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Abstract Background Risk-stratified treatment recommendations facilitate treatment decision-making that balances patient-specific risks and preferences. It is unclear if and how such recommendations are developed in clinical practice guidelines (CPGs). Our aim was to assess if and how CPGs develop risk-stratified treatment recommendations for the prevention or treatment of common chronic diseases. Methods We searched the United States National Guideline Clearinghouse for US, Canadian and National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (United Kingdom) CPGs for heart disease, stroke, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes that make risk-stratified treatment recommendations. We included only those CPGs that made risk-stratified treatment recommendations based on risk assessment tools. Two reviewers independently identified CPGs and extracted information on recommended risk assessment tools; type of evidence about treatment benefits and harms; methods for linking risk estimates to treatment evidence and for developing treatment thresholds; and consideration of patient preferences. Results We identified 20 CPGs that made risk-stratified treatment recommendations out of 133 CPGs that made any type of treatment recommendations for the chronic diseases considered in this study. Of the included 20 CPGs, 16 (80%) used evidence about treatment benefits from randomized controlled trials, meta-analyses or other guidelines, and the source of evidence was unclear in the remaining four (20%) CPGs. Nine CPGs (45%) used evidence on harms from randomized controlled trials or observational studies, while 11 CPGs (55%) did not clearly refer to harms. Nine CPGs (45%) explained how risk prediction and evidence about treatments effects were linked (for example, applying estimates of relative risk reductions to absolute risks), but only one CPG (5%) assessed benefit and harm quantitatively and three CPGs (15%) explicitly reported consideration of patient preferences. Conclusions Only a small proportion of CPGs for chronic diseases make risk-stratified treatment recommendations with a focus on heart disease and stroke prevention, diabetes and breast cancer. For most CPGs it is unclear how risk-stratified treatment recommendations were developed. As a consequence, it is uncertain if CPGs support patients and physicians in finding an acceptable benefit- harm balance that reflects both profile-specific outcome risks and preferences.

Abstract Background In research with long-term follow-up and repeated measurements, quick and complete response to questionnaires helps ensure a study’s validity, precision and efficiency. Evidence on the effect of non-monetary incentives on response rates in observational longitudinal research is scarce. Objectives To study the impact of two strategies to enhance completeness and efficiency in observational cohort studies with follow-up durations of around 2 years. Method and intervention In a factorial design, 771 children between 2 and 5 years old and their parents participating in a prospective cohort study were randomized to three intervention groups and a control group. Three types of lotteries were run: (i) daytrip tickets for the whole family to a popular amusement park if they returned all postal questionnaires, (ii) €12.50-worth gift vouchers for sending back the questionnaire on time after each questionnaire round and (iii) a combination of (i) and (ii). Main outcome measures Primary outcome was the proportion of participants who returned all questionnaires without any reminder. Secondary outcomes were ‘100% returned with or without reminder’, ‘probability of 100% non-response’, ‘probability of withdrawal’, ‘proportion of returned questionnaires’ and ‘overall number of reminders sent’. Statistical analysis After testing for interaction between the two lottery interventions, the two trials were analysed separately. We calculated risk differences (RD) and numbers needed to “treat” and their 95% confidence intervals. Results Daytrip nor voucher intervention had an effect on the proportion of participants who returned all questionnaires (RD −0.01; 95% CI-0.07 – 0.06) and (RD 0.02; 95% CI-0.50 – 0.08), respectively. No effects were found on the secondary outcomes. Conclusion Our findings do not support the idea that lottery-style incentives lead to more complete response to postal questionnaires in observational cohort studies with repeated data collection and follow-up durations of around 2 years.

Abstract Background Several quantitative approaches for benefit-harm assessment of health care interventions exist but it is unclear how the approaches differ. Our aim was to review existing quantitative approaches for benefit-harm assessment and to develop an organizing framework that clarifies differences and aids selection of quantitative approaches for a particular benefit-harm assessment. Methods We performed a review of the literature to identify quantitative approaches for benefit-harm assessment. Our team, consisting of clinicians, epidemiologists, and statisticians, discussed the approaches and identified their key characteristics. We developed a framework that helps investigators select quantitative approaches for benefit-harm assessment that are appropriate for a particular decisionmaking context. Results Our framework for selecting quantitative approaches requires a concise definition of the treatment comparison and population of interest, identification of key benefit and harm outcomes, and determination of the need for a measure that puts all outcomes on a single scale (which we call a benefit and harm comparison metric). We identified 16 quantitative approaches for benefit-harm assessment. These approaches can be categorized into those that consider single or multiple key benefit and harm outcomes, and those that use a benefit-harm comparison metric or not. Most approaches use aggregate data and can be used in the context of single studies or systematic reviews. Although the majority of approaches provides a benefit and harm comparison metric, only four approaches provide measures of uncertainty around the benefit and harm comparison metric (such as a 95 percent confidence interval). None of the approaches considers the actual joint distribution of benefit and harm outcomes, but one approach considers competing risks when calculating profile-specific event rates. Nine approaches explicitly allow incorporating patient preferences. Conclusion The choice of quantitative approaches depends on the specific question and goal of the benefit-harm assessment as well as on the nature and availability of data. In some situations, investigators may identify only one appropriate approach. In situations where the question and available data justify more than one approach, investigators may want to use multiple approaches and compare the consistency of results. When more evidence on relative advantages of approaches accumulates from such comparisons, it will be possible to make more specific recommendations on the choice of approaches.

Abstract The assessment of physical activity in healthy populations and in those with chronic diseases is challenging. The aim of this systematic review was to identify whether available activity monitors (AM) have been appropriately validated for use in assessing physical activity in these groups. Following a systematic literature search we found 134 papers meeting the inclusion criteria; 40 conducted in a field setting (validation against doubly labelled water), 86 in a laboratory setting (validation against a metabolic cart, metabolic chamber) and 8 in a field and laboratory setting. Correlation coefficients between AM outcomes and energy expenditure (EE) by the criterion method (doubly labelled water and metabolic cart/chamber) and percentage mean differences between EE estimation from the monitor and EE measurement by the criterion method were extracted. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed to pool the results across studies where possible. Types of devices were compared using meta-regression analyses. Most validation studies had been performed in healthy adults (n = 118), with few carried out in patients with chronic diseases (n = 16). For total EE, correlation coefficients were statistically significantly lower in uniaxial compared to multisensor devices. For active EE, correlations were slightly but not significantly lower in uniaxial compared to triaxial and multisensor devices. Uniaxial devices tended to underestimate TEE (−12.07 (95%CI; -18.28 to −5.85) %) compared to triaxial (−6.85 (95%CI; -18.20 to 4.49) %, p = 0.37) and were statistically significantly less accurate than multisensor devices (−3.64 (95%CI; -8.97 to 1.70) %, p

Abstract Background Many patients with chronic illness are limited in their physical activities. This systematic review evaluates the content and format of patient-reported outcome (PRO) questionnaires that measure physical activity in elderly and chronically ill populations. Methods Questionnaires were identified by a systematic literature search of electronic databases (Medline, Embase, PsychINFO & CINAHL), hand searches (reference sections and PROQOLID database) and expert input. A qualitative analysis was conducted to assess the content and format of the questionnaires and a Venn diagram was produced to illustrate this. Each stage of the review process was conducted by at least two independent reviewers. Results 104 questionnaires fulfilled our criteria. From these, 182 physical activity domains and 1965 items were extracted. Initial qualitative analysis of the domains found 11 categories. Further synthesis of the domains found 4 broad categories: 'physical activity related to general activities and mobility', 'physical activity related to activities of daily living', 'physical activity related to work, social or leisure time activities', and '(disease-specific) symptoms related to physical activity'. The Venn diagram showed that no questionnaires covered all 4 categories and that the '(disease-specific) symptoms related to physical activity' category was often not combined with the other categories. Conclusions A large number of questionnaires with a broad range of physical activity content were identified. Although the content could be broadly organised, there was no consensus on the content and format of physical activity PRO questionnaires in elderly and chronically ill populations. Nevertheless, this systematic review will help investigators to select a physical activity PRO questionnaire that best serves their research question and context.

Abstract Unbiased and frank discussion of study limitations by authors represents a crucial part of the scientific discourse and progress. In today's culture of publishing many authors or scientific teams probably balance 'utter honesty' when discussing limitations of their research with the risk of being unable to publish their work. Currently, too few papers in the medical literature frankly discuss how limitations could have affected the study findings and interpretations. The goals of this commentary are to review how limitations are currently acknowledged in the medical literature, to discuss the implications of limitations in biomedical studies, and to make suggestions as to how to openly discuss limitations for scientists submitting their papers to journals. This commentary was developed through discussion and logical arguments by the authors who are doing research in the area of hedging (use of language to express uncertainty) and who have extensive experience as authors and editors of biomedical papers. We strongly encourage authors to report on all potentially important limitations that may have affected the quality and interpretation of the evidence being presented. This will not only benefit science but also offers incentives for authors: If not all important limitations are acknowledged readers and reviewers of scientific articles may perceive that the authors were unaware of them. Authors should take advantage of their content knowledge and familiarity with the study to prevent misinterpretations of the limitations by reviewers and readers. Articles discussing limitations help shape the future research agenda and are likely to be cited because they have informed the design and conduct of future studies. Instead of perceiving acknowledgment of limitations negatively, authors, reviewers and editors should recognize the potential of a frank and unbiased discussion of study limitations that should not jeopardize acceptance of manuscripts.

Abstract Background Capturing dimensions of physical activity relevant to patients may provide a unique perspective for clinical studies of chronically ill patients. However, the quality of the development of existing instruments is uncertain. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the development process of patient-reported outcome (PRO) instruments including their initial validation to measure physical activity in chronically ill or elderly patient populations. Methods We conducted a systematic literature search of electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Psychinfo, Cinahl) and hand searches. We included studies describing the original development of fully structured instruments measuring dimensions of physical activity or related constructs in chronically ills or elderly. We broadened the population to elderly because they are likely to share physical activity limitations. At least two reviewers independently conducted title and abstract screening and full text assessment. We evaluated instruments in terms of their aim, items identification and selection, domain development, test-retest reliability, internal consistency, validity and responsiveness. Results Of the 2542 references from the database search and 89 from the hand search, 103 full texts which covered 104 instruments met our inclusion criteria. For almost half of the instruments the authors clearly described the aim of the instruments before the scales were developed. For item identification, patient input was used in 38% of the instruments and in 32% adaptation of existing scales and/or unsystematic literature searches were the only sources for the generation of items. For item reduction, in 56% of the instruments patient input was used and in 33% the item reduction process was not clearly described. Test-retest reliability was assessed for 61%, validity for 85% and responsiveness to change for 19% of the instruments. Conclusions Many PRO instruments exist to measure dimensions of physical activity in chronically ill and elderly patient populations, which reflects the relevance of this outcome. However, the development processes often lacked definitions of the instruments' aims and patient input. If PROs for physical activity were to be used in clinical trials more attention needs to be paid to the establishment of content validity through patient input and to the assessment of their evaluative measurement properties.

Abstract Background Several scores grade the severity of post-operative complications but it is unclear whether such scores truly reflect the perception of patients and practicing nurses and physicians. Study Design 227 patients, 143 nurses and 245 physicians independently rated the severity of 30 common post-operative complications on a numerical analogue scale from 0 (not severe at all) to 100 (extremely severe) while being blinded towards the Clavien-Dindo classification. We considered a difference in ratings of >10 to be clinically important in distinguishing between grades of severity and groups. We evaluated the level of reproducibility of responses by calculating intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and compared scores across severity grades and between groups using the generalized estimating equations. Results Reproducibility of the ratings was good for all three groups (ICCpatients 0.71 (95%-CI 0.64-0.76), ICCnurses 0.83 (0.78-0.87) and ICCphysicians 0.87 (0.83-0.90)). The participants' perceptions of the severity of complications reflected the Clavien-Dindo classification (median of grade I: 20 (IQR 10-30), grade II: 40 (31.3-52.5), grade IIIa: 50 (40-60), grade IIIb: 70 (60-75), grade IVa: 85 (80-90) and grade IVB: 95 (90-100)). Although patients' perception differed significantly from those of physicians (average difference -8.7 (95%-CI -10.4 to -6.9, p < 0.001) and nurses (difference -2.8 (-4.8 to -0.8, p = 0.007) they did not reach our thresholds for clinical importance. Conclusions The severity of post-operative complications is perceived similarly by patients, nurses and physicians and reflects the Clavien-Dindo classification well. Our results support the use of Clavien-Dindo classification system as part of the shared or informed decision making process.

Abstract Background Guidance documents for the development and validation of patient-reported outcomes (PROs) advise the use of conceptual frameworks, which outline the structure of the concept that a PRO aims to measure. It is unknown whether currently available PROs are based on conceptual frameworks. This study, which was limited to a specific case, had the following aims: (i) to identify conceptual frameworks of physical activity in chronic respiratory patients or similar populations (chronic heart disease patients or the elderly) and (ii) to assess whether the development and validation of PROs to measure physical activity in these populations were based on a conceptual framework of physical activity. Methods Two systematic reviews were conducted through searches of the Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, and Cinahl databases prior to January 2010. Results In the first review, only 2 out of 581 references pertaining to physical activity in the defined populations provided a conceptual framework of physical activity in COPD patients. In the second review, out of 103 studies developing PROs to measure physical activity or related constructs, none were based on a conceptual framework of physical activity. Conclusions These findings raise concerns about how the large body of evidence from studies that use physical activity PRO instruments should be evaluated by health care providers, guideline developers, and regulatory agencies.

Abstract Network meta-analysis, in the context of a systematic review, is a meta-analysis in which multiple treatments (that is, three or more) are being compared using both direct comparisons of interventions within randomized controlled trials and indirect comparisons across trials based on a common comparator. To ensure validity of findings from network meta-analyses, the systematic review must be designed rigorously and conducted carefully. Aspects of designing and conducting a systematic review for network meta-analysis include defining the review question, specifying eligibility criteria, searching for and selecting studies, assessing risk of bias and quality of evidence, conducting a network meta-analysis, interpreting and reporting findings. This commentary summarizes the methodologic challenges and research opportunities for network meta-analysis relevant to each aspect of the systematic review process based on discussions at a network meta-analysis methodology meeting we hosted in May 2010 at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Since this commentary reflects the discussion at that meeting, it is not intended to provide an overview of the field.

Abstract Background The complexity of chronic diseases is a challenge for investigators conducting randomized trials. The causes for this include the often difficult control for confounding, the selection of outcomes from many potentially important outcomes, the risk of missing data with long follow-up and the detection of heterogeneity of treatment effects. Our aim was to assess such aspects of trial design and analysis for four prevalent chronic diseases. Methods We included 161 randomized trials on drug and non-drug treatments for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus, stroke and heart failure, which were included in current Cochrane reviews. We assessed whether these trials defined a single outcome or several primary outcomes, statistically compared baseline characteristics to assess comparability of treatment groups, reported on between-group comparisons, and we also assessed how they handled missing data and whether appropriate methods for subgroups effects were used. Results We found that only 21% of all chronic disease trials had a single primary outcome, whereas 33% reported one or more primary outcomes. Two of the fifty-one trials that tested for statistical significance of baseline characteristics adjusted the comparison for a characteristic that was significantly different. Of the 161 trials, 10% reported a within-group comparison only; 17% (n = 28) of trials reported how missing data were handled (50% (n = 14) carried forward last values, 27% (n = 8) performed a complete case analysis, 13% (n = 4) used a fixed value imputation and 10% (n = 3) used more advanced methods); and 27% of trials performed a subgroup analysis but only 23% of them (n = 10) reported an interaction test. Drug trials, trials published after wide adoption of the CONSORT (CONsolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) statement (2001 or later) and trials in journals with higher impact factors were more likely to report on some of these aspects of trial design and analysis. Conclusion Our survey showed that an alarmingly large proportion of chronic disease trials do not define a primary outcome, do not use appropriate methods for subgroup analyses, or use naïve methods to handle missing data, if at all. As a consequence, biases are likely to be introduced in many trials on widely prescribed treatments for patients with chronic disease.

Abstract Background Patient-reported outcomes are measured in many epidemiologic studies using self- or interviewer-administered questionnaires. While in some studies differences between these administration formats were observed, other studies did not show statistically significant differences important to patients. Since the evidence about the effect of administration format is inconsistent and mainly available from cross-sectional studies our aim was to assess the effects of different administration formats on repeated measurements of patient-reported outcomes in participants with AIDS enrolled in the Longitudinal Study of Ocular Complications of AIDS. Methods We included participants enrolled in the Longitudinal Study of Ocular Complications in AIDS (LSOCA) who completed the Medical Outcome Study [MOS] -HIV questionnaire, the EuroQol, the Feeling Thermometer and the Visual Function Questionnaire (VFQ) 25 every six months thereafter using self- or interviewer-administration. A large print questionnaire was available for participants with visual impairment. Considering all measurements over time and adjusting for patient and study site characteristics we used linear models to compare HRQL scores (all scores from 0-100) between administration formats. We defined adjusted differences of ≥0.2 standard deviations [SD]) to be quantitatively meaningful. Results We included 2,261 participants (80.6% males) with a median of 43.1 years of age at enrolment who provided data on 23,420 study visits. The self-administered MOS-HIV, Feeling Thermometer and EuroQol were used in 70% of all visits and the VFQ-25 in 80%. For eight domains of the MOS-HIV differences between the interviewer- and self- administered format were < 0.1 SD. Differences in scores were highest for the social and role function domains but the adjusted differences were still < 0.2 SD. There was no quantitatively meaningful difference between administration formats for EuroQol, Feeling Thermometer and VFQ-25 domain scores. For ocular pain (VFQ-25), we found a statistically significant difference of 3.5 (95% CI 0.2, 6.8), which did, however, not exceed 0.2 SD. For all instruments scores were similar for the large and standard print formats with all adjusted differences < 0.2 SD. Conclusions Our large study provides evidence that administration formats do not have a meaningful effect on repeated measurements of patient-reported outcomes. As a consequence, longitudinal studies may not need to consider the effect of different administration formats in their analyses.

Abstract Background Measurement of self-efficacy requires carefully developed and validated instruments. It is currently unclear whether available self-efficacy instruments for chronic diseases fulfill these requirements. Our aim was to systematically identify all existing self-efficacy scales for five major chronic diseases and to assess their development and validation process. Methods We conducted a systematic literature search in electronic databases (MEDLINE, PSYCHINFO, and EMBASE) to identify studies describing the development and/or validation process of self-efficacy instruments for the five chronic diseases diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, arthritis, and heart failure. Two members of the review team independently selected articles meeting inclusion criteria. The self-efficacy instruments were evaluated in terms of their development (aim of instrument, a priori considerations, identification of items, selection of items, development of domains, answer options) and validation (test-retest reliability, internal consistency reliability, validity, responsiveness) process. Results Of 584 potentially eligible papers we included 25 (13 for diabetes, 5 for asthma, 4 for arthritis, 3 for COPD, 0 for heart failure) which covered 26 different self-efficacy instrument versions. For 8 instruments (30.8%), the authors described the aim before the scales were developed whereas for the other instruments the aim was unclear. In one study (3.8%) a priori considerations were specified. In none of the studies a systematic literature search was carried out to identify items. The item selection process was often not clearly described (38.5%). Test-retest reliability was assessed for 9 instruments (34.6%), validity using a correlational approach for 18 (69.2%), and responsiveness to change for 3 (11.5%) instruments. Conclusion The development and validation process of the majority of the self-efficacy instruments had major limitations. The aim of the instruments was often not specified and for most instruments, not all measurement properties that are important to support the specific aim of the instrument (for example responsiveness for evaluative instruments) were assessed. Researchers who develop and validate self-efficacy instruments should adhere more closely to important methodological concepts for development and validation of patient-reported outcomes and report their methods more transparently. We propose a systematic five step approach for the development and validation of self-efficacy instruments.

Abstract Background Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a systemic disease; morbidity and mortality due to COPD are on the increase, and it has great impact on patients' lives. Most COPD patients are managed by general practitioners (GP). Too often, GPs base their initial assessment of patient's disease severity mainly on lung function. However, lung function correlates poorly with COPD-specific health-related quality of life and exacerbation frequency. A validated COPD disease risk index that better represents the clinical manifestations of COPD and is feasible in primary care seems to be useful. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a practical COPD disease risk index that predicts the clinical course of COPD in primary care patients with GOLD stages 2–4. Methods/Design We will conduct 2 linked prospective cohort studies with COPD patients from GPs in Switzerland and the Netherlands. We will perform a baseline assessment including detailed patient history, questionnaires, lung function, history of exacerbations, measurement of exercise capacity and blood sampling. During the follow-up of at least 2 years, we will update the patients' profile by registering exacerbations, health-related quality of life and any changes in the use of medication. The primary outcome will be health-related quality of life. Secondary outcomes will be exacerbation frequency and mortality. Using multivariable regression analysis, we will identify the best combination of variables predicting these outcomes over one and two years and, depending on funding, even more years. Discussion Despite the diversity of clinical manifestations and available treatments, assessment and management today do not reflect the multifaceted character of the disease. This is in contrast to preventive cardiology where, nowadays, the treatment in primary care is based on patient-specific and fairly refined cardiovascular risk profile corresponding to differences in prognosis. After completion of this study, we will have a practical COPD-disease risk index that predicts the clinical course of COPD in primary care patients with GOLD stages 2–4. In a second step we will incorporate evidence-based treatment effects into this model, such that the instrument may guide physicians in selecting treatment based on the individual patients' prognosis. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Archive NCT00706602

Abstract Background The feasibility of randomized trials often depends on successful patient recruitment. Although numerous recruitment barriers have been identified it is unclear which of them complicate recruitment most. Also, most surveys have focused on the patients' perspective of recruitment barriers whereas the perspective of recruiting physicians has received less attention. Therefore, our aim was to conduct a postal survey among recruiting physicians of a multi-center trial to weigh barriers according to their impact on recruitment. Methods We identified any potential recruitment barriers from the literature and from our own experience with a multi-center trial of respiratory rehabilitation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We developed and pilot-tested a self-administered questionnaire where recruiting physicians were asked to express their agreement with statements about recruitment barriers on a Likert-type scale from 1 (full agreement with statement = very substantial recruitment barrier) to 7 (no agreement with statement = no recruitment barrier). Results 38 of 55 recruiting physicians returned questionnaires (69% response rate), of which 35 could be analyzed (64% useable response rate). Recruiting physicians reported that "time constraints" (median agreement of 3, interquartile range 2–5) had the most negative impact on recruitment followed by "difficulties including identified eligible patients" (median agreement of 5, IQR 3–6). Other barriers such as "trial design barriers", "lack of access to treatment", "individual barriers of recruiting physicians" or "insufficient training of recruiting physicians" were perceived to have little or no impact on patient recruitment. Conclusion Physicians perceived time constraints as the most relevant recruitment barrier in a randomized trial. To overcome recruitment barriers interventions, that are affordable for both industry- and investigator-driven trials, need to be developed and tested in randomized trials. Trial registration ISRCTN84612310

Abstract Background Most patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) receive inhaled long-acting bronchodilators and inhaled corticosteroids. Conventional meta-analyses established that these drugs reduce COPD exacerbations when separately compared with placebo. However, there are relatively few head-to-head comparisons and conventional meta-analyses focus on single comparisons rather than on a simultaneous analysis of competing drug regimens that would allow rank ordering of their effectiveness. Therefore we assessed, using a network meta-analytic technique, the relative effectiveness of the common inhaled drug regimes used to reduce exacerbations in patients with COPD. Methods We conducted a systematic review and searched existing systematic reviews and electronic databases for randomized trials of ≥ 4 weeks' duration that assessed the effectiveness of inhaled drug regimes on exacerbations in patients with stable COPD. We extracted participants and intervention characteristics from included trials and assessed their methodological quality. For each treatment group we registered the proportion of patients with ≥ 1 exacerbation during follow-up. We used treatment-arm based logistic regression analysis to estimate the absolute and relative effects of inhaled drug treatments while preserving randomization within trials. Results We identified 35 trials enrolling 26,786 patients with COPD of whom 27% had ≥ 1 exacerbation. All regimes reduced exacerbations statistically significantly compared with placebo (odds ratios ranging from 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64 to 0.80) for long-acting anticholinergics to 0.78 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.86) for inhaled corticosteroids). Compared with long-acting bronchodilators alone, combined treatment was not more effective (comparison with long-acting beta-agonists: odds ratio 0.93 [95% CI 0.84 to 1.04] and comparison with long-acting anticholinergics: odds ratio 1.02 [95% CI 0.90 to 1.16], respectively). If FEV1 was ≤ 40% predicted, long-acting anticholinergics, inhaled corticosteroids, and combination treatment reduced exacerbations significantly compared with long-acting beta-agonists alone, but not if FEV1 was > 40% predicted. This effect modification was significant for inhaled corticosteroids (P = 0.02 for interaction) and combination treatment (P = 0.01) but not for long-acting anticholinergics (P = 0.46). A limitation of this analysis is its exclusive focus on exacerbations and lack of FEV1 data for individual patients. Conclusion We found no evidence that one single inhaled drug regimen is more effective than another in reducing exacerbations. Inhaled corticosteroids when added to long-acting beta-agonists reduce exacerbations only in patients with COPD with FEV1 ≤ 40%.

Abstract Background Randomised trials comparing different drugs head-to-head are extremely valuable for clinical decision-making. However, it is scientifically and ethically sensible to demand strong evidence that a drug is effective by showing superiority over a placebo before embarking on head-to-head comparisons of potentially ineffective drugs. Our aim was to study the evolvement of evidence from placebo-controlled and head-to-head trials on the effects of antibiotics for the treatment of mild to moderate exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Methods We conducted a historical systematic review. Through electronic databases and hand-searches, we identified placebo-controlled and head-to-head antibiotic trials for the treatment of mild to moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations. We compared the numbers of patients recruited in placebo-controlled and head-to-head trials between 1957 and 2005. Using cumulative meta-analysis of placebo-controlled trials, we determined when, if ever, placebo-controlled trials had shown convincing evidence that antibiotics are effective in preventing treatment failure in patients with mild to moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations. Results The first head-to-head trial was published in 1963. It was followed by another 100 trials comparing different antibiotics in a total of 34,029 patients with mild to moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations. Over time, the cumulative odds ratio in placebo-controlled trials remained inconclusive throughout with odds ratios ranging from 0.39 (95% confidence intervals 0.04–4.22) to the most recent estimate (1995) of 0.81 (95% confidence intervals 0.52–1.28, P = 0.37). Conclusion Placebo-controlled trials do not support the use of antibiotics in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients with mild to moderate exacerbations. Conducting head-to-head trials is, therefore, scientifically and ethically questionable. This underscores the requirement to perform or study systematic reviews of placebo-controlled trials before conducting head-to-head trials.

Abstract Background Interpretation of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), commonly used to assess anxiety and depression in COPD patients, is unclear. Since its minimal important difference has never been established, our aim was to determine it using several approaches. Methods 88 COPD patients with FEV1 ≤ 50% predicted completed the HADS and other patient-important outcome measures before and after an inpatient respiratory rehabilitation. For the anchor-based approach we determined the correlation between the HADS and the anchors that have an established minimal important difference (Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire [CRQ] and Feeling Thermometer). If correlations were ≥ 0.5 we performed linear regression analyses to predict the minimal important difference from the anchors. As distribution-based approach we used the Effect Size approach. Results Based on CRQ emotional function and mastery domain as well as on total scores, the minimal important difference was 1.41 (95% CI 1.18–1.63) and 1.57 (1.37–1.76) for the HADS anxiety score and 1.68 (1.48–1.87) and 1.60 (1.38–1.82) for the HADS total score. Correlations of the HADS depression score and CRQ domain and Feeling Thermometer scores were < 0.5. Based on the Effect Size approach the MID of the HADS anxiety and depression score was 1.32 and 1.40, respectively. Conclusion The minimal important difference of the HADS is around 1.5 in COPD patients corresponding to a change from baseline of around 20%. It can be used for the planning and interpretation of trials.

Abstract Background Evaluation of how Motor Imagery and conventional therapy (physiotherapy or occupational therapy) compare to conventional therapy only in their effects on clinically relevant outcomes during rehabilitation of persons with stroke. Design Systematic review of the literature Methods We conducted an electronic database search in seven databases in August 2005 and also hand-searched the bibliographies of studies that we selected for the review. Two reviewers independently screened and selected all randomized controlled trials that compare the effects of conventional therapy plus Motor Imagery to those of only conventional therapy on stroke patients. The outcome measurements were: Fugl-Meyer Stroke Assessment upper extremity score (66 points) and Action Research Arm Test upper extremity score (57 points). Due to the high variability in the outcomes, we could not pool the data statistically. Results We identified four randomized controlled trials from Asia and North America. The quality of the included studies was poor to moderate. Two different Motor imagery techniques were used (three studies used audiotapes and one study had occupational therapists apply the intervention). Two studies found significant effects of Motor Imagery in the Fugl-Meyer Stroke Assessment: Differences between groups amounted to 11.0 (1.0 to 21.0) and 3.2 (-4 to 10.3) respectively and in the Action Research Arm Test 6.1 (-6.2 to 18.4) and 15.8 (0.5 to 31.0) respectively. One study did not find a significant effect in the Fugl-Meyer Stroke Assessment and Color trail Test (p = 0.28) but in the task-related outcomes (p > 0.001). Conclusion Current evidence suggests that Motor imagery provides additional benefits to conventional physiotherapy or occupational therapy. However, larger and methodologically sounder studies should be conducted to assess the benefits of Motor imagery.

Abstract Background Few epidemiologic studies have assessed health-related quality of life (HRQL) of asthma patients from a general population and it is unclear which instrument is best suitable for this purpose. We investigated the validity of the Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (AQLQ) and the SF-36 completed by individuals with asthma from the population-based SAPALDIA (Swiss study on air pollution and lung diseases in adults) cohort. Methods The study included 258 participants with a physician-diagnosed asthma who had completed the AQLQ and SF-36. We assessed floor and ceiling effects, internal consistency reliability and cross-sectional validity with a priori hypotheses that correlations between the specific HRQL domains (e.g. "symptoms" or "physical functioning") and the corresponding external validation measures (respiratory symptoms, need for doctor visits, limitation in activities due to asthma and lung function) would capture similar aspects and be correlated moderately (≥ 0.3) to strongly (≥ 0.5), whereas non-corresponding domains be correlated weakly with each other ( Results The AQLQ showed pronounced ceiling effects with all median domain scores above 6 (scores varied from 1–7). For the SF-36, ceiling effects were present in 5 out of 8 domains. Cronbach's alpha was >0.7 for all AQLQ and SF-36 domains. Correlations between the AQLQ domains "respiratory symptoms", "activity limitation" and "environmental exposure", and the validation measures ranged from 0.29–0.57. Correlations between the "emotional function" domain and the validation measures were also in this range (0.31–0.55) and not as low as we hypothesized. For the SF-36, correlations between "physical functioning" and "role physical", and the validation measures ranged from 0.25–0.56, whereas "role emotional" and "mental health" correlated with these measures from 0.01–0.23. Conclusion The AQLQ and the SF-36 showed fairly good internal consistency. Both instruments are limited by ceiling effects, but they appear less pronounced in the SF-36, which also shows a better discrimination between different aspects of HRQL. The SF-36 may therefore be a more valid measure of HRQL than the AQLQ when applied to individuals with asthma from the general population.

Abstract Background Experts defined a "minimum medical knowledge" (MMK) that people need for understanding typical signs and/or risk factors of four relevant clinical conditions: myocardial infarction, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and HIV/AIDS. We tested to what degree Swiss adult citizens satisfy this criterion for MMK and whether people with medical experience have acquired better knowledge than those without. Methods Questionnaire interview in a Swiss urban area with 185 Swiss citizens (median age 29 years, interquartile range 23 to 49, 52% male). We obtained context information on age, gender, highest educational level, (para)medical background and specific health experience with one of the conditions in the social surrounding. We calculated the proportion of MMK and examined whether citizens with medical background (personal or professional) would perform better compared to other groups. Results No single citizen reached the full MMK (100%). The mean MMK was as low as 32% and the range was 0 -72%. Surprisingly, multivariable analysis showed that participants with a university degree (n = 84; β (95% CI) +3.7% MMK (0.4–7.1) p = 0.03), (para)medical background (n = 34; +6.2% MMK (2.0–10.4), p = 0.004) and personal illness experience (n = 96; +4.9% MMK (1.5–8.2), p = 0.004) had only a moderately higher MMK than those without, while age and sex had no effect on the level of MMK. Interaction between university degree and clinical experience (personal or professional) showed no effect suggesting that higher education lacks synergistic effect. Conclusion This sample of Swiss citizens did not know more than a third of the MMK. We found little difference within groups with medical experience (personal or professional), suggesting that there is a consistent and dramatic lack of knowledge in the general public about the typical signs and risk factors of relevant clinical conditions.

Abstract Background For decades, there is an unresolved debate about adequate prescription of antibiotics for patients suffering from exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of this systematic review was to analyse randomised controlled trials investigating the clinical benefit of antibiotics for COPD exacerbations. Methods We conducted a systematic review of randomised, placebo-controlled trials assessing the effects of antibiotics on clinically relevant outcomes in patients with an exacerbation. We searched bibliographic databases, scrutinized reference lists and conference proceedings and asked the pharmaceutical industry for unpublished data. We used fixed-effects models to pool results. The primary outcome was treatment failure of COPD exacerbation treatment. Results We included 13 trials (1557 patients) of moderate to good quality. For the effects of antibiotics on treatment failure there was much heterogeneity across all trials (I2 = 82%). Meta-regression revealed severity of exacerbation as significant explanation for this heterogeneity (p = 0.016): Antibiotics did not reduce treatment failures in outpatients with mild to moderate exacerbations (pooled odds ratio 1.09, 95% CI 0.75–1.59, I2 = 18%). Inpatients with severe exacerbations had a substantial benefit on treatment failure rates (pooled odds ratio of 0.25, 95% CI 0.16–0.39, I2 = 0%; number-needed to treat of 4, 95% CI 3–5) and on mortality (pooled odds ratio of 0.20, 95% CI 0.06–0.62, I2 = 0%; number-needed to treat of 14, 95% CI 12–30). Conclusion Antibiotics effectively reduce treatment failure and mortality rates in COPD patients with severe exacerbations. For patients with mild to moderate exacerbations, antibiotics may not be generally indicated and further research is needed to guide antibiotic prescription in these patients.

Abstract Background Combining outcomes and the use of standardized effect measures such as effect size and standardized response mean across instruments allows more comprehensive meta-analyses and should avoid selection bias. However, such analysis ideally requires that the instruments correlate strongly and that the underlying assumption of similar responsiveness is fulfilled. The aim of the study was to assess the correlation between two widely used health-related quality of life instruments for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and to compare the instruments' responsiveness on a study level. Methods We systematically identified all longitudinal studies that used both the Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire (CRQ) and the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) through electronic searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL and PubMed. We assessed the correlation between CRQ (scale 1 – 7) and SGRQ (scale 1 – 100) change scores and compared responsiveness of the two instruments by comparing standardized response means (change scores divided by their standard deviation). Results We identified 15 studies with 23 patient groups. CRQ change scores ranged from -0.19 to 1.87 (median 0.35, IQR 0.14–0.68) and from -16.00 to 3.00 (median -3.00, IQR -4.73–0.25) for SGRQ change scores. The correlation between CRQ and SGRQ change scores was 0.88. Standardized response means of the CRQ (median 0.51, IQR 0.19–0.98) were significantly higher (p < 0.001) than for the SGRQ (median 0.26, IQR -0.03–0.40). Conclusion Investigators should be cautious about pooling the results from different instruments in meta-analysis even if they appear to measure similar constructs. Despite high correlation in changes scores, responsiveness of instruments may differ substantially and could lead to important between-study heterogeneity and biased meta-analyses.

Abstract Background Pharmacogenetic testing to individualize ACE inhibitor therapy remains controversial. We conducted a systematic review to assess the effect modification of the insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism of the ACE gene on any outcome in patients treated with ACE inhibitors for cardiovascular and/or renal disease. Methods Our systematic review involved searching six electronic databases, then contacting the investigators (and pharmaceutical industry representatives) responsible for the creation of these databases. Two reviewers independently selected relevant randomized, placebo-controlled trials and abstracted from each study details on characteristics and quality. Results Eleven studies met our inclusion criteria. Despite repeated efforts to contact authors, only four of the eleven studies provided sufficient data to quantify the effect modification by genotypes. We observed a trend towards better response to ACE inhibitors in Caucasian DD carriers compared to II carriers, in terms of blood pressure, proteinuria, glomerular filtration rate, ACE activity and progression to end-stage renal failure. Pooling of the results was inappropriate, due to heterogeneity in ethnicity, clinical domains and outcomes. Conclusion Lack of sufficient genetic data from the reviewed studies precluded drawing any convincing conclusions. Better reporting of genetic data are needed to confirm our preliminary observations concerning better response to ACE inhibitors among Caucasian DD carriers as compared to II carriers.

Abstract Background Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) represent a major burden for patients and health care systems. Respiratory rehabilitation may improve prognosis in these patients by addressing relevant risk factors for exacerbations such as low exercise capacity. To study whether respiratory rehabilitation after acute exacerbation improves prognosis and health status compared to usual care, we quantified its effects using meta-analyses. Methods Systematic review of randomized controlled trials identified by searches in six electronic databases, contacts with experts, hand-searches of bibliographies of included studies and conference proceedings. We included randomized trials comparing the effect of respiratory rehabilitation and usual care on hospital admissions, health-related quality of life (HRQL), exercise capacity and mortality in COPD patients after acute exacerbation. Two reviewers independently selected relevant studies, extracted the data and evaluated the study quality. We pooled the results using fixed effects models where statistically significant heterogeneity (p ≤ 0.1) was absent. Results We identified six trials including 230 patients. Respiratory rehabilitation reduced the risk for hospital admissions (pooled relative risk 0.26 [0.12–0.54]) and mortality (0.45 [0.22–0.91]). Weighted mean differences on the Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire were 1.37 (95% CI 1.13–1.61) for the fatigue domain, 1.36 (0.94–1.77) for emotional function and 1.88 (1.67–2.09) for mastery. Weighted mean differences for the St. Georges Respiratory Questionnaire total score, impacts and activities domains were -11.1 (95% CI -17.1 to -5.2), -17.1 (95% CI -23.6 to -10.7) and -9.9 (95% CI -18.0 to -1.7). In all trials, rehabilitation improved exercise capacity (64–215 meters in six-minute walk tests and weighted mean difference for shuttle walk test 81 meter, 95% CI 48–115). Conclusion Evidence from six trials suggests that respiratory rehabilitation is effective in COPD patients after acute exacerbation. Larger trials, however, are needed to further investigate the role of respiratory rehabilitation after acute exacerbation and its potential to reduce costs caused by COPD.

Abstract Background Whether responsiveness represents a measurement property of health-related quality of life (HRQL) instruments that is distinct from reliability and validity is an issue of debate. We addressed the claims of a recent study, which suggested that investigators could rely on internal consistency to reflect instrument responsiveness. Methods 516 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or knee injury participating in four longitudinal studies completed generic and disease-specific HRQL questionnaires before and after an intervention that impacted on HRQL. We used Pearson correlation coefficients and linear regression to assess the relationship between internal consistency reliability (expressed as Cronbach's alpha), instrument type (generic and disease-specific) and responsiveness (expressed as the standardised response mean, SRM). Results Mean Cronbach's alpha was 0.83 (SD 0.08) and mean SRM was 0.59 (SD 0.33). The correlation between Cronbach's alpha and SRMs was 0.10 (95% CI -0.12 to 0.32) across all studies. Cronbach's alpha alone did not explain variability in SRMs (p = 0.59, r2 = 0.01) whereas the type of instrument was a strong predictor of the SRM (p = 0.012, r2 = 0.37). In multivariable models applied to individual studies Cronbach's alpha consistently failed to predict SRMs (regression coefficients between -0.45 and 1.58, p-values between 0.15 and 0.98) whereas the type of instrument did predict SRMs (regression coefficients between -0.25 to -0.59, p-values between Conclusion Investigators must look to data other than internal consistency reliability to select a responsive instrument for use as an outcome in clinical trials.