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The impact of recessions on school enrollment is ambiguous. On one hand, recessions might increase the likelihood of enrollment due to decreasing opportunity costs of attending school. On the other hand, recessions might discourage enrollment due to reductions households have in funds available for education and deteriorating expectations about returns to education. In this paper, we empirically analyze how local unemployment rates affect enrollment decisions in Turkey during the period covering the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Our estimates show that the likelihood of enrollment in university undergraduate programs decreases during periods of and in regions experiencing higher unemployment, whereas the enrollment in high schools is not affected. This finding contradicts earlier findings of counter-cyclical enrollment in the context of developed countries. This contrast highlights the variations in the relative importance of the effect of income and expectations and in the potential long-term effects of recessions across countries. In particular, recessions might have longer-lasting negative effects in developing countries due to their adverse effect on human capital accumulation.

This paper examines the role of the extensive and intensive margins of work in the context of business cycles in emerging markets with a financial friction. The earlier literature analyzed the role of search frictions with only an extensive margin of work and showed that such a framework can address the distinguishable business-cycle characteristics of emerging markets such as highly volatile consumption, countercyclical net exports, highly volatile wages and pro-cyclical wages. One of our contributions is to show that in the presence of an endogenous hours choice, search frictions fail to predict not only these characteristics but also the positive co-movement of hours worked per worker and employment with output. This occurs due to the strong income effect on hours worked. On the other hand, introducing a financial friction, namely working capital, significantly increases the performance of the model and suggests frictions in both labor markets and financial markets are necessary for explaining emerging market business cycles.

Bu makale yükselen ekonomilerdeki konjonktürel dalgalanmaları açık ekonomi reel iş çevrim dinamik stokastik genel denge modeli ile açıklamaya çalışmaktadır. Önerilen model, standard açık ekonomi reel iş çevrim modelinin işletme sermayesi gereklerini ve iş piyasasındaki arama ve eşleştirme faaliyetleri kapsayacak şekilde genişletilmiştir. Modelin parametreleri 1987-2007 Meksika verilerine göre hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilensonuçlara göre işletme sermayesini modele dahil etmek, yükselen ekonomilerin konjonktür karşıtı reel faiz oranları, konjonktür karşıtı net ihracat üretim oranı ve tüketim ve gelirlerin yüksek oynaklıkları gibi önemli özelliklerinin açıklanabilmesini sağlamaktadır. Ek olarak, işletme sermayesi gerekliliğinin modele dahil edilmesi ile reel faiz oranları ve işsizlik arasındaki pozitif ilişki güçlenmektedir. Bu açıdan, işletme sermayesi gerekliliğini içeren modelin, finans sektöründe ortaya çıkan ve reel faiz oranlarını arttıran bir krizin reel sektörü olumsuz etkileyip işsizliğe neden olma sürecini açıklamada faydalı olacağı düşünülmektedir. This study examines the role of interest rate shocks in explaining emerging market business cycle characteristics in a small open economy real business cycle (SOE-RBC) model augmented with working capital requirement on firms' wage payments and searching and matching frictions in the labor market. The model is parameterized to quarterly Mexican data for the period 1987-2007. The results of the model withworking capital requirement indicate that the model can generate some important characteristics of emerging market business cycles such as countercyclical interest rates, countercyclical net exports to GDP ratio and higher volatilities of consumption and wages relative to GDP. Moreover, imposing working capital requirement on wage bill leads to a higher positive correlation between interest rates and unemployment,thus the proposed model can be used to analyze the effects of a financial crisis on real sector. 39

We document the implications of the 2014 revisions to the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey and offer guidance on how to handle the irregularities in population and unemployment statistics that resulted from two particular revisions. First, new population projections were adopted to assign survey weights. Second, a narrower definition of unemployment was adopted. We propose methods to adjust the survey weights for the pre-2014 period in order to discern changes in population statistics by age groups and regions without interruption over time and to calculate the unemployment rates according to both broader and narrower definitions since 2004. / Bu çalışmada TÜİK Hanehalkı İşgücü Anketi’ninde 2014 yılında yapılan düzenlemelerden kaynaklanan bazı sonuçları bulguluyor, nüfus ve işsizlik istatistiklerinde yapılan revizyonların özellikle ikisinden kaynaklanan sorunların nasıl ele alınması gerektiği hakkında yol gösteriyoruz. İlk revizyon, anket ağırlıklarının dayandırıldığı yeni nüfus projeksiyonlarının kabul edilmesidir. İkincisi ise, dar tanımlı bir işsizlik tanımına geçilmesidir. Bu çalışmada 2014 öncesindeki anket ağırlıklarını nüfus istatistiklerinde yaş bazında ve bölgesel olarak kopma olmayacak şekilde yeniden ayarlamak ve işsizlik oranlarını geniş ve dar tanımlı olarak 2004 yılından itibaren hesaplamak için yöntemler öneriyoruz., NA