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Policies are becoming intensively interrelated while increasing numbers of societal groups and stakeholders are affected. At the same time, current and future challenges require improved capacity in terms of models, their linkages or redesigns to deliver forward-looking insights on policies. Different stakeholder workshops have recently been carried out in the context of two scenario studies to support these activities, including stocktaking, inputs for narratives, validation of the outcomes, acceptance of analysis and drafting future research agendas. This paper describes the approaches applied in both projects, shortly presents their results and findings to finally draw some general conclusions., International Journal on Food System Dynamics, Vol 13, No 2 (2022)

In the field of agri-food, impact assessments to support policy decision-making are often based on simulations delivered by models. The increasing complexity of policies affecting the agri-food sector requires improving the capacities of current models, connecting or redesigning them to deliver forward-looking insights on policy objectives. The EU-Project ‘Support for Policy Relevant Modelling of Agriculture' (SUPREMA) has identified upcoming needs in the research and policy agenda, while exploring the feasibility of those potential modelling exercises by testing the existing tools. The assessment has pointed out necessities for model extensions and development of new tools. Besides, it has revealed the potential of model integration and collaboration to supplement the outcomes of individual models. This is supported in view of the food system approach that is becoming the fundamental framework for analysing the dynamics of the agri-food sector when considering it from a broad perspective. This paper describes shortly how the assessment was conducted and presents the outcomes and lessons learnt from the project. It pays special attention to the challenges and the policy priorities that are expected to become important issues in the policy agenda in the coming years.

This paper investigates the effects of three different simulated post-COVID-19 recovery GDP growth rates during 2021-2023 (baseline, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios) for agricultural markets in four selected EU Member States (the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and Hungary) compared to a pre-COVID-19 projection. Empirical results are derived from the AGMEMOD model. A self-sufficiency ratio is utilised to summarise the net effects on consumption and supply in the agricultural markets. The country level analysis confirms that the agriculture sector in the EU has been quite resilient during the pandemic. The simulated impacts of the different GDP shocks on the agri-food sector are limited, which also conforms to reality, but changes in consumer behaviour could lead to longer lasting impacts on specific sectors.

Policy, administration and industry need medium-term projections of the expected developments in the agri-food markets for their decision-making processes. The EU Commission presents such projections for the EU as a whole in December of each year. Those projections and their assumptions regarding policy and macroeconomic developments are depicted to the level of individual EU Member States with the exception of Luxembourg, which is included in the figures of Belgium, by applying the partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD. The working paper briefly describes the approach to establish projections for the EU Member States. The projections cover the markets of main agricultural products, in particular for cereals and oilseeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed), livestock (cattle, pigs, goats and sheep), meat (beef, pork, and poultry), milk and dairy products (drinking milk, butter, cheese, skimmed milk powder, whole milk and semi-skimmed milk powder). The outcomes comprise items like areas, livestock numbers, yields, production, trade and use, as well as prices. The individual projection results are displayed in tables. Politik, Administration und Wirtschaft benötigen für ihre Entscheidungen mittelfristige Projektionen über die zu erwartenden Entwicklungen auf den Märkten der Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft. Die EU-Kommission legt solche Projektionen für die EU als Ganzes im Dezember jedes Jahres vor. Diese Projektionen und ihre Annahmen bezüglich politischer Maßnahmen und makroökonomischer Entwicklungen werden mit Hilfe des partiellen Modellsystems AGMEMOD auf die einzelnen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten mit der Ausnahme von Luxemburg, das mit Belgien regional zusammengefasst wird, herunter gebrochen. Das Working Paper beschreibt kurz den Ansatz, wie die Projektionen für die Mitgliedsstaaten erstellt werden. Die Projektionen umfassen die Märkte für wichtige Agrarprodukte, und zwar insbesondere für Getreide und Ölsaaten (Raps- und Sonnenblumensaat), für Vieh (Rinder, Schweine, Ziegen und Schafe), Fleisch (Rind-, Schweine- und Geflügelfleisch), Milch und Milchprodukte (Trinkmilch, Butter, Käse, Magermilchpulver, Vollmilch und teilentrahmtes Milchpulver) und decken Anbauflächen, Tierbestände, Produktion, Handel und Verwendung sowie Preise ab. Die einzelnen Projektionsergebnisse werden in tabellarischer Form aufbereitet dargestellt.

Policy, administration and industry need medium-term projections of the expected developments in the agri-food markets for their decision-making processes. The EU Commission presents such projections for the EU as a whole in December of each year. Those projections and their assumptions regarding policy and macroeconomic developments are depicted to the level of individual EU Member States with the exception of Luxembourg, which is included in the figures of Belgium, by applying the partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD. The working paper briefly describes the approach to establish projections for the EU Member States. The projections cover the markets of main agricultural products, in particular for cereals and oilseeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed), livestock (cattle, pigs, goats and sheep), meat (beef, pork, and poultry), milk and dairy products (drinking milk, butter, cheese, skimmed milk powder, whole milk and semi-skimmed milk powder). The outcomes comprise items like areas, livestock numbers, yields, production, trade and use, as well as prices. The individual projection results are displayed in tables., DOI:10.3220/WP1544622148000

Snacks and lunches offered at school can decisively influence children’s dietary habits. In order to counteract the current trends of increasing obesity in children, children’s preferences for foods with lower calorie content are becoming increasingly important. Based on the outcomes of an online survey with a choice experiment, we estimated the probability that young people benefit from different milk products as well as varying sugar and fat contents. The results suggest inter alia that young people who consider themselves to be overweight are more likely to choose products with reduced sugar and/or fat contents., International Journal on Food System Dynamics, Vol 9, No 2 (2018)

During the last years, current systems in agriculture and food production have been topic in public discussions. Especially modern animal husbandry seems not to match consumers’ or societal needs any longer. This paper concentrates on the society’s perspective regarding dairy farming in general and diverting perceptions and expectations with respect to dairy cattle either reared organically or reared conventionally. It aims to give orientation to farmers as well as policymakers about the societal point of view of dairy farming. Six focus groups were carried out in three German cities to capture the scope of opinions and expectations among the population. Three of those groups consisted of participants buying mainly organic food while the other three comprised citizens buying mainly conventional food. With respect to society’s perception of today’s dairy farming results showed that participants put emphasis on the following topics: the space for each cow was considered as insufficient and not species-appropriate, assumed application of medications as too high, and in particular the prophylactic use of antibiotics as problematic. Asked about perceived differences between organic versus conventional farming it became obvious that organic in contrast to the conventional farming was perceived as more species-appropriate. More or less, all previously criticized aspects seem to be regarded as irrelevant in organic farming. Some participants showed a very romantic view of organic dairy farming. The most critical point was an assumed high rate of rogue traders among organic farmers., Proceedings in Food System Dynamics, Proceedings in System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks 2015

Globally fish has become more important in the human nutrition, thus global consumption is expected to highly increase in the future years. Business-as-usual projections for fish market are limited by availability of reliable data that hinders the differentiation on fish category level on the supply and demand side and across EU member states. The Fishmodul in AGEMEMOD provides long term predictions for the fish market by fish categories at EU member state level. For this, a status-quo simulation to the year 2030 is developed in AGMEMOD. Additionally, opinions of market experts from private sector and research institutions through interviews and an elaborated questionnaire is integrated into the model to deal with the insufficient information. Thus, expertise knowledge provides better and accurate information of the sector for market projections. As results, baseline projections were adjusted, showing a slowly increase over the years, but higher production level by 2030., Proceedings in Food System Dynamics, Proceedings in System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks 2017

Globally fish has become more important in the human nutrition, thus global consumption is expected to highly increase in the future years. Business-as-usual projections for fish market are limited by availability of reliable data that hinders the differentiation on fish category level on the supply and demand side and across EU member states. The Fishmodul in AGEMEMOD provides long term predictions for the fish market by fish categories at EU member state level. For this, a status-quo simulation to the year 2030 is developed in AGMEMOD. Additionally, opinions of market experts from private sector and research institutions through interviews and an elaborated questionnaire is integrated into the model to deal with the insufficient information. Thus, expertise knowledge provides better and accurate information of the sector for market projections. As results, baseline projections were adjusted, showing a slowly increase over the years, but higher production level by 2030.

Snacks and lunches offered at school can decisively influence children’s dietary habits. In the light of discussions to establish prevention and intervention programs to abate current trends of rising childhood obesity, children’s preferences for food items with lower calorie content gain on importance. But youths preferences concerning different school milk products are not well-known. Therefore, the objective is to investigate if the milk products offered at school still meet older children’s preferences or if modifications could prove to be useful. Based on outcomes of an online survey covering a choice experiment and conducted among juveniles in Germany the probability that youths benefit from different products as well as varying prices, sugar and fat contents is estimated. Socio-demographics, psycho-metrics and perceived weight status are employed to explain youths choices preferring novel school milk products yet unavailable in German schools. Results of the choice experiment show that youths aged 15-18 are a heterogeneous group. They prefer a wider range of different products including drinking yoghurt as an option as well. Results indicate that nutritional aspects (low sugar/fat content, artificial sweetener) and body image are important for some of them., Proceedings in Food System Dynamics, 2016: Proceedings in System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks 2016

In Germany, different voluntary labelling schemes are in place to describe the origin of dairy products covering varying degrees of binding conditions, for example, brands with geographical information privately defined combined with relatively vague obligations, private label initiatives (e.g., Regionalfenster)1 In contrast to other products, like most meats, fruit and vegetables, provision of information on the country of origin or place of provenance is not mandatory for milk and milk as an ingredient. Regulation (EU) No 1169/2011 on the provision of food information to consumers identifies the need to explore the possibility to extend mandatory origin labelling for selected foodstuff categories, i.e. dairy. Thus the EU issued a study aiming to evaluate cost and benefits of introducing a mandatory country of origin labelling (MCOOL) for dairy products (EU Commission, 2015). The study intended to analyse a range of issues covering the need of consumers to be informed, the feasibility of providing mandatory indication of the country of origin or place of provenance, and, an analysis of the measures’ economic implications, including the aspects concerning the common market and likely impacts on international trade., Proceedings in Food System Dynamics, 2016: Proceedings in System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks 2016

Several economic models project global agricultural market developments. In each of these models, certain relevant aspects influencing agricultural markets are underrepresented. In order to overcome this, three economic models are linked to each other, namely GLOBIOM, AGMEMOD and MAGNET. The method to link these models consists of several parts: mapping, harmonization, data transfer, scenario development and successive model runs. The developed Model Junction Linkage Tool (MOJITO) facilitates and automates these parts. In addition to a common baseline scenario, two scenarios reflecting two important factors in the future development of wheat markets in Ukraine and Russia are analyzed. While the baseline results differ widely between the models the scenarios develop in a similar fashion.

Today’s agriculture and food production has been topic in public discussions and the media in the last years. Societal perceptions and imaginations of agriculture seem to be far away from reality. There is no indication of a declining gap between consumers’ expectations and their perception of animal husbandry. However, precise information about expectations and priorities of the population are unknown. Thus, the paper concentrates on society’s views and opinions. On the example of intensive pig production, the objective of the study is to analyse societal perceptions, expectations and main points of criticism. It also aims on the identification and characterisation of societal groups with almost identical attitudes. By combining exploratory focus groups with a quantitative survey, a mixed method approach is pursued. Focus groups are carried out in September 2012 in three German cities to capture a variety of opinions and concerns among the population. On the basis of findings from focus groups a quantitative survey is carried out in spring 2013 per online survey with approximately 1500 German citizens to quantify qualitative results. The surveys’ findings confirmed many of the critical views gained in the focus groups. On the basis of four extracted attitudinal factors three groups with heterogeneous opinions are differentiated with respect to modern pig production. Besides a very engaged group which is characterised by a strong criticism in general and a strong critical perception of current production systems, also a considerable group accepting modern animal husbandry was identified. The multinomial logit regression finally allows for a characterisation of the identified societal segments by sociodemographic and regional aspects. Additionally, the question of responsibility and the acceptance of consequences of several governmental actions are included in the model. It turns out that gender and agricultural knowledge of the people are significant determinants in explaining cluster membership. Interestingly, opponents more often have a good knowledge of agriculture. These findings imply that negative attitudes cannot be traced back to a missing knowledge.

In this report we summarize the contributions made by four groups to the subject of climate dependent yields. The first is by Waldemar Bojar, Leszek Knopik, Jacek Żarski, Cezary Sławiński, Piotr Baranowski and Wojciech Żarski on the subject of “the impact of extreme climate changes on the forecasted agriculture production”. It presents general characteristics of resources and outputs of agriculture in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie (K&P) and Lubelskie regions, based on statistical databases and the literature review. In this study, some statistically significant dependencies between the climatic parameters and yields of selected important crops in the abovementioned regions were worked out on the basis of empirical survey conducted in the University of Technology and Life Sciences and Institute of Agrophysics in Lublin. Efforts were taken to make integrated assessments of forecasted agricultural outputs influenced by climate extreme phenomena on the basis of the found dependencies’ yields – precipitation and the data coming from wide area model regional outputs such as prices, areas of farmland and yields. The second contribution is by Bojar W., Knopik L. and Żarski J. on the subject of “integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability to use in food supply forecasting”. It examines the proposals to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods without rain. This model is based on a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. The third contribution is by Iddo Kan on the Vegetative Agricultural Land Use Economic (VALUE) model. It discusses the sub-task with respect to crops of statistically estimating with statistical methods predictions of expected crop-yield contingent on climate, soil and production cost for use in existing trade models, or refined versions thereof, and how VALUE can contribute to this sub-task. The fourth contribution was made by Christoph Muller and Richard D. Robertson on the subject of “projecting future crop productivity for global economic modelling”. It supplies a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models.

The dairy sector is one of the most important agro-food markets in the European Union (EU). In addition to the fresh dairy products, cheese and butter considerable amounts of other dairy products with long sell-by dates are produced like skimmed milk, semi skimmed milk and whole milk powder. These products have some advantages in longer storage periods and easy transportation and thus they are often designated not only for domestic storage but also for international markets. As other internationally traded dairy products milk powders depict remarkable price variations in the last years which do find good matches in the domestic markets. Despite these variations the German industry regards milk powder as an interesting product for further investments driven by luminous international demand prospects. So the likely impacts between the international and the domestic prices movements are an important topic for the German dairy industry as well as German milk producers. In the past, the EU dairy market has been highly supported by the Common Market Organization (CMO) while, at the same time, milk supply has been restricted by the milk quota regime. High administrative price for dairy products were protected by significant import tariffs isolating the EU dairy sector from international trade. In addition, exports subsidies allowed successful competition with exports from third countries, not only for intervention products but also for other dairy products like whole milk powder. However, with the restructuring of the support starting with the Agenda 2000, the coupled market price support in form of intervention prices of butter and skimmed milk powder were stepwise reduced in favour of decoupled payments. Also invention purchases were restricted and the abolition of the milk quota regime was announced for 2014/15 and phased in by yearly increases of the national quotas. At the same time applied export refunds were suspended for most dairy products.

In Germany, productivity gains and other factors induce structural changes in agriculture since decades. While the number of farms decreases simultaneously average farm sizes with respect to area and herd sizes increases. Conflicts between agricultural reality and society’s perception will always surface when production methods of large farms become public and significantly divert from the societal expectations mainly if the society still have romantic views from story-books in their mind. In this study societal perception of structural change in agriculture is analyzed using a mixed method approach to identify the main conflicts and to evaluate options to cope with these. In the focus group discussions as well as in the online survey a rejecting or critical attitude towards structural change in agriculture was stated. Structural change in agriculture was often associated with ‘mass production’, ‘mechanization’ or ‘agrarian factories’. Participants requested a restructuring of agriculture towards smaller and more diversified farms; however, most are aware that the technical progress require also adjustments in the agriculture. As expected, results do not provide an easy solution to cope with societal expectations. Responsibility for a better alignment of structural change to societal expectations is seen multi-layered: The government, the farmers, the processing industry as well as the consumers seem to be in demand.

This report gives an overview on the Russian agri-food sector and provides an outlook for the developments in agricultural markets for Russia, focussing on the main agricultural commodities. For the purpose of the study a detailed dataset and modelling structure for the main agricultural commodities in Russia has been developed and integrated into the overall AGMEMOD modelling framework., JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Economy

The potential accession of Turkey to the EU, and the related adoption of the CAP by Turkey, is expected to influence agricultural markets in both the EU and Turkey. The extent of the accession impacts depends on the one hand on the way the CAP will be implemented in Turkey, while on the other hand impacts are expected to be also shaped by macroeconomic conditions (like exchange rates, GDP growth and inflation levels). In this paper we provide a comprehensive model-based assessment of the potential impacts on agricultural markets of a Turkish accession to the EU. We first assess the impacts under the assumption of standard macroeconomic projections, then we analyse how a different TL/Euro exchange rate, a doubling of the Turkish inflation rate or a doubling of the Turkish GDP growth rate would influence the accession impacts. Results of the Turkish EU-membership simulation show that the impacts on agricultural markets in Turkey are significant, while effects on EU markets are rather limited. The main impact on Turkish agriculture is a reduction of producer prices. With market prices and produced quantities declining, and as the coupled Turkish direct payments and the input subsidies will be replaced by lower payments of the CAP, agricultural income is expected to be reduced especially for Turkish crop producers (except for tobacco). In contrast, accession effects on the Turkish livestock sector are projected to be positive, mainly due to lower feed costs. Furthermore, the demand levels of most commodities are projected to increase due to lower prices, thus Turkish consumers are expected to gain from an accession to the EU. The further analysis reveals that in particular a depreciation of the Turkish lira alters the results of the accession scenario.

This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the project has also been the integration of an endogenous world market price module including a stylized Rest of the World (ROW) model. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a strong focus on plant production in general and on grain based animal production; Russia and Ukraine are mostly net-exports of those products. Under the baseline, in Russia prices for crops and oilseeds are below the world market price level. In general, the removals of the trade measures in Russia and Ukraine are projected to induce world market prices of cereals and oilseeds to decline.

Based on existing literature this paper reviews expectations of consumers, producers, other interest groups and citizens with respect to animal welfare and animal husbandry and indicates knowledge gaps as well. Findings enable us to develop a holistic research approach to analyse consumers’ and other interest groups’ preferences, expectations and concerns as well as requests of citizens. In order to reduce the gap between different perspectives regarding modern animal husbandry, these results will be used to improve communication between farmers and consumers or the society, respectively. It will facilitate the necessary integration of social concerns in the development of animal husbandry systems. An interdisciplinary network of researchers is aimed at.

This report gives an overview on the Ukrainian agri-food sector and provides an outlook for the developments in agricultural markets for Ukraine, focussing on the main agricultural commodities. For the purpose of the study a detailed dataset and modelling structure for the main agricultural commodities in Ukraine has been developed and integrated into the overall AGMEMOD modelling framework., JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Economy

A German federal research was established to analyse determinants on school milk demand. Among those, individual factors, like children’s eating habits, attitudes, preferences and socio-economic variables were considered but also contextual factors like attitudes and habits of class teachers and school variables were regarded; and more, price effects on demand were derived via a price experiment. As girls order significantly less school milk than boys this paper aims to analysis gender-specific decisions. In the analysis, a database is used in which individual order information are merged with survey results concerning pupils, parents, class teachers, school principals and school milk managers of the sampled schools. A multilevel analysis is applied, because included explanatory variables of gender-specific school milk orders can be assigned to different groups (individual, class, school, price phase) in which the independence of variable distributions may be hampered; whereas equations are established as ordinary logistic function. Estimates for both genders comprise individual factors affecting positively the school milk orders like e.g., the provision of school milk free of charge, or when pupils think that `milk tastes good´ and contextual factors such as their class teachers’ involvement. Gender-specific distinctions cover e.g., the fact that male pupils have a higher probability to order school milk and react to price incentives. Concerning the context variables, boys react to teachers and principal attitudes. In contrast, with girls prices have a very limited impact, but their parents and teachers are regarded as role models. Girls prefer more choices in product differentiation. These results indicate gender-specific programs integrating their family and teachers, and a wider range of product choices.

Replaced with revised version of paper 12/01/11.

The paper investigates the CAP impacts on the EU agriculture by means of policy simulations conducted with the AGMEMOD model. To isolate the policy effects in the historical period 2000-2005, counterfactual simulations for this period are run. To simulate the response of the EU agriculture on different policy changes in the period 2006-2020, a ‘no-policy change’ baseline scenario is developed and then policy experiments are conducted such as the abolition of milk quota, the implementation of the regional payments and some budget cuts. To identify the policy effects, the policy scenarios are compared with the ‘no-policy change’ baseline.

Given the recent steadily declining consumption of school milk in Germany, a research project was set up by the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection, in affiliation with other institutions, to retrieve quantifiable information on the different influencing factors and to provide approaches for improving the school milk demand. Main objectives are to evaluate impacts of factors like price, attitudes and habits (especially consumption habits), social background, gender, economic situation, knowledge, product range and distribution form, as well as of nutritional education measures. Primary schools in North Rhine Westphalia were selected by stratified random sampling. Price impacts are derived by an experiment in which the price of school milk was reduced stepwise during the school year 2008/09, and increased over the school year 2009/10, while quantities of demand were reported regularly – either for individuals or on class level - for the selected schools. Almost all other information/data is captured by questionnaires given to pupils, parents, class teachers, school principals, school milk managers, and delivery firms. Preliminary results of a multilevel analysis based on a subset of already available data indicate that the demand on the class level is influenced by girls’ share, migrants’ share, class year, class size, attitude of school principal, municipal size, and last but not least the price.

This technical note provides the detailed projection results of the study “Modelling and Analysis of the European Milk and Dairy Market”.

This technical note provides the detailed projection results of the study “Modelling and Analysis of the European Milk and Dairy Market”.

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Consortium under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), in cooperation with the European Commission's Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS). The report provides a quantitative assessment of possible implications of a dairy policy reform and other policy adjustments on the milk and dairy market as well as on other agricultural markets in the EU-27, EU-15, EU-12, the individual Member States and their regional groupings using the AGMEMOD model.

The study analysed existing databases for agricultural market data on errors and discrepancies and to elaborate the possibilities to harmonise datasets for policy modelling. The study supports DG AGRI in improving quality and timely availability of data for market modelling and ensuring that data from different sources are consistent. This study aims to provide a structure for a consolidated database for policy modelling which does not alter existing databases. Within this report, existing databases are analysed to derive key insights for setting-up a harmonised metabase. As available databases comprise statistical databases as well as scientific model databases, both groups are studied. For the purpose of this study, statistical databases are defined as providers of the information that international institutes receive from their reporters, while the reporters are required to provide harmonised, complete, consistent, and where possible, timely data series for establishing models or other quantitative methods. Nevertheless, a statistical database can also serve as a model database, such as e.g. PS&D. Statistical databases from international institutions (FAO, USDA, Eurostat), as well as model databases (AGLINK/COSIMO, AGMEMOD, CAPRI/CAPSIM, ESIM, FAPRI, GTAP, FARM, IMPACT), were studied to find ways of consolidating data and providing insights that allow for a better comparison of model results. For this reason, various classification schemes used in agricultural statistics were reviewed (country, product, balance item, year, unit), as was the manner in which the different modelling groups have dealt with these classifications in their databases. Besides a common classification, a harmonised database for market modelling purposes will require further efforts to be applied to a consolidation effort for the original data. Such a procedure must be supplemented by methods dealing with completion and balancing., JRC.J.5-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Economy

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate yearly projections for the main agricultural commodity markets from 2005 until 2015. This report describes the modelling techniques used by the AGMEMOD Partnership, with emphasis on new commodities modelled and policy modelling approaches. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS Scientific and Technical Report Series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities"

The AGMEMOD Partnership seeks to capture the inherent existing heterogeneity of agricultural systems by linking together individual EU Member State models, an aggregated EU model and several accession countries into one single model, while still maintaining analytical consistency. Although this approach facilitates the comparison of the impact of a policy change across different Member States, it generates challenges in practical implementation, ranging from significant communication and administration requirements, to aggregation and consistency issues. This contribution provides insights into the different challenges posed to the scientists and discusses the key issues for maintenance and further development of such a complex system. Specific attention is paid to technical devices and tools as well as to the design of institutional settings to achieve consistency.

This summary report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report gives a general overview of the modelling approach, the description and implementation of the baseline, further CAP reform and exchange rate change scenarios. It outlines the main results for the aggregates EU-10, EU-15, EU-25 and EU-27, focusing in particular on the features implemented in this study, and addresses issues that need further attention. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".

The AGMEMOD Partnership seeks to capture the inherent heterogeneity of the agricultural systems existing by combining individual country models of 27 EU Member States and several accession countries into one single model while still maintaining analytical consistency. Although this approach facilitates the comparison of the impact of a policy across different Member States, it generates challenges in practical implementation, ranging from high communication and administration requirements to aggregation and consistency issues. This contribution provides insights into the different challenges posed to the scientists and discusses the key issues for maintenance and further development of such a complex system. Specific attention is paid to technical devices and tools as well as to the design of institutional settings for avoiding inconsistencies.

This report is based on a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report outlines the results of the baseline projections of agricultural commodity markets, further CAP reform scenario impact analyses and exchange rate change sensitivity analyses for each EU-25 Member State (except Malta and Cyprus). For Bulgaria and Romania enlargement and non-enlargement scenarios are analysed. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".

Against the background of increasing concerns regarding the energy supply security as well as environmental concern the interest for renewable energy sources has increased in recent years. The biofuel sector, backed by public policies, experienced a strong increase in and outside Europe. A methodology that allows for the estimation of the impacts of the fulfilment of the proposed biofuel targets in the EU member states is proposed and implemented in the AGMEMOD model for France and Germany. The so called normative approach, based on the use of a logistic function as biofuel demand function allows to perform simulations to assess the impact of the biofuel demand expansion on agricultural markets. The implemented approach and the simulation results indicate that crops production would adjust to the modified demand situation and depending on the proposed scenario the domestic supply would not be enough for the achievement of the biofuel targets in France and Germany.

This study provides an in-depth model based quantitative analysis of the implications of the dairy policy reform on the milk and dairy market as well as on other agricultural markets in the EU27, EU15, EU12 and the individual MS. The objectives of the study are threefold: 1. to assess the implications of changing policy and market conditions on EU agriculture with special emphasis on milk quota phasing out and export subsidy removal by using a modelling tool; 2. to carry out policy relevant scenarios reflecting deregulation (e.g. quota abolition), changes in quota and price levels, different types and levels of direct payments; and 3. to analyse the implications of policy reform scenarios and to draw appropriate policy recommendations. Based on an overview of the existing approaches used to analyse the dairy market, the necessary adjustments to the AGMEMOD model are developed. Projections are made under a baseline of no policy change for a time horizon of 10 years for selected individual MS, the EU15 in aggregate, EU12 in aggregate (12 MS from May 2004), and the EU27 in aggregate. This baseline is contrasted with a series of scenarios which involve an increase and eventual elimination of the EU milk quota. The increase in EU milk production under the scenarios is smaller than the increase in milk quota. Milk quota rents fall to zero relatively quickly due to rising input costs and falling milk prices. However, the milk price path under the scenarios is not hugely different to that of the baseline, so it can be said that the general international market conditions in dairy and animal feed are the main drivers of the observed outcomes. In some MS, expansion potential is quite strong and in such cases production continues to expand even after quotas are removed in those scenarios which involve a larger milk quota expansion in advance of its elimination.

This summary report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report gives a general overview of the modelling approach, the description and implementation of the baseline, further CAP reform and exchange rate change scenarios. It outlines the main results for the aggregates EU-10, EU-15, EU-25 and EU-27, focusing in particular on the features implemented in this study, and addresses issues that need further attention. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate yearly projections for the main agricultural commodity markets from 2005 until 2015. This report describes the modelling techniques used by the AGMEMOD Partnership, with emphasis on new commodities modelled and policy modelling approaches. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS Scientific and Technical Report Series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities"

This report is based on a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report outlines the results of the baseline projections of agricultural commodity markets, further CAP reform scenario impact analyses and exchange rate change sensitivity analyses for each EU-25 Member State (except Malta and Cyprus). For Bulgaria and Romania enlargement and non-enlargement scenarios are analysed. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".

The paper presents an extended gravity equation application for the global trade with ethanol. The background and different attempts for a theoretical foundation of the standard approach are discussed. The econometric work takes regional integration schemes into account, as well as the influence of the production factor agricultural land and the level of oil prices on the world market. Results indicate that global bilateral trade flows of ethanol can be explained by a set of comprehensive explanatory variables, including regional agreements and the price level of oil. From a global perspective the EU effect on trade flows is trade diverting as the regional agreement reduces the linkage to world markets and increases the intra-regional level of trade with ethanol. The analysis over time however indicates that the decoupling of the EU ethanol market from the world market is decreasing, potentially reflecting demand increases within the EU.

The paper discusses differences in the approaches of the different partial equilibrium models, one of which is a synthetic model (GAPsi), and the other an econometrically estimated model (AGMEMOD). For example, distinctions are to be found in the general approach of the outlay of the models as the synthetic model incorporates only prices impacts and some shifts, while the econometric model also includes other influencing factors. Price formation in GAPsi comprises a system including policy measures such as price differentiations, whereas AGMEMOD’s key price formation is based on an key-price equation, or respectively, the price transmission. Here policy instruments are modelled directly as explaining variables. These differences induce certain deviation in the model results for our example beef when the Luxembourg Agreement is simulated.