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We analyze the repercussions of different kinds of uncertainty on cash demand, including uncertainty of the digital infrastructures, confidence crises of the financial system, natural disasters, political uncertainties, and inflationary crises. Based on a comprehensive literature survey, theoretical considerations and complemented by case studies, we derive a classification scheme how cash holdings typically evolve in each of these types of uncertainty by separating between demand for domestic and international cash as well as between transaction and store of value balances. Hereby, we focus on the stabilizing macroeconomic properties of cash and recommend guidelines for cash supply by central banks and the banking system. Finally, we exemplify our analysis with five case studies from the developing world, namely Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya.

Cash usage at the point-of-sale decreased perceptibly in the past years. This is mainly due to the ongoing trend towards digitalization, but there are also indications that consumers were somewhat pushed into cashless payments by government regulations and supply-side restrictions by commercial banks. Nonetheless, overall demand for euro cash remained strong and even increased relative to GDP since the financial crisis in 2008. In this process, however, we observe a supply-driven shift towards lower banknote denominations. Central banks all over the world are intensively thinking about the potential issue of a Central Bank Digital Currency as a substitute or complement to cash. Although the characteristics of a possible digital euro have become more perceptible, its fundamental design properties remain unknown. We propose a double pre-paid scheme combining central elements of TARGET Instant Payment Settlement and electronic money features enabling offline and online instant payments. The issuance of a digital euro would be neutral to total money supply as banks act only as intermediaries. Since anonymity is categorically discarded by the ECB and as cash has some special advantages from a consumer perspective, the digital euro will rather co-circulate with cash than replace it in transactions.

The authors focus on the stabilizing role of cash from a society-wide perspective. Starting with conceptual remarks on the importance of money for the economy in general, special attention is paid to the unique characteristics of cash. As these become apparent especially during crisis periods, a comparison of the Great Depression (1929 – 1933) and the Great Recession 2008/09 shows the devastating effects of a severe monetary contraction and how a fully elastic provision of cash can help to avoid such a situation. The authors find interesting similarities to both crises in two separate case studies, one on the demonetization in India 2016 and the other on cash supply during various crises in Greece since 2008. The paper concludes that supply-driven cash withdrawals from circulation (either by demonetization or by capital controls) destabilize the economy if electronic payment substitutes are not instantly available. However, as there is no perfect substitute for cash due to its unique properties, from the viewpoint of the society as a whole an efficient payment mix necessarily includes cash: It helps to stabilize the economy not only in times of crises in general, no matter which government is in place. The authors argue that it should be the undisputed task of central banks to ensure that cash remains in circulation in normal times and is provided in a fully elastic way in times of crisis.

Despite the increasing use of cashless payment instruments, the notion that cash loses importance over time can be unambiguously refuted. In contrast, the authors show that cash demand increased steeply over the past 30 years. This is not only true on a global scale, but also for the most important currencies in advanced countries (USD, EUR, CHF, GBP and JPY). In this paper, they focus especially on the role of different crises (technological crises, financial market crises, natural disasters) and analyse the demand for small and large banknote denominations since the 1990s in an international perspective. It is evident that cash demand always increases in times of crises, independent of the nature of the crisis itself. However, largely unaffected from crises we observe a trend increase in global cash aligned with a shift from transaction balances towards more hoarding, especially in the form of large denomination banknotes.

In this paper, we focus on the role of different types of crises (technological crises, financial market crises, natural disasters) and their effects on the demand for cash in an international context. It becomes evident that over the past 30 years cash demand always increased in times of crises, independent of the nature of the crisis itself.However, the type of crises determines whether small or large banknote denominations are affected more. In case of payment uncertainties, we find a crisis-related increased demand for small denominations, probably reflecting an increased demand for transaction balances. In times of uncertainties regarding the financial and/or general economic development (also possibly driven by natural disasters), large banknote denominations were comparatively more in demand indicating that the crises-related need for non-transaction balances was the dominant driver.

To broaden the scope of monetary policy, cash abolishment is often suggested as a means of breaking through the zero lower bound. However, practically nothing is said about the welfare costs of such a proposal. Rösl, Seitz and Tödter argue that the welfare costs of bypassing the zero lower bound can be analyzed analytically and empirically by assuming negative interest rates on cash holdings. They gauge the welfare effects of abolishing cash, both, for the euro area and for Germany. Their findings suggest that the welfare losses of negative interest rates incurred by money holders are large, notably if implemented in the current low interest rate environment. Imposing a negative interest rate of 3 percentage points on cash holdings and reducing the interest on all assets included in M3 creates a deadweight loss of € 62bn for the euro area and of €18bn for Germany. Therefore, the authors argue that cash abolishment or negative interest rates on cash to break through the zero lower bound at any price can hardly be a meaningful policy goal.

In this paper, we endeavour to determine the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany that is in circulation outside Germany. In so doing, we draw a distinction between banknotes outstanding in non-euro-area countries and those that are in circulation in other euro-area countries. The analysis is based on approaches that estimate the volume of banknotes in circulation outside Germany indirectly. The observation period runs from 2002 to 2009. We discover that, at the end of 2009, a total of roughly two-thirds of Germany's cumulated net issuance of euro banknotes was in circulation outside Germany. The lion's share of roughly €160 billion was in non-euro-area countries, with the remaining €80 billion in other euro-area countries. Thus, the volume of German euro banknotes in circulation in Germany accounted for only roughly one-third of all banknotes issued by the Deutsche Bundesbank (€350 billion). This confirms the results of direct approaches. In dem vorliegenden Papier versuchen wir den Bestand der Euro-Banknoten zu ermitteln, der sich von der deutschen Banknotenemission im Ausland befindet. Dabei unterscheiden wir nach Beständen, die außerhalb des Euro-Währungsraumes gehalten werden, und solchen, die in anderen Ländern der EWU zirkulieren. Die Analyse basiert auf Ansätzen, die den Auslandsumlauf auf indirektem Wege abschätzen. Der Untersuchungszeitraum reicht von 2002 bis 2009. Wir finden heraus, dass Ende 2009 insgesamt rund zwei Drittel der deutschen kumulierten Nettoemissionen im Ausland umliefen. Der größte Teil, etwa 160 Mrd. €, befand sich außerhalb des Euro-Raums, der Rest - 80 Mrd. € - lief in anderen EWU-Ländern um. Somit entsprach der Inlandsumlauf deutscher Euro-Banknoten nur rund einem Drittel aller von der Bundesbank in Höhe von 350 Mrd. € in Umlauf gegebenen Banknoten. Damit werden die Ergebnisse direkter Ansätze bestätigt.

In this paper, we analyze the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany within the euro area with several seasonal methods. We draw a distinction between movements within Germany, circulation outside Germany but within the euro area and demand from non-euroarea countries. Our approach suggests that only about 20% of euro notes issued by Germany are used for transactions in Germany. The rest is hoarded (10%), circulates in other euro area countries (25%) or is held outside the euro area (45%). In dem vorliegenden Papier analysieren wir die Emissionen von Euro-Banknoten durch die Deutsche Bundesbank anhand verschiedener saisonaler Ansätze. Wir unterscheiden zwischen der Nachfrage aus Deutschland, der Haltung in anderen Euro-Ländern und Umlauf außerhalb des Euro-Währungsgebiets. Es stellt sich heraus, dass nur ca. 20 % der emittierten Banknoten für Transaktionszwecke in Deutschland gebraucht werden. Der Rest wird aus unterschiedlichen Gründen gehortet (10 %), läuft in anderen EWU-Ländern um (25 %) oder wird außerhalb des Euro-Raums gehalten.

In this paper, we endeavour to determine the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany that is in circulation outside Germany. In so doing, we draw a distinction between banknotes outstanding in non-euro-area countries and those that are in circulation in other euro-area countries. The analysis is based on various available statistics and, as an additional aid, on surveys (direct approaches). The observation period runs from 2002 to 2009. We discover that German euro banknotes to a total amount of approximately €220 billion are in circulation outside Germany. The lion's share of roughly €160 billion is in non-euro-area countries, with the remaining €60 billion in other euro-area countries. Thus, the volume of outstanding euro banknotes in Germany at the end of 2009 (around €130 billion) accounts for only roughly one-third of all banknotes issued by the Deutsche Bundesbank (€350 billion). In dem vorliegenden Papier versuchen wir, den Bestand der Euro-Banknoten zu ermitteln, der sich von der deutschen Banknotenemission im Ausland befindet. Dabei unterscheiden wir nach Beständen, die außerhalb des Euro-Währungsraums umlaufen, und solchen, die in anderen Ländern der EWU zirkulieren. Die Auswertung basiert auf verschiedenen verfügbaren Statistiken und Befragungen, die hilfsweise verwendet werden (direkte Ansätze). Der Untersuchungszeitraum geht von 2002 bis 2009. Wir finden heraus, dass insgesamt ca. 220 Mrd. € an deutschen Euro-Banknoten im Ausland umlaufen. Der größte Teil, etwa 160 Mrd. €, befindet sich außerhalb des Euro-Raums, der Rest - 60 Mrd. € - läuft in anderen EWU-Ländern um. Damit entspricht der Inlandsumlauf von Euro-Banknoten in Deutschland Ende 2009 (rd. 130 Mrd. €) nur rund einem Drittel aller von der Deutschen Bundesbank in Umlauf gegebenen Banknoten (350 Mrd. €).