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The success of a cement production project depends on the raw material supply. Longterm quarry production planning (LTQPP) is essential to maintain the supply to the cement plant. The quarry manager usually attempts to fulfil the complicated calculations, ensuring a consistent supply of raw materials to the cement plant while guaranteeing technical and operational parameters in mining. Modern quarry management relies on block models and mathematical algorithms integrated into the software to optimize the LTQPP. However, this method is potentially sensitive to geological uncertainty in resource estimation, resulting in the deviation of the supply production of raw materials. More importantly, quarry managers lack the means to deal with these requirements of LTQPP. This research develops a stochastic optimization framework based on the combination of geostatistical simulation, clustering, and optimization techniques to optimize the LTQPP. In this framework, geostatistical simulation techniques aim to model the quarry deposit while capturing the geological uncertainty in resource estimation. The clustering techniques are to aggregate blocks into selective mining cuts that reduce the optimization problem size and generate solutions in a practical timeframe. Optimization techniques were deployed to develop a new mathematical model to minimize the cost of producing the raw mix for the cement plant and mitigate the impact of geological uncertainty on the raw material supply. Matlab programming platform was chosen for implementing the clustering and optimization techniques and creating the software application. A case study of a limestone deposit in Southern Vietnam was carried out to verify the proposed framework and optimization models. Geostatistical simulation is applied to capture and transfer geological uncertainty into the optimization process. The optimization model size decreases significantly using the block clustering techniques and allowing generate solutions in a reasonable timeframe on ordinary computers. By considering mining and blending simultaneously, the optimization model minimizes the additive purchases to meet blending requirements and the amount of material sent to the waste dump. The experiments are also compared with the traditional optimization framework currently used for the deposit. The comparisons show a higher chance of ensuring a consistent supply of raw materials to the cement plant with a lower cost in the proposed framework. These results proved that the proposed framework provides a powerful tool for planners to optimize the LTQPP while securing the raw material supply in cement operations under geological uncertainty.:Title page _ i Declaration_ ii Acknowledgements _ i Publications during candidature_ii Abstract _iii Table of contents _v List of figures_viii List of tables _ xi List of abbreviations _xii Chapter 1 . Introduction _1 1.1 Background _1 1.2 Statement of the problem _2 1.3 Research aims and objectives_ 3 1.4 Scope of research _4 1.5 Research methodology _ 4 1.6 Significance of theresearch_5 1.7 Organization of thesis _6 Chapter 2 . Literature review _ 8 2.1 Introduction _ 8 2.2 Cement raw materials _8 2.3 Cement production process _ 8 2.3.1 Raw material recovery _9 2.3.2 Raw material processing_10 2.4 Impact of raw materials on the cement production process _12 2.5 Quarry planning and optimization _13 2.6 Long-term production planning (LTPP) problem _14 2.6.1 Deterministic approaches to solve the LTPP problem_15 2.6.2 Stochastic approaches for solving the LTPP problem_21 2.7 Conclusion_26 Chapter 3 . A stochastic optimization framework for LTQPP problem_28 3.1 Introduction_28 3.2 Deposit simulation_29 3.2.1 Simulating the rock type domains using SIS_30 3.2.2 Simulating the chemical grades within each domain conditionally to rock type domains, using SGS_30 3.3 Block clustering _31 3.4 The mathematical formulation for the LTQPP problem_32 3.4.1 Notation_34 3.4.2 Mathematical formulation_36 3.5 Numerical modelling_39 3.5.1 Clustering _39 3.5.2 SMIP formulation_41 3.6 Conclusion _47 Chapter 4 . Hierarchical simulation of cement raw material deposit_ 49 4.1 Introduction _49 4.2 Research area _ 50 4.2.1 General description_50 4.2.2. Data set_50 4.3. Application of hierarchical simulation _53 4.3.1 Rock-type simulation _ 53 4.3.2 Grade simulation _60 4.4. Discussion_73 4.5. Conclusion_76 Chapter 5 . Application of the stochastic optimization framework_77 5.1 Introduction_77 5.2 Implementation of KHRA _77 5.3 Implementation of the SMIP model _78 5.3.1 Sensitivity of the penalty cost _80 5.3.2 The effectiveness of the SMIP model _82 5.4 Risk mitigation _85 5.5 Conclusion _87 Chapter 6 . Conclusions and future works _ 89 6.1 Conclusions _89 6.2 Future works _91 References_ 93 Appendix I. Software Application _100 A.I.1 Introduction _100 A.I.2 Input preparation _101 A.I.2.1 Format of block model input _101 A.I.2.2 Import block model input _102 A.I.2.2 Cost assignment _104 A.I.2.3 Size reduction _ 107 A.I.3 Optimization _110 A.I.3.1 Destination _110 A.I.3.2 Production capacity _ 111 A.I.3.3 Additive purchase _ 111 A.I.3.4 Pit slopes _ 111 A.I.3.5 Optimization _ 112 A.I.4 Visualization of optimization results _112

Ziel dieser Arbeit war es, systematisch Möglichkeiten zur gezielten und qualitativen Entkopplung von Umweltauswirkungen im Rahmen der Verantwortungsaussage des SDG 12 in Bezug auf einzelne Stoffströme zu identifizieren. Zu diesem Zweck wurde ein Schema zur Bewertung der Verantwortung erstellt, das sich auf die Systemgrenzen der Umwelt und die systemischen Produktionsströme einzelner Materialien konzentriert. Einzelne generische Prozesseinheiten wurden identifiziert und Umweltindikatoren, die Planetary Boundaries, ausgewählt. Das entwickelte Schema wurde dann in einer Fallstudie mit dem Beispielmaterial Aluminium auf seine Funktionalität getestet, indem das Material mit den Umweltindikatoren in jeder Prozesseinheit seiner spezifischen Produktionsroute kalibriert wurde. Dabei zeigte sich, dass die entwickelte Bewertung in der Tat eine systematische Identifizierung des Entkopplungsraums innerhalb eines Materialflusses ermöglicht und somit als funktional und übertragbar auf andere Materialflüsse und andere Dimensionen wie die soziale oder wirtschaftliche sowie die Verbrauchsdimension angesehen werden kann.:1 Introduction 2 Context of the Thesis 3 Sustainable Development Theories - The Road to Sustainable Industrial Development 4 Objectives and Structure of the Thesis 5 Development of a Responsibility Assessment Scheme 7 Aluminium as Key Material in our Society 8 The Aluminium Production System 9 Assessment Instructions 10 Case study – Aluminium Life Cycle and Planetary Boundary Matrix Calibration 11 Evaluation, Discussion of Results and Conclusion 12 Bibliography This thesis aimed to systematically identify opportunities for targeted and qualitative environmental impact decoupling within the responsibility proposition of SDG 12 in relation to single material flows. To do this a responsibility assessment scheme was created that focused on the system boundaries environment and systemic production flows of single materials. Individual generic unit processes were identified and environmental indicators, the Planetary Boundaries, were chosen. The scheme designed was then tested in a case study for its functionality with the example material Aluminium, through calibrating the material with the environmental indicators in each unit process of its specific production route. This showed that the assessment designed indeed allowed for systematic identification of decoupling space within a material flow and can thus be considered as functional and transferrable to other material flows and other dimensions like the social or economic, as well as the consumption dimension.:1 Introduction 2 Context of the Thesis 3 Sustainable Development Theories - The Road to Sustainable Industrial Development 4 Objectives and Structure of the Thesis 5 Development of a Responsibility Assessment Scheme 7 Aluminium as Key Material in our Society 8 The Aluminium Production System 9 Assessment Instructions 10 Case study – Aluminium Life Cycle and Planetary Boundary Matrix Calibration 11 Evaluation, Discussion of Results and Conclusion 12 Bibliography

We develop an econometric modelling framework to forecast commodity prices taking into account potentially different dynamics and linkages existing at different states of the world and using different performance measures to validate the predictions. We assess the extent to which the quality of the forecasts can be improved by entertaining different regime-dependent threshold models considering different threshold variables. We evaluate prediction quality using both loss minimization and profit maximization measures based on directional accuracy, directional value, the ability to predict adverse movements and returns implied by a trading strategy. Our analysis provides overwhelming evidence that allowing for regime-dependent dynamics leads to improvements in predictive ability for the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, as well as for its five sub-indices (energy, industrial metals, precious metals, agriculture, livestock). Our results suggest the existence of a trade-off between predictive ability based on loss and profit measures, which implies that the particular aim of the prediction exercise carried out plays a very important role in terms of defining which set of models is the best to use.

In order to market its gas reserves, Israel has until now relied on exports to Egypt and Jordan. Through regional networking in the energy sector - for example, within the framework of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), which was founded at the beginning of 2019 - the Israeli government hopes to improve its political relations in the region. At the same time, Israel is investing hope in the building of the EastMed gas pipeline. Its construction would create a direct export link to Europe, but it would thereby also undermine energy cooperation with its Arab neighbours. The Euro­pean Union (EU) should promote regional energy cooperation, as this could pro­mote part­nerships in other areas. Accordingly, the EU should not support the con­struction of the EastMed pipeline. Um seine Gasvorkommen zu vermarkten, setzt Israel bislang auf Exporte nach Ägyp­ten und Jordanien. Durch regionale Vernetzung im Energiebereich, etwa im Rahmen des Anfang 2019 gegründeten Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forums (EMGF), verspricht sich die israelische Regierung bessere politische Beziehungen mit der Region. Gleich­zeitig hofft Israel auf den Bau der EastMed-Pipeline. Sie würde einen direkten Export­link nach Europa schaffen, damit aber die Energiekooperation mit den arabischen Nach­barn unterminieren. Die Europäische Union (EU) sollte die regionale Energie­koopera­tion befördern, da diese die Zusammenarbeit auf anderen Gebieten begünstigen könnte. Ent­sprechend sollte die EU den Bau der EastMed-Pipeline nicht unterstützen.

This thesis is concerned with the statistical modelling of long-run equilibrium relationships between economic variables. It comprises of four main chapters - each representing a standalone research paper. The connecting thread is the use of nonlinear cointegration models. More precisely: Chapter 2, Asymmetric price transmission in the US and German fuel markets: A quantile autoregression approach, proposes a new econometric model for asymmetric price transmissions using quantile regressions. Chapter 3, Are gold and silver cointegrated? New evidence from quantile cointegration, investigates the potentially nonlinear long-run relationship between gold and silver prices. Chapter 4, Testing for cointegration with SETAR adjustment in the presence of structural breaks, develops a new cointegration test with SETAR adjustment allowing for the presence of structural breaks in the equilibrium equation. Chapter 5, A Markov regime-switching model of crude oil market integration, revisits the globalization-regionalization hypothesis for the world crude oil using a Markov-switching vector error correction model. Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der statistischen Modellierung von langfristigen Gleichgewichtsbeziehungen ökonomischer Variablen. Die Arbeit besteht im Wesentlichen aus vier Kapiteln, die jeweils eine separate Forschungsarbeit enthalten. Dabei dient die Verwendung von nichtlinearen Kointegrationsmodellen als Bindeglied. Kapitel 2, „Asymmetric price transmission in the US and German fuel markets: A quantile autoregression approach“, diskutiert ein neues ökonometrisches Modell für asymmetrische Preistransmissionen. Kapitel 3, “Are gold and silver cointegrated? New evidence from quantile cointegration“, untersucht die möglicherweise nichtlineare Langfristbeziehung zwischen Gold- und Silberpreisen. Kapitel 4, „Testing for cointegration with SETAR adjustment in the presence of structural breaks“, entwickelt einen neuen Kointegrationstest mit SETAR Adjustierung und der Möglichkeit von Strukturbrüchen in der Gleichgewichtbeziehung. Kapitel 5, „A Markov regime-switching model of crude oil market integration“, untersucht die globalization-regionalization Hypothese für den globalen Rohölmarkt mittels eines Markov-switching Kointegrationsmodells.

"Dieser Artikel beschäftigt sich mit der Agrartreibstoffpolitik der Europäischen Union (EU) und den Auswirkungen dieser Politik auf Indonesien. Das südostasiatische Land ist weltweit führender Produzent und Exporteur von Palmöl, dem derzeit billigsten Rohstoff für die Produktion von Biodiesel, und dieser Sektor expandiert aufgrund der politischen und ökonomischen Anreize ungehindert weiter. Der Artikel analysiert die Interessen und Strategien der zentralen Stakeholder in der indonesischen Palmöl- und Agrartreibstoffindustrie, beleuchtet das dahinterstehende Entwicklungsmodell und analysiert die Reaktionen zur Nachhaltigkeitsproblematik in Bezug auf die Abholzung von Regenwald, Landkonflikte und Verlust von Biodiversität durch die Expansion von Monokulturen und industrieller Landwirtschaft." (Autorenreferat), "This paper deals with agro fuel policies within the European Union (EU) and the consequences of these policies in Indonesia. That South-East-Asian country is the world leader in the production and exportation of palm oil, which is one of the cheapest feedstocks for the production of biodiesel. Recently, production has expanded significantly due to the incentives of the international energy market. This paper analyses the interests and strategies of the key players in the palm oil and agro fuels business in Indonesia, looks at the model of development they (re-)produce, and analyses their reactions to the problem of sustainability in relation to deforestation, land conflicts, and biodiversity loss through the expansion of monocultures and industrial agriculture." (author's abstract)

This paper argues that SSA has derived a minimal growth benefit from trade because of what it exports and that the detrimental effect of primary commodity export dependence on SSA growth can be captured by two structural variables, natural barriers to trade (NBT, trade costs) and natural resource endowments (NRE, primary commodity dependence). The analysis is based on a large panel of developing countries for 1970 to 2008 and explicitly tests for threshold effects in the structural variables. We find that high trade costs and natural resource endowments have a negative effect on growth and that the combination of these two factors accounts for the SSA dummy: SSA countries tend to have high values of NRE and NBT and this helps to explain why SSA countries experienced lower growth than other developing countries (the significant negative dummy for SSA). The trade variables also performed as expected. Exports and trade openness generally contribute to growth, but their effect on growth is affected by the structural variables; specifically high values as observed in SSA dampen the positive impact of trade on growth. The poor growth of SSA relative to other regions is largely accounted for by the combination of natural resource endowments and high transport costs so that the dependence on primary commodity exports has not supported growth.

Brazil today is considered, on the international scene, as an 'emerging nation', doted with an integrated industrial complex, as well as on a modern system of education and research and on means of communication (telephone, radio, television, internet, etc.) which permit the rapid and efficient circulation of information. None of these characteristics would have been valid prior to 1930, when the country presented an economy dominated by the exportation of tropical products, political power was fragmented into more than twenty federal units with no real coordination by the central government installed in Rio de Janeiro, intellectual life was restricted to a few old exportation ports. This paper aims at a better understanding of how Brazil transformed itself during the 20th century, from a structured archipelago around 'islands' of agro-industrial plantations (coffee, sugarcane, etc.) to a 'continent' marked by fast industrialization. Beside these evolutive perceptions of Brazil's space, we must take into account the social and intellectual courses of the key leaders during the 1930's uprising, such as Juarez Távora and José Américo de Almeida from the North, or Getúlio Vargas and Osvaldo Aranha from the South, the most significant figures of the national movement. All these leaders come from the same social background of agrarian elites, but they had established political parties supporting very different ideologies, from nationalism to the acknowledgement of the US hegemony, from the labour party to liberalism. The paths of these elites show fairly well the diverse alternatives which have marked state-building and nation-building in contemporary Brazil., Historical Social Research Vol. 33, No. 2 (2008): Special Issue: Elite Formation in the Other Europe (19th-20th Century) Starting Point and Frequency: Year: 1979, Issues per volume: 4, Volumes per year: 1

The corrosion behaviour of silicon nitride materials in acids strongly depends on the composition and amount of the grain boundary. But there exist no systematic investigations of the relation between the corrosion behaviour and the composition and amount of the grain-boundary phase. The aim of the series of these papers is the systematic investigation of these relations. In the first part the methods of determination of the amorphous grain-boundary phases are described in detail. Additionally, the correlation between the corrosion behaviour and the composition of the grain-boundary phases are given. The structural reasons and the mechanisms behind the observed changes in the corrosion behaviour will be given in part II of this paper.

We examine how globalization affects trade patterns and welfare when conflict prevails domestically. We do so in a simple model of trade, in which a natural resource like oil is contested by competing groups using real resources (?guns?). Thus, conflict is viewed as ultimately stemming from imperfect property-rights enforcement. When comparing autarky with free trade in such a setting, the gains from trade have to be weighed against the possibly higher resource costs of conflict. We find that importers of the contested resource gain unambiguously. By contrast, countries exporting the contested resource will lose under free trade, unless the international price of the resource is sufficiently high. Regardless of what price obtains in international markets, countries tend to over-export the contested resource relative to what we would observe if there were no conflict; for some range of prices, the presence of conflict even inverts the country's comparative advantage. We find further that an increase in the international price of the contested resource over an even wider range reduces welfare, an instance of the ?natural resource curse.?

The economic literature of property rights has been assessing the impact of different community based arrangements on the efficiency of natural resource management of specific areas. Differently, other strands of development economics and policy-oriented research have been concerned with issues such as poverty alleviation, technological progress and the capability to compete in market economies, which go beyond the local areas where traditional communities live and include the wider economy. The extractive reserves in the Brazilian Amazon offer perhaps one of the most interesting cases for investigating the connections between these two approaches in the context of tropical forests. It is based on the idea that the combination of public property with collective use in particular forest areas can generate competitive and, at the same time, sustainable exploitation of its natural resources. This paper aims to analyse whether the existing property rights support the joint objective of conservation and development. Our main result is that current property rights systems are efficient only with respect to competition in markets for existing extractive products. This finding points out to a fundamental contradiction between the static structure of the property rights systems and the dynamic nature of two most promising development paths, namely the discovery of new products and the supply of biological inputs for plantations. The current model of extractive reserves based on the design of internal property rights fails to taken into account the broader economic context where the reserves must generate a viable revenue stream. We conclude therefore that under the current set of institutions, the development objectives inherent in the extractive reserves model are likely to face probably considerable challenges to be accomplished in the future.

We study the possibility of cartel formation among primary exporters who face an inelastic world demand for their exports. By constructing an appropriate infinitely repeated export game, we show that varying country sizes will pose difficulties in sustaining the collusive behaviour.