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The Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) forecasting model is a space–time point-process model based on the precursory scale increase (⁠|$\psi $|) phenomenon and associated predictive scaling relations. It has been previously applied to New Zealand, California and Japan earthquakes with target magnitude thresholds varying from about 5–7. In all previous application, computations were done using the computer code implemented in Fortran language by the model authors. In this work, we applied it to Italy using a suite of computing codes completely rewritten in Matlab. We first compared the two software codes to ensure the convergence and adequate coincidence between the estimated model parameters for a simple region capable of being analysed by both software codes. Then, using the rewritten codes, we optimized the parameters for a different and more complex polygon of analysis using the Homogenized Instrumental Seismic Catalogue data from 1990 to 2011. We then perform a pseudo-prospective forecasting experiment of Italian earthquakes from 2012 to 2021 with M w ≥ 5.0 and compare the forecasting skill of EEPAS with those obtained by other time independent (Spatially Uniform Poisson, Spatially Variable Poisson and PPE: Proximity to Past Earthquakes) and time dependent [Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS)] forecasting models using the information gain per active cell. The preference goes to the ETAS model for short time intervals (3 months) and to the EEPAS model for longer time intervals (6 months to 10 yr). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a mapped landslide inventory coupled with a 2‐m resolution vertical difference model covering an area of 6,875 km2 to accurately constrain landslide volume‐area relationships. We use the difference model to calculate the source volumes for landslides triggered by the MW 7.8 Kaikōura, New Zealand, earthquake of 14 November 2016. Of the 29,519 mapped landslides in the inventory, 28,394 are within the analysis area, and of these, we have calculated the volume of 17,256 source areas that are ≥90% free of debris. Of the 28,394 landslides, about 80% are classified as soil or rock avalanches and the remainder as mainly translational slides. Our results show that both the soil avalanches and the rock avalanches, ignoring their source geology, have area to volume power‐law scaling exponents (γ) of 0.921 to 1.060 and 1.040 to 1.138, respectively. These are lower than the γ values of 1.1–1.3 (for soil) and 1.3–1.6 (for rock) reported in the literature for undifferentiated landslide types. They are, however, similar to those γ values estimated from other coseismic landslide inventories. In contrast, for 50 selected rotational, translational (planar slide surfaces), or compound slides, where much of the debris remains in the source area, we found γ values range between 1.46 and 1.47, indicating that their slide surfaces were considerably deeper than those landslides classified as avalanches. This study, like previous studies on coseismic landslides, shows that soil and rock avalanches (disrupted landslides) are the dominant landslide type triggered by earthquakes and that they tend to be shallow. Key Points: We use a 2‐m resolution vertical difference model to estimate source volumes for 17,256 landslides with sources ≥90% free of debris triggered by the MW7.8 2016 Kaikōura EarthquakeThe model was derived by subtracting a tectonically adjusted pre‐EQ surface model from a post‐EQ model, covering an area of 6,875 km2Landslide trigger mechanism, type/failure mode, and source material are critical for accurate estimation of landslide volumes from source‐area geometries [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Huimin Wu,1 Dorothy A Rhoades,2 Sixia Chen,3 Brent Brown1 1Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, Oklahoma City, OK, USA; 2General Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, and Stephenson Cancer Center, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, OK, Oklahoma, USA; 3Biostatistics and Epidemiology, College of Public Health, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, Oklahoma City, OK, USACorrespondence: Huimin WuPulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, 800 Stanton L Young Blvd, Suite 8400, Oklahoma City, OK, 73104, USATel +1 405-271-6173Fax +1 405-271-5892Email huimin-wu@ouhsc.eduPurpose: The prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and comorbidities (eg diabetes and obesity) among Native American (NA) population are higher than among the general US population. However, studies of COPD in NAs are scarce. Oklahoma has the largest NA population affiliated with federally recognized tribes in the country and is an ideal location for such research. A pilot study was designed to investigate the characteristics of NA patients with COPD exacerbations in a tertiary academic medical center.Patients and Methods: We conducted a retrospective exploratory study of NA adults with COPD exacerbation hospitalizations and/or emergency department visits at the University of Oklahoma Medical Center between July 2001 and June 2020. Medical records were reviewed to confirm COPD exacerbation and outcomes, including death, mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit (ICU) stay, home oxygen, and 30-day readmission. Additional collected data included socio-demographics, body mass index, diabetes, other COPD comorbidities and clinical variables.Results: Of 630 encounters reviewed, 159 met the inclusion criteria, representing 91 patients. Most patients were female (64%), obese or overweight (68%), and had diabetes (42%) or hypertension (71%). Mean age was 60 years old, but women were 5 years younger than men. Among the 76 patients with COPD hospitalizations, 31 patients (41%) had an intensive care unit (ICU) stay and 19 (25%) were intubated in their last hospitalization. Among 9 patients (10%) with 30-day readmissions, 8 were female. Medicare, Indian Health Service, Tribal health service, or Medicaid were the most frequently used payment sources. Sex, diabetes, and obesity were not associated with hospital length of stay, 30-day readmission or supplemental O2 use.Conclusion: Hospitalized NA COPD patients at this tertiary care center had multiple comorbidities. Many required ICU care and intubation. Larger studies of the risk and mitigating factors for COPD health outcomes in NA patients are needed.Keywords: COPD, Native American, comorbidities, hospitalization

It is well known that large earthquakes generally trigger aftershock sequences. However, the duration of those sequences is unclear due to the gradual power-law decay with time. The triggering time is assumed to be infinite in the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, a widely used statistical model to describe clustering phenomena in observed earthquake catalogues. This assumption leads to the constraint that the power-law exponent p of the Omori-Utsu decay has to be larger than one to avoid supercritical conditions with accelerating seismic activity on long timescales. In contrast, seismicity models based on rate- and statedependent friction observed in laboratory experiments predict p ≤ 1 and a finite triggering time scaling inversely to the tectonic stressing rate. To investigate this conflict, we analyse an ETAS model with finite triggering times, which allow smaller values of p. We use synthetic earthquake sequences to show that the assumption of infinite triggering times can lead to a significant bias in the maximum likelihood estimates of the ETAS parameters. Furthermore, it is shown that the triggering time can be reasonably estimated using real earthquake catalogue data, although the uncertainties are large. The analysis of real earthquake catalogues indicates mainly finite triggering times in the order of 100 days to 10 years with a weak negative correlation to the background rate, in agreement with expectations of the rate- and state-friction model. The triggering time is not the same as the apparent duration, which is the time period in which aftershocks dominate the seismicity. The apparent duration is shown to be strongly dependent on the mainshock magnitude and the level of background activity. It can be much shorter than the triggering time. Finally, we perform forward simulations to estimate the effective forecasting period, which is the time period following a mainshock, in which ETAS simulations can improve rate estimates after the occurrence of a mainshock. We find that this effective forecasting period is only in the order of 100 days for moderate mainshocks and in the order of a few years for large events, even if the underlying triggering process lasts much longer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence, which began in September 2010, occurred in a region of low crustal deformation and previously low seismicity. Because, the ensuing seismicity in the region is likely to remain above previous levels for many years, a hybrid operational earthquake forecasting model for Canterbury was developed to inform decisions on building standards and urban planning for the rebuilding of Christchurch. The model estimates occurrence probabilities for magnitudes M ≥ 5.0 in the Canterbury region for each of the next 50 yr. It combines two short-term, two medium-term and four long-term forecasting models. The weight accorded to each individual model in the operational hybrid was determined by an expert elicitation process. A retrospective test of the operational hybrid model and of an earlier informally developed hybrid model in the whole New Zealand region has been carried out. The individual and hybrid models were installed in the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre and used to make retrospective annual forecasts of earthquakes with magnitude M > 4.95 from 1986 on, for time-lags up to 25 yr. All models underpredict the number of earthquakes due to an abnormally large number of earthquakes in the testing period since 2008 compared to those in the learning period. However, the operational hybrid model is more informative than any of the individual time-varying models for nearly all time-lags. Its information gain relative to a reference model of least information decreases as the time-lag increases to become zero at a time-lag of about 20 yr. An optimal hybrid model with the same mathematical form as the operational hybrid model was computed for each time-lag from the 26-yr test period. The time-varying component of the optimal hybrid is dominated by the medium-term models for time-lags up to 12 yr and has hardly any impact on the optimal hybrid model for greater time-lags. The optimal hybrid model is considerably more informative than the operational hybrid model at long time-lags, but less so when the period of the Canterbury earthquakes is excluded from the tests. The results highlight the value of including medium-term models and a range of long-term models in operational forecasting. Based on the tests carried out here, the operational hybrid model is expected to outperform most of the individual models in the next 25 yr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Potential earthquake sources are revealed by the locations of earthquakes in historical and instrumental catalogs and of geologically mapped faults, including plate boundaries. We derive a set of multiplicative hybrid earthquake likelihood models that combine earthquake and fault data for the New Zealand region. In these models, the cell rates in a spatially uniform baseline model are scaled using selected subsets of five covariates derived from the magnitudes and locations of past earthquakes, the location of the boundary between the Australian and Pacific plates, and the location and slip rate of mapped faults. The hybrid model parameters are optimized for earthquakes of M 5 and greater over the period 1987- 2006 and tested on earthquakes from the period 2007-2014. No updating of models is undertaken during the fitting or testing period, but we consider two cases of the earthquake-based covariates in the tests: (1) all data prior to 1987 and (2) all data prior to 2007, respectively. Hybrids containing the earthquake-based covariates perform better in the latter case. The most informative hybrid models in the fitting and testing period are composed of three and four covariates, respectively, including both earthquake- and fault-based variables. Proximity to mapped faults is overall the most informative individual covariate. These results can be used to inform better modeling of long-term earthquake occurrence rates for probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment in California tested the performance of earthquake likelihood models over a five-year period. First-order analysis showed a smoothed-seismicity model by Helmstetter et al. (2007) to be the best model. We construct optimal multiplicative hybrids involving the best individual model as a baseline and one or more conjugate models. Conjugate models are transformed using an order-preserving function. Two parameters for each conjugate model and an overall normalizing constant are fitted to optimize the hybrid model. Many two-model hybrids have an appreciable information gain (log probability gain) per earthquake relative to the best individual model. For the whole of California, the Bird and Liu (2007) Neokinema and Holliday et al. (2007) pattern informatics (PI) models both give gains close to 0.25. For southern California, the Shen et al. (2007) geodetic model gives a gain of more than 0.5, and several others give gains of about 0.2. The best three-model hybrid for the whole region has the Neokinema and PI models as conjugates. The best three-model hybrid for southern California has the Shen etal. (2007) and PI models as conjugates. The information gains of the best multiplicative hybrids are greater than those of additive hybrids constructed from the same set of models. The gains tend to be larger when the contributing models involve markedly different concepts or data. These results need to be confirmed by further prospective tests. Multiplicative hybrids will be useful for assimilating other earthquake-related observations into forecasting models and for combining forecasting models at all timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New information on the timing of past ruptures, size of single-event displacements and Holocene dextral slip rate of the Wairarapa and Ōhariu faults has become available from recent geological studies. This information is used to evaluate the conditional probability of rupture over the next 100 yr using four different recurrence–time models, allowing for data and parameter uncertainties. The sensitivity of estimates to data and distributional assumptions is examined. The southern Wairarapa Fault has a probability of rupture in the next 100 yr of c. 7.7, 1.3, 2.3 and 4.3% under the exponential, lognormal, Weibull and inverse Gaussian models, respectively, based on preferred data inputs. Corresponding estimates for the Ōhariu Fault are c. 4.3, 5.1, 3.9 and 5.1%. A logic tree with subjectively assigned weights is suggested to combine such differing time-dependent estimates. This gives a 100-yr conditional probability of rupture of c. 3.0% for the southern Wairarapa Fault and c. 4.9% for the Ōhariu Fault. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We use a database of approximately 200,000 modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) observations of California earthquakes collected from USGS "Did You Feel It?" (DYFI) reports, along with a comparable number of peak ground-motion amplitudes from California seismic networks, to develop probabilistic relationships between MMI and peak ground velocity (PGV), peak ground acceleration (PGA), and 0.3-s, 1-s, and 3-s 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (PSA). After associating each ground-motion observation with an MMI computed from all the DYFI responses within 2 km of the observation, we derived a joint probability distribution between MMI and ground motion. We then derived reversible relationships between MMI and each ground-motion parameter by using a total least squares regression to fit a bilinear function to the median of the stacked probability distributions. Among the relationships, the fit to peak ground velocity has the smallest errors, though linear combinations of PGA and PGV give nominally better results. We also find that magnitude and distance terms reduce the overall residuals and are justifiable on an information theoretic basis. For intensities MMI 5 our results are in close agreement with the relations of Wald, Quitoriano, Heaton, and Kanamori (1999); for lower intensities, our results fall midway between Wald, Quitoriano, Heaton, and Kanamori (1999) and those of Atkinson and Kaka (2007). The earthquakes in the study ranged in magnitude from 3.0 to 7.3, and the distances ranged from less than a kilometer to about 400 km from the source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An earthquake occurrence model aimed at forecasting main shocks can be adjusted to allow for the occurrence of aftershocks conforming to well-known empirical relations describing their temporal decay, magnitude distribution and spatial extent. Modifications are proposed to the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) long-range forecasting model to allow for the occurrence of aftershocks of predicted events. Using earthquake catalogues of California and the Kanto region, central Japan, versions of the modified and original EEPAS model are fitted to a period of about 10 yr and independently tested on a later period of about 10 yr of each catalogue. For the testing period, the increase in the log-likelihood per earthquake of the modified models over their original counterparts is about 0.1 on average. This gives preliminary confirmation of the efficacy of the modifications. Versions of the modified model will be submitted to regional testing centres of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability for further independent performance testing in real time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The University of South Carolina School of Medicine introduced a seminar in 2003 to teach communication and listening skills to third year medical students. The students learned a structured communication format called 'L-I-S-T-E-N' which they utilized to conduct a life review with an adult over age 65. The faculty evaluated this educational experience using transcribed audiotapes of the life reviews, reflection papers written by the students, and interviews with students and mentors about the life review session. The life review experience increased students' understanding of how psychosocial, cultural, spiritual, and life-changing events affect health and health behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The architecture and design of the IBM eServer™ BladeCenter® system make it an ideal platform for many information technology (IT) solutions. Its high availability, modularity, flexible infrastructure integration, and on demand configuration options have prompted developers within IBM and in end-user IT organizations to create solutions tailored to a particular industry or function. This paper describes the BladeCenter system in the application of several of these solutions--their target enterprises, end-users, and key benefits. High-performance and scientific clusters, branch-office-in-a-box, financial services, and hostedclient solutions are reviewed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kinetic stabilization of amyloidogenic immunoglobulin light chains (LCs) through small molecule binding may become the first treatment for the proteinopathy component of light chain amyloidosis (AL). Kinetic stabilizers selectively bind to the native state over the misfolding transition state, slowing denaturation. Prior λ full-length LC dimer (FL LC 2 ) kinetic stabilizers exhibited considerable plasma protein binding. We hypothesized that the coumarin "aromatic core" of the stabilizers was responsible for the undesirable plasma protein binding. Here, we describe structure-activity relationship (SAR) data initially focused on replacing the coumarin aromatic core. 2-pyridones proved suitable replacements. We subsequently optimized the "anchor substructure" in the context of 2-pyridones, resulting in potent λ FL LC 2 kinetic stabilizers exhibiting reduced plasma protein binding. The 3-methyl- or 3-ethyl-3-phenylpyrrolidine-2-pyridone scaffold stabilized multiple AL patient-derived λ FL LC 2 s in human plasma. This, coupled with X-ray crystallographic data, indicates that 3-alkyl-3-phenylpyrrolidine-2-pyridone-based stabilizers are promising candidates for treating the proteinopathy component of AL.