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Objective: Low body fat and high physical activity levels are key lifestyle factors in cancer prevention, but the interplay of abdominal obesity and physical activity on cancer risk remains unknown. We explored individual and joint associations of waist circumference and physical activity with cancer risk., Methods: Using UK Biobank data (n=315 457), we categorised individuals according to WHO guideline thresholds for waist circumference and self-reported physical activity levels. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs of total cancer. The reference group comprised individuals with recommended levels of waist circumference (<88 cm for women and <102 cm for men) and physical activity (>10 metabolic equivalent of task hours/week). Furthermore, we estimated the proportion of cancers attributable to abdominal obesity and insufficient physical activity., Results: During a median follow-up period of 11 years (3 321 486 person-years), 29 710 participants developed any type of cancer. Participants not meeting the WHO guideline on waist circumference had increased cancer risk, even when sufficiently physically active according to the WHO (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.15). Similarly, individuals not achieving the WHO guideline for physical activity showed an elevated risk, even if they were abdominally lean (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.07). Not adhering to either guideline yielded the strongest increase in risk (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.19). We estimated that abdominal obesity coupled with insufficient physical activity could account for 2.0% of UK Biobank cancer cases., Conclusion: Adherence to both WHO guidelines for waist circumference and physical activity is essential for cancer prevention; meeting just one of these guidelines is insufficient., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2025. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Previous prediction models for adiposity gain have not yet achieved sufficient predictive ability for clinical relevance. We investigated whether traditional and genetic factors accurately predict adiposity gain., Methods: A 5-year gain of ≥5% in body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) from baseline were predicted in mid-late adulthood individuals (median of 55 years old at baseline). Proportional hazards models were fitted in 245,699 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort to identify robust environmental predictors. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) of 5 proxies of adiposity [BMI, WHR, and three body shape phenotypes (PCs)] were computed using genetic weights from an independent cohort (UK Biobank). Environmental and genetic models were validated in 29,953 EPIC participants., Findings: Environmental models presented a remarkable predictive ability (AUC BMI : 0.69, 95% CI: 0.68-0.70; AUC WHR : 0.75, 95% CI: 0.74-0.77). The genetic geographic distribution for WHR and PC1 (overall adiposity) showed higher predisposition in North than South Europe. Predictive ability of PRSs was null (AUC: ∼0.52) and did not improve when combined with environmental models. However, PRSs of BMI and PC1 showed some prediction ability for BMI gain from self-reported BMI at 20 years old to baseline observation (early adulthood) (AUC: 0.60-0.62)., Interpretation: Our study indicates that environmental models to discriminate European individuals at higher risk of adiposity gain can be integrated in standard prevention protocols. PRSs may play a robust role in predicting adiposity gain at early rather than mid-late adulthood suggesting a more important role of genetic factors in this life period., Funding: French National Cancer Institute (INCA&#95;N°2019-176) 1220, German Research Foundation (BA 5459/2-1), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (Miguel Servet Program CP21/00058)., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests L.M. discloses that an immediate family member holds stocks in Novo Nordisk. The other authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Background: Current evidence on associations between circulating bilirubin and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk is inconsistent., Methods: In this prospective study, we investigated associations of pre-diagnostic circulating levels of total and indirect bilirubin with CRC risk in 78,467 Korean adults aged 40-78 years at recruitment, considering potential non-linearity and sex differences. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations with CRC risk were estimated with Cox proportional hazard regression., Results: During a median 7.9-year follow-up, 539 incident CRC cases were recorded. In multivariable-adjusted models, higher levels of total bilirubin were associated with a 26% (CI: 42% to 7%) lower risk of CRC among men and women combined, comparing the highest with the lowest tertile (P-linear trend = 0.003). A U-shaped association was observed in men, with the lowest risk at approximately 0.8 mg/dL (=13.7 μmol/L) of total bilirubin (P for non-linearity = 0.01). Although the association was largely null in women, there was no evidence for effect modification by sex (P-interaction = 0.73). Associations between indirect bilirubin and CRC risk were similar., Conclusions: Higher circulating levels of total and indirect bilirubin were inversely associated with the risk of CRC among Korean adults. The associations were strongly inverse and U-shaped among men., Competing Interests: Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests. Ethics approval and consent to participate This research was conducted according to the principles expressed in the Declaration of Helsinki. All study participants provided informed consent. Ethical approval was obtained from the IRBs of Seoul National University and collaborating centres of the KoGES groups, and an additional ethical approval specifically for this project was obtained from the IRB of Seoul National University College of Medicine/Hospital (Reference no.: E1810-006-974). Consent for publication The manuscript does not contain any individual person’s data. All reasonable measures have been taken to ensure the anonymity of study participants., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Background: Physical activity reduces colorectal cancer risk, yet the diurnal timing of physical activity in colorectal cancer etiology remains unclear., Methods: This study used 24-h accelerometry time series from UK Biobank participants aged 42 to 79 years to derive circadian physical activity patterns using functional principal component analysis. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine associations with colorectal cancer risk., Results: Among 86,252 participants (56% women), 529 colorectal cancer cases occurred during a median 5.3-year follow-up. We identified four physical activity patterns that explained almost 100% of the data variability during the day. A pattern of continuous day-long activity was inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.89-0.99). A second pattern of late-day activity was suggestively inversely related to risk (HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.85-1.02). A third pattern of early- plus late-day activity was associated with decreased risk (HR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.80-0.99). A fourth pattern of mid-day plus night-time activity showed no relation (HR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.88-1.19). Our results were consistent across various sensitivity analyses, including the restriction to never smokers, the exclusion of the first 2 years of follow-up, and the adjustment for shift work., Conclusions: A pattern of early- plus late-day activity is related to reduced colorectal cancer risk, beyond the benefits of overall activity. Further research is needed to confirm the role of activity timing in colorectal cancer prevention., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: The allometric body shape index (ABSI) and hip index (HI), as well as multi-trait body shape phenotypes, have not yet been compared in their associations with inflammatory markers. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between novel and traditional anthropometric indexes with inflammation using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and UK Biobank cohorts., Methods: Participants from EPIC (n = 17,943, 69.1% women) and UK Biobank (n = 426,223, 53.2% women) with data on anthropometric indexes and C-reactive protein (CRP) were included in this cross-sectional analysis. A subset of women in EPIC also had at least one measurement for interleukins, tumour necrosis factor alpha, interferon gamma, leptin, and adiponectin. Four distinct body shape phenotypes were derived by a principal component (PC) analysis on height, weight, body mass index (BMI), waist (WC) and hip circumferences (HC), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). PC1 described overall adiposity, PC2 tall with low WHR, PC3 tall and centrally obese, and PC4 high BMI and weight with low WC and HC, suggesting an athletic phenotype. ABSI, HI, waist-to-height ratio and waist-to-hip index (WHI) were also calculated. Linear regression models were carried out separately in EPIC and UK Biobank stratified by sex and adjusted for age, smoking status, education, and physical activity. Results were additionally combined in a random-effects meta-analysis., Results: Traditional anthropometric indexes, particularly BMI, WC, and weight were positively associated with CRP levels, in men and women. Body shape phenotypes also showed distinct associations with CRP. Specifically, PC2 showed inverse associations with CRP in EPIC and UK Biobank in both sexes, similarly to height. PC3 was inversely associated with CRP among women, whereas positive associations were observed among men., Conclusions: Specific indexes of body size and body fat distribution showed differential associations with inflammation in adults. Notably, our results suggest that in women, height may mitigate the impact of a higher WC and HC on inflammation. This suggests that subtypes of adiposity exhibit substantial variation in their inflammatory potential, which may have implications for inflammation-related chronic diseases., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Body shape phenotypes combining multiple anthropometric traits have been linked to postmenopausal breast cancer (BC). However, underlying biological pathways remain poorly understood. This study investigated to what extent the associations of body shapes with postmenopausal BC risk is mediated by biochemical markers. The study included 176,686 postmenopausal women from UK Biobank. Four body shape phenotypes were derived from principal component (PC) analysis of height, weight, body mass index, waist and hip circumferences, and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). The four-way decomposition of the total effect was used to estimate mediation and interaction effects simultaneously as well as the mediated proportions. After 10.9 years median follow-up, 6,396 incident postmenopausal BC were diagnosed. There was strong evidence of positive associations between PC1 (general obesity) and PC2 (tall, low WHR), and BC risk. The association of PC1 with BC risk was positively mediated by testosterone and negatively by insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), with the overall proportion mediated (sum of the mediated interaction and pure indirect effect (PIE)) accounting for 11.4% (95% confidence intervals: 5.1 to 17.8%) and -12.2% (-20.5% to -4.0%) of the total effect, respectively. Small proportions of the association between PC2 and BC were mediated by IGF-1 (PIE: 2.8% (0.6 to 4.9%)), and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) (PIE: -6.1% (-10.9% to -1.3%)). Our findings are consistent with differential pathways linking different body shapes with BC risk, with a suggestive mediation through testosterone and IGF-1 in the relationship of a generally obese body shape and BC risk, while IGF-1 and SHBG may mediate a tall/lean body shape-BC risk association., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

It remains unknown whether adiposity subtypes are differentially associated with colorectal cancer (CRC). To move beyond single-trait anthropometric indicators, we derived four multi-trait body shape phenotypes reflecting adiposity subtypes from principal components analysis on body mass index, height, weight, waist-to-hip ratio, and waist and hip circumference. A generally obese (PC1) and a tall, centrally obese (PC3) body shape were both positively associated with CRC risk in observational analyses in 329,828 UK Biobank participants (3728 cases). In genome-wide association studies in 460,198 UK Biobank participants, we identified 3414 genetic variants across four body shapes and Mendelian randomization analyses confirmed positive associations of PC1 and PC3 with CRC risk (52,775 cases/45,940 controls from GECCO/CORECT/CCFR). Brain tissue-specific genetic instruments, mapped to PC1 through enrichment analysis, were responsible for the relationship between PC1 and CRC, while the relationship between PC3 and CRC was predominantly driven by adipose tissue-specific genetic instruments. This study suggests distinct putative causal pathways between adiposity subtypes and CRC.

Background: Whether cancer risk associated with a higher body mass index (BMI), a surrogate measure of adiposity, differs among adults with and without cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and/or type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unclear. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate separate and joint associations of BMI and CVD/T2D with the risk of cancer., Methods: This is an individual participant data meta-analysis of two prospective cohort studies, the UK Biobank (UKB) and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC), with a total of 577,343 adults, free of cancer, T2D, and CVD at recruitment. We used Cox proportional hazard regressions to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between BMI and incidence of obesity-related cancer and in turn overall cancer with a multiplicative interaction between BMI and the two cardiometabolic diseases (CMD). HRs and 95% CIs for separate and joint associations for categories of overweight/obesity and CMD status were estimated, and additive interaction was quantified through relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI)., Results: In the meta-analysis of both cohorts, BMI (per ~ 5 kg/m 2 ) was positively associated with the risk of obesity-related cancer among participants without a CMD (HR: 1.11, 95%CI: 1.07,1.16), among participants with T2D (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.05,1.18), among participants with CVD (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.11,1.24), and suggestively positive among those with both T2D and CVD (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.94,1.25). An additive interaction between obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m 2 ) and CVD with the risk of overall cancer translated into a meta-analytical RERI of 0.28 (95% CI: 0.09-0.47)., Conclusions: Irrespective of CMD status, higher BMI increased the risk of obesity-related cancer among European adults. The additive interaction between obesity and CVD suggests that obesity prevention would translate into a greater cancer risk reduction among population groups with CVD than among the general population., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: It is currently unknown whether ultra-processed foods (UPFs) consumption is associated with a higher incidence of multimorbidity. We examined the relationship of total and subgroup consumption of UPFs with the risk of multimorbidity defined as the co-occurrence of at least two chronic diseases in an individual among first cancer at any site, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes., Methods: This was a prospective cohort study including 266,666 participants (60% women) free of cancer, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes at recruitment from seven European countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Foods and drinks consumed over the previous 12 months were assessed at baseline by food-frequency questionnaires and classified according to their degree of processing using Nova classification. We used multistate modelling based on Cox regression to estimate cause-specific hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of total and subgroups of UPFs with the risk of multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases., Findings: After a median of 11.2 years of follow-up, 4461 participants (39% women) developed multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. Higher UPF consumption (per 1 standard deviation increment, ∼260 g/day without alcoholic drinks) was associated with an increased risk of multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.12). Among UPF subgroups, associations were most notable for animal-based products (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.12), and artificially and sugar-sweetened beverages (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.12). Other subgroups such as ultra-processed breads and cereals (HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.94, 1.00) or plant-based alternatives (HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.02) were not associated with risk., Interpretation: Our findings suggest that higher consumption of UPFs increases the risk of cancer and cardiometabolic multimorbidity., Funding: Austrian Academy of Sciences, Fondation de France, Cancer Research UK, World Cancer Research Fund International, and the Institut National du Cancer., Competing Interests: None of the authors declared a competing interest., (© 2023 Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: The benefit of physical activity (PA) for increasing longevity is well-established, however, the impact of diurnal timing of PA on mortality remains poorly understood. We aimed to derive circadian PA patterns and investigate their associations with all-cause mortality., Methods: We used 24 h PA time series from 96,351 UK Biobank participants aged between 42 and 79 years at accelerometry in 2013-2015. Functional principal component analysis (fPCA) was applied to obtain circadian PA patterns. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, we related the loading scores of these fPCs to estimate risk of mortality., Results: During 6.9 years of follow-up, 2,850 deaths occurred. Four distinct fPCs accounted for 96% of the variation of the accelerometry data. Using a loading score of zero (i.e., average overall PA during the day) as the reference, a fPC1 score of + 2 (high overall PA) was inversely associated with mortality (Hazard ratio, HR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.84-0.99), whereas a score of -2 (low overall PA) was associated with higher mortality (1.69; 95% CI: 1.57-1.81; p for non-linearity < 0.001). Significant inverse linear associations with mortality were observed for engaging in midday PA instead of early and late PA (fPC3) (HR for a 1-unit increase 0.88; 95% CI: 0.83-0.93). In contrast, midday and nocturnal PA instead of early and evening PA (fPC4) were positively associated with mortality (HR for a 1-unit increase 1.16; 95% CI: 1.08-1.25)., Conclusion: Our results suggest that it is less important during which daytime hours one is active but rather, to engage in some level of elevated PA for longevity., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Observational and genetic studies have linked different anthropometric traits to breast cancer (BC) risk, with inconsistent results. We aimed to investigate the association between body shape defined by a principal component (PC) analysis of anthropometric traits (body mass index [BMI], height, weight, waist-to-hip ratio [WHR], and waist and hip circumference) and overall BC risk and by tumor sub-type (luminal A, luminal B, HER2+, triple negative, and luminal B/HER2 negative). We performed two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses to assess the association between 188 genetic variants robustly linked to the first three PCs and BC (133,384 cases/113,789 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC)). PC1 (general adiposity) was inversely associated with overall BC risk (0.89 per 1 SD [95% CI: 0.81-0.98]; p -value = 0.016). PC2 (tall women with low WHR) was weakly positively associated with overall BC risk (1.05 [95% CI: 0.98-1.12]; p -value = 0.135), but with a confidence interval including the null. PC3 (tall women with large WHR) was not associated with overall BC risk. Some of these associations differed by BC sub-types. For instance, PC2 was positively associated with a risk of luminal A BC sub-type (1.09 [95% CI: 1.01-1.18]; p -value = 0.02). To clarify the inverse association of PC1 with breast cancer risk, future studies should examine independent risk associations of this body shape during childhood/adolescence and adulthood.

Background: Classical anthropometric traits may fail to fully represent the relationship of weight, adiposity, and height with cancer risk. We investigated the associations of body shape phenotypes with the risk of overall and site-specific cancers., Methods: We derived four distinct body shape phenotypes from principal component (PC) analysis on height, weight, body mass index (BMI), waist (WC) and hip circumferences (HC), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). The study included 340,152 men and women from 9 European countries, aged mostly 35-65 years at recruitment (1990-2000) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs)., Results: After a median follow-up of 15.3 years, 47,110 incident cancer cases were recorded. PC1 (overall adiposity) was positively associated with the risk of overall cancer, with a HR per 1 standard deviation (SD) increment equal to 1.07 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.08). Positive associations were observed with 10 cancer types, with HRs (per 1 SD) ranging from 1.36 (1.30-1.42) for endometrial cancer to 1.08 (1.03-1.13) for rectal cancer. PC2 (tall stature with low WHR) was positively associated with the risk of overall cancer (1.03; 1.02-1.04) and five cancer types which were not associated with PC1. PC3 (tall stature with high WHR) was positively associated with the risk of overall cancer (1.04; 1.03-1.05) and 12 cancer types. PC4 (high BMI and weight with low WC and HC) was not associated with overall risk of cancer (1.00; 0.99-1.01)., Conclusions: In this multi-national study, distinct body shape phenotypes were positively associated with the incidence of 17 different cancers and overall cancer., (© 2022. The Author(s).)