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The study was undertaken to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade openness on the economic growth of Nigeria from 1980 to 2017 using the VECM and Granger causality tests. Data was collected from the World Development Indicators published by the World Bank and regressed using the unit root test of Augmented Dickey Fuller to determine the stationarity of the individual variables. Johansen cointegration technique was used to examine the cointegration relationship between the variables. The results show that there exists a positive long-run relationship between FDI and gross domestic product (GDP) and a negative long-run relationship between trade openness and GDP. Thus, to capture the short-run effects, the vector error correction model was estimated. Finally, Granger causality test was employed to investigate the causality between them. There was a unidirectional relationship between the variables. From the findings, to revamp the Nigerian economy, the government should implement quality conflict management institutions, ensure export oriented trade policies, and invest more in infrastructural developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a recession in the global economy since its onset at the end of 2019. According to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report issued in October 2021, the global real GDP growth rate for 2019 was 2.9, then declined and reached -3. The BRICS organisation is a major player in the global economy, and Algeria's application to join it was recently rejected, Therefore, this study aims to discuss the impact of the pandemic on the real GDP of these countries by examining the variables during the pandemic period and the relationship between them, as the study concluded that it had a negative impact as a consequence of the lockdown decision more than being affected by the percentage of deaths from Covid-19 by relying on annual real GDP data and the annual incidence and mortality rate per million population for the countries under study during the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to identify the causal relationship between fishery GDP and the economic growth of Oman. The study analyzes the contribution of fishery production, licenses issued, and fishery exports to the GDP of the fishery sector. The time series data on fishery production, GDP, license issued, and volume of exports for the period of 1998–2021 has been used in this study. The VAR lag selection criterion, ADF unit root test, pairwise Granger causality, ordinary least squares method, and vector autoregression lag order model have been used as tools for analyses. The finding states that there is a unidirectional relationship between GDPF2 (GDP fishery in second order) and GDPT (Real GDP of the country). The past value of GDPT can predict the value of GDPF2, and there exists a causal relationship (independence) between the real gross domestic product of the country and fishery production. The study also found that, though GDPF2 is mostly affected by fishery production, the number of licenses issued, and the volume of exports have no significant impact on GDP. It has been recommended that the government should focus on its export and licensing policies to improve the fishing industry's proportionate share of economic growth.

Realisation of specialisation in areas dominated by technological production structure and the technological level of exported goods are essential determinants of macroeconomic performance. Therefore, the export structure and technological level of exported goods are highly significant. In this study, the relationship between real GDP and exports of goods produced in BRICS-T countries with low, medium, and high levels of skill and technology is investigated. In the panel data analysis using data for the period 1995-2020, the cointegration relationship between the variables was examined, and it was concluded that there is no long-run relationship between real GDP and goods produced in labour-resource intensive, low, medium, and high skill and technology levels of countries. In addition, a causality test using Dumitrescu and Hurlin's (2012) linear heterogeneous model was carried out. The test results showed a unidirectional causality relationship between real GDP and goods with low and high skill and technology but a bidirectional causality relationship between real GDP and labour-resource-intensive goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to identify the causal relationship between fishery GDP and the economic growth of Oman. The study analyzes the contribution of fishery production, licenses issued, and fishery exports to the GDP of the fishery sector. The time series data on fishery production, GDP, license issued, and volume of exports for the period of 1998-2021 has been used in this study. The VAR lag selection criterion, ADF unit root test, pairwise Granger causality, ordinary least squares method, and vector autoregression lag order model have been used as tools for analyses. The finding states that there is a unidirectional relationship between GDPF2 (GDP fishery in second order) and GDPT (Real GDP of the country). The past value of GDPT can predict the value of GDPF2, and there exists a causal relationship (independence) between the real gross domestic product of the country and fishery production. The study also found that, though GDPF2 is mostly affected by fishery production, the number of licenses issued, and the volume of exports have no significant impact on GDP. It has been recommended that the government should focus on its export and licensing policies to improve the fishing industry's proportionate share of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the impact of oil price fluctuations on food prices in Saudi Arabia between 1979 and 2020 using Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) methodology. The study employs Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests to determine the integration order of the variables and Bounds testing to confirm the existence of long run cointegration relationships between each variable. The results indicate that oil shocks influence food prices through several mechanisms. Firstly, the cost of energy increases due to the rise in oil prices, affecting the agricultural commodity market, including farm equipment, food processing, packaging, and distribution costs. Secondly, the demand for agricultural commodities to produce biofuels affects food availability and thus food prices. Thirdly, as an oil-based economy, the oil price shock affects food prices through its impact on government spending, which affects aggregate demand and liquidity. Therefore, Saudi Arabia should adopt appropriate policies to mitigate the impact of oil price shocks on food prices, including investing in renewable energy sources, diversifying its economy, and improving food production and supply chain efficiency. Additionally, implementing appropriate fiscal policies to ensure sufficient budget allocation for food support programs is crucial. However, Investing in groundwater exploration can contribute significantly to the development of Saudi agriculture and to gradually achieving food self-sufficiency.

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This study assesses the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic factors and bank asset quality based on changes in the condition of stock market returns. A dynamic panel two-step system, the Generalized Method of Moments (system GMM) model, is employed using panel data from 18 universal banks spanning the period of 2007 to 2021. The analysis revealed that the real GDP growth rate, the average lending rate, and the real exchange rate represent a set of macroeconomic factors with a marked influence on banks' asset quality, where a unit increase in these variables drive 0.02 percent, 0.98 percent, and 0.27 percent improvement in asset quality, respectively. In addition, a high-inflation rate was found to exert an adverse effect of −0.32 percent on asset quality, as it affects borrowers' financial ability to meet loan repayment obligations. Furthermore, the study verified the existence of a positive relationship between market condition and asset quality, where a rise in the market return drives a 0.07 percent improvement in bank asset quality. This implies that bank performance adapts to changes in market conditions as posited under the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). Bank managers should consolidate banks' asset bases during conditions of market stability to withstand periodic market fluctuations to boost trading momentum. Policy recommendations are suggested to foster a conducive business environment for bank stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has become a big source of non-debt funding in the world economy over the past 20 years. The goal of this study is to look at what makes Brazil and India attract FDI. The goal of this study is to figure out the most important reasons why FDI into India and Brazil keeps going up. The most important factors that affect FDI imports in Brazil and India are found using panel data regression analysis. The panel unit-root test, the Fisher Johansen test of cointegration, the panel vector error correction model, and the panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) model has all been used to look at the data. In this study, FDI flows are considered as a function of India and Brazil's relative consumer price index, gross domestic product, trade openness, human capital and population. The study shows that the size of the market and the number of people in a country have the biggest positive effects on drawing FDI. Inflation and trade openness, on the other hand, have little to do with attracting FDI to these two countries. Real GDP is used to measure the size of the market, and it is a major positive predictor of FDI. This means that most investment in these countries is driven by a desire to get into the market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the effect of oil price uncertainty shock on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 33 developed and emerging economies using the Global Vector Autoregressive (VAR) framework that allows us to capture the transmission of global shocks while simultaneously accounting for distinct characteristics of individual countries. Utilizing quarterly data over the period of 1980Q1 to 2019Q2, we show that, in general, oil price uncertainty shock has a statistically significant negative impact on GDP for 28 out of the 33 countries, but with varying magnitude and persistence. Overall though, we find the adverse effect on real GDP to be relatively stronger for the developed group of countries than the emerging ones. Hence, our results suggest that policymakers must be ready to undertake expansionary policies (of varying order) in the wake of an oil price uncertainty shock to prevent deep recessions, except in the cases of Norway, Philippines and Saudi Arabia, for which output tends to increase in a statistically significant manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimation of firm growth is increasingly relevant to providers of capital in periods of economic uncertainty. The current study employs univariate and multivariate analyses to assess the impact of real GDP and the dividend payout ratio on earnings growth of JSE-listed firms. The findings reveal that there is no relationship between these hypothesised predictors of earnings growth, despite contrasting results of previous studies. Through the inclusion of real GDP in models that are established in the research, the study contributes to the literature of macroeconomic variables as lead indicators of firms' earnings growth potential. This research also extends prior research on the impact of dividend payout ratio on future earnings growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia is the property of Wydawnictwo SGGW and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The existing wage imbalances, low rates of income growth, and their high differentiation have a negative impact on the socio-economic development of Russia, which determines the relevance of this study. The purpose of this work is to analyze the impact of economic growth rates in Russia on the dynamics of per capita income of the population and inequality in its distribution. Methods. Methods of analysis, synthesis, and comparison were used. The main method of research is the method of statistical analysis based on the requirements of an objective and comprehensive analysis of the income of the population. Results and conclusions. Statistical data for the period from 2000 to 2020 are analyzed, showing the growth in the increasing inequality in the distribution of monetary incomes of the population by the amount of per capita monetary income in the country as a whole for the analyzed period. The relationship between the rates of economic growth and the level of differentiation of the population by income is statistically determined. The reasons for this process in Russia are highlighted. After analyzing the degree of differentiation by a set of indicators, among which the main ones were the fund ratio and the Gini coefficient, it was found that economic growth alone does not solve the problem of economic inequality. During the analyzed period, high rates of economic growth in Russia were accompanied by increased differentiation of the population by income, which has its justification. It was also revealed that the real income of the population grows when the economic growth rate, expressed in real GDP growth, exceeds three percent. At the same time, a more tangible improvement in the financial situation of the population is observed at real GDP growth rates of over five percent.

This study examines the role of the global financial cycle (GFCy) in the propagation of uncertainty shocks from the United States to other national economies using a large‐scale global vector autoregressive model of 33 countries. Although the dominant role of US uncertainty over global economic dynamics is established, the findings highlight the moderating role of the GFCy in the spillover effects of uncertainty shocks. The US uncertainty shocks, compared with own‐domestic uncertainty shocks, are found to have a more prominent negative impact on output during stressed market conditions, implied by low values of the GFCy, while the impact turns largely insignificant during high GFCy states. The findings provide evidence in favour of a US uncertainty spillover multiplier, suggesting that the design of monetary policy as a response to US uncertainty needs to be contingent on the state of the integrated global financial markets, captured by the GFCy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of trade, that is exports and imports, on economic growth, represented through real GDP and provides policy recommendations. For this purpose, time-series data from 1959 to 2019 collected in Ghana is used, where the export driven growth model is stressed on, and the structural adjustment policy is considered a success. We have conducted two types of computations in order to better discern the data: three separate univariate analyses and thereafter a VAR and VECM. According to our analysis, the results from the univariate time-series indicate that the future values of GDP could, to a limited degree, be predicted by their past values. However, the same cannot be concluded for exports and imports that had badly fitting models, violating normality in the residuals requirements and suffering from autocorrelation. A multivariate analysis was thus used to better understand the relationship between exports, imports and real GDP. A VAR was utilised, subsequently leading to the application of the VECM due to there being cointegration. The results from multivariate analysis indicated that GDP was negatively dependent on its previous value when the lagged values were jointly taken into consideration. Unlike the univariate analysis, the VAR model observes normality, homoscedasticity and no serial autocorrelation. The cointegration test establishes a relationship between Real GDP, exports and imports, with results being significant at 5% level. The test shows that imports have a negative long-run impact on GDP and exports have a positive impact on GDP. The granger causality test shows two things - first, we can predict the value of Real GDP based on the value of exports and second, we can predict the value of imports based on the value of exports. Further, when we conduct VECM analysis, we observe the speed of adjustment for Real GDP to be -28%, which indicates that our model will recover from shocks pretty soon. Thus, Ghana needs to take advantage of its natural resources and train its labour force to develop local production capacity. Export diversification is crucial, and incorporating small enterprises that are drivers in the economy can be used to reduce a reliance on imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research purpose. The purpose of this paper is to examine the efficiency of the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy in a banking system with excess liquidity. More specifically, it aims to examine how the interest rates of the central bank bills and inflation rate affect total lending and the overall economic activity in the country. For this purpose, the analysis is based on the case of the Republic of North Macedonia, whose banking system has exhibited excess liquidity in the past decade.

The article provides a comparative assessment of the socio-economic development results of 12 post-Soviet countries (excluding the Baltic countries) in the period from 1992 to 2019. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of real GDP and GDP per capita, it is concluded that the most successful were some countries of Central Asia (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan) and Armenia. It is noted that in terms of economic development, significant convergence with Russian indicators has been achieved by Kazakhstan and Belarus. The successful economic dynamics was due to the active role of the state, the regulation of exchange rate dynamics and the achievement of a relatively high rate of investments to GDP at certain stages of economic development. On the whole, the problem of high inflation, which was relevant in the 1990s, has been overcome. Social problems of poverty and inequality persist in individual countries, high dependence on external factors of economic dynamics, instability of the exchange rate dynamics and primitivization of the economy still remain as important problems in the region. It is emphasized that the factors of economic growth that operated in the post-Soviet countries during the period under review are coming to an end, which requires a search for a new economic model.

Purpose. This study aims to measure and assess the impact of foreign capital flows, including foreign direct investment, external loans, foreign aid, and remittances from migrants, as independent variables on real GDP as a dependent variable in Algeria during the period 1990–2021 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) time series regression model. Results. The study found the existence of a long-term relationship between the selected economic variables and their impact on real GDP in Algeria, both in the short and long term. Additionally, there is a positive effect of both independent variables representing foreign direct investment and migrant remittances on real GDP. However, there is a negative impact of external loans on real GDP, which can be explained by the misallocation of these loans, with a significant portion directed towards non-productive sectors, negatively affecting the long-term economic growth in Algeria. Scientific novelty. The primary contribution of this study is its comprehensive elucidation of all major forms of foreign capital flows to Algeria and their impact on the Algerian economy, including FDI, foreign aid, external loans, and remittances. This is important because different types of foreign capital flows have different effects on the Algerian economy. In addition, the evolution of foreign capital flows to Algeria over a long period of time, from 1990 to 2021, is studied. This made it possible to identify trends and patterns in foreign capital flows that may not be apparent in short-term studies. Practical value. The results of this study can help policymakers to design policies that maximize the benefits of foreign capital flows while minimizing the risks. And Foreign capital flows can play an important role in helping Algeria to address these challenges and achieve its economic development goals.

This study assesses the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic factors and bank asset quality based on changes in the condition of stock market returns. A dynamic panel two-step system, the Generalized Method of Moments (system GMM) model, is employed using panel data from 18 universal banks spanning the period of 2007 to 2021. The analysis revealed that the real GDP growth rate, the average lending rate, and the real exchange rate represent a set of macroeconomic factors with a marked influence on banks’ asset quality, where a unit increase in these variables drive 0.02 percent, 0.98 percent, and 0.27 percent improvement in asset quality, respectively. In addition, a high-inflation rate was found to exert an adverse effect of −0.32 percent on asset quality, as it affects borrowers’ financial ability to meet loan repayment obligations. Furthermore, the study verified the existence of a positive relationship between market condition and asset quality, where a rise in the market return drives a 0.07 percent improvement in bank asset quality. This implies that bank performance adapts to changes in market conditions as posited under the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). Bank managers should consolidate banks’ asset bases during conditions of market stability to withstand periodic market fluctuations to boost trading momentum. Policy recommendations are suggested to foster a conducive business environment for bank stability.

Typically, the explanatory variables included in a regression model, in conjunction with the omitted relevant regressors implied by the usual error term, have both direct and indirect effects on the dependent variable. Attempts to obtain their separate estimates have been plagued with simultaneity issues. To circumvent these problems, this paper defines their sum as "total effects", develops a time-varying coefficients methodology for their estimation without simultaneity bias, and applies these techniques to estimate the total effects of commercial bank credit per-capita on real GDP per-capita in Mauritius. An innovation is the introduction of extraneous variables that act as "coefficient drivers" chosen on the basis of best predictive performance, as measured by the smallest value of Theil's U-statistic we were able to locate in the estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has been a concern in the public sphere throughout the decades. Also, a constant change in climate as a result of geologic history is posing a global problem. Many earlier studies have focused on various factors; however, this study intends to contribute distinctly; therefore, we select 22 countries among the top 30 forested countries in the world declared by CEO-WORLD in 2020. The study explores the relationship between energy consumption, agricultural value-added, agricultural land, forest area, and real GDP with CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2019. For analysis, we account for heterogeneity in the cross sections by developing a novel panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model in order to capture within-group variations, which is the panel data form of the Shin et al. (2014) model. The Pesaran 2007, CADF and CIPS panel unit root testing results indicate that the investigated variables are stationary at their first differences. The empirical finding shows positive and negative shocks in electricity consumption and agricultural land have a favourable and statistically significant long-term effect on CO2 emissions. Positive shocks in agricultural value-added and forest areas have a significant adverse influence on environmental degradation, while negative shocks have a substantial long-term positive effect on CO2 emissions. Positive shock in real GDP is insignificant, whereas negative shock shows adverse and substantial long-term impacts on CO2 emissions. This research's contributions will help policymakers evaluate energy needs and implement clean energy; combating deforestation will help reduce CO2 emissions and improve the quality of the environment and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we estimate a multi-country Threshold-Augmented Global Vector Autoregressive (TGVAR) model to analyze the response of real GDP of emerging economies (Brazil, India, China, and South Africa) with reference to selected advanced economies (US, UK, & Germany) to the COVID-19 shock. The result of the counterfactual analysis beyond the 2019Q4 indicates that the impact of COVID-19 shock on real GDP is pervasive and more prevalent in the developed than the emerging economies. Our model forecasts real GDP growth of emerging countries more precisely, but we attribute the shortfalls in the projections for advanced economies to the efficacy of fiscal and unconventional monetary policies to speed up the recovery in these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy consumption and economic growth play an important role in the global policy debate among policymakers around the world. This is the first study to investigate the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption at the state level for the U.S. from 2000 to 2016. As opposed to country-level studies, a focus on states within a country allows for comparisons across more homogeneous entities. The four known hypotheses are tested: growth, conservative, feedback, and neutral, differentiating between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption. In order to address endogeneity, two strategies are developed: (1) a static analysis for 2016 where key policy covariates are gradually added to the model, and (2) a dynamic analysis using different generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators. The model is augmented using socioeconomic, regulatory and climatic variables, which allows for the evaluation of policies while facilitating a transition to renewable energy use. Overall, the results show that total energy consumption and non-renewable energy consumption support the feedback hypothesis. Results for renewable energy, industrial energy, and residential energy consumption show more support for the growth hypothesis. These results have policy implications in terms of optimizing decisions and investments to efficiently improve economic growth while reducing energy consumption. • This study explores the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. • Static and dynamic models are run for the years 2000–2016 for the U.S. states. • Renewable, nonrenewable, industrial, and residential energy are analyzed separately. • Total and non-renewable energy consumption support the feedback hypothesis. • Renewable energy consumption supports the growth hypothesis at the state level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan has been facing the problem of energy crisis since 2007 and it has adversely affected the productivity and growth of the economy. To overcome this problem, under CPEC, 21 energy projects have been started in four provinces of Pakistan, Gilgit Baltistan (GB) and Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK). This study tries to access the impact of the CPEC energy project located in the Azad Jammu and Kashmir referred to as the 720MW Karot hydropower project on the economy of Pakistan using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Based on Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) 2010-2011 and) Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, this study simulates the impact of Karot hydropower project on some of the macroeconomic variables. The simulated results reveal that real GDP and total exports to other countries increase owing to the investment in hydropower projects as well as an increase in the supply of electricity. Moreover, investment in the Karot hydropower project also increases the growth of the interlinked sectors such as manufacturing sector, transport, and communication, agriculture and services sector respectively. This study also observes that the real prices of factor input also increase which would have a direct impact on wellbeing of the people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to quantify the relation between real GDP, CO2 emissions, renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption, tourism development and labor force for France and Germany as these two countries are pioneer countries pushing Paris agreement within and outside the European Union. The time spans have been used for the period of 1995–2015 according to data availability. In the presence of cross-sectional dependency, several first and second-generation unit root tests confirm the unit root problem while Pedroni and Westernlund confirm the cointegration. Results reveal an inverted U-shape relation between CO2 emissions and real GDP in long run confirming the validity of environmental Kuznets curve for the group of France and Germany. Results declare that renewable energy significantly reduces carbon emissions while nonrenewable energy consumption adds to carbon emissions. Tourism sector was found helpful in carbon reduction that appeals to attract more tourists for the development of sustainable tourism industry by taking energy conservation and emissions reduction in relevant industries in the full consideration. • This paper explores the determinants of carbon emissions for France and Germany. • An inverted U-shape relation was found between carbon emissions and real GDP in long run. • Results reveal renewable energy helps in carbon emissions reduction. • Nonrenewable energy consumption was adding in CO2 emissions. • Tourism sector was found supportive in carbon reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the dynamic relations between economic activity, tourism expenditures, and real exchange rate in 9 most visited OECD countries using annual panel data for 2005-2019. To examine the dynamic relations, we first carried out the panel unit root tests to determine the degree of the integration of the variables. And then, using the Westerlund error-correction-based panel cointegration test, we found evidence of the existence of long-run relationships among variables. Therefore, we estimated a panel VECM model to obtain evidence of the causal relationship between the variables. According to the major finding of the studies, there is unidirectional causality from the real effective exchange rate and tourism expenditures to real GDP. Also, real exchange rate granger causes tourism expenditures in the short run. Test results also provide evidence that both real effective exchange rate and tourism expenditures granger cause to real GDP in the long run. However, there is no evidence of long-run granger causality when real effective exchange rate and tourism expenditures are dependent variables. The results of the study imply that to create sustainable growth in the sample countries, they should increase the tourism sector's contribution to GDP, and the countries also should maintain their external competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reaction of growth to trade liberalization has varied considerably across countries, with most countries gaining, but others being adversely affected by trade liberalization. Therefore, this study sought to examine the relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth in Ghana. The study used annual time series data covering the period of 1970-2016. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and Granger causality test, the study found that trade openness (proxied for trade liberalization), inflation, and population growth negatively affect the growth rate of the Ghanaian economy in the long-run, whilst exchange rate has a significant and long-run positive effect on economic growth. Also, investment has no impact on economic growth in the long-run. The study further indicated that only inflation and population growth have significant impacts on economic growth in the short-run. The results of the Granger causality test showed that there exists no complementary relationship between trade openness and economic growth in the short-run in Ghana. RESUMEN La reacción del crecimiento a la liberalización del comercio ha variado considerablemente entre los países, y la mayoría de los países están ganando, pero otros se ven perjudicados por la liberalización del comercio. Por lo tanto, este estudio buscó examinar la relación entre la liberalización del comercio y el crecimiento económico en Ghana. El estudio utilizó datos anuales de la serie de tiempo que cubrían el período de 1970-2016. Usando el modelo de Lag distribuida autoregresiva (ARDL) y el test de causalidad de Granger, el estudio encontró que la apertura comercial (proxy para la liberalización comercial), la inflación y el crecimiento demográfico afectan negativamente la tasa de crecimiento de la economía de Ghana a largo plazo, mientras que el tipo de cambio tiene un efecto positivo significativo y a largo plazo sobre el crecimiento económico. Además, la inversión no tiene ningún impacto en el crecimiento económico a largo plazo. El estudio indicó además que sólo la inflación y el crecimiento demográfico tienen impactos significativos en el crecimiento económico a corto plazo. Los resultados de la prueba de causalidad de Granger mostraron que no existe ninguna relación complementaria entre la apertura comercial y el crecimiento económico en el corto plazo en Ghana.

This article tests five major economies of the world, United Kingdom, Japan, Brazil, Chin and lastly, India, for the changes in the monetary policy decisions that have been implemented following the Covid-19 outbreak. The assessment was undertaken in the form of an event study analysis, further substantiated with a regression analysis conducted for exploring the significance of CPI and real GDP in predicting the policy interest rates in the economy. The results of the event study analysis presented that the abnormal changes in the interest rates were statistically significant in the case of the United Kingdom, Brazil, and China, while the abnormal changes were found to be statistically insignificant in the case of India and Japan.

The debate on ecological matters that relate to the biomass emissions nexus has gained prominence and different scholars have suggested various forms of policy directions to tackle the menace. This study seeks to contribute to this subject by examining the impact of biomass energy use on carbon dioxide pollution in the G7 economies context. Thus, to this end, we employed energy usage and GDP measured as economic growth which adds factors that can influence pollution for annual time-frequency between1995 and 2016 for the case of G7 economies. The present study adds to the extant literature by the adoption of the novel econometric techniques such as the panel cross-section augment ARDL and common correlated estimate mean group (CCEMG) to evaluate the impact of biomass energy on pollutants. The empirical results from all the techniques show that biomass energy consumption significantly and negatively correlates to CO2 emissions meaning that it helps to reduce pollution in the long run. On the other hand, there is a significant positive relationship between energy use and pollutants implying that the primary energy use is not favorable for environmental sustainability over the sampled period. Finally, the results proved that GDP increases CO2 emissions in the long run with respect to the G7 context. Thus, validating the growth-induced pollution hypothesis in G7 blocs. On causality relationship, we observe a unidirectional causal relationship between these variables: biomass and pollutants, pollutants and output, biomass and output, biomass and energy use, and output and energy use. While there was a bidirectional causality between energy use and pollutant, these results suggest policy implication for the G7 countries which indicates that stakeholders should give much attention to technological know-how and energy mix particularly biomass energy which is environmentally friendly as well as more paradigm shift to renewables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Succinct exploration of Adolph Wagner's Proposition [WP] 1883 – Peacock and Wiseman 1961version was put to the validation test in the study. At least, this time, for a quinaquina octo annis period, representing the life span of Nigeria. Specific suspicion of shocks from data from the world indicator and monetary authority necessitated the adoption of the ADF test with structural breaks, which came out positive at alternating integrating order. This propelled the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL model path having specified the lag selection automatically. Even though the series showed significant association in the short run, and bi-directional causality, the result of the Bound test – F-statistics (calculated) = 3.42 falls below upper Bound I(0) = 4.68 and lower bound I(1) = 5.15 hence, invalidates the WP position in the long – run in Nigeria. This is an indication that a reduction in non-economically viable and overlapping, funds-straining ministries/departments/agencies (MDA) is indispensable.

The study examined the effect of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in Ghana using a multivariate modeling technique of the Vector Autoregression (VAR) and focusing on impact of broad money supply (M2), lending rate, inflation and real GDP on exchange rate, for 76 quarterly observations period of 2000–2019, in Ghana and to examine their effectiveness in managing exchange rate in Ghana. The study used only secondary sources of data from Bank of Ghana, World Development Indicators and Ghana Statistical Service. It was found that, real GDP granger causes exchange rate in Ghana. However, inflation, money supply and lending rate do not granger cause exchange rate in Ghana but they affect exchange rate indirectly. It was recommended that a sound exchange rate policy should take into account some considerations. The bank of Ghana should try to reduce the lending rate and money supply in order to lower inflation to create rooms for more investors to produce more to increase the GDP produced in the country, in order to depreciate the foreign currency.

Although several empirical studies have investigated the growth impact of the quantity of schooling in African countries, research on the impact of schooling quality (the degree to which schooling nurtures professional and cognitive skills) is rare. To fill this research gap, this study examines the effects of the quantity and quality of education on per capita real-GDP growth in low-income and a combination of low- and middle-income African countries using dynamic generalized method of moment estimation on panel data from 2003 to 2016. The results suggest the quantities of primary and secondary education have a positive and statistically significant impact on per capita real-GDP growth; however, the correlation between the quality of education and economic growth is weak and not robust. Furthermore, standardized coefficients indicate the quantity of primary education has a stronger impact on growth than the quantity of secondary education and quality of education, and the quantity of secondary education has a stronger impact on growth than the quality of education. Overall, these results suggest policy authorities should target both the quantity and quality of education to achieve per capita real-GDP growth, with a particular focus on ensuring universal primary education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current study explored the cogency of the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis (REH) in SAARC. For it, 29 years, time-series data from 1990 to 2018 have been used1. The Fixed effect model and Panel cointegration tests have been applied to consider the affiliation among the regressors. The fallouts of the study indicate that government debt and private consumption have a long-run cointegrated liaison with each other. The outcomes of the study reject the certainty of Ricardian equivalence in SAARC. Along with an upturn in government debt, private consumption increases and people do not postpone current consumption despite increasing government debt and expected taxes, which can be levied in future to repay the debt obligations. In addition, real GDP and Real government expenditure stimulate while real tax revenue discourages private consumption. The study also found two way causality between government debt and private consumption. The results also imply that fiscal policy is adequate to stabilize the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically examines the relationship between energy efficiency, CO2 emissions, foreign direct investment, exports, and real gross domestic product at both aggregate and disaggregate levels in Malaysia based on an autoregressive distributed lag approach. The annual data for the period of 1971–2013 are employed. The results indicate that energy efficiency Granger causes economic growth at the aggregate level, but not in each of the three main sectors (primary, secondary, and tertiary) of the economy. Another important finding of the study is that the export-led growth hypothesis is found to be valid in Malaysia at both the aggregate and disaggregate levels. The results of our study also confirm the fact that CO2 emissions do affect the overall economic performance and growth in all sectors, except for the primary sector. This finding implies that pollution from both secondary and tertiary sectors has led to economic growth in Malaysia. Moreover, it is also discovered that foreign direct investment does not have a significant impact on economic growth in Malaysia. The results of this study are essential for policymakers of Malaysia in designing appropriate policies in each sector that can lead to robust growth in the country. In addition to focusing on enhancing energy efficiency and promoting foreign direct investment, the policymakers should also start to look for alternative strategies to ensure long-term economic growth in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy performances as the essence in the modern economy globally, where the natural gas, the nuclear energy and the oil apprehend the most if its area. These factors are the crucial element on the real GDP of the states. This study investigates the impact of degenerating the natural gas, oil consumption, and the nuclear energy as the depletion in the use of these factors will help the nation to achieve a better real GDP. For this purpose, we taken 10 ASEAN countries in the analysis that includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The independent variables are nuclear energy, oil consumption, and natural gas and their effect is seen on the real GDP. The total electricity consumption is taken as a control variable. The data is collected over a period of 28 years as it is a time series analysis and for this, we have used panel Autoregressive distributed time lag (ARDL) model and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) technique along with unit root tests and the co-integration tests among the variables. The results indicate that oil consumption, nuclear energy, significantly impact the fuel prices and the energy consumption in these countries. The research gives useful directions for the policymakers and the government as how to cope up with the prices of these non-renewable resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examined the effect of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in Ghana using a multivariate modeling technique of the Vector Autoregression (VAR) and focusing on impact of broad money supply (M2), lending rate, inflation and real GDP on exchange rate, for 76 quarterly observations period of 2000–2019, in Ghana and to examine their effectiveness in managing exchange rate in Ghana. The study used only secondary sources of data from Bank of Ghana, World Development Indicators and Ghana Statistical Service. It was found that, real GDP granger causes exchange rate in Ghana. However, inflation, money supply and lending rate do not granger cause exchange rate in Ghana but they affect exchange rate indirectly. It was recommended that a sound exchange rate policy should take into account some considerations. The bank of Ghana should try to reduce the lending rate and money supply in order to lower inflation to create rooms for more investors to produce more to increase the GDP produced in the country, in order to depreciate the foreign currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article the researchers use Lumsdaine and Papell tests for a unit root in the presence of unrestricted structural change and Papell and Prodan test for a unit root in the presence of restricted structural change to study the long-term real gross domestic product (GDP) in the U.S. The unit root null is rejected at the 1% level with both tests. Using the Murray and Nelson method to evaluate the rejections, the researchers discover that, unlike the Augmented-Dickey-Fuller (ADF) tests, the unit root null is not rejected too often if the data generating process is a unit root with transitory fluctuations.

Innovation is coming from new Knowledge, and new Technology. The author select these two countries because Canada has a very strong innovative economy, while Pakistan is not so strong. The study concludes that foreign direct investment, R&D, and High-tech exports have a positive impact on economic growth, and the results show a significant positive impact on GDP, in the case of Canada. While in Pakistan this influence is not significant due to some internal problems that Pakistan faces like a low rate of domestic investment, political instability, less investment in higher education. Therefore, the comparison can be useful in adapting Canada’s innovation policy for Pakistan.

Previous studies on the energy-environment-growth literature overlook the investigation of the most-visited countries. Since these countries do not only belong to the largest economies and the top carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters in the world but are also listed in renewable energy country attractiveness index, this study analyzes the impacts of real GDP, renewable energy and tourism on the level of CO2 emissions for the top 10 mostvisited countries. Applying several panel econometric approaches, we find out that renewable energy mitigates the pollution whereas real GDP and tourism contribute to the level of emissions. Thus, regulatory policies are necessary to increase the awareness of sustainable tourism. In addition, the use of renewable energy and the adoption of clean technologies in tourism sector as well as in producing goods and services play a significant role in CO2 mitigation.

The study examines the impacts of urbanization, energy consumption and real GDP on atmospheric pollution from automobile transport in Azerbaijan in the STIRPAT framework. Since the study uses time series variables the unit root properties of employed variables are tested for non‑stationarity. Stationarity of the data is tested using conventional Augmented Dickey‑Fuller test. The study employs Autoregressive Distributed Lags Bounds Testing (ARDLBT) approach to co‑integration. This method is one of the most preferable approaches among alternatives in the case of small samples. Estimation results indicated that the variables are cointegrated, in another word there is a long‑run relationship among them. In order to test the quality of the model residuals of the model are tested for the serial correlation, heteroskedasticity, and normality. The model is checked for model misspecification and stability. The results of all abovementioned tests are found to be adequate. The highest impact on pollution among the variables belongs to urbanization which is found to be positive and statistically significant. Energy consumption also has a positive and statistically significant impact on emission. The results also confirm that sustainable development can be reached only keeping the balance among environmental, social and economic factors. Findings of the study may be useful in making appropriate decisions in the fields of diminishing atmospheric pollution from automobile transport caused by urbanization related issues.

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This paper analyse the role and importance of the agricultural sector for the economic development of the Republic of North Macedonia. The focus of the research is on the indicators that present the agricultural sector as real GDP and gross added value in the agricultural sector in the Republic of North Macedonia, for the period from 2000 to 2016. General conclusion is that GDP growth in the Republic of North Macedonia in the analysed period arise from the household production and gross investment. Also, agriculture is one of the four dominant sectors beside trade, industry and construction that contribute to economic growth in the Republic of North Macedonia. The share of the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector in the real GDP in the Republic of North Macedonia is around 13%. The largest contribution from agriculture to the GDP of the Republic of North Macedonia arise from the Southeast, Pelagonia and Polog region. Therefore, measures and activities for stimulating economic growth should mostly be directed towards these regions. The relative share of the gross value added of agricultural production in the Republic of North Macedonia is around 10% of GDP and it considered to be important sector for economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]