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Climate projections for continental Europe indicate drier summers, increased annual precipitation, and less snowy winters, which are expected to cause shifts in species' distributions. Yet, most regions/countries currently lack comprehensive climate‐driven biodiversity projections across taxonomic groups, challenging effective conservation efforts. To address this gap, our study evaluated the potential effects of climate change on the biodiversity of an alpine country of Europe, Switzerland. We used a state‐of‐the art species distribution modeling approach and species occurrence data that covered the climatic conditions encountered across the full species' ranges to help limiting niche truncation. We quantified the relationship between baseline climate and the spatial distribution of 7291 species from 12 main taxonomic groups and projected future climate suitability for three 30‐year periods and two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). Our results indicated important effects of projected climate changes on species' climate suitability, with responses varying by the taxonomic and conservation status group. The percentage of species facing major changes in climate suitability was higher under RCP8.5 (68%) compared to RCP4.5 (66%). By the end of the century, decreases in climate suitability were projected for 3000 species under RCP8.5 and 1758 species under RCP4.5. The most affected groups under RCP8.5 were molluscs, algae, and amphibians, while it was molluscs, birds, and vascular plants under RCP4.5. Spatially, by 2070–2099, we projected an overall decrease in climate suitability for 39% of the cells in the study area under RCP8.5 and 10% under RCP4.5, while projecting an increase for 50% of the cells under RCP8.5 and 73% under RCP4.5. The most consistent geographical shifts were upward, southward, and eastward. We found that the coverage of high climate suitability cells by protected areas was expected to increase. Our models and maps provide guidance for spatial conservation planning by pointing out future climate‐suitable areas for biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most plant conservation strategies generally overlook the intra-specific genetic diversity of crop gene pools. Focusing on forage crops and their wild relatives, we present a novel approach to address the conservation of these species on meadows. Two-thirds of Swiss agricultural land is green land, mostly used for forage purposes, and their genetic diversity is being threatened. We focused here on eight plant associations gathering at least 18 taxa considered priority crop wild relatives of forage crops. Since 2020, about 1,217 high-quality surfaces (representing 1,566 hectares) nationwide have been integrated into an innovative auction-based policy instrument dedicated to conserving these populations. Here, we report the benefits and hurdles of implementing this bottom-up approach and try to estimate the quality of conservation of the forage plants' CWR gene pool. Although we focus on the Swiss case, our approach to in situ conservation offers opportunities to effectively guide conservation in other contexts. We also discuss possible ways to improve CWR conservation policy, particularly the need to better consider the populations and habitat levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting contemporary and future species distributions is relevant for science and decision making, yet the development of high‐resolution spatial predictions for numerous taxonomic groups and regions is limited by the scalability of available modelling tools. Uniting species distribution modelling (SDM) techniques into one high‐performance computing (HPC) pipeline, we developed N‐SDM, an SDM platform aimed at delivering reproducible outputs for standard biodiversity assessments. N‐SDM was built around a spatially‐nested framework, intended at facilitating the combined use of species occurrence data retrieved from multiple sources and at various spatial scales. N‐SDM allows combining two models fitted with species and covariate data retrieved from global to regional scales, which is useful for addressing the issue of spatial niche truncation. The set of state‐of‐the‐art SDM features embodied in N‐SDM includes a newly devised covariate selection procedure, five modelling algorithms, an algorithm‐specific hyperparameter grid search, and the ensemble of small‐models approach. N‐SDM is designed to be run on HPC environments, allowing the parallel processing of thousands of species at the same time. All the information required for installing and running N‐SDM is openly available on the GitHub repository https://github.com/N‐SDM/N‐SDM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the ecospat package is to make available novel tools and methods to support spatial analyses and modeling of species niches and distributions in a coherent workflow. The package is written in the R language (R Development Core Team) and contains several features, unique in their implementation, that are complementary to other existing R packages. Pre-modeling analyses include species niche quantifications and comparisons between distinct ranges or time periods, measures of phylogenetic diversity, and other data exploration functionalities (e.g. extrapolation detection, ExDet). Core modeling brings together the new approach of ensemble of small models (ESM) and various implementations of the spatially-explicit modeling of species assemblages (SESAM) framework. Post-modeling analyses include evaluation of species predictions based on presence-only data (Boyce index) and of community predictions, phylogenetic diversity and environmentally-constrained species co-occurrences analyses. The ecospat package also provides some functions to supplement the 'biomod2' package (e.g. data preparation, permutation tests and cross-validation of model predictive power). With this novel package, we intend to stimulate the use of comprehensive approaches in spatial modelling of species and community distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models are increasingly used to address conservation questions, so their predictive capacity requires careful evaluation. Previous studies have shown how individual factors used in model construction can affect prediction. Although some factors probably have negligible effects compared to others, their relative effects are largely unknown., We introduce a general 'virtual ecologist' framework to study the relative importance of factors involved in the construction of species distribution models., We illustrate the framework by examining the relative importance of five key factors - a missing covariate, spatial autocorrelation due to a dispersal process in presences/absences, sample size, sampling design and modelling technique - in a real study framework based on virtual plants in a mountain landscape at regional scale, and show that, for the parameter values considered here, most of the variation in prediction accuracy is due to sample size and modelling technique. Contrary to repeatedly reported concerns, spatial autocorrelation has only comparatively small effects., This study shows the importance of using a nested statistical framework to evaluate the relative effects of factors that may affect species distribution models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim Concerns over how global change will influence species distributions, in conjunction with increased emphasis on understanding niche dynamics in evolutionary and community contexts, highlight the growing need for robust methods to quantify niche differences between or within taxa. We propose a statistical framework to describe and compare environmental niches from occurrence and spatial environmental data. Location Europe, North America and South America. Methods The framework applies kernel smoothers to densities of species occurrence in gridded environmental space to calculate metrics of niche overlap and test hypotheses regarding niche conservatism. We use this framework and simulated species with pre-defined distributions and amounts of niche overlap to evaluate several ordination and species distribution modelling techniques for quantifying niche overlap. We illustrate the approach with data on two well-studied invasive species. Results We show that niche overlap can be accurately detected with the framework when variables driving the distributions are known. The method is robust to known and previously undocumented biases related to the dependence of species occurrences on the frequency of environmental conditions that occur across geographical space. The use of a kernel smoother makes the process of moving from geographical space to multivariate environmental space independent of both sampling effort and arbitrary choice of resolution in environmental space. However, the use of ordination and species distribution model techniques for selecting, combining and weighting variables on which niche overlap is calculated provide contrasting results. Main conclusions The framework meets the increasing need for robust methods to quantify niche differences. It is appropriate for studying niche differences between species, subspecies or intra-specific lineages that differ in their geographical distributions. Alternatively, it can be used to measure the degree to which the environmental niche of a species or intra-specific lineage has changed over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In plants, an oligogene family encodes NADP-malic enzymes (NADP-me), which are responsible for various functions and exhibit different kinetics and expression patterns. In particular, a chloroplast isoform of NADP-me plays a key role in one of the three biochemical subtypes of C4 photosynthesis, an adaptation to warm environments that evolved several times independently during angiosperm diversification. By combining genomic and phylogenetic approaches, this study aimed at identifying the molecular mechanisms linked to the recurrent evolutions of C4-specific NADP-me in grasses (Poaceae). Genes encoding NADP-me (nadpme) were retrieved from genomes of model grasses and isolated from a large sample of C3 and C4 grasses. Genomic and phylogenetic analyses showed that 1) the grass nadpme gene family is composed of four main lineages, one of which is expressed in plastids (nadpme-IV), 2) C4-specific NADP-me evolved at least five times independently from nadpme-IV, and 3) some codons driven by positive selection underwent parallel changes during the multiple C4 origins. The C4 NADP-me being expressed in chloroplasts probably constrained its recurrent evolutions from the only plastid nadpme lineage and this common starting point limited the number of evolutionary paths toward a C4 optimized enzyme, resulting in genetic convergence. In light of the history of nadpme genes, an evolutionary scenario of the C4 phenotype using NADP-me is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]