Search

Recent research on the bivariate flood peak/volume frequency analysis has mainly focused on the statistical aspects of the use of various copula models. The interplay of climatic and catchment processes in discriminating among these models has attracted less interest. In the paper we analyse the influence of climatic and hydrological controls on flood peak and volume relationships and their models, which are based on the concept of comparative hydrology in the catchments of a selected region in Austria. Independent flood events have been isolated and assigned to one of the three types of flood processes: synoptic floods, flash floods and snowmelt floods. First, empirical copulas are regionally compared in order to verify whether any flood processes are discernible in terms of the corresponding bivariate flood-peak relationships. Next the types of copulas, which are frequently used in hydrology are fitted, and their goodness-of-fit is examined in a regional scope. The spatial similarity of copulas and their rejection rate, depending on the flood type, region, and sample size are examined, too. In particular, the most remarkable difference is observed between flash floods and the other two types of flood. It is concluded that treating flood processes separately in such an analysis is beneficial, both hydrologically and statistically, since flood processes and the relationships associated with them are discernible both locally and regionally in the pilot region. However, uncertainties inherent in the copula-based bivariate frequency analysis itself (caused, among others, also by the relatively small sample sizes for consistent copula model selection, upper tail dependence characterization and reliable predictions) may not be overcome in the scope of such a regional comparative analysis.

Changes in snowpack and duration of snow cover can cause changes in the regime of snow and rain-snow induced floods. The recent IPCC report suggests that, in snow-dominated regions such as the Alps, the Carpathian Mountains and the northern parts of Europe, spring snowmelt floods may occur earlier in a future climate because of warmer winters, and flood hazards may increase during wetter and warmer winters, with more frequent rain and less frequent snowfall. The monitoring and modelling of snow accumulation and snow melting in mountainous catchments is rather complicated, especially due to the high spatial variability of snow characteristics and the limited availability of terrestrial hydrological data. An evaluation of changes in the snow water equivalent (SWE) during the period of 1961–2010 in the Upper Hron river basin, which is representative of the mountainous regions in Central Slovakia, is provided in this paper. An analysis of the snow cover was performed using simulated values of the snow water equivalent by a conceptual semi-distributed hydrological rainfall-runoff model. Due to the poor availability of the measured snow water equivalent data, the analysis was performed using its simulated values. Modelling of the SWE was performed in different altitude zones by a conceptual semi-distributed hydrological rainfall-runoff model. The evaluation of the results over the past five decades indicates a decrease in the simulated snow water equivalent and the snow duration in each altitude zone and in all months of the winter season. Significant decreasing trends were found for December, January and February, especially in the highest altitude zone.

The work aims at analyzing the bivariate relationship between flood peaks and flood volumes, with a particular focus on the type and seasonality of flood generation processes. Instead of the usual approach that deals with an analysis of the annual maxima of flood events, the current analysis includes all independent flood events in a catchment. Flood events are considered independent when they originate from distinguishably different synoptic/meteorological situations. The target region is located in the northern part of Austria, and consists of 72 small and mid-sized catchments. On the basis of the discharge measurements with a time resolution of 1 h from the period 1976–2007, independent flood events were identified and were assigned to one of the three following flood generation type categories: synoptic floods, flash floods and snowmelt floods. These were subsequently divided into two seasons, thereby separating predominantly rainfall-fed and snowmelt-fed floods. Nine frequently-used copula types were locally fitted to the samples of the flood type and seasonal data. Their goodness-of-fit was examined locally as well as analyzed in a regional scope. It was concluded that (i) treating flood processes separately is beneficial for the statistical analysis; (ii) suitability patterns of acceptable copula types are distinguishably different for the seasons/flood types considered, (iii) the Clayton and Joe copulas shows an unacceptable performance for all the seasons/flood types in the region; (iv) the rejection rate of the other copula types depends on the season/flood type and also on the sample size; (v) given that usually more than one statistically suitable dependence model exists, an uncertainty analysis of the design values in the engineering studies resulting from the choice of model seems unavoidable; (vi) reducing uncertainty in the choice of model could be attempted by a deeper hydrological analysis of the dependence structure between flood peaks and volumes in order to give hydrological support to the decision on model's suitability in specific regions and for typical flood generation mechanisms.

The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Design flood estimates require a consideration of the hydrological, meteorological and physiographical situation, the legal requirements, and the available estimation techniques and methods. In the last decades changes in floods have been observed (Hall et al., 2014) which makes design flood estimation particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. A significant problem may arise in small catchments that are poorly gauged or when no recorded data exist. To obtain the design values in such cases, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service – Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites, including those in Slovakia. Since the method was derived on the basis of the specific characteristics of selected river basins in the United States, it may lead to significant uncertainties in other countries with different hydrological conditions. The aim of this study was to test the SCN-CN method and derive regional runoff curve numbers based on rainfall and discharge measurements for selected region in Slovakia. The results show that the classical CN method gives too high estimates of event runoff depths and is not valid in the study area. To avoid the overestimation of runoff caused by extreme rainfall events, the use of the empirically derived regional runoff curves was tested and finally proposed for practical application in engineering hydrology.

The current work addresses one of the key building blocks towards an improved understanding of flood processes and associated changes in flood characteristics and regimes in Europe: the development of a comprehensive, extensive European flood database. The presented work results from ongoing cross-border research collaborations initiated with data collection and joint interpretation in mind. A detailed account of the current state, characteristics and spatial and temporal coverage of the European Flood Database, is presented. At this stage, the hydrological data collection is still growing and consists at this time of annual maximum and daily mean discharge series, from over 7000 hydrometric stations of various data series lengths. Moreover, the database currently comprises data from over 50 different data sources. The time series have been obtained from different national and regional data sources in a collaborative effort of a joint European flood research agreement based on the exchange of data, models and expertise, and from existing international data collections and open source websites. These ongoing efforts are contributing to advancing the understanding of regional flood processes beyond individual country boundaries and to a more coherent flood research in Europe.

This study addresses the question of the existence of a parent flood frequency distribution on a European scale. A new database of L-moment ratios of flood annual maximum series (AMS) from 4105 catchments was compiled by joining 13 national data sets. Simple exploration of the database presents the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution as a potential pan-European flood frequency distribution, being the three-parameter statistical model that with the closest resemblance to the estimated average of the sample L-moment ratios. Additional Monte Carlo simulations show that the variability in terms of sample skewness and kurtosis present in the data is larger than in a hypothetical scenario where all the samples were drawn from a GEV model. Overall, the generalized extreme value distribution fails to represent the kurtosis dispersion, especially for the longer sample lengths and medium to high skewness values, and therefore may be rejected in a statistical hypothesis testing framework as a single pan-European parent distribution for annual flood maxima. The results presented in this paper suggest that one single statistical model may not be able to fit the entire variety of flood processes present at a European scale, and presents an opportunity to further investigate the catchment and climatic factors controlling European flood regimes and their effects on the underlying flood frequency distributions.

This study aims to better understand the effect of catchment scale and climate on the statistical properties of regional flood frequency distributions. A database of L-moment ratios of annual maximum series (AMS) of peak discharges from Austria, Italy and Slovakia, involving a total of 813 catchments with more than 25 yr of record length is presented, together with mean annual precipitation (MAP) and basin area as catchment descriptors surrogates of climate and scale controls. A purely data-based investigation performed on the database shows that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution provides a better representation of the averaged sample L-moment ratios compared to the other distributions considered, for catchments with medium to higher values of MAP independently of catchment area, while the three-parameter lognormal distribution is probably a more appropriate choice for drier (lower MAP) intermediate-sized catchments, which presented higher skewness values. Sample L-moment ratios do not follow systematically any of the theoretical two-parameter distributions. In particular, the averaged values of L-coefficient of skewness (L-Cs) are always larger than Gumbel's fixed L-Cs. The results presented in this paper contribute to the progress in defining a set of "process-driven" pan-European flood frequency distributions and to assess possible effects of environmental change on its properties.

Since medium and long-term precipitation forecasts are still not reliable enough, rough estimates of the degree of the extremity of forthcoming flood events that might occur in the course of dangerous meteorological situations approaching a basin could be useful to decision-makers as additional information for flood warnings. One approach to answering such a problem is to use real-time data on the soil moisture conditions in a catchment in conjunction with estimates of the extremity of the future rainfall and experience with the basin's behaviour during historical floods. A scenario-based method is proposed for such a future flood risk estimation, based on an a priori evaluation of the extremity of hypothetical floods generated by combinations of synthetic extreme precipitation and previously observed antecedent pre-flood basin saturations. The Hron river basin, located in central Slovakia, was chosen as the pilot basin in the case study. A time series of the basin's average daily precipitation was derived using spatial interpolation techniques. A lumped HBV-type daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model was adopted for modelling runoff. Analysis of the relationship of the modelled historical pre-flood soil moisture and flood causing-precipitation revealed the independence of both quantities for rainfall durations lasting 1 to 5 days. The basin's average annual maximum 1 to 5 day precipitation depths were analysed statistically and synthetic extreme precipitation scenarios associated with rainfall depths with return periods of 5, 20, 50 and 100 years, durations of 1 to 5 days and temporal distribution of extreme rainfall observed in the past were set up for runoff simulation. Using event-based flood simulations, synthetic flood waves were generated for random combinations of the rainfall scenarios and historical pre-flood soil moisture conditions. The effect of any antecedent basin saturation on the extremity of floods was quantified empirically and critical values of the basin saturation leading to floods with a higher return period than the return period of precipitation were identified. A method for implementing such critical values into flood risk warnings in a hydrological forecasting and warning system in the basin was suggested.

The major event that hit Europe in summer 2021 reminds society that floods are recurrent and among the costliest and deadliest natural hazards. The long-term flood risk management (FRM) efforts preferring sole technical measures to prevent and mitigate floods have shown to be not sufficiently effective and sensitive to the environment. Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) mark a recent paradigm shift of FRM towards solutions that use nature-derived features, processes and management options to improve water retention and mitigate floods. Yet, the empirical evidence on the effects of NBS across various settings remains fragmented and their implementation faces a series of institutional barriers. In this paper, we adopt a community expert perspective drawing upon LAND4FLOOD Natural flood retention on private land network (https://www.land4flood.eu) in order to identify a set of barriers and their cascading and compound interactions relevant to individual NBS. The experts identified a comprehensive set of 17 barriers affecting the implementation of 12 groups of NBS in both urban and rural settings in five European regional environmental domains (i.e., Boreal, Atlantic, Continental, Alpine-Carpathian, and Mediterranean). Based on the results, we define avenues for further research, connecting hydrology and soil science, on the one hand, and land use planning, social geography and economics, on the other. Our suggestions ultimately call for a transdisciplinary turn in the research of NBS in FRM., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere 1 . These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe 2 . Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe 3 , because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century 4,5 , suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale., (Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long-term experiments on physical-chemical-biological process interactions, and a focus on connectivity and patterns across spatial scales. It is suggested that these strategies will stimulate new research that coherently addresses the issues across hydrology, soil and agricultural sciences, forest engineering, forest ecology, and geomorphology.

The aim of this paper is to analyse the differences in the long-term regimes of extreme precipitation and floods across the Alpine-Carpathian range using seasonality indices and atmospheric circulation patterns to understand the main flood-producing processes. This is supported by cluster analyses to identify areas of similar flood processes, both in terms of precipitation forcing and catchment processes. The results allow to isolate regions of similar flood generation processes including southerly versus westerly circulation patterns, effects of soil moisture seasonality due to evaporation and effects of soil moisture seasonality due to snow melt. In many regions of the Alpine-Carpathian range, there is a distinct shift in flood generating processes with flood magnitude as evidenced by a shift from summer to autumn floods. It is argued that the synoptic approach proposed here is valuable in both flood analysis and flood estimation.