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Despite common background La Niña conditions, Australia was very dry in November 2020 and wet in November 2021. This paper aims to provide an explanation for this difference. Large-scale drivers of Australian rainfall, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean dipole, Southern Annular Mode, and Madden–Julian oscillation, were examined but did not provide obvious clues for the differences. We found that the absence (in 2020) or presence (in 2021) of an enhanced thermal wind and subtropical jet over the Australian continent contributed to the rainfall anomalies. In general, La Niña sets up warm sea surface temperatures around northern Australia, which enhances the meridional temperature gradient over the continent and hence thermal wind and subtropical jet. In November 2021, these warm sea surface temperatures, coupled with a persistent midlatitude trough, which advected cold air over the Australian continent, led to an enhanced meridional temperature gradient and subtropical jet over Australia. The enhanced jet provided favorable conditions for the development of rain-bearing weather systems across Australia. In 2020, the continent was warm, displacing the latitude of maximum meridional temperature gradient south of the continent, resulting in fewer instances of the subtropical jet over Australia, and little development of weather systems over the continent. We highlight that although La Niña tilts the odds to wetter conditions for Australia, in any given month, variability in temperatures over the continent can contribute to subtropical jet variability and resulting rainfall in ways which confound the normal expectation from La Niña. Significance Statement: Forecasts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation are eagerly awaited, as the state of this climate driver has profound impacts on the likelihood of rainfall in regions around the world. While El Niño and La Niña do change rainfall likelihoods, the actual outcomes of these events are sometimes counter to expectation. This work explores one of the confounding factors to those expectations in the Australian context—the role of the meridional temperature gradient over the continent in modifying the storm track over Australia, which can disrupt the expected El Niño and La Niña teleconnections. We present case studies for two La Niña springs, highlighting that the Australian continent can help shape its own weather toward wetter or drier outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale cloud features referred to as cloudbands are known to be related to widespread and heavy rain via the transport of tropical heat and moisture to higher latitudes. The Australian northwest cloudband is such a feature that has been identified in simple searches of satellite imagery but with limited investigation of its atmospheric dynamical support. An accurate, long-term climatology of northwest cloudbands is key to robustly assessing these events. A dynamically based search algorithm has been developed that is guided by the presence and orientation of the subtropical jet stream. This jet stream is the large-scale atmospheric feature that determines the development and alignment of a cloudband. Using a new 40-yr dataset of cloudband events compiled by this search algorithm, composite atmospheric and ocean surface conditions over the period 1979–2018 have been assessed. Composite cloudband upper-level flow revealed a tilted low pressure trough embedded in a Rossby wave train. Composites of vertically integrated water vapor transport centered around the jet maximum during northwest cloudband events reveal a distinct atmospheric river supplying tropical moisture for cloudband rainfall. Parcel backtracking indicated multiple regions of moisture support for cloudbands. A thermal wind anomaly orientated with respect to an enhanced sea surface temperature gradient over the Indian Ocean was also a key composite cloudband feature. A total of 300 years of a freely coupled control simulation of the ACCESS-D system was assessed for its ability to simulate northwest cloudbands. Composite analysis of model cloudbands compared reasonably well to reanalysis despite some differences in seasonality and frequency of occurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the large-scale atmospheric dynamics influencing rainfall extremes in Tasmania, located within the Southern Hemisphere storm track. We characterize wet and dry multiday rainfall extremes in western and eastern Tasmania, two distinct climate regimes, and construct atmospheric flow composites around these extreme events. We consider the onset and decay of the events and find a link between Rossby wave trains propagating in the polar jet waveguide and wet and dry extremes across Tasmania. Of note is that the wave trains exhibit varying behavior during the different extremes. In the onset phase of rainfall extremes in western Tasmania, there is a coherent wave train in the Indian Ocean, which becomes circumglobal in extent and quasi-stationary as the event establishes and persists. Wet and dry extremes in this region are influenced by opposite phases of this circumglobal wave train pattern. In eastern Tasmania, wet extremes relate to a propagating wave train, which is first established in the Indian Ocean sector and propagates eastward to the Pacific Ocean sector as the event progresses. During dry extremes in eastern Tasmania, the wave train is first established in the Pacific Ocean, as opposed to Indian Ocean, and persists in this sector for the entire event, with a structure indicative of the Pacific–South American pattern. The findings regarding different wave train forms and their relationship to rainfall extremes have implications for extreme event attribution in other regions around the globe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This work examines the contributions of different synoptic types to rainfall variability and trends in southeast Australia, with a focus on the drought of 1996-2009. Rainfall in the Mallee region is used to characterize the southeast region. The reduction in rainfall in the Mallee region during the drought is about two-thirds composed of a reduction in rainfall from cutoff lows and about one-third due to a reduction in rainfall from frontal systems. The reduction in frontal rain is mostly due to a reduction in rain per frontal system, which is associated with a reduction of baroclinicity in the southeast and south of Australia. The reduction of cutoff rainfall is mostly due to a reduction in number of the most intense cutoff systems. The frequency of cutoff systems matches changes in blocking activity in the Tasman Sea region. Blocking has undergone a weak decline in the Tasman region over the period of the drought. Analysis of synoptic system contributions to the drought indicates that causal explanations of the drought should account for variation in cutoff systems and blocking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synoptic weather systems form an important part of the physical link between remote large-scale climate drivers and regional rainfall. A synoptic climatology of daily rainfall events is developed for the Central Wheatbelt of southwestern Australia over the April-October growing season for the years 1965-2009. The climatology reveals that frontal systems contribute approximately one-half of the rainfall in the growing season while cutoff lows contribute about a third. The ratio of frontal rainfall to cutoff rainfall varies throughout the growing season. Cutoff lows contribute over 40%% of rainfall in the austral autumn and spring, but this falls to about 20%% in August when frontal rainfall climbs to more than 60%%. The number of cutoff lows varies markedly from one growing season to another, but does not exhibit a significant long-term trend. The mean rainfall per cutoff system is also highly variable, but has gradually declined over the analysis period, particularly in the past decade. The decline in rainfall per frontal system is less significant. Cutoff low rainfall has contributed more strongly in percentage terms to the recent decline in rainfall in the Central Wheatbelt than the frontal component and accounts for more than half of the overall trend. Atmospheric blocking is highly correlated with rainfall in the region where cutoff low rainfall makes its highest proportional contribution. Hence, the decline in rain from cutoff low systems is likely to have been associated with changes in blocking and the factors controlling blocking in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The causes of rainfall variations in southeastern Australia associated with three key El Niño years (1982, 1997, and 2002) are explored. Whereas 1982 and 2002 were exceptionally dry years, 1997 had near-average rainfall. These variations in rainfall can be explained by changes in the behavior of cutoff low pressure systems. Although each year had a similar number of cutoff low events, 1997 had higher rainfall per cutoff low event when compared with the other years. In particular, rain in 1997 is attributable to five large wet events from cutoff low pressure systems. In each of these wet events, the moist air originated from the marine boundary layer off the coast of northeastern Australia. Cutoff lows in 1982 and 2002 were much drier and did not draw in moist air from the northeastern coast. In typical classifications, 1982 and 1997 are grouped together as “canonical” El Niños whereas 2002 is a Modoki El Niño. The results presented here imply that these groupings are not definitive in explaining variations in southeastern Australian rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work identifies and documents a suite of large-scale drivers of rainfall variability in the Australian region. The key driver in terms of broad influence and impact on rainfall is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is related to rainfall over much of the continent at different times, particularly in the north and east, with the regions of influence shifting with the seasons. The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is particularly important in the June–October period, which spans much of the wet season in the southwest and southeast where IOD has an influence. ENSO interacts with the IOD in this period such that their separate regions of influence cover the entire continent. Atmospheric blocking also becomes most important during this period and has an influence on rainfall across the southern half of the continent. The Madden–Julian oscillation can influence rainfall in different parts of the continent in different seasons, but its impact is strongest on the monsoonal rains in the north. The influence of the southern annular mode is mostly confined to the southwest and southeast of the continent. The patterns of rainfall relationship to each of the drivers exhibit substantial decadal variability, though the characteristic regions described above do not change markedly. The relationships between large-scale drivers and rainfall are robust to the selection of typical indices used to represent the drivers. In most regions the individual drivers account for less than 20% of monthly rainfall variability, though the drivers relate to a predictable component of this variability. The amount of rainfall variance explained by individual drivers is highest in eastern Australia and in spring, where it approaches 50% in association with ENSO and blocking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the investigation of cool season rainfall variability in southeastern Australia through the classification and characterization of the predominant types of synoptic systems. Types of synoptic systems include fontal systems, cut-off low systems, and other systems. As rainfall increases, cut-off systems and frontal system both dominate the rainfall in the region, show an enhancement of thermal gradient but differ in the mechanisms for intensification.

Abstract: Two approaches to obtaining more valuable seasonal climate forecasts for Australian agriculture are described. The first involves obtaining a better understanding of the climate system by exploring the individual synoptic weather events that make up seasonal climate. An examination of rainfall events in north-west Victoria indicates that there is one dominant synoptic system that is responsible for the majority of useful rainfall: the cutoff low. An exploration of the physics of these systems reveals that the moisture sources are most likely to be from the oceans north of Australia, while the frequency and intensity might be controlled by ocean temperatures to the south. The second approach involves an examination of the potential value of different forecast systems using a century-long simulation of the growth of a wheat crop in north-west Victoria. It is concluded that a perfect forecast of the growing season rainfall total is likely to provide less than half the potential value of an ideal forecast system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

An overview is presented of the analysis procedures and problems encountered in the FROST reanalysis of weather charts poleward of latitude 50°S carried out in Hobart by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, with advice from the Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Studies. A summary of findings as a result of the FROST exercise is given and some topics for research projects in the future are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A correction to the article "Indian and Pacific Ocean influences on southeast Australian drought and soil moisture," that was published in the 2011 issue is presented.