slip‐dominated boundary (and temporary cessation or deceleration of subduction) between the Philippine Sea Plate and southwest Japan, combined with the possibility that much of the arc in northern Japan was submerged beneath sea level partly due to previous tectonic extension of northern Honshu related to formation of the Sea of Japan. Changes in plate motions and subduction dynamics during the ∼8 Ma to present period led to (1) increased arc‐normal subduction in southwest Japan (and resumption of arc volcanism) and (2) shift from extension to compression of the upper plate in northeast Japan, leading to uplift, crustal thickening and favorable conditions for accumulation of the large volumes of silicic magma needed for explosive caldera‐forming eruptions., Key Points Increase in volcanic activity in Japan at ∼8, 4–6, and ∼2 MaTephra layers in distal sediment cores represent magnitude 6 or greater eruptionsTectonic changes driving rates of explosive volcanism in Japan

Background Globally, more than 800 million people live in areas that have the potential to be affected by volcanic hazards, and this number is growing [Chapter 4]. The need for informed judgements regarding the global extent of potential volcanic hazards and the relative threats is therefore more pressing than ever. There is also an imperative to identify areas of relatively high hazard where studies and risk reduction measures may be best focussed. Various authors have tackled this task at a range of spatial scales, using a variety of techniques. At some well-studied volcanoes, the geological record has been used in combination with numerical modelling to create probabilistic hazard maps of volcanic flows and tephra fall [Chapter 6 and 20]. Such sources of information can be hugely beneficial in land use planning during times of quiescence and in emergency planning during times of unrest. Unfortunately, creating high-resolution probabilistic hazard maps for all volcanoes is not yet feasible. There is therefore a need for a methodology for volcanic hazard assessment that can be applied universally and consistently, which is less data-and computing-intensive. The aim of such an approach is to identify, on some objective overall basis, those volcanoes that pose the greatest danger, in order that more indepth investigations and disaster risk reduction efforts can then be focused on them. Previous methods An index-based approach to volcanic hazard assessment involves assigning scores to a series of indicators, which are then combined to give an overall hazard score. Indicators typically include measures of the frequency of eruptions, the relative occurrence of different kinds of eruptions and their related hazards, the footprints of these hazards, and eruption size. Indices are well suited to the problem of volcanic hazard assessment, as they allow the decomposition of the complex system into a suite of volcanic system controls and simple quantitative variables and factors that jointly characterise threat potential. Ewert (2007) presented an index-based methodology for assessing volcanic threat (the combination of hazard and exposure) in the USA, to permit prioritisation of research, monitoring and mitigation.

The Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE) database contains data on 1,883 Quaternary eruption records of magnitude (M) 4 and above and is publically accessible online via the British Geological Survey. Spatial and temporal analysis of the data indicates that the record is incomplete and is thus biased. The recorded distribution of volcanoes is variable on a global scale, with three-quarters of all volcanoes with M≥4 Quaternary activity located in the northern hemisphere and a quarter within Japan alone. The distribution of recorded eruptions does not strictly follow the spatial distribution of volcanoes and has distinct intra-regional variability, with about 40% of all recorded eruptions having occurred in Japan, reflecting in part the country’s efforts devoted to comprehensive volcanic studies. The number of eruptions in LaMEVE decreases with increasing age, exemplified by the recording of 50% of all known Quaternary eruptions during the last 20,000 years. Historical dating is prevalent from 1450 AD to the present day, substantially improving record completeness. The completeness of the record also improves as magnitude increases. This is demonstrated by the calculation of the median time, T50, for eruptions within given magnitude intervals, where 50% of eruptions are older than T50: T50 ranges from 5,070 years for M4-4.9 eruptions to 935,000 years for M≥8 eruptions. T50 follows a power law fit, suggesting a quantifiable relationship between eruption size and preservation potential of eruptive products. Several geographic regions have T50 ages of

To facilitate the assessment of hazards and risk from volcanoes, we have created a comprehensive global database of Quaternary Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE). This forms part of the larger Volcanic Global Risk Identification and Analysis Project (VOGRIPA), and also forms part of the Global Volcano Model (GVM) initiative (http://www.globalvolcanomodel.org). A flexible search tool allows users to select data on a global, regional or local scale; the selected data can be downloaded into a spreadsheet. The database is publically available online at http://www.bgs.ac.uk/vogripa and currently contains information on nearly 3,000 volcanoes and over 1,800 Quaternary eruption records. Not all volcanoes currently have eruptions associated with them but have been included to allow for easy expansion of the database as more data are found. Data fields include: magnitude, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), deposit volumes, eruption dates, and rock type. The scientific community is invited to contribute new data and also alert the database manager to potentially incorrect data. Whilst the database currently focuses only on large magnitude eruptions, it will be expanded to include data specifically relating to the principal volcanic hazards (e.g. pyroclastic flows, tephra fall, lahars, debris avalanches, ballistics), as well as vulnerability (e.g. population figures, building type) to facilitate risk assessments of future eruptions.

5 pages; International audience; This article documents the addition of 411 microsatellite marker loci and 15 pairs of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) sequencing primers to the Molecular Ecology Resources Database. Loci were developed for the following species: Acanthopagrus schlegeli, Anopheles lesteri, Aspergillus clavatus, Aspergillus flavus, Aspergillus fumigatus, Aspergillus oryzae, Aspergillus terreus, Branchiostoma japonicum, Branchiostoma belcheri, Colias behrii, Coryphopterus personatus, Cynogolssus semilaevis, Cynoglossus semilaevis, Dendrobium officinale, Dendrobium officinale, Dysoxylum malabaricum, Metrioptera roeselii, Myrmeciza exsul, Ochotona thibetana, Neosartorya fischeri, Nothofagus pumilio, Onychodactylus fischeri, Phoenicopterus roseus, Salvia officinalis L., Scylla paramamosain, Silene latifo, Sula sula, and Vulpes vulpes. These loci were cross-tested on the following species: Aspergillus giganteus, Colias pelidne, Colias interior, Colias meadii, Colias eurytheme, Coryphopterus lipernes, Coryphopterus glaucofrenum, Coryphopterus eidolon, Gnatholepis thompsoni, Elacatinus evelynae, Dendrobium loddigesii Dendrobium devonianum, Dysoxylum binectariferum, Nothofagus antarctica, Nothofagus dombeyii, Nothofagus nervosa, Nothofagus obliqua, Sula nebouxii, and Sula variegata. This article also documents the addition of 39 sequencing primer pairs and 15 allele specific primers or probes for Paralithodes camtschaticus.